Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

Featured Replies

14 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Trump beat Biden by 8.2 points in Iowa, so you're close.

I threw out the worthless Stein / Jorgensen, etc votes because I like to commit fraud.

  • Replies 56.6k
  • Views 3.7m
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

  • Clintonaldo
    Clintonaldo

    Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

  • Old Freak Nasty
    Old Freak Nasty

    I am an American Indian, born in rural Pennsylvania while my dad attended Penn State for graduate school in the 70s.  He was accepted by all on campus, but encountered plenty of racism when outside of

Posted Images

  • Popular Post
1 minute ago, F250 said:

I'm pretty sure someone here works for a marketing firm that has a contract with Chili's. Or the Chili's 3 for me compared to fast food prices discussion really took on a life of it's own.

I was actually thinking earlier today that at some point, someone doing research at Chili's will do a Texas based websearch about mentions and stumble upon this thread with pure bewilderment.  For some reason that made me very happy.  

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The man who accurately called 2022 Senate and 2023 SCOPA has spoken

 


for us that said Fuck Musk and deleted Twitter what do his other posts say?

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

  • Popular Post
Just now, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

Tiffany Trump to swing enough voters in California

  • Popular Post
1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

Is that his cell block number?

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

gator is a star.  she'll let him do it.

Everything about that dress says, “I’m sick of being a trophy wife in this damn family, and I want to pursue my long-time dream of being a stranger fossil fucker!!”

1 hour ago, quigley said:

Trolls gonna troll. I'm NOT taking it "with a grain of salt" because it's total bullshit.

 

@WBT I and others here have trashed Nate Silver here for weeks.

Long story short: he don't know shit about fuck because he's putting BAD DATA into his models. Plus he works for Peter Thiel now.

If you know this and are still quoting him, sorry. Even if he's right (and I don't think he is), it's luck not skill this time.

I think it's quite pissible a lot of pollsters saw understating trump support for a 3rd straight election as an existential threat to their livelihoods and have overcorrected.  But that's not Silver’s fault 

  • Popular Post
4 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

This thread is delivering.

Surly showing up at Chili’s on Wednesday.

tumblr_ne4k5gVNHA1rljgjjo1_1280.jpg

  • Popular Post

 

 

45 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

IMHO he looked tired, but in that 'good kinda tired' very chill kinda way. Towards the end he said he thought they could win all 7 swing states.

Edited by wood

4 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

He has to win AZ, Wis, Mich, and NC

  • Popular Post
2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

IMG_3669.webp.a81922c6b93fe51e22709f479f81aa3c.webp

“Look, I only need you to find me 357,487 votes….”

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

He has to win AZ, Wis, Mich, and NC

womp-womp.gif

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Everything about that dress says, “I’m sick of being a trophy wife in this damn family, and I want to pursue my long-time dream of being a stranger fossil fucker!!”

I don't know about you, but I've been told no a lot in my life, but that doesn't dissuade me.  Now comb your hair over and shoot your shot.  

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The man who accurately called 2022 Senate and 2023 SCOPA has spoken

 

🦅 Pennsylvania - Final Thoughts It's been a long election cycle with ups and downs, but my gut feelings + data are about the same as they were in August. I think VP Harris is favored to win PA by 2 pts, give or take 1 while Senator Casey wins by 4-5. Let's break down why. ⬇️

There are limitations to how much more Trump can squeeze out of those rural areas without cracking their small urban centers - IE, State College while facing off against high turnout overall. Some data points for this include the WA primary, Selzer, the PA district polls, etc.

Concurrently, the suburbs (SEPA and co.) are highly likely to shift left again. They've done so unbrokenly in every cycle since '16 and absent decent racedep, how do you counter additional raw volume from, say, Montgomery? You look to rurals, which I think stay somewhat static.

Relatedly, the herculean effort on the part of PA Dems to keep margins in those areas down add up statewide. The ground game comparison is not close. If Trump wins, it's going to be because nothing on an organizational level had an effect - incumbent govt struggles post-COVID.

