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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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24 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Kamala is at the gates

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7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

I thought bastrop was trump country ?

 

For some reason this got me, and not for any particular reason. I just got really sad thinking that women are going to save democracy, and it came to be that way because we treat them like fucking shitty second class citizens. Gimme 100 years of matriarchy. Maybe with Mayor Pete sprinkled in. 

7 hours ago, Chopper said:

Is that Iowa poll real? How could it be? Hmmm...

 

image.thumb.png.7f93b0e652334ed057b057907ed439f0.png

Yeah thinking that Dobbs is old news is a huuuuuge mistake.  It's a bit lower profile, but it's now at the state phase and getting real.

I can't wait for some backlash in state elections, where the christofascism has been more subtle and effective.

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5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

image.gif.8090b3d9edb8cd1f72578cf12b4f3365.gif

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She’s up by more than 3 if she has cut his lead among white people in half.  He has no chance with those numbers.

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43 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

There is zero chance both Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied. No way. And especially not after the Iowa poll. 

 

Those are fantastic for her 

PA/MI aren’t ties. Michigan will be the bluest of the blue wall states. 

100% everything breaking late for her. Reverse 2016, optically 

Their argument this morning?

Kamala’s cold open skit on SNL was plagiarized because turnip did it first. This means she the campaign is in frantic mode because she has nothing left for the voters.

 

 

You cannot make this shit up. 

Also that NYT result would be 274 Harris with MI/PA in neither column. Bc Georgia + NC is 32 EVs combined. 

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Their argument this morning?

Kamala’s cold open skit on SNL was plagiarized because turnip did it first. This means she the campaign is in frantic mode because she has nothing left for the voters.

 

 

You cannot make this shit up. 

Also find it quite amusing that for all the Federal agencies and regulatory bodies they want to dismantle with Project 2025...they absolutely love the FCC right now and are begging them to drop the hammer on NBC...

1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

Trump has hosted SNL twice, once during his 2015 campaign.

Candidates have made cameo appearances on SNL but I’m not aware of any other candidate that has hosted.

Trump calls into Fox & Friends seemingly weekly.

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31 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Harris is not losing white women 

14 hours ago, HenryJames said:

We should just go ahead and put fluoride into gasoline.

fify

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Harris is not losing white women 

I agree with you but...

- Hillary Clinton lost white women

- it's a poll --> and polls suck

22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Those are fantastic for her 

PA/MI aren’t ties. Michigan will be the bluest of the blue wall states. 

100% everything breaking late for her. Reverse 2016, optically 

The LEAST LIKELY outcome this time is 5 of 7 states within a point or two (as the polling averages have them). Herding + bad process.

As you've said, 1/3 of the total ballots have been cast and > 90% people say they know who their voting for. There aren't 4-5 point swings to be made. This last minute publishing of a Harris push is for clicks.

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Playing to the whistle 

 

Edited by cactusflinthead

Just now, TexasHooch said:

image.png.0f919647645c425e9127bbea2e2c506f.png

There's a strong argument to be made that Harris/Walz left bushels on the field by not making a bigger deal about how Trump's tariff and trade policies in general will destabilize farm commodity prices.

As I'm sure it's been mentioned, if Harris is close in IA, it's a harbinger that WI and OH and PA are all really good.

39 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

image.gif.8090b3d9edb8cd1f72578cf12b4f3365.gif

This is right

17 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Harris is not losing white women 

You have more faith in white women than I do. Unfortunately. 

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

Brendan Thomas Carr (born January 5, 1979) is an American lawyer who has served as a member of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) since 2017.[7] Appointed to the position by Donald Trump, Carr previously served as the agency's general counsel and as an aide to FCC commissioner Ajit Pai. In private practice, Carr formerly worked as a telecommunications attorney at Wiley Rein.[8]

Carr supports changes to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act and opposes net neutrality protections.[9][10] Carr is noted for his support for banning TikTok on national security grounds.[11][12] In office, Carr has been noted for being unusually vocal about public policy issues for a regulatory appointee, accusing House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff of overseeing a “secret and partisan surveillance machine”.[13]

Serious question: can we impeach these fuckers? 

