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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1852921202567688416.html

 

Quote

🧵I see the takes saying that the abortion ban explains Iowa, and I agree it does partially. August 2024 is the first total ban in decades. But what else happened that could move even people who wanted a ban? 

I'll tell you—Iowa has been unable to recruit OBGYNs. In the last few months, areas that previously had OBGYNs don't. 

Iowa's Jasper County's sole delivery center, MercyOne Newton, stopped providing labor and delivery services on Oct. 15, forcing expectant mothers to go elsewhere.

 

Quote

The data show that it will not be the only location. Iowa struggles to recruit all types of doctors, not just OBGYNs. In a country where some states threaten prison time if they disagree with your assessment, successful people with money don't choose to go there. 

The state's OBGYN program saw a steep decline in interest (especially for a specialty). If you're risking prison, you're not doing it live in Iowa. 

Before the ban, most OBGYNs who had trained in Iowa had left.

 

Quote

According to a 2022 study published in the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Iowa has the nation's lowest per capita ratio of OBGYN providers to Medicare beneficiaries.

That was BEFORE Roe was overturned. Somehow, even though Iowa was one of the worst, it got worse.

 

Quote

The consequences for Iowa will be long-lasting and dire, even if it is reversed because now the possibility exists where it was only theoretical before. 

Places where you can't have babies aren't easy places to have a family. People with options will choose elsewhere, and many other things in society decline as talent leaves. For example, the value of your home depends upon the idea someone else would buy it. But what if the most successful people aren't there anymore? What if they leave? One can imagine a more diffuse version of what happens with "White flight." 

 

 

Quote

First, they will lose providers. Those who have the means will move to where providers are. From there, quality of education declines. Businesses that want the best employees want to be able to say, "Come here because we have good schools, good hospitals, etc." But lately, Iowa has gutted its schools, and now its minimally existent OBGYN amenities are about to dive. 

All of this is now on the minds of even those who approved the ban. Many of them are women who have multiple children. And if you have children, you know things can go wrong unpredictably. You know that a seemingly limitless range of things can go wrong in pregnancy, labor, and delivery. And now you realize you may be far away from help when it happens. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

amazing referance

It was good enough in 16 and 20.  Nobody in the polling and pundit world gave it this much scrutiny then. 

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

Trump calls into Fox & Friends seemingly weekly.

I thought cable and online only media were exempt 

although how many people watch SNL over the air these days? 10?

 

 

7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

amazing referance

Does this mean we are going to get pictures of Tricia Helfer and Katee Sackoff in the thread now?  

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Harris is not losing white women 

YARN | Well, that sounds hot. | Emily in Paris (2020) - S02E08 Champagne  Problems | Video gifs by quotes | 76e871cc | 紗

3 hours ago, HenryJames said:

80029c20-205c-47d9-98da-f14214631875.png

Again, how fucking stupid is this guy? Does he really think Trump is going to let him ban any of this stuff?

5 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I thought cable and online only media were exempt 

although how many people watch SNL over the air these days? 10?

 

 

Arrested Development Reaction GIF by MOODMAN

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Does this mean we are going to get pictures of Tricia Helfer and Katee Sackoff in the thread now?  

Yes but also the weird NXIVM girls (would've)

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It was good enough in 16 and 20.  Nobody in the polling and pundit world gave it this much scrutiny then. 

It's actually good to have data points using the same methodology from '16 to now.  The post upthread showed she underreported Trump by 2 points in 16 and 1 point in 20.  A similar miss here is still fantastic for Kamala.

Contrast that with 90+% of pollsters that have at best fiddled with their weighting to try to fix past Trump underreporting and at worst are just herding to the middle as cya. 

Only time will tell if their adjustments are actual improvements.  It would be nice to see more polls that don't change methodology as a control.  But polling isn't cheap.

  • Popular Post

Something just occurred to me.  I've voted against Trump 5 times now- 3 generals and 2 primaries.  I'm getting more and more optimistic that I'll never have to do it again.

12 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

They were pleased when trump dumped billions on farmers after his tariffs raw dogged them. 

If you know farmers, they HATE that shit.

Small farmers are independent people who WANT TO FARM. They're smart, self-sufficient problem solvers who don't like being told what to do.

