July 26, 20187 yr Last year I enjoyed a pretty good run by switching things up and just finding teams to bet against every week. The absolute dregs of college football, teams that usually didn't even come close to covering point spreads. East Carolina was a shining example of this, especially early in the season. UTEP and I think UCONN were other "winners" for me last year. I know Oregon State is supposed to be dreadful, but I am expecting that most of the value is going to be sucked out of them since everyone is expecting them to be dogshit. Anyone else on your radar? Obviously I shouldn't have to say this, but for any noobs on here, it had to be more than just a bad team. It has to be a team that's much worse than anybody expected, or a team that is just so dysfunctional and terrible that even Vegas doesn't have the right read on the depths of their suckitude.
July 26, 20187 yr Kansas as a general rule, was a great team to ride the other side against.... of course, they easily fucking covered against UT last year.... so frustrating. Edited July 26, 20187 yr by AUS-97HORN
July 27, 20187 yr I’m not saying Oregon State is going to be good, but I think the disfunction will be much less than last year and expect them to play hard for Jonathan Smith( qb of their best ever team).
July 27, 20187 yr 21 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said: Kansas as a general rule, was a great team to ride the other side against.... of course, they easily fucking covered against UT last year.... so frustrating. They have a season win total of 3, so they’re STILL overvalued...but they could legit open the season with a loss to Nicholls State and make the books just crank the spreads up. They’re going to be historically bad this year, which sounds stupid under a coach that has 1 FBS win (sorry dudes) and is entering year 4.
July 27, 20187 yr 3 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said: They have a season win total of 3, so they’re STILL overvalued... so true story, ive got a coworker who is a Jayhawk homer, last year on the over/under win total, I gave him a half game, and took the under on 2.5 ona $100 bet, he bit like a bass on a lure. so, he payed out promptly in Nov, and last Fri we met for drinks and bewbs at Twin Peaks, he "guilted" me into taking the same bet again this year because Kansas is better. So Im taking the under of 2.5 games again for a hunsky.
July 27, 20187 yr 3 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said: so true story, ive got a coworker who is a Jayhawk homer, last year on the over/under win total, I gave him a half game, and took the under on 2.5 ona $100 bet, he bit like a bass on a lure. so, he payed out promptly in Nov, and last Fri we met for drinks and bewbs at Twin Peaks, he "guilted" me into taking the same bet again this year because Kansas is better. So Im taking the under of 2.5 games again for a hunsky. You can spend that already, there just isn’t a scenario that they get past 2 wins...Vegas just can’t make the number that low. It’s a market inefficiency, the opposite of, say not being able to make Patriots win totals high enough. I hold 3 limit bet tickets on the under (3, 3, 2.5) and don’t expect it to even be a sweat.
July 30, 20187 yr Author On 7/26/2018 at 4:24 PM, Greg Davis Apologist said: Arizona State Yeah I am interested to see how their lines look. They could be trainwreck city if things don't go well for them early.
August 1, 20187 yr Tom Herman? Quote Tom Herman is 5-15-1 ATS his past 21 games as a favorite for a 75 percent losing mark.
August 3, 20187 yr Author Saw an interesting article today on actionnetwork.com that said 137 teams have won 3 or fewer ATS in a season 2005-2016. 81 of those teams went on to have a .500 or better record ATS the next season. When you narrow it down to the power conferences, 45 of 67 teams went .500 or better ATS the next season. Kansas was 4-8 last year ATS, but with an average margin of -24.8. Edited August 3, 20187 yr by TornACL
August 3, 20187 yr Yeah, I danced around a similar point earlier, but with last year’s performance combined with starting ugly (maybe), the spreads could get stupid. When a team is so bad nobody wants to bet them, that creates value. KU -10 against Nicholls State (FCS) in week 1.