How can we talk of "equal time" in a world where Fox has existed for 35 years?

2 minutes ago, quigley said:

There's a strong argument to be made that Harris/Walz left bushels on the field by not making a bigger deal about how Trump's tariff and trade policies in general will destabilize farm commodity prices.

As I'm sure it's been mentioned, if Harris is close in IA, it's a harbinger that WI and OH and PA are all really good.

@Al_4_ISU is this true? I agree that the tariff effect on farmers hasn't been much of a national argument, but what's it like on the ground there?

58 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah thinking that Dobbs is old news is a huuuuuge mistake.  It's a bit lower profile, but it's now at the state phase and getting real.

I can't wait for some backlash in state elections, where the christofascism has been more subtle and effective.

So much gold this morning.

FL, I see you.

1 hour ago, Post Oak said:

Kamala is at the gates

I mean, it's Dobbs ("dog catches car"), but also, hopefully, America has figured out that they can have reality TV on TV and not in politics.

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

For some reason this got me, and not for any particular reason. I just got really sad thinking that women are going to save democracy, and it came to be that way because we treat them like fucking shitty second class citizens. Gimme 100 years of matriarchy. Maybe with Mayor Pete sprinkled in. 

It'll be a new world after this, because if you treat women poorly politically you do so at your own peril.  Once any political group realizes that they have power, they don't give it up, and the biggest take away from all this is going to be the realized power of women in politics; not just as a leader or leaders, but as a political group.  Moving forward, when candidates are selected, legislation, etc, the very first question Democrats need to ask is, "are women going to be happy with this?"  

I will tell you who is unequivocally going to struggle with this, Republicans.  

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17 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

image.png.0f919647645c425e9127bbea2e2c506f.png

 

"Totally wrong the last time"

[checks notes]

whats-the-big-deal-with-the-selzer-poll-

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

A last bit of food for thought, what if Selzer is wrong?  But not in the way we all knee-jerked to, i.e. within her margin or error of 3; instead of 47 in Iowa it'd be 50.  

 

Now that friends, would be a lot of fun.  

whats-the-big-deal-with-the-selzer-poll-

 

Don't care. If Selzer's off by 5 and Trump wins IA by 2, Harris will win WI, PA, and maybe OH (!?!?)

More importantly, Dems win Senate races in WI, PA, MI, OH. Osborn in NE has a good shot too based on the IA.

GOP needs to win Senate races in NE, MT, TX, and FL. Those aren't all independent of each other so I'd put the likelihood of Senate staying 50-50 as better than even.

Edited by quigley

  • Popular Post
6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It'll be a new world after this, because if you treat women poorly politically you do so at your own peril.  Once any political group realizes that they have power, they don't give it up, and the biggest take away from all this is going to be the realized power of women in politics; not just as a leader or leaders, but as a political group.  Moving forward, when candidates are selected, legislation, etc, the very first question Democrats need to ask is, "are women going to be happy with this?"  

I will tell you who is unequivocally going to struggle with this, Republicans.  

Pelosi's was most effective House leader since ??? forever???

She's a boss. Her words to Biden set this thing up. I would love for her to be remember as the greatest legislator of this generation (over that ghoul from KY).

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/swing-state-mrp-mega-poll-00186941

 

Quote

The British are a-coming. This time, they’re wielding a new polling technique with a huge survey sample that some say is more accurate than anything currently in widespread use in U.S. politics — and it’s tentatively predicting a Kamala Harris win.

Focaldata, a U.K. polling company, questioned more than 31,000 voters across the United States over the past month for an innovative type of survey called “MRP” that has become influential in Britain in recent years. The results were shared exclusively with POLITICO.

 

Quote

Combining the MRP results with their large-scale online swing state polling Focaldata assesses Harris is likely to take Michigan, with a lead of nearly 5 points, Nevada with a lead of about 2 points over Trump, and with a slight edge in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The Focaldata research suggests Trump just scraping past Harris in Georgia and North Carolina. The polling data and MRP modeling are split on Arizona.

 

Quote

Harris’ advantage comes in part from her strong appeal to older white women, a historically right-leaning group. Trump has made gains with younger Black and Hispanic men.