However, we do have data that points to late breakers going hard for Harris as well as her holding up weirdly well with seniors and good margins with women. Subsequently, Trump's ability to surge turnout from his base isn't going to make this thing a blowout, IMO.

Fundamentally, nearly everything suggests Harris is favored except for some polling, most of which has been breaking for her in the home stretch. You can't just run scared of assuming that polls miss for Trump again without evaluating the context of why.

Many of them have made great strides to not underestimate the GOP - modified LV screens, '20 recall, nuking Philly (lol), etc. to the point where I feel it's more likely they've slightly overcorrected. Way too many ties too before this week.

Congressionally, I expect Casey to outrun Harris by a point or two while McCormick underruns Trump by a similar amount, partially due to there being multiple right-wing 3rd parties on the ballot, hence the delta. And it's Bob Casey. I'd be surprised if he loses.

For House races, I think Wild in PA-07 and Deluzio in -17 will be fine. Fitzpatrick survives and Cartwright in -08 probably has enough juice to pull it off again, but we'll see. Perry likely barely survives, but if Harris wins and by more than expected, he'll have a problem.

The row offices are more contingent on how the top of the ticket does. DePasquale for AG is in a good spot while Treasurer and Auditor are contingent on a big enough win margin upward.

For state leg, Dems are slightly favored to keep the House, but there are a handful of marginal seats. Still, in an environment expected to be better than '22, it's likelier than not that they can hang on. State Senate leans GOP absent Laughlin in SD-49 crashing and burning.

And that's my read on things, as far as tomorrow is concerned. Who knows? I could be horribly wrong about the state of things. Happy to be and probably will be the longer I cover PA elections. But I trust my gut and what I see - it served me well in '22 and '23.

And frankly, if I could at least go 1 for 2 for the POTUS/PA SEN races, I'd be ecstatic. I've done the best I can; it's up to the voters and both campaigns now. Wish I may to be a perfect oracle, but I'm not J. Ann Selzer. Get some sleep. Long day tomorrow

15 minutes ago, MaxHorn said:

We are definitely driving out to Arlington for a visit to Forever Young records. It’s his happy place (and mine too!). That should take up a few hours.

Ever taken him to Josey Records? 

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

“Holding up weirdly well with seniors”

Seriously? Are these guys completely blind to the republican rhetoric in this race? Or do they think voters pay zero attention to it and expect them to do what they did 4 years ago? 
 

Just ridiculous 

13 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think it's quite pissible a lot of pollsters saw understating trump support for a 3rd straight election as an existential threat to their livelihoods and have overcorrected.  But that's not Silver’s fault 

It's not his fault, but it'll fuck up his model

Plus he's an asshole who's working for an asshole who's got a significant skate stake in GOP win, so fuck him

Edited by quigley

That reads like a blowout and not a +2. 

32 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

What a sad, pathetic existence.  She went from Fox News to NBC with her own daytime talk show (and $15-20M per year) to SiriusXM and having to lie about Trump’s “stamina” at a busted rally before he gets his ass kicked.

 

She went from one of the instigators of Me Too to this.

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

“Holding up weirdly well with seniors”

Seriously? Are these guys completely blind to the republican rhetoric in this race? Or do they think voters pay zero attention to it and expect them to do what they did 4 years ago? 
 

Just ridiculous 

That's exactly what they expect. That's how their models let them "correct" for low response rates. It's all bullshit. 

Just now, quigley said:

It's not his fault, but it'll fuck up his model

Plus he's an asshole who's working for an asshole who's got a significant steak in GOP win, so fuck him


 

steak GIF

1 minute ago, Firemans4Horn said:


 

steak GIF

too much chilil's talk -- fixed

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I don't know about you, but I've been told no a lot in my life, but that doesn't dissuade me.  Now comb your hair over and shoot your shot.  

Comb over? Like a werewolf drinking a piña colada at Trader Vicks, my hair is perfect. 

The picture does not show her two year old daughter, and I haven’t turned the TV on yet, but I think it has kids movies, so maybe it’ll work.

