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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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#54851
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’s a small rural town almost in Canada. It’s super weird, period. It’s just fun 

And judging by the stream, they only have enough electricity to run 4 small lamps and a very dim overhead light.

Edited by OU Sucks

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    Clintonaldo

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    Old Freak Nasty

    I am an American Indian, born in rural Pennsylvania while my dad attended Penn State for graduate school in the 70s.  He was accepted by all on campus, but encountered plenty of racism when outside of

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#54852
35 minutes ago, Vito Andolini said:

She’s objectively doing great, especially when considering it’s almost midnight in Pennsylvania after what must have been an exhausting day, capping an exhausting 107 day crusade to save the fucking democracy. She’s been a real surprise, whether it was the convention or the debate. She’s been a fantastic candidate.

Agreed; if we somehow lose; its an indictment on our system and time to throw in the towel. Kamala has run it perfectly; if that's not enough; it's on us. And that will be a sad reflection 

#54853
11 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It's one of those quaint New Hampshah traditions to keep your mind off the Cthuhloid Interstellar Horrors that roam the dark sides of the frozen hills, caring not for Earth or Man or his treasured democracy.

Goddamn fish people are thick in the old woods of New England. 

#54854
25 minutes ago, Pancho said:
Decision Desk HQ gave Biden an 87 percent chance of winning in 2020.If my memory serves, this is closer to their 2016 projections.

 

But do they know shit about fuck?

#54855

Trump is telling his horde tonight that he's ahead by hundreds of thousands of votes in early voting.  He's used to having to catch up on Tuesday, in spite of being cheated.  Etc.

They're gonna absolutely lose their shit if he loses.  

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#54857
It's published.We ran 80,000 simulations tonight.Harris won in 40,012.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa

Lol

#54858
1 minute ago, UncleSonny said:
It's published.We ran 80,000 simulations tonight.Harris won in 40,012.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa

Lol

There you go. 50.015 to 49.985

#54859
2 hours ago, NAVY said:

Holy shit. That’s a mid-to-late 80s Black Angus restaurant/bar dance floor. I waited tables there as a teen. Hahhhahahaha 

 

Square Cow Fun Bar!

#54860
4 minutes ago, UncleSonny said:
It's published.We ran 80,000 simulations tonight.Harris won in 40,012.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa

Lol


image.gif.ea5c766bfc56a2d5212b72f44cd000f5.gif

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#54862
58 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Woulda been a lot cheaper to make a fake Cybertruck out of refrigerator boxes and spray paint.

Only because I want it to be, my opinion is that the person rented it and had fun for a day.

 

39 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Doubtful in Georgia.  8.3% was 2020 non voter, which basically means it will break in party lines by location tomorrow.  The goldmine would be EV exit polling, but I haven't seen much of anything worthwhile from that.  Also, only about 250k of mailin this go around, most all was in person ev.  

Gonna be a long day.

siap - thought I'd deleted this but it popped back in my post. 

image.png

Edited by Chopper

#54863

what a sad, sad country we’ve become ….

A person eats inside of a restaurant with plywood covering the windows near the White House in Washington, U.S., November 4, 2024. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

 

#54864

So just to be clear, a ton of these pollsters are just maga fakes or foreign fakes attempting to fuck with the election. 

Then the ones that aren't fakes are all people believing they have to adjust and rig their numbers far to the red to get the results closer to the median so they don't look completely stupid no matter who wins?

And the one poll that doesn't ske the numbers by the lady in Iowa who just says fuck all that nonsense has Harris wiping the floor with trump in lilly white Iowa?

Is that where we stand?

#54865
3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

what a sad, sad country we’ve become ….

A person eats inside of a restaurant with plywood covering the windows near the White House in Washington, U.S., November 4, 2024. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

 

Become?

#54866
49 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

bwahahahahahahaha

Difficult time. The US elections are in a few hours. Just want to wish you all peace, guys. But if things go bad, save your families. You know where to go. We do care of YOU. God bless.