“Our MRP model has shown a Trump win throughout the campaign and only in the final update has it nudged Democrat,” said James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer.

Even though the research points to a Democratic victory emerging from Tuesday’s election, the researchers remain wary of nailing their colors to the mast. That’s not unusual in a contest that’s become defined by the phrase “toss-up.”

 

Spoiler

“We are ‘lean Democrat’, but only by the barest of margins,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO. “Even a polling error a third of the size seen in 2016 and 2020 would put Trump back in the White House.”

MRP — which stands for “multilevel regression and post-stratification” — is a statistical model that pollsters use to estimate state-level election results. It takes a massive nationwide sample and then uses demographic data to estimate seat or state-level outcomes.

The method — which gained the moniker of “mega poll” — burst onto the scene in the U.K. in 2017 by correctly predicting Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in Parliament at a time when most polls suggested she would win big.

At this year’s general election in the U.K., MRP surveys also dominated the polling coverage, with many predicting that Keir Starmer’s Labour would win a huge victory and the Conservatives would crash to a historic defeat. Even so, the MRP projections in the U.K. were mixed, with some a long way off the final election results.

Backers of the method say it is likely to be even more effective in the U.S. where there are only 50 states. In Britain, the MRP model needs to produce forecasts for 650 constituencies represented in Westminster’s parliament, a more complicated operation.

Focaldata has been working on the U.S. polls for months. According to swing state polls, conducted online among 10,992 voters earlier in October, Trump had a big lead on handling the most important issues facing the nation. Among the four in 10 voters who chose immigration as a top issue, Trump led Harris by 74 points as the best placed candidate to handle it.

He was also ahead on how he would deal with inflation and the cost of living, jobs, tax crime and national security. The vice president led Trump on climate change, abortion, democracy and healthcare, among other issues. But Harris’ strengths lay in areas that voters less frequently named as the top issues facing the country.

Focaldata’s two data streams – state-level polling and MRP modeling – produced marginally different results. The MRP results were slightly less favorable to Harris than polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, but better for her in Arizona and Nevada. The company thinks the likeliest outcomes are between the state polling and MRP modeling.

U.S. election pollsters in recent times have had a mixed record. They underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020 and also largely missed the Democratic Party’s strength in the 2022 midterm elections.

This time, according to Focaldata’s research, the pollsters may be “herding” — clustering their results around the idea that the race is 50-50 in order to avoid looking like they’re wrong. Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris.

Analysis by Focaldata showed clear grouping of poll results in the middle of the distribution chart, suggesting the contest is virtually tied. There was a strange lack of “outlier” results showing a clear win for either candidate that would normally be expected from time to time.

“We, along with others, have seen evidence of herding among pollsters at this election — likely out of fear of underestimating Trump for a third cycle in a row,” said Kanagasooriam. “The result is the current public polling is … displaying much too high levels of confidence in a close race when we are a normal-sized polling error away from a clear victory for either candidate.”

In other words, it is totally possible that the election isn’t going to be close at all, despite what the pollsters are saying.

Another British polling firm, YouGov, made the running with the use of MRP models almost a decade ago. They bucked the trend in 2016 by correctly predicting both the shock Trump win and the unexpected U.K. Brexit referendum vote to leave the European Union in the same year.

But their results were so out of keeping with expectations that YouGov didn’t trumpet them in the public, recalled Joe Twyman, who was working at YouGov at the time.

YouGov’s 2017 MRP that predicted the loss of May’s majority in the U.K. election of that year “suddenly convinced people who should have known better … that MRP was some sort of magic bullet, that it could see things that other polls couldn’t,” Twyman told POLITICO. In the elections that followed, more and more pollsters produced their own MRPs. But in fact, these models are just as fallible as more conventional polling, said Twyman.

“There are good MRPs and bad MRPs, just like there are good polls and bad polls,” he said. “Polling is about asking the right people the right questions in the right way at the right time, and if you get those elements wrong, if you’ve asked the wrong questions, then it doesn’t matter how good your MRP is, it isn’t going to fix it.”

 

  • Popular Post
16 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

You have more faith in white women than I do. Unfortunately. 

They aren't the absolute embarrassing disaster that white men are right now.