Just now, Dahobbs said:

That's exactly what they expect. That's how their models let them "correct" for low response rates. It's all bullshit. 

Hey guys people in this state voted for Trump + X 4 years ago so Kamala +X has to be wrong. We need to re-weight this thing until it matches our expected outcome

23 minutes ago, quigley said:

You could watch OU-Texas highlights. I recommend the vintages 1986, 87, 96, 2000, 01, 03, 11, 12, 20, 21, or 23.

w=500

  • Popular Post
12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

He has to win AZ, Wis, Mich, and NC

Losing PA but winning WI and MI would be a helluva parlor trick.

18 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

Another January 6th. 

  • Popular Post
6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I was actually thinking earlier today that at some point, someone doing research at Chili's will do a Texas based websearch about mentions and stumble upon this thread with pure bewilderment.  For some reason that made me very happy.  

And that is how the Chili's Baby Back Ribs Texas Longhorns NIL deal was started.

Next year's Chili's commercial.

*Texas Defense begins singing*

"I want my babyback, babyback. babyback, babyback"

*Arch steps in singing*

"Chiliii’s baby back ribs!"

*Camera cuts to Derka*

"Barbecue sauce!"

4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Ever taken him to Josey Records? 

Of course! We hit the LBJ location regularly and have even made a trip or two to the (much smaller) Plano location. There's an H.E.B. near the Plano Josey and he loves that place too. He's definitely my kid.

  • Popular Post

I went for a long run today along ocean drive.  Counted about 30 Harris signs and one Trump sign.  Advantage aggy.

 

 We’re. Going to. Win… Convincingly

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Losing PA but winning WI and MI would be a helluva parlor trick.

Yeah if he loses PA he's fucked

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Comb over? Like a werewolf drinking a piña colada at Trader Vicks, my hair is perfect. 

The picture does not show her two year old daughter, and I haven’t turned the TV on yet, but I think it has kids movies, so maybe it’ll work.

Well having a prior child is just an indicator that a woman is familiar with sex.   So she may not be familiar with whatever the hell it is I do.   

  • Popular Post

night crew checking in. ready to make a mess and leave without cleaning it up. 

Season 3 Nbc GIF by The Office

3 minutes ago, Radical Larry said:

Another January 6th. 

Cause that worked so well last time

Just now, henrygandorf said:

night crew checking in. ready to make a mess and leave without cleaning it up. 

Season 3 Nbc GIF by The Office

Is this about the Chili’s bathroom after Wednesday?

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

w=500

Once Trump goes down, I'll take you and your boricua hussy...but FOCUS, kill the orange menace first!!!

  • Author
27 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Holy shit. That’s a mid-to-late 80s Black Angus restaurant/bar dance floor. I waited tables there as a teen. Hahhhahahaha 

 

Was it anything like this?

 

Teacher inservice tomorrow.  I think I'm just going to go for a half day.  

So what am I supposed to do tomorrow afternoon?  Something about birds?  And Chilis Wednesday? I need instructions. 

19 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Everything about that dress says, “I’m sick of being a trophy wife in this damn family, and I want to pursue my long-time dream of being a stranger fossil fucker!!”

She’ll probably say no. But what if she says yes?

Gotta shoot that shot

Seeing on social media Bernie (and Van Jones) were on CNN and being very dejected, almost admitting Harris is going to lose.

 

anyone watch and hear what they were really saying?

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Is this about the Chili’s bathroom after Wednesday?

if we hit all the chilis at once, they’ll never catch us. it’s the perfect crime. 

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Was it anything like this?

 

I almost posted this transcript. Well done. 
 

Oh you’ll each get your own!

Day crew checking out. Y’all hold down the fort. Got a big day tomorrow 

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Was it anything like this?

 

Exactly like that 

So Joe Rogan endorsed Trump. Just another Musk-loving Bro Fascist.
I'm glad Kamala blew him off. Fuck that fascist. 
 

Rogan is what he was always gonna be. A simple-minded shallow thinking historically ignorant tool for fascism.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.