 

russia ages people in a hurry

#54867
19 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Only because I want it to be, my opinion is that the person rented it and had fun for a day.

 

Gonna be a long day.

siap - thought I'd deleted this but it popped back in my post. 

image.png

Hopefully everything runs smoothly here tomorrow, especially with the EV returns coming back timely at 8 est/7 central, which I believe it will.  I don't think it will all hit exactly at the same time, but we should get some great early indicators.  I listed this in the prediction thread a while ago, but I'm really looking at 3 counties here that I think will tell the story, not only for Georgia, but perhaps even nationally.  These are 3 red counties in northern Metro Atlanta, Cherokee, Forsyth, and Hall Counties, none will flip, but they are big enough to matter while small enough to be some of the earlier ones to report.  If any of these, and of course preferably all of them report slippages in R support it will mean a couple of things, the first being that Trump most likely can't win in Georgia, and the second being that just how big the drift is from Trump.  I listed the prior percentages in the prediction thread, but from memory if he doesn't exceed 65% in these 3, I really like our chances here.  

#54868
34 minutes ago, UncleSonny said:
It's published.We ran 80,000 simulations tonight.Harris won in 40,012.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa

Lol

confused what a bitch GIF by Distractify Video

#54869
57 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It's one of those quaint New Hampshah traditions to keep your mind off the Cthuhloid Interstellar Horrors that roam the dark sides of the frozen hills, caring not for Earth or Man or his treasured democracy.

andy-walsh-offering-to-cthulhu-by-andy-walsh-1700px-sig.thumb.jpg.e907baba2d3d799abc1b0774fcd67e6b.jpg

#54871
Walker: It stops on Tuesday when we vote for my friend and your friend Donald Trump Jr… Donald Trump. Jonald J. Trump

 

#54872
6 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

So just to be clear, a ton of these pollsters are just maga fakes or foreign fakes attempting to fuck with the election. 

Then the ones that aren't fakes are all people believing they have to adjust and rig their numbers far to the red to get the results closer to the median so they don't look completely stupid no matter who wins?

And the one poll that doesn't ske the numbers by the lady in Iowa who just says fuck all that nonsense has Harris wiping the floor with trump in lilly white Iowa?

Is that where we stand?

Sezler is an outlier, she does her own thing, gets real data, and politics be damned.  Shockingly enough, that simple approach with no bullshit seems to be pretty accurate.  

There are others trying to emulate her, but frankly they get drowned out, partly by partisan polls commissioned and paid for by both parties (though far more from Republicans, who to boot weaponize them), and then slapdicks like Silver who has monetized the polling business.  So the real problem is, you only have a handful of people doing actual real work, and they are completely drowned out by an old asshole trying to make a buck.  The problem with herding is, all the monetized polls figure they can't be hurt if they are in the ballpark as everyone else, so now, the actually polling data is secondary to being near the pack with everyone else.  So the idea of polling aggregation is then completely fucking useless because the data is secondary.  

In short, it's a vicious circle jerk of stupidity.  In fact the circle jerk is probably better time spent, at least at the end there is a tangible result.  

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#54873
1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

bwahahahahahahaha

Difficult time. The US elections are in a few hours. Just want to wish you all peace, guys. But if things go bad, save your families. You know where to go. We do care of YOU. God bless.

 

 

Does that Russian Morris Code translate into English? I'm asking because the number of times that woman blinks makes it look like she's in distress.

And, to be clear, I hold absolutely zero sympathy for her if she's under any sort of duress.

 

  • Popular Post
#54874

#truth

Why does it feel like the whole country is waiting for a STD test result?

 

#54875

Would you have *EVER* in your life have thought anyone who was a hair's distance away from The People's House would do this sort of thing in punlic?

Remember when Republicans were freaking out because Obama wore a tan suit or they clutched pearls when Clinton answered the "boxers or briefs" question?

Messenger_creation_306BFB47-A001-4873-A155-8F1DD9929489.gif

#54876
4 hours ago, immamac said:

Night crew. Tonight is your final night before the intense work begins. We are counting on you to bring maximum effort. 

