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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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1 hour ago, quigley said:

I mean, if Harris swings IA 14 percent ( -8 to +6), you're talking Obama 2008 and Dems in the Senate 52-48 and House like + 40.

That would be a true repudiation of Trump-ism.

@G650 and @Bozo_Casanova and I would be arguing about policy rather and working together to save democracy

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From your lips to God's ears

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This is why you can’t assume all the new voters this cycle who were eligible to but didn’t vote in 2020 are Trump voters. 

Edited by Js1

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

amazing referance

Beets, bears, Battlestar Galactica

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

At this point, I'm convinced that he has no idea Fox is getting paid by the Harris campaign (or subsidiaries) to run the ads.

 

 

 

He knows, he just thinks that they shouldn't accept them.  As for this specific comment from him though, he makes it clear (must not have written it), that he's speaking to the actual shows playing the ads as part of the "news" programs.  As in "here's the ad, let's discuss".

2 hours ago, quigley said:

There's a strong argument to be made that Harris/Walz left bushels on the field by not making a bigger deal about how Trump's tariff and trade policies in general will destabilize farm commodity prices.

I’d guess farmers already know that. They were there.  Whether that will be enough to change their lifetime of voting Republican is another matter.

1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t want to be overly presumptuous about farmers in Iowa, none of whom I know and in a state I’ve never visited.  
 

That said, I grew up around SE Texas rice farmers (and after rice didn’t make money they cycled through sorghum, soybeans, even cotton and of course now everyone is growing corn) and they are just are plenty happy to take a handout.  I watched those families get bailed annually in the 80’s and that “bail-out” money wasn’t going to just food, it got spent in new trucks, boats, 4 wheelers and the like.  I wouldn’t get overly sanctimonious about their dislike of federal support when it’s meant for them.  
 

I’ll tell you something else you probably don’t know about those hard working, independent problem solvers.  Most of them aren’t farming anymore (too much work, too little profit) but they are still getting USDA money for leasing their fields to other farmers, sometimes just for leaving them fallow.  These are the same people, mind you, passing along emails later forwarded to me that claimed Obama was a Muslim jihadist back in 2005.  I’m sure that’s migrated to Facebook or other social networks, but I’m sure the rhetoric about Harris isn’t any less racist. 

Agree. I grew up in Oklahoma, not Iowa and don't know one person who lives there.

Most farmers I know have second jobs. And the wife works off the farm too. The farm provides a lot of tax benefits too. And the 4-wheelers and boats are off the public dole.

The racism is baked in just like farming is part of their identity. I'm positing why there may be a shift.

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This is why you can’t assume all the new voters this cycle who were eligible to but didn’t vote in 2020 are Trump voters. 

I don't understand any reasoning that assumes there is a large population of Trump voters that sat out 2020 but will vote in 2024. Just a ridiculous assumption. 

21 minutes ago, quigley said:

You bring up several important, but nuanced points.

I'm talking about the small farmers who I grew up with. I know they are racists. The n-word was not normalized, it was normal.

I know they cashed the checks. But 2 things: the checks weren't that big and it cuts against the way they view of themselves.

Industrial farming got the biggest bailout. We know that industrial farming provides the most product, and it gets a disproportionate amount of subsidy. Small farmers are more numerous, less overall productive, and get disproportionately less subsidy (data and reference below).

Plus, small farmer aren't comfortable on the public dole (even though they've been subsidized for decades--don't bring that up), for the same reason they feel comfortable using the n-word.

The discrepancy is between reality and self perception, which we all also acknowledge.

 

https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/2021-farm-subsidies-ballooned-under-trump/

For example, through the MFP in 2018 and 2019:

  • The top 1 percent of recipients received 16 percent of payments, with an average total payment for both years of $524,298 per farm. The top 10 percent received 58 percent of payments, with an average total payment of $185,340.
  • The bottom 80 percent of recipients received only 23 percent of payments – an average payment for both years of only $9,109 per recipient.

“The checks werent that big” doesn’t really do anything to negate the point. They cashed them, they just didn’t like talking about it. 
 

nothing you’ve described illustrates smart, independent people. That’s how they view themselves. That isn’t reality. Smart people can recognize reality. Period. 
 

For reference, my father in law was a “rancher” in Texas. I’ve spent plenty of time in these communities as well. 

11 minutes ago, quigley said:

Did she talk about her methods and how they may differ from other pollsters?

