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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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Working hard to close strong with women…

 

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  • I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

  • Clintonaldo
    Clintonaldo

    Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

  • Old Freak Nasty
    Old Freak Nasty

    I am an American Indian, born in rural Pennsylvania while my dad attended Penn State for graduate school in the 70s.  He was accepted by all on campus, but encountered plenty of racism when outside of

Posted Images

Tonight, we're all night shift. 

image.jpeg.68f13c5f8af002a351ef93dedc5502b2.jpeg

I’m going to be honest. Night shift sucked last night.  

Just put in a parlay for Bowling Green, Miami-OH, and Kamala Harris… LFG!

Probably going to clock out for a bit, not that I ever have anything to say. Anyway, we'll soon find out what kind of country we are. 

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I hope to wake up over here in Taiwan to some great fucking news.  

2 minutes ago, YChang said:

I hope to wake up over here in Taiwan to some great fucking news.  

My wife's cousin lives in Taipei City and is days away from bringing a baby into this world. Pucker factor 5 all the way around. 

ah so this is what the end of the thread looks like...  

6 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Sezler is an outlier, she does her own thing, gets real data, and politics be damned.  Shockingly enough, that simple approach with no bullshit seems to be pretty accurate.  

There are others trying to emulate her, but frankly they get drowned out, partly by partisan polls commissioned and paid for by both parties (though far more from Republicans, who to boot weaponize them), and then slapdicks like Silver who has monetized the polling business.  So the real problem is, you only have a handful of people doing actual real work, and they are completely drowned out by an old asshole trying to make a buck.  The problem with herding is, all the monetized polls figure they can't be hurt if they are in the ballpark as everyone else, so now, the actually polling data is secondary to being near the pack with everyone else.  So the idea of polling aggregation is then completely fucking useless because the data is secondary.  

In short, it's a vicious circle jerk of stupidity.  In fact the circle jerk is probably better time spent, at least at the end there is a tangible result.  

I finally got around to reading the Des Moines Register article.

The BIG difference between Selzer is that she got 808 respondents from only 1038 calls. This is an UNBELIEVABLE response rate. NYT/Siena reported 2.5% response rate.

15 - 20% would be amazing, but she's getting 80% ??? Amazing if true. Leaves me wondering what makes her dial sheet so much better than everyone else's.

Ummmm, it is election day.  Election day in NYC started at 6 AM EST.  Why is the election day thread still locked?

34 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

I’m going to be honest. Night shift sucked last night.  

For a second I thought this was a text from Colin Allred.


GOOD MORNING MOTHERFUCKERS!
IT'S

ELECTION DAY!

 

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I’m fucking excited. This turd is about to finally get flushed 

7 minutes ago, quigley said:

I finally got around to reading the Des Moines Register article.

The BIG difference between Selzer is that she got 808 respondents from only 1038 calls. This is an UNBELIEVABLE response rate. NYT/Siena reported 2.5% response rate.

15 - 20% would be amazing, but she's getting 80% ??? Amazing if true. Leaves me wondering what makes her dial sheet so much better than everyone else's.

We’re in a position of hoping she’s not faking it.  Unfortunately I’ve known a lot of women in my days, and they ALL fake it. 

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FYI, more than 78 million Americans cast their vote during early voting. That is more Americans than voted for Dotard in 2020. Fuck Trump.

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

We’re in a position of hoping she’s not faking it.  Unfortunately I’ve known a lot of women in my days, and they ALL fake it. 

Women having to fake it is more of an idictment about you and your ability than it is about them.

Edited by PenelopeWitherspoon

Off to a very inauspicious start to Election Day, in too big a hurry just fat fingered my computer password 1 too many times and am locked out...great

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Just now, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Off to a very inauspicious start to Election Day, in too big a hurry just fat fingered my computer password 1 too many times and am locked out...great

Like you were going to do any work today anyway.

5 hours ago, Hermanator said:

I'm not a statistician but I did have to take a few higher level probability and statistics courses for my undergrad 20 years ago. From what I remember the key to all of it is the quality of input data. That's a very difficult thing to obtain, but the majority of the work and attention to detail should be put into obtain as close to a representative sample as possible without poisoning with bias. If you put garbage data in you're going to get garbage data out. 

I don't follow election polling at all so don't know how they source their data, but it seems Selzer is the closest to quality data input by 20+ years of experience sourcing data from her smallish state. Then the only adjustments needed are adjusting the sample demographics to mirror the registered voter demographics. 

If these other pollsters are taking results they don't feel are quality enough and adjusting them to mirror prior results 4 years ago that's purely invalid, garbage data. That's omitting everything that's happened in the last 4 years. Which in this case is more change in this arena than I believe has ever happened in a 4 year period in the history of the country other than the civil war. 

What we need is about 10 Selzers, one for each of the swing states, that put all their effort and a scientific attention to detail into doing it the right way in their individual states. Right now all we have is one great sample and a shit ton of biased, garbage data it appears. 

100% spot on, and as it turns out if you aggregate bullshit, it turns out, it's bullshit.  

Here's hoping for a great day for democracy.  She's got this!

2 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Off to a very inauspicious start to Election Day, in too big a hurry just fat fingered my computer password 1 too many times and am locked out...great

It's 5 minutes bro (or sometimes 15).

