March 20, 20241 yr If you correctly pick two #1 seeds who meet in the title game that only gives you 36 points for those two picks. But that means nobody else is getting huge scores from the Final Four so it can still work. Unless someone else gets a 13 seed in the Sweet 16 then they got 39 right there.
March 20, 20241 yr Author 1 minute ago, Huckleberry said: If you correctly pick two #1 seeds who meet in the title game that only gives you 36 points for those two picks. But that means nobody else is getting huge scores from the Final Four so it can still work. Unless someone else gets a 13 seed in the Sweet 16 then they got 39 right there. Yeah but he took one in the 5th round and 1 in the 7th round so that's pretty good value, really. He didn't go too early.
March 20, 20241 yr Author 3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said: Yeah but he took one in the 5th round and 1 in the 7th round so that's pretty good value, really. He didn't go too early. I took Uconn in round 4 b/c I really believe they are going to win the tournament and get me 21 points, which feels like the right time to take a team that you expect to win 10 points, might win 15 and has a fighting shot at 21.
March 20, 20241 yr i really had to fight the urge to draft morehead and longwood back to back. Edited March 20, 20241 yr by shadow_operative
March 20, 20241 yr Author 11 minutes ago, shadow_operative said: i really had to fight the urge to draft morehead and longwood back to back. I responded back with "prepare your anus". Because you could get more head and longwood shoved up your anus. Because you like that stuff. Ha. I'm 12 again. Also, explaining super obvious jokes that everyone gets tediously is the height of humor.
March 21, 20241 yr Everyone made fun of my Longwood pick, but I have history on my side. Huck has his fancy algorithm, I've got sexual innuendo.
March 21, 20241 yr 1 hour ago, HornOnTheBayou said: Everyone made fun of my Longwood pick, but I have history on my side. Huck has his fancy algorithm, I've got sexual innuendo. now that is some solid ANALysis
March 21, 20241 yr Semi-update after the First Four Huckleberry - 89.22 HornOnTheBayou - 71.14 BigOrange1 - 65.09 shadow_operative - 62.38 joeycovers - 62.26 Prepuce of Doom - 60.29 srr50 - 58.71 Wulaw Horn - 49.54
March 21, 20241 yr Today's matchups in tip order #8 Mississippi St. (0, 8.62, srr50 - 42.57%) vs. #9 Michigan St. (0, 16.22, Huckleberry - 57.43%) #6 BYU (0, 19.01, shadow_operative - 80.95%) vs. #11 Duquesne (0, 3.18, srr50 - 19.05%) #3 Creighton (0, 12.49, BigOrange1 - 86.99%) vs. #14 Akron (0, 2.97, BigOrange1 - 13.01%) #2 Arizona (0, 12.22, Huckleberry - 92.76%) vs. #15 Long Beach St. (0, 1.44, shadow_operative - 7.24%) #1 North Carolina (0, 4.64, HornOnTheBayou - 98.91%) vs. #16 Wagner (0, 0.19, srr50 - 1.09%) #3 Illinois (0, 11.10, Wulaw Horn - 94.49%) vs. #14 Morehead St. (0, 1.02, shadow_operative - 5.51%) #6 South Carolina (0, 6.47, Wulaw Horn - 48.05%) vs. #11 Oregon (0, 12.86, joeycovers - 51.95%) #7 Dayton (0, 7.52, BigOrange1 - 50.56%) vs. #10 Nevada (0, 10.83, shadow_operative - 49.44%) #7 Texas (0, 11.12, Wulaw Horn - 57.13%) vs. #10 Colorado St. (0, 9.89, Prepuce of Doom - 42.87%) #3 Kentucky (0, 9.92, shadow_operative - 85.72%) vs. #14 Oakland (0, 2.98, BigOrange1 - 14.28%) #5 Gonzaga (0, 12.85, HornOnTheBayou - 76.22%) vs. #12 McNeese St. (0, 5.40, Prepuce of Doom - 23.78%) #2 Iowa St. (0, 10.25, HornOnTheBayou - 91.31%) vs. #15 South Dakota St. (0, 2.03, joeycovers - 8.69%) #2 Tennessee (0, 10.25, joeycovers - 95.98%) vs. #15 St. Peter's (0, 0.71, Wulaw Horn - 4.02%) #6 Texas Tech (0, 12.21, BigOrange1 - 62.17%) vs. #11 North Carolina St. (0, 9.82, Huckleberry - 37.83%) #4 Kansas (0, 10.31, joeycovers - 73.58%) vs. #13 Samford (0, 6.09, shadow_operative - 26.42%) #7 Washington St. (0, 9.17, Huckleberry - 56.84%) vs. #10 Drake (0, 8.79, HornOnTheBayou - 43.16%)
March 21, 20241 yr Competition is over, send me the money. Next 62 games shouldn't count, let's call it now.