August 3, 20187 yr LAst four years all teams ATS: (Sorry for the big wall of text) Team ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/- Connecticut 14-34-1 29.2% -10.9 -4.0 Hawaii 16-33-2 32.6% -11.0 -4.6 E Carolina 16-32-1 33.3% -4.1 -3.1 S Alabama 17-32-1 34.7% -6.0 -2.7 Arizona 19-33-0 36.5% 0.6 -2.0 UCLA 19-32-0 37.2% 1.4 -3.7 Kansas 18-30-0 37.5% -22.0 -2.6 Oregon St 18-30-0 37.5% -12.6 -5.4 Kent State 18-29-0 38.3% -14.0 -4.7 Charlotte 13-20-2 39.4% -15.6 -5.3 Utah State 21-31-0 40.4% 2.1 -0.9 TX-San Ant 19-28-1 40.4% -3.2 -1.8 Cincinnati 20-29-1 40.8% -2.0 -4.2 Illinois 20-29-0 40.8% -9.2 -2.2 Indiana 20-28-2 41.7% -2.2 -1.6 Old Dominion 20-28-1 41.7% -4.6 -2.2 Ball State 20-28-0 41.7% -9.5 -4.8 Coastal Car 5-7-0 41.7% -10.3 -2.6 Kentucky 21-29-0 42.0% -2.2 -1.4 Texas A&M 22-30-0 42.3% 6.3 -1.4 Bowling Grn 22-29-1 43.1% -3.4 -1.6 San Jose St 21-27-1 43.8% -11.4 -4.6 Pittsburgh 21-27-3 43.8% 2.8 +0.3 Maryland 22-28-0 44.0% -6.9 -3.6 Auburn 23-29-1 44.2% 10.0 -0.6 W Virginia 23-29-0 44.2% 6.4 +1.4 W Kentucky 24-30-0 44.4% 10.9 +2.6 Baylor 22-27-1 44.9% 9.5 -2.1 USC 24-29-1 45.3% 8.8 +0.1 Texas State 22-26-0 45.8% -11.2 -3.2 Michigan 23-27-1 46.0% 11.8 0.0 Florida St 23-27-2 46.0% 9.7 -1.9 New Mexico 23-27-0 46.0% -2.9 +0.1 North Texas 23-27-1 46.0% -8.6 -1.5 TX El Paso 22-25-2 46.8% -11.6 -1.7 LA Monroe 22-25-2 46.8% -11.2 -1.6 S Methodist 23-26-0 46.9% -13.6 -3.4 Florida 23-26-1 46.9% 4.3 -0.9 UNLV 23-26-0 46.9% -7.6 -2.0 Tennessee 24-27-0 47.1% 4.8 -0.9 Missouri 24-27-0 47.1% 2.7 0.0 Louisville 24-27-1 47.1% 10.9 -1.6 Akron 24-27-0 47.1% -2.5 -1.6 LA Lafayette 23-25-2 47.9% -3.7 -2.9 Mississippi 23-25-2 47.9% 7.2 -1.4 N Mex State 23-25-1 47.9% -11.1 -0.4 App State 24-26-1 48.0% 12.7 +3.8 Oregon 25-27-1 48.1% 7.9 -3.1 Syracuse 23-24-1 48.9% -7.2 -1.0 Colorado 24-25-2 49.0% -1.0 -0.8 Army 24-25-1 49.0% 1.6 +1.4 Fla Atlantic 24-25-1 49.0% -2.3 +0.9 Rutgers 24-25-0 49.0% -10.7 -3.6 Iowa 25-26-2 49.0% 7.0 +2.5 Arizona St 25-26-0 49.0% 0.8 -1.1 VA Tech 26-27-0 49.1% 8.6 +1.1 Boise State 27-27-0 50.0% 12.9 -0.1 N Carolina 26-26-0 50.0% 3.6 +0.7 Alabama 29-29-0 50.0% 22.4 +2.7 Miami (FL) 26-26-0 50.0% 7.1 -0.2 Tulane 23-23-2 50.0% -8.6 -1.5 Vanderbilt 24-24-1 50.0% -7.3 -2.4 BYU 26-26-0 50.0% 5.7 -0.2 Kansas St 26-26-0 50.0% 7.0 +1.9 Middle Tenn 25-25-1 50.0% 3.1 -1.8 Troy 25-25-0 50.0% 2.9 +0.7 TX Christian 27-26-0 50.9% 15.0 +2.4 Notre Dame 26-25-0 51.0% 7.5 -0.6 N Illinois 26-25-2 51.0% 4.2 -0.3 Michigan St 26-25-1 51.0% 7.8 +0.8 GA Southern 25-24-0 51.0% 4.5 +1.2 Nevada 25-24-1 51.0% -1.9 +1.1 S Carolina 25-24-2 51.0% -1.3 -0.5 Buffalo 24-23-0 51.1% -3.2 0.0 Minnesota 24-23-4 51.1% 2.1 +1.2 Rice 24-23-2 51.1% -10.0 -3.4 Central Mich 27-25-0 51.9% 0.6 -0.6 Oklahoma St 27-25-0 51.9% 8.3 +1.0 Central FL 26-24-1 52.0% 3.6 +0.1 U Mass 25-23-0 52.1% -7.1 +1.1 Nebraska 25-23-3 52.1% 2.3 -2.6 Georgia State 25-23-1 52.1% -8.1 -0.4 Ohio State 29-26-0 52.7% 22.4 +4.0 Houston 27-24-1 52.9% 11.7 +1.2 Wyoming 27-24-0 52.9% -4.2 +1.4 S Mississippi 27-24-1 52.9% 2.1 +0.1 Wash State 27-24-0 52.9% 3.5 +0.5 Memphis 26-23-3 53.1% 13.2 +4.9 Tulsa 26-23-1 53.1% -2.9 +1.4 California 26-23-0 53.1% 0.0 +1.8 Virginia 25-22-2 53.2% -5.4 -1.3 Florida Intl 25-22-2 53.2% -4.9 +0.9 Clemson 30-26-1 53.6% 18.1 +3.6 Washington 