From what I understand, she does  random digit dialing, plugs in the data and outputs the numbers. Theres no massaging the data, there’s no weighing for priors or assuming X group will turn out at a higher rate than Y group, etc. 

She just straight up says “this was my data, these are my numbers”

I also don’t believe she does recall vote, which has been overestimating Trump, according to Cohn  

Edited by Js1

57 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Again, how fucking stupid is this guy? Does he really think Trump is going to let him ban any of this stuff?

Just let him try and ban HFCS ketchup. 

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Dads for Don do not think like this. Dad's who do think like this are already not voting for Don.

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’ll you you my Cheez-Its when you pry them from my cold, dead hands…

Hmm, on a scale of zero to "the cheesiest", how would you say you woke up this morning?

1 minute ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Hmm, on a scale of zero to "the cheesiest", how would you say you woke up this morning?

I woke up feeling the cheesiest coach! 

2 hours ago, Post Oak said:

You have more faith in white women than I do. Unfortunately. 

white-women.gif.86d47a2aee73e2bb88075e2cb4e225d4.gif

14 minutes ago, G650 said:

That was one of the things David Plouffe tweeted the other day. Its basically all GOTV from here and they are full speed.

You have to love the absence of GOP field offices, and the fact that people who are sitting at a Starbucks Wi-Fi making up calls grifted Elmo to the point he’s paying people not to knock on doors. 

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

“The checks werent that big” doesn’t really do anything to negate the point. They cashed them, they just didn’t like talking about it. 
 

nothing you’ve described illustrates smart, independent people. That’s how they view themselves. That isn’t reality. Smart people can recognize reality. Period. 
 

For reference, my father in law was a “rancher” in Texas. I’ve spent plenty of time in these communities as well. 

I have to laugh at this. Isn't the whole conceit of this board that we're smart but come on here and learn that our world view as lacunae. Would we deny other people the same grace?

What does your father-in-law thing about the tariff-bailout cycle? Does he like it?

The thing Michael Steele was teasing, has that happened yet?

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Meanwhile:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The thing Michael Steele was teasing, has that happened yet?

Of course not.  He still needs to grift some more.

1 minute ago, quigley said:

I have to laugh at this. Isn't the whole conceit of this board that we're smart but come on here and learn that our world view as lacunae. Would we deny other people the same grace?

What does your father-in-law thing about the tariff-bailout cycle? Does he like it?

I dunno, do you think flat earthers deserve grace for their views?

well, he now has early onset dementia, so he doesn’t think much on the subject. And I don’t talk to him about politics or policy in general for all the obvious reasons. 

1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Meanwhile:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well yeah, they've got to worry about you going around planting pipe bombs around DC again.

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23 minutes ago, G650 said:

That was one of the things David Plouffe tweeted the other day. Its basically all GOTV from here and they are full speed.

This is the only anecdotal story I have: 

A bunch of my wife’s colleagues are up in PA doing GOTV.  They ran out of walk and call sheets yesterday so they went to the bar.  They are actively turning away volunteers in the Philly suburbs because they don’t have anything for them to do.

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

amazing referance

Wow, that’s a stunningly solid BSG reference.  I’m happily married and didn’t know I needed to find another wife but here we are.  
 

Clueless Movie Aww GIF by filmeditor

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I have shared ancedotes on here about educated, white women with daughters in high school/college who are still voting for Trump becuase reasons. I am also not too sure about my fellow white women.

I think a lot of them are just shitty people if I am being honest. There is a dark part of me that hopes they feel the pain they are putting on other people. I am not proud of that feeling, but there it is.

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1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I have shared ancedotes on here about educated, white women with daughters in high school/college who are still voting for Trump becuase reasons. I am also not too sure about my fellow white women.

I think a lot of them are just shitty people if I am being honest. There is a dark part of me that hopes they feel the pain they are putting on other people. I am not proud of that feeling, but there it is.

As a white male, I completely agree.  Except I am proud of the feeling.

I can be a bit of an asshole.

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54 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I mean there always is that. Evangelicals are not real Christians in some sense, at least not this 75% of them that seem to be in the Trump bubble.

But it is still bizarre and blows my mind. It would be one thing if they were holding their nose and voting for him because they just hate abortion that much...but no. They see him as some kind of divinely favored figure. Despite everything.

White Southern American Christianity was on the front lines defending slavery, Jim Crow, and now Trump. To take any position other than the one that results in the most regressive, stratified society would be inconsistent with historical norms. I don't know why this has surprised anyone. They have been telling us who they are for 200 years.