March 21, 20241 yr 47 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: Competition is over, send me the money. Next 62 games shouldn't count, let's call it now. my dad says we should shut it down now. 🤷🏼♂️
March 21, 20241 yr Can't shut it down when it was already shut down. I'm hoping to tie him for the lead later if Arizona can just stay semi-awake.
March 22, 20241 yr Author I was estatic to get Yale btw. Also wanted Grand Canyon. Edited March 22, 20241 yr by Wulaw Horn
March 22, 20241 yr Huck's robot slave is currently winning (29 points and no teams lost), while Derka is down to just two teams with no points on the board. Everyone else is somewhere in between. Edited March 22, 20241 yr by Prepuce of Doom
March 22, 20241 yr On 3/15/2024 at 3:42 PM, shadow_operative said: back to back champ coming in not for three-peat! meant to say “coming in hot”, turned out it was way more accurate this way.
March 22, 20241 yr EVs after day one Huckleberry - 139.58 BigOrange1 - 77.63 joeycovers - 72.67 HornOnTheBayou - 68.53 srr50 - 65.61 Wulaw Horn - 54.32 Prepuce of Doom - 44.39 shadow_operative - 14.12
March 22, 20241 yr Today's matchups #9 Northwestern (0, 8.61, Huckleberry - 47.36%) vs. #8 Florida Atlantic (0, 9.02, Prepuce of Doom - 52.64%) #14 Colgate (0, 1.30, srr50 - 6.90%) vs. #3 Baylor (0, 11.71, Prepuce of Doom - 93.10%) #12 UAB (0, 4.71, Wulaw Horn - 26.22%) vs. #5 San Diego St. (0, 8.95, BigOrange1 - 73.78%) #15 Western Kentucky (0, 2.20, Prepuce of Doom - 10.10%) vs. #2 Marquette (0, 8.78, HornOnTheBayou - 89.90%) #16 Stetson (0, 1.09, Huckleberry - 5.04%) vs. #1 Connecticut (0, 6.01, Wulaw Horn - 94.96%) #11 New Mexico (0, 16.36, srr50 - 52.99%) vs. #6 Clemson (0, 7.19, Wulaw Horn - 47.01%) #13 Yale (0, 2.15, Wulaw Horn - 9.73%) vs. #4 Auburn (0, 20.35, Huckleberry - 90.27%) #10 Colorado (0, 18.85, srr50 - 52.26%) vs. #7 Florida (0, 11.26, HornOnTheBayou - 47.74%) #9 Texas A&M (0, 7.63, srr50 - 44.62%) vs. #8 Nebraska (0, 10.09, joeycovers - 55.38%) #13 Vermont (0, 1.84, joeycovers - 9.30%) vs. #4 Duke (0, 16.15, HornOnTheBayou - 90.70%) #16 Grambling (0, 0.10, Prepuce of Doom - 0.61%) vs. #1 Purdue (0, 7.36, joeycovers - 99.39%) #13 College of Charleston (0, 3.40, shadow_operative - 16.33%) vs. #4 Alabama (0, 15.24, Prepuce of Doom - 83.67%) #16 Longwood (0, 0.74, HornOnTheBayou - 3.30%) vs. #1 Houston (0, 7.73, joeycovers - 96.70%) #12 James Madison (0, 6.12, Prepuce of Doom - 29.94%) vs. #5 Wisconsin (0, 10.35, BigOrange1 - 70.06%) #9 TCU (0, 10.98, Huckleberry - 60.37%) vs. #8 Utah St. (0, 5.38, srr50 - 39.63%) #12 Grand Canyon (0, 7.93, BigOrange1 - 33.01%) vs. #5 St. Mary's (0, 10.72, shadow_operative - 66.99%)
March 22, 20241 yr think i need all 3 of my teams to win today. definitely need 2/3 and it'd be nice if the 12 seed was one of them. tech losing last night was not great for my overall chances in this (but was hilarious so theres that).