29-25-0 53.7% 15.4 +4.7 Air Force 28-24-0 53.8% 6.1 +1.3 Miss State 28-24-0 53.8% 9.0 +1.5 Arkansas 27-23-1 54.0% 3.5 +0.2 Texas 27-23-0 54.0% 0.7 -1.0 Miami (OH) 26-22-1 54.2% -5.9 -0.3 Purdue 26-22-1 54.2% -6.8 +1.0 Oklahoma 29-24-0 54.7% 16.3 +0.6 Colorado St 28-23-1 54.9% 5.4 +0.4 NC State 28-23-1 54.9% 5.4 +0.9 LSU 27-22-1 55.1% 9.9 -0.2 Wisconsin 30-24-1 55.6% 14.9 +2.4 Toledo 28-22-2 56.0% 10.6 +1.6 Penn State 28-22-3 56.0% 10.1 +3.0 Boston Col 27-21-3 56.2% 1.3 +1.9 E Michigan 27-21-1 56.2% -9.8 -0.3 Arkansas St 29-22-0 56.9% 8.4 +3.1 San Diego St 29-22-3 56.9% 11.6 +3.0 Texas Tech 28-21-1 57.1% -1.6 -1.6 Wake Forest 28-21-1 57.1% -3.1 +2.2 Georgia 31-23-0 57.4% 12.6 +1.0 GA Tech 27-20-2 57.5% 5.6 +3.0 Navy 29-21-3 58.0% 7.6 +3.8 Fresno St 29-21-1 58.0% -5.8 -0.3 Stanford 31-22-1 58.5% 10.5 +2.3 Northwestern 30-21-0 58.8% 3.0 +2.0 Marshall 30-21-1 58.8% 9.7 +1.5 S Florida 29-20-1 59.2% 7.1 +1.8 Duke 29-20-2 59.2% 4.7 +2.6 Iowa State 28-19-2 59.6% -4.4 +2.6 Idaho 27-18-3 60.0% -7.1 +1.0 Ohio 31-20-1 60.8% 4.2 +1.8 Utah 31-20-1 60.8% 6.8 +2.3 LA Tech 33-21-0 61.1% 9.9 +3.7 UAB 15-9-1 62.5% 2.7 +4.3 W Michigan 33-19-0 63.5% 11.1 +5.2 Temple 34-19-0 64.1% 7.3 +4.5
August 7, 20187 yr On 7/26/2018 at 9:59 AM, TornACL said: Last year I enjoyed a pretty good run by switching things up and just finding teams to bet against every week. The absolute dregs of college football, teams that usually didn't even come close to covering point spreads. East Carolina was a shining example of this, especially early in the season. UTEP and I think UCONN were other "winners" for me last year. I know Oregon State is supposed to be dreadful, but I am expecting that most of the value is going to be sucked out of them since everyone is expecting them to be dogshit. Anyone else on your radar? Obviously I shouldn't have to say this, but for any noobs on here, it had to be more than just a bad team. It has to be a team that's much worse than anybody expected, or a team that is just so dysfunctional and terrible that even Vegas doesn't have the right read on the depths of their suckitude. Rice was awful last year. I think they might be a candidate to be worse this year. Talent isn't really improved and new and inexperienced coaches could lead to a poor first 4 or 5 games. worth keeping an eye on.
August 8, 20187 yr Going to miss Urban, assuming he's gone. His ATS with a week+ to prep is now at an unbelievable 42-14 over his career. I latched onto this 4 seasons ago and it's paid off nicely.
August 31, 20187 yr Northwestern St. On 7/26/2018 at 9:59 AM, TornACL said: It has to be a team that's much worse than anybody expected, or a team that is just so dysfunctional and terrible that even Vegas doesn't have the right read on the depths of their suckitude. Northwestern St.
September 1, 20187 yr On 8/8/2018 at 8:53 AM, Wally Pryor said: Going to miss Urban, assuming he's gone. His ATS with a week+ to prep is now at an unbelievable 42-14 over his career. I latched onto this 4 seasons ago and it's paid off nicely. He's only coached ~210 games. It's surprising that 25%+ of those have been with more than a weeks prep. EDIT- no its not... I'm a dumbass. Edited September 1, 20187 yr by Blotto
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