And they don't want handouts.

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1 minute ago, TexasHooch said:

Something just occurred to me.  I've voted against Trump 5 times now- 3 generals and 2 primaries.  I'm getting more and more optimistic that I'll never have to do it again.

The average/median American just wants never to have to hear about or see him again.

Just now, quigley said:

they don't want handouts.

could've fooled me

1 minute ago, TexasHooch said:

Something just occurred to me.  I've voted against Trump 5 times now- 3 generals and 2 primaries.  I'm getting more and more optimistic that I'll never have to do it again.

Not even close to being true. 2 more presidential elections at least. They will Darth Vader him if they have to. 

Just now, UTGrad98 said:

Not even close to being true. 2 more presidential elections at least. They will Darth Vader him if they have to. 

Yup. Unless he’s dead, he’s running in 2028.

8 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Again, how fucking stupid is this guy? Does he really think Trump is going to let him ban any of this stuff?

No McDonald’s on that table 

57 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/swing-state-mrp-mega-poll-00186941

 

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

“We are ‘lean Democrat’, but only by the barest of margins,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO. “Even a polling error a third of the size seen in 2016 and 2020 would put Trump back in the White House.”

MRP — which stands for “multilevel regression and post-stratification” — is a statistical model that pollsters use to estimate state-level election results. It takes a massive nationwide sample and then uses demographic data to estimate seat or state-level outcomes.

The method — which gained the moniker of “mega poll” — burst onto the scene in the U.K. in 2017 by correctly predicting Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in Parliament at a time when most polls suggested she would win big.

At this year’s general election in the U.K., MRP surveys also dominated the polling coverage, with many predicting that Keir Starmer’s Labour would win a huge victory and the Conservatives would crash to a historic defeat. Even so, the MRP projections in the U.K. were mixed, with some a long way off the final election results.

Backers of the method say it is likely to be even more effective in the U.S. where there are only 50 states. In Britain, the MRP model needs to produce forecasts for 650 constituencies represented in Westminster’s parliament, a more complicated operation.

Focaldata has been working on the U.S. polls for months. According to swing state polls, conducted online among 10,992 voters earlier in October, Trump had a big lead on handling the most important issues facing the nation. Among the four in 10 voters who chose immigration as a top issue, Trump led Harris by 74 points as the best placed candidate to handle it.

He was also ahead on how he would deal with inflation and the cost of living, jobs, tax crime and national security. The vice president led Trump on climate change, abortion, democracy and healthcare, among other issues. But Harris’ strengths lay in areas that voters less frequently named as the top issues facing the country.

Focaldata’s two data streams – state-level polling and MRP modeling – produced marginally different results. The MRP results were slightly less favorable to Harris than polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, but better for her in Arizona and Nevada. The company thinks the likeliest outcomes are between the state polling and MRP modeling.

U.S. election pollsters in recent times have had a mixed record. They underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020 and also largely missed the Democratic Party’s strength in the 2022 midterm elections.

This time, according to Focaldata’s research, the pollsters may be “herding” — clustering their results around the idea that the race is 50-50 in order to avoid looking like they’re wrong. Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris.

Analysis by Focaldata showed clear grouping of poll results in the middle of the distribution chart, suggesting the contest is virtually tied. There was a strange lack of “outlier” results showing a clear win for either candidate that would normally be expected from time to time.

“We, along with others, have seen evidence of herding among pollsters at this election — likely out of fear of underestimating Trump for a third cycle in a row,” said Kanagasooriam. “The result is the current public polling is … displaying much too high levels of confidence in a close race when we are a normal-sized polling error away from a clear victory for either candidate.”

In other words, it is totally possible that the election isn’t going to be close at all, despite what the pollsters are saying.

Another British polling firm, YouGov, made the running with the use of MRP models almost a decade ago. They bucked the trend in 2016 by correctly predicting both the shock Trump win and the unexpected U.K. Brexit referendum vote to leave the European Union in the same year.

But their results were so out of keeping with expectations that YouGov didn’t trumpet them in the public, recalled Joe Twyman, who was working at YouGov at the time.

