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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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  • Popular Post
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The Dixie chicks were wrong about Bush. He’s from Connecticut. Michael Bolton is the one who should be embarrassed.

Sassy Office Space GIF by 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment

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  • I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

  • Clintonaldo
    Clintonaldo

    Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

  • Old Freak Nasty
    Old Freak Nasty

    I am an American Indian, born in rural Pennsylvania while my dad attended Penn State for graduate school in the 70s.  He was accepted by all on campus, but encountered plenty of racism when outside of

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12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No offense, but I can only assume you’re being willfully obtuse here.

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16 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No offense, but I can only assume you’re being willfully obtuse here.

Can you be unwillfully obtuse?  I think that’s just being “dumb.”

27 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

can you also call my wife and tell her there’s a free beyoncé concert that night in downtown burbank?

I'm your Huckleberry.

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 


Winning vibes.

… if you’re playing musical chairs 

That's wild. Macomb loves them some Trump. They have a fucking parade for his ass a few miles north of Warren in Shelby Township every Sunday. Seriously. I don't even like driving through, it gives me the heebie-jeebies. 

1 minute ago, Baboontyme said:

That's wild. Macomb loves them some Trump. They have a fucking parade for his ass a few miles north of Warren in Shelby Township every Sunday. Seriously. I don't even like driving through, it gives me the heebie-jeebies. 

Macomb was about Trump +8. 

48 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'm not sure what a Tobias is, but there's a lot more of the people I'm referring to than Cleeti in this country.

Thank you for attempting to use the proper form of Cletus when referring to multiple numbers of them.

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Macomb was about Trump +8. 

My wife teaches in Macomb. 

I won't trash it too much because I think there are a couple of surly posters who seem like decent people that live there. But yeah. Lots of large pickup trucks. Lots of I seen. 

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

I don't understand why these numbers are different, even slightly.

There is always some chance that she would be elected, but die/become incapacitated before inauguration, even in the absence of fuckery. Also, the wins-election bet might pay sooner than becomes-president bet, so there would be a time value of money/interest value difference. So they might reasonably not be *exactly* the same.

 

23 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Half this thread (if not more) voted for Bush, but I don’t think a single one would stand up for him now. Most have realized they were duped by their upbringing and environment (although some still cling to some silly notion of fiscal conservatism or libertarianism). 

I feel embarrassed that at the time, I thought if Bush, McCain, and Romney were elected, the world would end.  Little did I know what was coming. 
I long for the day that the Republicans were at least sane. 

18 minutes ago, G650 said:

He does from some. I spend my days with poor white dudes among others, they aren't universally, or even majority, Trumpy.

Upper middle suburban white dudes who like F250s, or have construction companies, or work in finance or plenty of other cross sections are like 99% Trump true believers and there are millions of them.

 

Hell I posted the dude with the Trump Train Fountain speedboat in here, that's like the median Trump acolyte.

 

How many of you guys know anyone that was at the J6 riot? I talk to one almost every day in a professional capacity. Owns a small excavation and grading company, been raking it in past few years. Literally 100% opposite of people who have been left behind supposedly in this economy.

I'm not doubting your experience. I don't know anyone who went to the J6 riot. And I agree that wealthy White folk without college degrees break for Trump bigly.

What I do know is that I grew up in rural OK, and went to a small school (65 in my senior class) where most kids didn't go to college (3 of 65). Pre-Trump, no political discussion was had. Post-Trump, there are flags flying all over.

So those are our experiences. Data says Trump wins 60% of working class White folk in 2016 and 2020. I anticipate he'll get a similar percentage this year.

That why I said "it's both."

johnson has just admitted trump is killing the CHIPS and Science act ….

 

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Seriously, does he think Liz has, I dunno, bone spurs or something?

Maybe he’s thinking about all the deferments her father got that kept him out of Vietnam and just got confused. 

Edit.  Beaten to the punch.

Edited by Francisco 2.0

  • Popular Post

Good lord. By Monday night we'll be seeing "Trump accidentally reveals plan to give every American very advanced AIDS". 

5 minutes ago, quigley said:

I'm not doubting your experience. I don't know anyone who went to the J6 riot. And I agree that wealthy White folk without college degrees break for Trump bigly.