7 hours ago, MrBig said:

I finally saw the whole clip and I don’t think he realizes he’s even doing the blow job with the mic. This could be the straw that breaks the homophobes backs. 

 

This clip + the almost falling while trying to get in a truck are how I want him to be remembered.

CLOWN. FUCKING. SHOW.

6 minutes ago, quigley said:

whats-the-big-deal-with-the-selzer-poll-

 

Don't care. If Selzer's off by 5 and Trump wins IA by 2, Harris will win WI, PA, and maybe OH (!?!?)

More importantly, Dems win Senate races in WI, PA, MI, OH. Osborn in NE has a good shot too based on the IA.

GOP needs to win Senate races in NE, MT, TX, and FL. Those aren't all independent of each other so I'd put the likelihood of Senate staying 50-50 as better than even.

I was talking about Sezler being potential light on her Democratic support, i.e, not Harris+3 but Harris +6.  But valid point nonetheless.  

28 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

image.png.0f919647645c425e9127bbea2e2c506f.png

Oh yeah, they scared now 

7 hours ago, Chopper said:

 

The way I learn that my vpn has connected to a Texas ip address is unmistakable. 

image.png.08937264892c0ba909306d36b922055c.png

Don't fuck with pornhub.

2 hours ago, HenryJames said:

80029c20-205c-47d9-98da-f14214631875.png

Yes, rotten bear road kill for breakfast in my house.

2 hours ago, HenryJames said:

80029c20-205c-47d9-98da-f14214631875.png

I’ll you you my Cheez-Its when you pry them from my cold, dead hands…

25 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

To be fair, White Women don’t have the best track record.

White women are like most people. They care the most about their own wellbeing. Can you think of any recent republican actions that negatively affect their wellbeing?

12 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/swing-state-mrp-mega-poll-00186941

 

 

 

 

  Hide contents

“We are ‘lean Democrat’, but only by the barest of margins,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO. “Even a polling error a third of the size seen in 2016 and 2020 would put Trump back in the White House.”

MRP — which stands for “multilevel regression and post-stratification” — is a statistical model that pollsters use to estimate state-level election results. It takes a massive nationwide sample and then uses demographic data to estimate seat or state-level outcomes.

The method — which gained the moniker of “mega poll” — burst onto the scene in the U.K. in 2017 by correctly predicting Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in Parliament at a time when most polls suggested she would win big.

At this year’s general election in the U.K., MRP surveys also dominated the polling coverage, with many predicting that Keir Starmer’s Labour would win a huge victory and the Conservatives would crash to a historic defeat. Even so, the MRP projections in the U.K. were mixed, with some a long way off the final election results.

Backers of the method say it is likely to be even more effective in the U.S. where there are only 50 states. In Britain, the MRP model needs to produce forecasts for 650 constituencies represented in Westminster’s parliament, a more complicated operation.

Focaldata has been working on the U.S. polls for months. According to swing state polls, conducted online among 10,992 voters earlier in October, Trump had a big lead on handling the most important issues facing the nation. Among the four in 10 voters who chose immigration as a top issue, Trump led Harris by 74 points as the best placed candidate to handle it.

He was also ahead on how he would deal with inflation and the cost of living, jobs, tax crime and national security. The vice president led Trump on climate change, abortion, democracy and healthcare, among other issues. But Harris’ strengths lay in areas that voters less frequently named as the top issues facing the country.

Focaldata’s two data streams – state-level polling and MRP modeling – produced marginally different results. The MRP results were slightly less favorable to Harris than polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, but better for her in Arizona and Nevada. The company thinks the likeliest outcomes are between the state polling and MRP modeling.

U.S. election pollsters in recent times have had a mixed record. They underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020 and also largely missed the Democratic Party’s strength in the 2022 midterm elections.

This time, according to Focaldata’s research, the pollsters may be “herding” — clustering their results around the idea that the race is 50-50 in order to avoid looking like they’re wrong. Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris.

Analysis by Focaldata showed clear grouping of poll results in the middle of the distribution chart, suggesting the contest is virtually tied. There was a strange lack of “outlier” results showing a clear win for either candidate that would normally be expected from time to time.