Tomorrow morning

IMG_0296.jpeg.f0f4eabed15cb24f522b9832d89af648.jpeg

 

#54877
18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Sezler is an outlier, she does her own thing, gets real data, and politics be damned.  Shockingly enough, that simple approach with no bullshit seems to be pretty accurate.  

There are others trying to emulate her, but frankly they get drowned out, partly by partisan polls commissioned and paid for by both parties (though far more from Republicans, who to boot weaponize them), and then slapdicks like Silver who has monetized the polling business.  So the real problem is, you only have a handful of people doing actual real work, and they are completely drowned out by an old asshole trying to make a buck.  The problem with herding is, all the monetized polls figure they can't be hurt if they are in the ballpark as everyone else, so now, the actually polling data is secondary to being near the pack with everyone else.  So the idea of polling aggregation is then completely fucking useless because the data is secondary.  

In short, it's a vicious circle jerk of stupidity.  In fact the circle jerk is probably better time spent, at least at the end there is a tangible result.  

I'm not a statistician but I did have to take a few higher level probability and statistics courses for my undergrad 20 years ago. From what I remember the key to all of it is the quality of input data. That's a very difficult thing to obtain, but the majority of the work and attention to detail should be put into obtain as close to a representative sample as possible without poisoning with bias. If you put garbage data in you're going to get garbage data out. 

I don't follow election polling at all so don't know how they source their data, but it seems Selzer is the closest to quality data input by 20+ years of experience sourcing data from her smallish state. Then the only adjustments needed are adjusting the sample demographics to mirror the registered voter demographics. 

If these other pollsters are taking results they don't feel are quality enough and adjusting them to mirror prior results 4 years ago that's purely invalid, garbage data. That's omitting everything that's happened in the last 4 years. Which in this case is more change in this arena than I believe has ever happened in a 4 year period in the history of the country other than the civil war. 

What we need is about 10 Selzers, one for each of the swing states, that put all their effort and a scientific attention to detail into doing it the right way in their individual states. Right now all we have is one great sample and a shit ton of biased, garbage data it appears. 

#54878
12 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

What we need is about 10 Selzers, one for each of the swing states, that put all their effort and a scientific attention to detail into doing it the right way in their individual states. Right now all we have is one great sample and a shit ton of biased, garbage data it appears. 

Yes she only polls in Iowa so it seems she's built up quite a great data set to draw from. She apparently doesn't even hire out for polls in other states. Just sticks to Iowa.

 

#54879
15 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I'm not a statistician but I did have to take a few higher level probability and statistics courses for my undergrad 20 years ago. From what I remember the key to all of it is the quality of input data. That's a very difficult thing to obtain, but the majority of the work and attention to detail should be put into obtain as close to a representative sample as possible without poisoning with bias. If you put garbage data in you're going to get garbage data out. 

I don't follow election polling at all so don't know how they source their data, but it seems Selzer is the closest to quality data input by 20+ years of experience sourcing data from her smallish state. Then the only adjustments needed are adjusting the sample demographics to mirror the registered voter demographics. 

If these other pollsters are taking results they don't feel are quality enough and adjusting them to mirror prior results 4 years ago that's purely invalid, garbage data. That's omitting everything that's happened in the last 4 years. Which in this case is more change in this arena than I believe has ever happened in a 4 year period in the history of the country other than the civil war. 

What we need is about 10 Selzers, one for each of the swing states, that put all their effort and a scientific attention to detail into doing it the right way in their individual states. Right now all we have is one great sample and a shit ton of biased, garbage data it appears. 

Well some polls are doing things like assuming a 77% white vote, skewing way whiter than normal, which pulls the number towards Trump.  

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#54881
Been dreading this day for more than 3 years. In 22 we blunted their red wave and saved the Blue Wall from a bunch of insurrectionists.In 23 we reflipped the VA leg and won the WI Supreme Court by wedging Dobbs. But it all comes down to this. God Bless the 🇺🇸

 

#54882
5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well some polls are doing things like assuming a 77% white vote, skewing way whiter than normal, which pulls the number towards Trump.  