Do some pushups and squats for Kamala.

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It's go time!

 

image.gif.6ee1ef21520bc30341925b038e31d8db.gif

5 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Off to a very inauspicious start to Election Day, in too big a hurry just fat fingered my computer password 1 too many times and am locked out...great

Lucky!

Anyone got some of these we can borrow for that election day thread?

 

shopping?q=tbn:ANd9GcTKt5MbYSCxJZ8zhWcWh5-7baCpmhApo0Brj9OdrccVfvDb9udfappuyV0pDV-FPg0Zgrqm2Xn1h0d8E3eOXbdVKpLurlh346PtJqdQ8PJ0XIeSVYcHVXcbmw

Just now, choripan said:

Anyone got some of these we can borrow for that election day thread?

 

shopping?q=tbn:ANd9GcTKt5MbYSCxJZ8zhWcWh5-7baCpmhApo0Brj9OdrccVfvDb9udfappuyV0pDV-FPg0Zgrqm2Xn1h0d8E3eOXbdVKpLurlh346PtJqdQ8PJ0XIeSVYcHVXcbmw

Eric Andre GIF

9 hours ago, F250 said:

And that is how the Chili's Baby Back Ribs Texas Longhorns NIL deal was started.

Next year's Chili's commercial.

*Texas Defense begins singing*

"I want my babyback, babyback. babyback, babyback"

*Arch steps in singing*

"Chiliii’s baby back ribs!"

*Camera cuts to Derka*

"Barbecue sauce!"

I have eaten BBQ with Derka, so this slams and goes hard.

ETA: "We" should do this... somebody knows Arch.

Edited by Slacks

  • Popular Post

Good morning. Good morning. In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world, and you will be launching the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind. Mankind, that word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interest. Perhaps it's fate that today is the 4th of July, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom. Not from tyranny, oppression or persecution, but from annihilation. We're fighting for our right to live, to exist. And should we win the day, the 4th of July will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day when the world declared in one voice, we will not go quietly into the night. We will not vanish without a fight. We're going to live on. We're going to survive. Today, we celebrate our independence day.

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Well my brothers and sisters, it’s been a hell of a ride with y’all. Let’s see what happens today. 

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Just now, Js1 said:

Well my brothers and sisters, it’s been a hell of a ride with y’all. Let’s see what happens today. 

No worries, with data from the Notch, a full 1/3 of R voters are on pace to crossover.  It's science.  

  • Popular Post
Just now, Js1 said:

Well my brothers and sisters, it’s been a hell of a ride with y’all. Let’s see what happens today. 

Don't worry, we're totally not going to kill you if things don't go as hoped. 

Marvel Studios Smile GIF by Disney+

15 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

We’re in a position of hoping she’s not faking it.  Unfortunately I’ve known a lot of women in my days, and they ALL fake it. 

That's not how you humble brag my good sir. 

  • Popular Post

ea399faf1038d7217738b5b127d93715.jpg

From the battleground in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania, with all the sincerity in my heart: Get fucked Trump! Our girl Kamala has this.

  • Popular Post

On our AM trader call, our chief economist basically said a Trump victory would hasten the demise of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency due to the fall of the US Economy (negative 1.5% GDP in the first year or two). So, if you are an economics only voter, that shoudl be enough to have you pull the lever for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Well, I've heard that a lot of middle aged men make poor decisions in a vain attempt to hold on to youth.  

 

But I've only heard about that.  

So... don't get the used Porsche?

5 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Good morning. Good morning. In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world, and you will be launching the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind. Mankind, that word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interest. Perhaps it's fate that today is the 4th of July, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom. Not from tyranny, oppression or persecution, but from annihilation. We're fighting for our right to live, to exist. And should we win the day, the 4th of July will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day when the world declared in one voice, we will not go quietly into the night. We will not vanish without a fight. We're going to live on. We're going to survive. Today, we celebrate our independence day.

462400031_8430741713702862_6806031288260

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Don't worry, we're totally not going to kill you if things don't go as hoped. 

Marvel Studios Smile GIF by Disney+

bart simpson GIF

1 minute ago, Slacks said:

So... don't get the used Porsche?

Of course not, the economy spins based on you buying new, and right now financing is a bargain!

  • Popular Post
1 minute ago, heso said:

ea399faf1038d7217738b5b127d93715.jpg

From the battleground in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania, with all the sincerity in my heart: Get fucked Trump! Our girl Kamala has this.

What looks to be a white guy, wearing an Augusta National jacket voting for Kamala in a swing state. It's going to be a fucking landslide!

  • Popular Post
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well my brothers and sisters, it’s been a hell of a ride with y’all. Let’s see what happens today. 

Appreciate all your polling commentary throughout this. I think I speak for a lot of us that it kept us sane through this rollercoaster. Thank you!

 

 

4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

the demise of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency 

This single thing is the entire subtext of this election, in my opinion.

Gonna be a long day.

  • Popular Post
Appreciate all your polling commentary throughout this. I think I speak for a lot of us that it kept us sane through this rollercoaster. Thank you!
 
 

+1. Js1 the easy MVP of this thread.
31 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Ummmm, it is election day.  Election day in NYC started at 6 AM EST.  Why is the election day thread still locked?

immamacpassedout.jpeg

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