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Featured Replies

The 8 ties with a cumulative 0.15% chance of happening are all HOTB and Wulaw tying for the win.

Not that it wasn't obvious but my hopes of winning are pretty much dependent on Smart choking tonight. One more time, Shaka, you can do it. 

I ❤️ you, Shaka.

I think that may bump me up to 50% or so. I'll check based on results so far in just a bit. 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Wulaw Horn, 80, 107.81
Huckleberry, 97, 107.30
BigOrange1, 57, 65.05
Prepuce of Doom, 39, 58.10
HornOnTheBayou, 42, 53.27
joeycovers, 30, 49.32
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00
 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 45.23% (270)
Wulaw Horn - 39.11% (182)
Prepuce of Doom - 10.41% (32)
HornOnTheBayou - 3.65% (20)
BigOrange1 - 1.61% (8)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)

The above include a Purdue win
 

Edited by Huckleberry

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 97, 111.59
Wulaw Horn, 80, 108.23
HornOnTheBayou, 54, 75.52
Prepuce of Doom, 39, 58.36
BigOrange1, 57, 57.00
joeycovers, 36, 49.08
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 44.88% (66)
Wulaw Horn - 33.98% (44)
HornOnTheBayou - 10.74% (10)
Prepuce of Doom - 10.41% (8)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)

BigOrange1 eliminated

  • Author
2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 97, 111.59
Wulaw Horn, 80, 108.23
HornOnTheBayou, 54, 75.52
Prepuce of Doom, 39, 58.36
BigOrange1, 57, 57.00
joeycovers, 36, 49.08
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 44.88% (66)
Wulaw Horn - 33.98% (44)
HornOnTheBayou - 10.74% (10)
Prepuce of Doom - 10.41% (8)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)

BigOrange1 eliminated

So basically if UConn wins it all while Clemson and NCState both lose you ace me out by 2 fucking points. Brutal. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn

After UConn win

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 97, 111.54
Wulaw Horn, 84, 102.29
HornOnTheBayou, 54, 75.30
Prepuce of Doom, 39, 57.59
BigOrange1, 57, 57.00
joeycovers, 36, 48.91
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 54.15% (38)
Wulaw Horn - 24.91% (16)
HornOnTheBayou - 11.40% (6)
Prepuce of Doom - 9.54% (4)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 97, 111.52
Wulaw Horn, 84, 88.84
HornOnTheBayou, 54, 75.22
Prepuce of Doom, 55, 68.39
BigOrange1, 57, 57.00
joeycovers, 36, 48.85
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 71.88% (24)
HornOnTheBayou - 13.04% (4)
Prepuce of Doom - 15.08% (4)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)

Basically if Duke or Alabama win it all then HOTB or PoD, respectively, win it except for the scenario where Alabama wins it all after NC State beats Duke then I still win.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 97, 110.89
Wulaw Horn, 84, 88.75
HornOnTheBayou, 54, 74.38
Prepuce of Doom, 55, 68.16
BigOrange1, 57, 57.00
joeycovers, 40, 45.60
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 73.67% (12)
Prepuce of Doom - 14.47% (2)
HornOnTheBayou - 11.86% (2)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)

Edited by Huckleberry

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Basically if Duke or Alabama win it all then HOTB or PoD, respectively, win it except for the scenario where Alabama wins it all after NC State beats Duke then I still win.

I don't care for how you've made me root for dook. 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 141, 152.09
Wulaw Horn, 84, 88.77
Prepuce of Doom, 55, 68.22
BigOrange1, 57, 57.00
HornOnTheBayou, 54, 54.00
joeycovers, 40, 46.92
srr50, 38, 38.00
shadow_operative, 0, 0.00

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 100.00% (8)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
srr50 - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)

Will PM venmo info

Edited by Huckleberry

  • Author

Closest I’ve even come to winning. One fucking Shaka win and I’d have taken it down. 
alas man (dumb one) beaten by machine again. 
where was NC State ranked in your computer @Huckleberry

26th best pick according to the pre-tournament EVs. The top 3 all lost their first round games (Auburn, BYU, New Mexico). 

Edited by Huckleberry

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