YouGov’s 2017 MRP that predicted the loss of May’s majority in the U.K. election of that year “suddenly convinced people who should have known better … that MRP was some sort of magic bullet, that it could see things that other polls couldn’t,” Twyman told POLITICO. In the elections that followed, more and more pollsters produced their own MRPs. But in fact, these models are just as fallible as more conventional polling, said Twyman.

“There are good MRPs and bad MRPs, just like there are good polls and bad polls,” he said. “Polling is about asking the right people the right questions in the right way at the right time, and if you get those elements wrong, if you’ve asked the wrong questions, then it doesn’t matter how good your MRP is, it isn’t going to fix it.”

 

FOREIGN ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!!

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The average/median American just wants never to have to hear about or see him again.

could've fooled me

 

Oh, if only we were so lucky.  He can lose Tuesday, fail in every legal attempt to get him back into the Oval, and we will still hear from him daily until either he is banned from using any sort of telecommunication device, the media ignores him completely (lol jk), or death.

And in death, his message will still be broadcast in some way, shape or form ("If Trump were alive/in office/whatever that would have never happened").

We are stuck with him, in one way, shape or another, until each of our demise.  We can only hope that he is never in any position of power, at any level, ever again.

 

 

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0

I have been operating under the assumption we have to beat back Trump one more time.

But seeing the extent his fanatical fanbase is, particularly the Evangelical Christians, I am not entirely sure we won't see him again in 2028 at age 80 or whatever. He is God's anointed to these people.

Which baffles me. There are many things I have thought about Donald Trump over the course of his time as a celebrity but 'beloved and revered by Christians' was not one I ever thought I would see.

He isn't even born again or anything. This isn't even George W Bush saying "it was ok that I did cocaine, I have found God and been forgiven but your ass is going to prison." No, he is still the same sleazebag.

 

12 hours ago, Js1 said:

Trump internals allegedly only have him up 5 in Iowa. So that still is pretty bad for them 

If they have Trump up 5 in IA, Harris wins and Dems likely keep Senate (maybe just Osborn, but I'll take it).

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I have been operating under the assumption we have to beat back Trump one more time.

But seeing the extent his fanatical fanbase is, particularly the Evangelical Christians, I am not entirely sure we won't see him again in 2028 at age 80 or whatever. He is God's anointed to these people.

Which baffles me. There are many things I have thought about Donald Trump over the course of his time as a celebrity but 'beloved and revered by Christians' was not one I ever thought I would see.

He isn't even born again or anything. This isn't even George W Bush saying "it was ok that I did cocaine, I have found God and been forgiven but your ass is going to prison." No, he is still the same sleazebag.

 

A - he won't be alive

B - It's one thing to lose closely and make the argument you can win again, lose in a blow out and run again is sort of like putting up Walter Mondale another time.  The big money is not doing it, and they will demand big changes.

C - he's had coattails the past four years, which has helped protect him because of the potential, after a blowout, everyone with power is going to walk away from that, because they will be concerned for themselves first, not him.  

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9 minutes ago, quigley said:

If you know farmers, they HATE that shit.

Small farmers are independent people who WANT TO FARM. They're smart, self-sufficient problem solvers who don't like being told what to do.

And they don't want handouts.

Yeah, I’m calling bullshit. While that may be how they view themselves, and while that may be what they say out loud, their fucking voting record tells an entirely different story. Same as they bemoan immigration while they 100% fucking need it to survive. 
 

Farming is already heavily subsidized, and they cashed those fucking checks and voted for Trump and against policies in their own self interest. They are their voting record. 
 

You, me, and everyone else lose who’s sat on this thread and pointed out that people who vote for trump at this point have to be racists on some level…we don’t get to apply a different criteria to fucking farmers. They are how they vote. 

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Which baffles me. There are many things I have thought about Donald Trump over the course of his time as a celebrity but 'beloved and revered by Christians' was not one I ever thought I would see.

It’s less baffling when you understand that a large portion of those people are not Christians in any resemblance of Christ.

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

For some reason this got me, and not for any particular reason. I just got really sad thinking that women are going to save democracy, and it came to be that way because we treat them like fucking shitty second class citizens. Gimme 100 years of matriarchy. Maybe with Mayor Pete sprinkled in. 