March 22, 20241 yr Not sure if you need all of them, I've been where I am now before and then watched every team I had in the second round lose. Long way to go. But Derka definitely needs a St. Mary's national championship and/or a College of Charleston Elite 8 run.
March 22, 20241 yr Northwestern tried to blow it for me but FAU refused to let them. 5-0 start now. 7-1 is possible, Stetson will get blasted of course.
March 22, 20241 yr 19 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: Northwestern tried to blow it for me but FAU refused to let them. 5-0 start now. 7-1 is possible, Stetson will get blasted of course. Hats off to you if you do have a perfect first round!
March 22, 20241 yr Author Yale motherfuckers. Told you I was super pumped to have them and shocked they fell that far.
March 22, 20241 yr On 3/20/2024 at 4:46 PM, Huckleberry said: 1. Auburn, 20.41 - Huckleberry 2. BYU, 19.01 - shadow_operative 3. New Mexico, 16.29 - srr50 and this is why you’ve never won lol.
March 23, 20241 yr 35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: I've won but yes, stupid Auburn. i picked them as my national champion in the shaggy bracket pool and i nearly picked them first overall here. so yes; stupid, stupid auburn.
March 23, 20241 yr Author 8 hours ago, Prepuce of Doom said: Derka. ... Appears to be a 3-4 horse race at this point. I think I have 30 points. @Huckleberry where we at on our likelihood of scoring? I assume I will be down, after this round, to a potential of 18 points for UConn winning it all and everyone else eliminated (maybe Illinois) but hoping this is the one shining moment for me I can dream on having an 11% chance of winning.
March 23, 20241 yr 41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said: I think I have 30 points. @Huckleberry where we at on our likelihood of scoring? I assume I will be down, after this round, to a potential of 18 points for UConn winning it all and everyone else eliminated (maybe Illinois) but hoping this is the one shining moment for me I can dream on having an 11% chance of winning. You are correct. Thanks for pointing that out.
March 23, 20241 yr i think its probably best that we just go ahead and call this thing a wrap right now.
March 23, 20241 yr Trying to get to it. Busy day yesterday and today. Percentages of winning the whole thing come out after Sunday's games though. Edited March 23, 20241 yr by Huckleberry
March 24, 20241 yr Sorry guys, still swamped. Tonight I hope to do the Sweet 16 update. Poster, Current Score, EV Huckleberry, 64, 98.94 BigOrange1, 47, 79.81 HornOnTheBayou, 30, 76.73 srr50, 38, 72.15 Wulaw Horn, 36, 64.49 Prepuce of Doom, 19, 50.49 joeycovers, 23, 44.47 shadow_operative, 0, 0.00 The reason the percentage of winning overall update after today's games is so much better is that my EV up there is largely wrapped up in NC State beating the Marquette/Colorado winner. Edited March 24, 20241 yr by Huckleberry
March 24, 20241 yr Today's Matchups #2 Marquette (2, 9.46, HornOnTheBayou - 58.70%) vs. #10 Colorado (10, 31.64, srr50 - 41.30%) #1 Purdue (1, 7.47, joeycovers - 82.07%) vs. #8 Utah St. (8, 13.18, srr50 - 17.93%) #4 Duke (4, 20.21, HornOnTheBayou - 79.64%) vs. #12 James Madison (12, 18.77, Prepuce of Doom - 20.36%) #3 Baylor (3, 11.89, Prepuce of Doom - 64.37%) vs. #6 Clemson (6, 13.56, Wulaw Horn - 35.63%) #4 Alabama (4, 19.82, Prepuce of Doom - 74.06%) vs. #12 Grand Canyon (12, 20.86, BigOrange1 - 25.94%) #1 Connecticut (1, 7.18, Wulaw Horn - 76.04%) vs. #9 Northwestern (9, 18.31, Huckleberry - 23.96%) #1 Houston (1, 8.30, joeycovers - 80.16%) vs. #9 Texas A&M (9, 16.32, srr50 - 19.84%) #5 San Diego St. (5, 19.94, BigOrange1 - 79.40%) vs. #13 Yale (13, 19.55, Wulaw Horn - 20.60%)
March 25, 20241 yr I think I'm tapping out. Here's a updated but incomplete score sheet,with just the grid (not the total points of tally of lost teams) good through the end of the Houston game. I assume SDSU will win but am not putting pen to paper just for the principle of it... Will post the completed version tomorrow.