What I do know is that I grew up in rural OK, and went to a small school (65 in my senior class) where most kids didn't go to college (3 of 65). Pre-Trump, no political discussion was had. Post-Trump, there are flags flying all over.

So those are our experiences. Data says Trump wins 60% of working class White folk in 2016 and 2020. I anticipate he'll get a similar percentage this year.

That why I said "it's both."

I'm certainly not saying the uneducated whites aren't breaking Trump, but what I see is people underestimating just how many middle class suburbanites exist.

 

At any rate, it's an interesting conversation but now its time for me to retire and read a bit before bed so I'll leave it here. I have full faith the night shift will have much for us to ponder in the morning.

  • Popular Post
Spoiler

Today, in his always interesting Substack, Silver Bullet,

@NateSilver538

took time off from his Twitter spat with Bette Midler to write about me. Nate correctly noted the unreliability of early voting in predicting results, a lesson that anyone who has worked in campaigns has probably learned, often painfully. Nate was taking me to task for a tweet in which I pointed out that so far in early voting, 10% more women had voted than men, and the average in final results since 2004 has been a 4% gender gap. I did not mention party breakdown, but Nate used it as a straw man to attack those making assumptions about final partisan turnout based on early voting. He’s correct. Given many factors, including the oddity of a Covid 2020 election, it’s treacherous ground to use early voting to predict the final party breakdown of an electorate. But even the most crackpot of Republican sponsored polls show Harris winning women by a larger margin than she is losing men. If that holds and more women vote than men, the math does not seem complicated. I suspect that Nate has me in his sights because I Tweeted that he is working for Polymarket and that a Peter Thiel fund is Polymarket’s lead investor. This simple stating of previously reported facts seemed to set Nate off. He sent me a direct message on Twitter declaring, “You picked the wrong guy to fuck with,” which, I assume, given his apparent interest in cinema, was a line from one of his favorite gangster films. He then proceeded to threaten libel action. Over at the Lincoln Project, we routinely get death threats, mostly more humorous than troubling, and Donald Trump tried to get the DOJ to shut down the Lincoln Project, so I’m not sure he realized that the huffing and puffing about an imaginary libel suit might not have his desired chilling effect. I’ve always enjoyed the oddball characters that float around the political world, though it was more fun before they started running the Trump Republican party and, for four years, the country. It’s easy to imagine Rick Moranis playing Nate as the swashbuckling nerd who takes his mastery of spreadsheets to the poker tables of Vegas. I confess to having a prejudice in favor of political pundits and prognosticators who have worked in politics, but that’s as unfair an assumption as claiming only the opinions and analysis of those who have played a sport are valid. I’ve enjoyed Nate’s writings and found his first book, "The Signal and the Noise," well written and informative. He’s a good writer. In his recent Op-ed in the NYT about the dangers of relying on gut instincts to predict election outcomes, I thought his musings on his neighborhood in New York to have the observant qualities of good travel writing, a genre I admire so much that my first three books were travel books. The 2024 presidential race has been very stable since the VP became the nominee. Trump reliably clocks in around 47% and the difference in credible polling only reflects the percentage that the VP is receiving of the remaining 53%. When I look at the wildly fluctuating lines in Nate’s model of likely winner, it strikes me as amusingly silly, though perhaps that’s my lack of any interest in gambling. As to who should have received a 1991 Academy Award for Best Actress, I have no dog in that fight and will leave it to Nate and Bette Midler.

 

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

So we're all going to our local Chili's on Wednesday in solidarity if the election goes our way, correct?

If I see any of you, I'll knowingly nod.

wife said tater tot casserole on Tuesday night, Chili's on Wednesday.

13 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

image.thumb.png.ff0d61cd94f119248e76e7f305d13aee.png

Is it pronounced De Penis or Deep Anus?

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Bingo at the senior home has more heat.  

I was thinking earlier that it might be a good idea to have my posting privileges suspended late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Because I guarantee you that Trump will declare victory, and will say something along the lines of "Wait until you see what happens on January 6th!". 

More importantly, AOC is looking shockingly rude on MSNBC right now.

Edited by Red Five

4 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

He sent me a direct message on Twitter declaring, “You picked the wrong guy to fuck with,” which, I assume, given his apparent interest in cinema, was a line from one of his favorite gangster films. He then proceeded to threaten libel action.