“We, along with others, have seen evidence of herding among pollsters at this election — likely out of fear of underestimating Trump for a third cycle in a row,” said Kanagasooriam. “The result is the current public polling is … displaying much too high levels of confidence in a close race when we are a normal-sized polling error away from a clear victory for either candidate.”

In other words, it is totally possible that the election isn’t going to be close at all, despite what the pollsters are saying.

Another British polling firm, YouGov, made the running with the use of MRP models almost a decade ago. They bucked the trend in 2016 by correctly predicting both the shock Trump win and the unexpected U.K. Brexit referendum vote to leave the European Union in the same year.

But their results were so out of keeping with expectations that YouGov didn’t trumpet them in the public, recalled Joe Twyman, who was working at YouGov at the time.

YouGov’s 2017 MRP that predicted the loss of May’s majority in the U.K. election of that year “suddenly convinced people who should have known better … that MRP was some sort of magic bullet, that it could see things that other polls couldn’t,” Twyman told POLITICO. In the elections that followed, more and more pollsters produced their own MRPs. But in fact, these models are just as fallible as more conventional polling, said Twyman.

“There are good MRPs and bad MRPs, just like there are good polls and bad polls,” he said. “Polling is about asking the right people the right questions in the right way at the right time, and if you get those elements wrong, if you’ve asked the wrong questions, then it doesn’t matter how good your MRP is, it isn’t going to fix it.”

 

Thank you for posting this and including the whole article. Polling needs to change, and this is one way to do it.

However, this is "conducted online among 10,992 voters earlier in October"

My biggest questions are how they recruited this sample and what and how many variable they're setting the regression up for.

4 minutes ago, quigley said:

Thank you for posting this and including the whole article. Polling needs to change, and this is one way to do it.

However, this is "conducted online among 10,992 voters earlier in October"

My biggest questions are how they recruited this sample and what and how many variable they're setting the regression up for.

Polling like the UK polls might be a good start. They clearly get it right pretty often. But there’s probably a lot less mistrust in their media than we have. 

15 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I was talking about Sezler being potential light on her Democratic support, i.e, not Harris+3 but Harris +6.  But valid point nonetheless.  

I mean, if Harris swings IA 14 percent ( -8 to +6), you're talking Obama 2008 and Dems in the Senate 52-48 and House like + 40.

That would be a true repudiation of Trump-ism.

@G650 and @Bozo_Casanova and I would be arguing about policy rather and working together to save democracy

Happy School GIF

3 hours ago, HenryJames said:

80029c20-205c-47d9-98da-f14214631875.png

 

They can all pry the last bag of Cool Ranch Doritos from my cold dead hands

Still really funny to watch GOP all the sudden be 100% onboard with Michele Obama health initiatives for the totally wrong reason (Crazy ass RFK Jr)

  • Popular Post

 

https://www.propublica.org/article/donald-trump-media-outsourced-jobs-mexico-truth-social

 

Quote

Former President Donald Trump’s social media company outsourced jobs to workers in Mexico even as Trump publicly railed against outsourcing on the campaign trail and threatened heavy tariffs on companies that send jobs south of the border.

The firm’s use of workers in Mexico was confirmed by a spokesperson for Trump Media, which operates the Truth Social platform. The workers were hired through another entity to code and perform other technical duties, according to a person with knowledge of Trump Media. The reliance on foreign labor was met with outrage among the company's own staff, who accused its leadership of betraying their “America First” ideals, the person said.

 

Quote

The outsourcing to Mexico helped prompt a recent whistleblower letter from staff to Trump Media’s board that has been roiling the company.

That complaint, reported by ProPublica last month, calls for the board to fire CEO Devin Nunes, a former Republican congressman. The letter alleges he has “severely” mismanaged the company. It also asserts the company is hiring “America Last” — with Nunes imposing a directive to hire only foreign contractors at the expense of “American workers who are deeply committed to our mission.”

“This approach not only contradicts the America First principles we stand for but also raises concerns about the quality, dedication, and alignment of our workforce with our core values,” the complaint reads.

 

Quote

A Trump Media spokesperson said the company uses “two individual workers” in Mexico. “Presenting the fact that [Trump Media] works with precisely two specialist contractors in Mexico as some sort of sensational scandal is just the latest in a long line of defamatory conspiracy theories invented by the serial fabricators at ProPublica,” the spokesperson said.