March 25, 20241 yr Poster, Current Score, EV Huckleberry, 64, 87.88 HornOnTheBayou, 42, 80.21 BigOrange1, 57, 72.59 Wulaw Horn, 50, 72.49 joeycovers, 27, 46.50 Prepuce of Doom, 27, 40.46 srr50, 38, 38.00 shadow_operative, 0, 0.00
March 25, 20241 yr Poster - Win Probability (# Paths) Huckleberry - 37.24% (11,036) HornOnTheBayou - 28.98% (9,285) Wulaw Horn - 16.36% (6,041) BigOrange1 - 11.47% (5,283) Prepuce of Doom - 4.45% (827) Tie - 1.37% (285) joeycovers - 0.13% (11) shadow_operative - 0.00% (0) srr50 - 0.00% (0)
March 25, 20241 yr 46 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: Poster, Current Score, EV Huckleberry, 64, 87.88 HornOnTheBayou, 42, 80.21 BigOrange1, 57, 72.59 Wulaw Horn, 50, 72.49 joeycovers, 27, 46.50 Prepuce of Doom, 27, 40.46 srr50, 38, 38.00 shadow_operative, 0, 0.00 from the highest score ever to the lowest score possible. that’s amazing.
March 25, 20241 yr 9 hours ago, Huckleberry said: Poster - Win Probability (# Paths) Huckleberry - 37.24% (11,036) HornOnTheBayou - 28.98% (9,285) Wulaw Horn - 16.36% (6,041) BigOrange1 - 11.47% (5,283) Prepuce of Doom - 4.45% (827) Tie - 1.37% (285) joeycovers - 0.13% (11) shadow_operative - 0.00% (0) srr50 - 0.00% (0) Got y’all exactly where I want you. The Avengers had worse odds than this to defeat Thanos but they made it happen.
March 29, 20241 yr Author Looking at standings, seeing I need Marquette to win to ace at Huck and saying- I guess I am screwed.
March 29, 20241 yr Author 5 hours ago, Prepuce of Doom said: Props for the Bama pick. That was your first round highest confidence pick and you nailed it.
March 29, 20241 yr Poster, Current Score, EV Wulaw Horn, 80, 107.99 Huckleberry, 64, 76.42 HornOnTheBayou, 42, 68.46 BigOrange1, 57, 65.58 Prepuce of Doom, 39, 58.21 joeycovers, 27, 46.62 srr50, 38, 38.00 shadow_operative, 0, 0.00
March 29, 20241 yr Poster - Win Probability (# Paths) Wulaw Horn - 63.99% (1,014) Huckleberry - 12.18% (506) Prepuce of Doom - 11.28% (144) HornOnTheBayou - 10.11% (328) BigOrange1 - 2.30% (48) Tie - 0.15% (8) joeycovers - 0.00% (0) shadow_operative - 0.00% (0) srr50 - 0.00% (0)
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