That would be awesome, provided we don't go full idiot and put the likes of Marge and Boobert in charge.  I feel confident the broads wouldn't be as stupid as we dudes when it comes to selecting effective representatives.

12 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

Feel like this tweet fits with Huck’s post.  Gee Ryan, I wonder what could cause seniors to turn on Trump?

 

It's true that we don't know any of the methods for Selzer's polling.

That said, she's seen a MASSIVE shift just this cycle:

- this summer: Trump ahead big when it was Trump-Biden

- August: Trump up 4

- October: Harris up 3

Rather than this election being won because of abortion only, I would contend that the deciding factor would be abortion plus candidate quality. Harris has run a great campaign and tacked to the center. Trump has set himself on fire in new and exciting ways and tacked to the right.

Tester, Osborn, Allred, DMP

howard-dean-scream.gif

6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Man, fuck this douche.

f48957c2-c1d7-423a-9bb3-cdb5257e1843_tex

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

It’s less baffling when you understand that a large portion of those people are not Christians in any resemblance of Christ.

I mean there always is that. Evangelicals are not real Christians in some sense, at least not this 75% of them that seem to be in the Trump bubble.

But it is still bizarre and blows my mind. It would be one thing if they were holding their nose and voting for him because they just hate abortion that much...but no. They see him as some kind of divinely favored figure. Despite everything.

1 minute ago, quigley said:

It's true that we don't know any of the methods for Selzer's polling.

That said, she's seen a MASSIVE shift just this cycle:

- this summer: Trump ahead big when it was Trump-Biden

- August: Trump up 4

- October: Harris up 3

Rather than this election being won because of abortion only, I would contend that the deciding factor would be abortion plus candidate quality. Harris has run a great campaign and tacked to the center. Trump has set himself on fire in new and exciting ways and tacked to the right.

She talked about it on MSNBC and mentioned the from the ground up enthusiasm for Harris, considering neither campaign has been in Iowa. She mentions that Harris’ entrance gained her new voters and expanded the voting base, mostly from senior and middle aged women 

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45 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

 

They can all pry the last bag of Cool Ranch Doritos from my cold dead hands

Still really funny to watch GOP all the sudden be 100% onboard with Michele Obama health initiatives for the totally wrong reason (Crazy ass RFK Jr)

First they came for those who woke up feeling the cheesiest, and I said nothing...

Just now, David Dennison said:

Economist gonna Economist:

 

It’s like I’ve been transported back to Democrats saying that in 2020 about the final Selzer poll 

35 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

amazing referance

Oh you mean an actual attempt at a truly random sample?

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Economist gonna Economist:

 

I saw that too, but didn't post because it's pay-walled.  Let's see it.

26 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Again, how fucking stupid is this guy? Does he really think Trump is going to let him ban any of this stuff?

Of course. Trump will do everything he can to perpetuate Obama policy. 

IMG_6929.jpeg

37 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

I know of one rural hospital in Texas that is ending L&D after the first of the year. In rural Texas, OB and Gyn care is mostly Family Medicine physicians, and although no one is talking I wonder if the providers at this hospital are resigning their OB/GYN privileges 

7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Economist gonna Economist:

 

Pycc4u.gif

7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Oh you mean an actual attempt at a truly random sample?

Exactly. All the weighing and assumptions are the reasons the polls have sucked. Trying to "fix" the sample just creates greater volatility.

Just now, Dahobbs said:

Exactly. All the weighing and assumptions are the reasons the polls have sucked. Trying to "fix" the sample just creates greater volatility.

Yep. She doesn’t make assumptions about the electorate. She gets the data, she publishes the data. 

17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah, I’m calling bullshit. While that may be how they view themselves, and while that may be what they say out loud, their fucking voting record tells an entirely different story. Same as they bemoan immigration while they 100% fucking need it to survive. 
 

Farming is already heavily subsidized, and they cashed those fucking checks and voted for Trump and against policies in their own self interest. They are their voting record. 
 

You, me, and everyone else lose who’s sat on this thread and pointed out that people who vote for trump at this point have to be racists on some level…we don’t get to apply a different criteria to fucking farmers. They are how they vote. 

You bring up several important, but nuanced points.

I'm talking about the small farmers who I grew up with. I know they are racists. The n-word was not normalized, it was normal.