The spokesperson declined to answer other questions about the company’s Mexican contractors, including how much they’ve been paid, how many have been used over time and how their hiring squares with Trump’s promises to punish firms that send jobs outside of the U.S. The Trump campaign did not respond to questions.

 

Spoiler

For a company of its prominence, Trump Media has a tiny permanent staff, employing just a few dozen people as of the end of last year, only a portion of whom work on the Truth Social technology.

Trump Media’s hiring of Mexican coders also prompted frustration within the staff, the person with knowledge of the company said, because they were perceived by staff to not have the technical expertise to do the work.

On its homepage, Truth Social bills itself as “Proudly made in the United States of America. 🇺🇸

Both as president and in his campaign for a second term, Trump has criticized companies that send jobs abroad, particularly to Mexico. If elected, he has pledged to “stop outsourcing” and “punish” companies that send jobs abroad.

For example, Trump recently threatened agricultural machinery giant John Deere with tariffs if it went through with plans to move some of its manufacturing to Mexico.

“I’m just notifying John Deere right now, if you do that, we’re putting a 200 percent tariff on everything you want to sell into the United States,” Trump said.

He has made a similar threat against automakers building cars in Mexico, demanding they hire American workers and manufacture domestically. 

“I'm not going to let them build a factory right across the border,” Trump promised, “and sell millions of cars into the United States and destroy Detroit further."

Trump owns nearly 60% of the social media company, a stake worth around $3.5 billion at the stock’s Friday closing price — more than half of the former president’s net worth.

The results of the election are widely seen as a major factor in the future value of the company. As the Nov. 5 election draws closer, Trump Media’s stock price has fluctuated wildly even as little or nothing has changed in the company’s actual business, which generates scant revenue. The stock closed Friday down 40% from its recent peak on Tuesday. Despite that drop, it has still nearly doubled since the beginning of October.

One Trump Media board member, Eric Swider, offered a defense of relying on foreign labor in a statement to ProPublica from his lawyer.

“President Trump maintains an America First policy, which includes prioritizing American workers. Trump Media, however, is a global multi-media company. For a global multi-media company to utilize subcontractors, which in turn may utilize coders located in a foreign country, is a practice common to the industry,” the statement said. “Such global multi-media companies like Trump Media would have no right to control the employment decisions of its subcontractors, which may employ workers in a multitude of different countries in addition to the United States.”

Swider, a businessman based in Puerto Rico, serves on the board alongside better known figures such as Donald Trump Jr. and Linda McMahon, the former Trump cabinet member who is now co-chair of his transition team.

The outsourcing to Mexico is not the only instance of Trump Media relying on foreign workers. ProPublica previously reported that the company used a foreign firm to source labor in the Balkans.

Nunes, for his part, is quoted in a new book about Truth Social, “Disappearing the President,” boasting about his ability to keep costs down at Trump Media, though he didn’t mention outsourcing.

“Nobody grew as fast as we did. I don't think there's any other example even close to us out there, especially with as little money as we spent,” Nunes said. “Don't forget that. We built this for a fraction of what these other companies were built for.”

 

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Polling like the UK polls might be a good start. They clearly get it right pretty often. But there’s probably a lot less mistrust in their media than we have. 

I know even less about UK politics than US politics, but there are significant hurdles using national surveys in the US. We don't think FL votes like OH or that NV votes like TN. Sample plus the locality of races here may make extrapolating their methods harder.

Just now, Evil Bill Obrien said:

 

They can all pry the last bag of Cool Ranch Doritos from my cold dead hands

Still really funny to watch GOP all the sudden be 100% onboard with Michele Obama health initiatives for the totally wrong reason (Crazy ass RFK Jr)

Plus, which billionaires investments/products are Republicans repudiating, which should be the true litmus of anything they spout.  They're a Billionaires first party.   

Not sure if it's been posted because I wasn't looking for it, but Smithley had a PA drop yesterday.

400k D/R

479 D+I/R

So I'm guessing that just leaves mail-in trickling in over the weekend.

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Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.