That's inventing demographics that don't exist. That's not incompetent, it's flat out nefarious. 

It's been quite the shocking revelation that something as big as the USA presidential election with all the billions of dollars tied up in the whole thing only has a single lady in bumbfuck Iowa that conducts representative sample election polls correctly. 

#54884

Worst of this would be Herschel in that role.
& Screwing up the 🍊🤡's name 2× in one event is not surprising.

Screenshot_20241105_012642_Chrome.jpg

#54886
5 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

Anyone who gives a shit what that toddler thinks was already voting for him

 Yeah, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of Rogan fanbois are not registered to vote.

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#54887

So what’s Night Crew doing?  If you need some suggestions, here’s a few

  • Watching Parks and Rec (or Agatha Harkness)
  • Enjoying the rain if you are lucky
  • Plotting where to dump the next body near or in Town Lake
  • Masturbatin’ to Louise Perry videos where she talks about declining birthrates
  • Checking on their Canadian duel-citizenship application
  • Trolling relatives on Facebook with videos of Trump going down on a microphone 
  • Watching videos of 20-somethings working on cruise ships and realizing you should have done that 25 years ago,
  • Watching Stacey Millner-Collins yoga videos
  • Watching Amtrak videos on YouTube and planning trips you’ll never take
  • Watching Usagi Electric videos on YouTube and plotting how to fully restore a TI-99/4A
  • Analyzing the votes of 6 people in a New Hampshire village 
  • Watching real estate videos from New England for houses twice as big and a third the cost of Austin houses
  • Playing Ticket to Ride online
  • Loading up a few dozen tabs on your phone for tracking various state elections
  • Planning what GIFs to post on relatives’ Facebook pages when states start being called
#54888
Republicans: “All elections should be held like Dixville Notch: written on paper, hand counted, and only white people.”

 

#54892

Some hopium to start the day 

So, in the real world: - Dems are winning the early vote not the Rs- betting markets? WTF- Harris just had her best week of polling- Dems have overperforming polls since Dobbs. Poll error more likely to favor usRs got nothing and are losing. https://t.co/DYz0RCI34b

 

#54893
4 hours ago, C-Man said:
Walker: It stops on Tuesday when we vote for my friend and your friend Donald Trump Jr… Donald Trump. Jonald J. Trump

 

 

#54894
3 hours ago, Chopper said:

image.png.4078621096c259899592f665e02bf435.png

If true patriots had only donated $5 each to Trump yesterday, Melania would have shown up. Her appearance fee to support her husband is only in the mid 6 figures.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie

  • Popular Post
#54896
3 hours ago, Hermanator said:

I'm not a statistician but I did have to take a few higher level probability and statistics courses for my undergrad 20 years ago. From what I remember the key to all of it is the quality of input data. That's a very difficult thing to obtain, but the majority of the work and attention to detail should be put into obtain as close to a representative sample as possible without poisoning with bias. If you put garbage data in you're going to get garbage data out. 

I don't follow election polling at all so don't know how they source their data, but it seems Selzer is the closest to quality data input by 20+ years of experience sourcing data from her smallish state. Then the only adjustments needed are adjusting the sample demographics to mirror the registered voter demographics. 

If these other pollsters are taking results they don't feel are quality enough and adjusting them to mirror prior results 4 years ago that's purely invalid, garbage data. That's omitting everything that's happened in the last 4 years. Which in this case is more change in this arena than I believe has ever happened in a 4 year period in the history of the country other than the civil war. 

What we need is about 10 Selzers, one for each of the swing states, that put all their effort and a scientific attention to detail into doing it the right way in their individual states. Right now all we have is one great sample and a shit ton of biased, garbage data it appears. 

 

6ff06a70-5af2-4c9e-9ed2-4bea8955467c.png

#54897
4 hours ago, Hermanator said:

I'm not a statistician

You don't say

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