Pee Wee Lol GIF

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Don’t listen to Trumpanzees.  They are being gaslighted every which way by Fox News and pumped full of disinformation on social media.

Listen to Donald Trump himself.  He will tell you everything you need to know.

His meltdowns on social media the past two days, his raging about how Liz Cheney should be shot, these are not the ramblings of a man who thinks he’s winning.

The media wants a horse race, not a blowout.  Everybody tunes out on a blowout.

I'm here for the Harris blowout. I'll tune in and pop the champagne!

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Yeah. Math isn’t my strong suit lol 

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8 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'm certainly not saying the uneducated whites aren't breaking Trump, but what I see is people underestimating just how many middle class suburbanites exist.

 

At any rate, it's an interesting conversation but now its time for me to retire and read a bit before bed so I'll leave it here. I have full faith the night shift will have much for us to ponder in the morning.

It's okay to say "we agree."

20 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

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I’ve been laughing solidly for 2 minutes, so far 

5 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

So, she has a URL, which I thought I might visit to see what she is promoting, but alas:

 

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57 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No offense, but I can only assume you’re being willfully obtuse here.

No offense but I can only assume your brain is fried from too much lsd or something else. 

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6 minutes ago, Red Five said:More importantly, AOC is looking shockingly rude on MSNBC right now.

There’s a place in this world for men who can’t or won’t follow the rules. 
 

also, please post as I’m at THE WORLDS MOS BORING HS FOOTBALL GAME right now. And I was at the Jets game last as well

17 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Good lord. By Monday night we'll be seeing "Trump accidentally reveals plan to give every American very advanced AIDS". 

And it won't change one fucking vote

25 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

johnson has just admitted trump is killing the CHIPS and Science act ….

Video

 

1 minute ago, Pancho said:


 

I'm sorry none of us care about Nevada, Jon.

2 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

And it won't change one fucking vote

MAGAs will be walking around San Fran, stabbing themselves with needles and having unprotected gay sex, to get it 

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

MAGAs will be walking around San Fran, stabbing themselves with needles and having unprotected gay sex, to get it 

well, it's either that or watch the San Jose Sharks.....

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I'm sorry none of us care about Nevada, Jon.

For all his doomsaying:

Image

Lol the CEO of Susquehanna polling just got into a Twitter spat with Adam Carlson because Susquehanna RT’d Kari Lake cheering on of their polls. Very professional and nonpartisan…. 🙄 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No offense, but I can only assume you’re being willfully obtuse here.

No, he's not.  You are doing what a lot of people do: you see a problem and you attribute the cause as something you see as deficient.  But, if there was really a cause and effect between these problems and that deficiency, if Trump was winning this voting block due to economic policy, nobody would be talking about "white working class" - it would just be "working class."  Full stop.  It's absurd to pretend that this is an economic policy issue.  I would love to see more progressive policies.  But, the House candidate my wife worked for four years ago was a Medicare for All proponent, in a district that went to Biden, and she lost by 5 points.  The people prefer Biden's moderate economic policies.  It's why you don't hear M4A discussed at all this cycle.  It lost.  In part, because the blue collar labor union members were against it.  

7 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I'm sorry none of us care about Nevada, Jon.

I care about NV. We need Jacky Rosen to win the Senate seat in NV.

As has been stated by @Js1 and several others. Ticket-splitting is becoming less common. Would rather not have to rely on Trump-Rosen ticket-splitters to get Jacky back to Washington.

A good Harris performance in NV makes me feel better about Rosen's chances. (I think Rosen and Harris win with Rosen having a bigger margin).

  • Popular Post

I don't know if Shapiro could have done this. Maybe I am giving him short shrift, but Walz is still rocking.

100 hours. Spoken like a true NCO

 

Edited by cactusflinthead
Moar

Georgia EV - nearly 55% turnout already 

IMG_2963.thumb.png.6a22d1962e73f4d36f8266bb61966882.png

18-24 - nice 

Edited by Js1

39 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

johnson has just admitted trump is killing the CHIPS and Science act ….

 

This is the shit I don’t understand. Ignoring the inevitable Brisket post. Why would anyone want to repeal that act? There is no upside, even political or perception based, to gutting that act and costing jobs. Even billionaires are making bank off that act. So why would it even be a discussion?

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