I know they cashed the checks. But 2 things: the checks weren't that big and it cuts against the way they view of themselves.

Industrial farming got the biggest bailout. We know that industrial farming provides the most product, and it gets a disproportionate amount of subsidy. Small farmers are more numerous, less overall productive, and get disproportionately less subsidy (data and reference below).

Plus, small farmer aren't comfortable on the public dole (even though they've been subsidized for decades--don't bring that up), for the same reason they feel comfortable using the n-word.

The discrepancy is between reality and self perception, which we all also acknowledge.

 

https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/2021-farm-subsidies-ballooned-under-trump/

For example, through the MFP in 2018 and 2019:

  • The top 1 percent of recipients received 16 percent of payments, with an average total payment for both years of $524,298 per farm. The top 10 percent received 58 percent of payments, with an average total payment of $185,340.
  • The bottom 80 percent of recipients received only 23 percent of payments – an average payment for both years of only $9,109 per recipient.

Edited by quigley

14 hours ago, Goofyboy said:

Does this translate to taking the House and keeping / improving in the Senate?? Harris needs both to really do work.

This is the REALLY big picture point of the Selzer poll. Watch NE Senate seat.

1 minute ago, quigley said:

This is the REALLY big picture point of the Selzer poll. Watch NE Senate seat.

I posted in the other thread that her down ballot races had Dems flipping IA01/03. IA-01 margin is skeptical (D+16) but the R is at 37% so there’s a lot of room for her to grow but the D was at 53%

9 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I know of one rural hospital in Texas that is ending L&D after the first of the year. In rural Texas, OB and Gyn care is mostly Family Medicine physicians, and although no one is talking I wonder if the providers at this hospital are resigning their OB/GYN privileges 

Yes they are. There are several published reports of this in many states. I don't know if I've seen this directly for Texas.

I’m certainly not going to go back to 2020 posts and find it, but I know for a fact I was a Selzer denialist. We all thought Biden was leading or close in Iowa and that poll dropped and I recall posting something to the effect of “outlier, whatever” and pretending it didn’t happen 

Not falling for that again. But will laugh at the GOP now picking apart a Selzer poll they loved in 2016 and 2020

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1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Playing to the whistle 

 

That was one of the things David Plouffe tweeted the other day. Its basically all GOTV from here and they are full speed.

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I posted in the other thread that her down ballot races had Dems flipping IA01/03. IA-01 margin is skeptical (D+16) but the R is at 37% so there’s a lot of room for her to grow but the D was at 53%

We agree

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She talked about it on MSNBC and mentioned the from the ground up enthusiasm for Harris, considering neither campaign has been in Iowa. She mentions that Harris’ entrance gained her new voters and expanded the voting base, mostly from senior and middle aged women 

Did she talk about her methods and how they may differ from other pollsters?

  • Popular Post
28 minutes ago, quigley said:

If you know farmers, they HATE that shit.

Small farmers are independent people who WANT TO FARM. They're smart, self-sufficient problem solvers who don't like being told what to do.

And they don't want handouts.

I don’t want to be overly presumptuous about farmers in Iowa, none of whom I know and in a state I’ve never visited.  
 

That said, I grew up around SE Texas rice farmers (and after rice didn’t make money they cycled through sorghum, soybeans, even cotton and of course now everyone is growing corn) and they are just are plenty happy to take a handout.  I watched those families get bailed annually in the 80’s and that “bail-out” money wasn’t going to just food, it got spent in new trucks, boats, 4 wheelers and the like.  I wouldn’t get overly sanctimonious about their dislike of federal support when it’s meant for them.  
 

I’ll tell you something else you probably don’t know about those hard working, independent problem solvers.  Most of them aren’t farming anymore (too much work, too little profit) but they are still getting USDA money for leasing their fields to other farmers, sometimes just for leaving them fallow.  These are the same people, mind you, passing along emails later forwarded to me that claimed Obama was a Muslim jihadist back in 2005.  I’m sure that’s migrated to Facebook or other social networks, but I’m sure the rhetoric about Harris isn’t any less racist.  
 

 

At this point, I'm convinced that he has no idea Fox is getting paid by the Harris campaign (or subsidiaries) to run the ads.

 

 

 

 

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