1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I have shared ancedotes on here about educated, white women with daughters in high school/college who are still voting for Trump becuase reasons. I am also not too sure about my fellow white women.

I think a lot of them are just shitty people if I am being honest. There is a dark part of me that hopes they feel the pain they are putting on other people. I am not proud of that feeling, but there it is.

Its ok to feel that way. I do. Unfortunately that's how most people learn but usually its on their deathbed after they have been shitty people their entire lives, voted for horrible policies and candidates and/or influenced thousands if not millions of people to do the same. See dead Koch brother. 

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One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what and Seltzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris. Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.

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Yeah, my boss who is an awesome, badass bitch (in the best possible way), wears some wild, hippie-esque clothing in the office and generally celebrates the Keep Austin Weird-vibe broke my heart on Friday. We were both WFH and on the Teams call I noticed in the corner of her desk she had a shiny new Trump 2024 Yeti. Her husband's high up in construction so I guess I shouldn't be that surprised, but they also have a daughter who's a HS senior and for the life of me I just can understand that disconnect.

14 hours ago, Js1 said:

This is certainly not the first poll to show Harris doing very well with college educated voters. Not sure if GEM’s complaint is the weighting or the margin. But this is a demo Dems have done better and better with. Dems overall won that demo +10 in 2020

 

52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She talked about it on MSNBC and mentioned the from the ground up enthusiasm for Harris, considering neither campaign has been in Iowa. She mentions that Harris’ entrance gained her new voters and expanded the voting base, mostly from senior and middle aged women 

 

Yeah, so that's the one obvious problem with Selzer's strategy. We don't know here response rate and whether we can trust it is reflective of the voting population of Iowa.

 

 

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I dunno, do you think flat earthers deserve grace for their views?

well, he now has early onset dementia, so he doesn’t think much on the subject. And I don’t talk to him about politics or policy in general for all the obvious reasons. 

So farmers are attune to the weather so I doubt there's one who's a flat-earther. Also, your rhetorical flourishes are diminish when you verge to edge cases.

Farmers comprise a significant voting population in Iowa. The point was me trying to explain why farmers may have switched to Trump to Harris. I was giving people who I've known my whole life the opportunity be on the right side of history because of self-interest and in spite of their abhorrent views (and behavior). With county level data after the election, we may see that I'm wrong or right, don't know. 

I'm sorry to learn about your father-in-law. Mine is in the same situation.

 

 

33 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

At this point, I'm convinced that he has no idea Fox is getting paid by the Harris campaign (or subsidiaries) to run the ads.

 

 

 

 

Assisting with his stolen election lie cost Fox three quarters of a billion alone in the Dominion suit. Not good enough for Man Baby. 

17 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Meanwhile:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would love it if Marge is right!

3 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Its ok to feel that way. I do. Unfortunately that's how most people learn but usually its on their deathbed after they have been shitty people their entire lives, voted for horrible policies and candidates and/or influenced thousands if not millions of people to do the same. See dead Koch brother. 

Yeah, disagree with your math there, Lou. I don’t think most people on their deathbed and say “you know, I was a real shit bird and voted for some really bad policies.” I think shitty people go out just like they lived, doing whatever necessary to think they did good and if there is a heaven they’re getting in…and probably have relatives around willing to go along with that lie. 

18 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Well yeah, they've got to worry about you going around planting pipe bombs around DC again.

DC will be fortified this time.

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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what and Seltzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris. Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.

If this election results in thousands of women divorcing their mediocre, overbearing husbands, I'd call that a win.

13 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

There is a dark part of me that hopes they feel the pain they are putting on other people. I am not proud of that feeling, but there it is.

How else are they going to learn?

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4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I have shared ancedotes on here about educated, white women with daughters in high school/college who are still voting for Trump becuase reasons. I am also not too sure about my fellow white women.

Try having those older white women  be a part of your normal dating age pool demographic when they trend Trumpy in our very Republican state.  

I have legitimate non-dirty old man reasons for sometimes dating younger women here.  All of Jefferson parish and most of Orleans Lakeview area are all very maga.  Which almost always means most of their friends relatives and neighbors are too.  After several experiments giving people the benefit of the doubt, I no longer do that as it is a waste of time.

That said, I hear the same thing from liberal women in very Trumpy areas. I dated an age appropriate lady from Tennessee for a while and she said she’s essentially not dating anymore because every man she meets is a huge Trump supporter.   

What I’m trying to say is we’re missing making money on creating a political themed dating app. 

2 hours ago, quigley said:

Osborn in NE has a good shot too based on the IA.

How confident are we that Osborn will be a somewhat reliable 'D' vote in the Senate and not pull a Munchkin or 'Dangerous Creature'?

5 minutes ago, quigley said:

 

 

Yeah, so that's the one obvious problem with Selzer's strategy. We don't know here response rate and whether we can trust it is reflective of the voting population of Iowa.

 

 

So farmers are attune to the weather so I doubt there's one who's a flat-earther. Also, your rhetorical flourishes are diminish when you verge to edge cases.

Farmers comprise a significant voting population in Iowa. The point was me trying to explain why farmers may have switched to Trump to Harris. I was giving people who I've known my whole life the opportunity be on the right side of history because of self-interest and in spite of their abhorrent views (and behavior). With county level data after the election, we may see that I'm wrong or right, don't know. 

I'm sorry to learn about your father-in-law. Mine is in the same situation.

 

 

Edge cases? Buddy I’ve got some bad news for you. Like 10% of millennials believe in flat earth. 
 

https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/conspiracy-vs-science-survey-us-public-beliefs

 

Sorry to hear about your FIL as well. Life can be brutal. 

IMG_0230.webp

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How confident are we that Osborn will be a somewhat reliable 'D' vote in the Senate and not pull a Munchkin or 'Dangerous Creature'?

Ahem. 
 

No one knows shit about fuck 

7 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

If this election results in thousands of women divorcing their mediocre, overbearing husbands, I'd call that a win.

Bumble is gonna be wild lol

2 hours ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

They can all pry the last bag of Cool Ranch Doritos from my cold dead hands

Those used to be my go to for snack chips.  That was until that smallish bag shown in the picture went up to $5.99.  Haven't bought a bag in over two years; fuck 'em.

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How confident are we that Osborn will be a somewhat reliable 'D' vote in the Senate and not pull a Munchkin or 'Dangerous Creature'?

We just need him to be a D vote for majority leader, but he would be a headache. But he can be placated with good union legislation, veterans support, legal weed, etc 

 

14 minutes ago, quigley said:

Yeah, so that's the one obvious problem with Selzer's strategy. We don't know here response rate and whether we can trust it is reflective of the voting population of Iowa.

We are all skeptical of Harris up 3 in Iowa, but her track record speaks for itself. She knows her state. 

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How confident are we that Osborn will be a somewhat reliable 'D' vote in the Senate and not pull a Munchkin or 'Dangerous Creature'?

All I care about is judges for the first two years of the (potential) Harris term. Judicial votes (non-SCOTUS) don't get a lot of press. Hopefully he votes with the Dems on those.

2026 Senate map is a little better so Dems hopefully won't need him.

8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How confident are we that Osborn will be a somewhat reliable 'D' vote in the Senate and not pull a Munchkin or 'Dangerous Creature'?

Better than the person he's running against.

19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

One reason pollsters might be failing to pick up what and Seltzer picked up in Iowa, is a lot of women are afraid to say they are voting for Harris. Sharing stories yesterday after knocking doors in Pennsylvania, can't tell you the number of canvassers who had wives standing in the background while speaking to the husband and having them mouth something to the effect that they were voting for Harris. Or if they answered the door, they pretended to not say who they were voting for out loud and then whispered they were voting for Harris. It's kind of heartbreaking actually.

How is she picking up these voters but other polls are not?

10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Edge cases? Buddy I’ve got some bad news for you. Like 10% of millennials believe in flat earth. 
 

Well, if they're hot, i'd probably listen (am i doing this right?)

12 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Try having those older white women  be a part of your normal dating age pool demographic when they trend Trumpy in our very Republican state.  

I have legitimate non-dirty old man reasons for sometimes dating younger women here.  All of Jefferson parish and most of Orleans Lakeview area are all very maga.  Which almost always means most of their friends relatives and neighbors are too.  After several experiments giving people the benefit of the doubt, I no longer do that as it is a waste of time.

That said, I hear the same thing from liberal women in very Trumpy areas. I dated an age appropriate lady from Tennessee for a while and she said she’s essentially not dating anymore because every man she meets is a huge Trump supporter.   

What I’m trying to say is we’re missing making money on creating a political themed dating app. 

Man, you need to date ladies that live in the FQ, Garden District, or Uptown.  

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