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FINAL 2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

so like conf tourneys in basketball are we saying the committee isn't going to care about losses in the conf champ games?  

If aggy beats us and loses in conf champ game to say bama what happens?

Who gives a shit, cause Texas is out. 

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    I'd rather stay behind Georgia until they come to Austin.  Same way I felt about being behind SC in 05.  I'd rather have something to prove than something to defend.

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9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

so like conf tourneys in basketball are we saying the committee isn't going to care about losses in the conf champ games?  

If aggy beats us and loses in conf champ game to say bama what happens?

No the football committee has always talked about CCGs as an important 13th data point as they like to call it. They definitely matter. 

But if A&M loses there that's their 3rd loss against only one ranked win (Texas in that scenario). They're out if they lose again at any point. 

9 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

People thinking a 2-loss Texas because "brand" is a shoe-in need to step back.  In the 2-loss scenario where we lose to aggy, these are our comparables in the SEC:

Yep, and even if we beat aggy and go to CCG and lose, I don't think a playoff spot is guaranteed (depending on who we play and how the game plays out).  Our SOS is so crappy this year that it's going to be a tough argument against other 2 loss teams.  I believe the committee has said they don't want to penalize teams for losing in CCG's, but at some point the body of work has to matter.  With OU and Michigan sucking so bad this year, it's got to hurt our chances if we end up in a 2-loss showdown and there aren't enough chairs left to get 4+ SEC teams in.  I think we'd jump Tenn if it came down to it and maybe Old Miss, but I wouldn't count on either of those. 

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No the football committee has always talked about CCGs as an important 13th data point as they like to call it. They definitely matter. 

But if A&M loses there that's their 3rd loss against only one ranked win (Texas in that scenario). They're out if they lose again at any point. 

that is what I think and we would still have a better SOS than Ole Miss who has losses to shitty LSU and shitty Kentucky.

Thanks for the multiple folks that squared me away on Boise vs Big12. I did not know that.

1 minute ago, blutow said:

Yep, and even if we beat aggy and go to CCG and lose, I don't think a playoff spot is guaranteed (depending on who we play and how the game plays out).  Our SOS is so crappy this year that it's going to be a tough argument against other 2 loss teams.  I believe the committee has said they don't want to penalize teams for losing in CCG's, but at some point the body of work has to matter.  With OU and Michigan sucking so bad this year, it's got to hurt our chances if we end up in a 2-loss showdown and there aren't enough chairs left to get 4+ SEC teams in.  I think we'd jump Tenn if it came down to it and maybe Old Miss, but I wouldn't count on either of those. 

if we beat aggy we are in.

17 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

The is true. I doubt we hear much real complaining from Texas fans if we lose to A&M and get left out of the playoff. If you lose to the only top 25 teams you play, more often than not you don’t deserve to be in. 

My hope is that we win out, A&M loses to Auburn and us dropping out of top 25, and we beat whoever makes it to CC making them also drop out of top 25, thereby making it to playoffs without any top 25 wins.

1 hour ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Nothing is certain, but I would lean towards playing in The SEC title game being a disadvantage to the game’s loser given college football’s long history of rewarding team’s that lose early over team’s that lose late.  

*teams

*teams

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

if we beat aggy we are in.

Most likely, but I don't think it's guaranteed.  If we got blown out by Bama in the CCG, it would certainly be a discussion between us and Tenn.  Recency bias (and eye test) has always played a big role with people making the decisions.  If it's 4+ payoff spots for SEC, I think we're in even with a bad loss in CCG.  3 SEC spots and I think there is risk.  If we lose close in CCG, we're probably in regardless of spots available. 

And we obviously need to win the next 2, hopefully passing the eye test while we're doing it.  If we end up in CCG and losing, eye test in last few games (for all 2 loss teams) will probably be bigger factor than SOS and other "measurables".      

46 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

People thinking a 2-loss Texas because "brand" is a shoe-in need to step back.  In the 2-loss scenario where we lose to aggy, these are our comparables in the SEC:

10-2 aggy,  who would own H2H vs. Texas AND stronger SOS AND is a big brand in terms of TV viewership (not as big as Texas but not so big to make a difference when they own H2H)

10-2 UGA, who would own H2H vs. Texas AND stronger SOS AND top 25 wins vs. (16) Clemson, (11) Tennessee, AND is a 5* brand just like Texas

10-2 Tenn, whose SOS > Texas SOS AND has top 25 win vs. (7) Bama AND is a big brand

10-2 Bama, whose SOS > Texas SOS AND has top 25 win vs. (8) UGA AND is a big brand

10-2 Ole Miss, whose SOS > Texas SOS AND has top 25 win vs. (8) UGA

vs.

10-2 Texas, who has the lowest SOS of the group and zero top 25 wins and in this scenario has taken the latest regular-season loss (and if that loss is to aggy won't have the chance to redeem it in the SECCG).  We are a big brand though.

...SEC isn't getting 6 into the CFP.  Probably not five.  Who are the 2 you're leaving out of the list to put in Texas, if we lose to aggy?  In that scenario aggy and probably Bama play the SECCG so they're probably in.  2 more spots.  UGA gets one with the next-best resume.  1 spot left for Texas, Tenn, Ole Miss.  I guess we could squeak over Ole Miss, barely?

I don’t think it is because of brand. I think it is because a combination of other upsets are still going to happen. 

One of those teams you listed is going to have a 3rd loss in the CCG, i think it is safe to assume that loss is going to hurt you. 

A&M is only  -2.5 @ auburn this weekend

Bama and ole miss both have 2 conference games left in the mighty SEC we know what can happen.

I think we are in even if we lose to A&M because we will end up dropping ~5 spots for losing to a ranked opponent on the road in an intense rivalry game plus a combination of TBD upsets. 

 

Edited by hornbri

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Others receiving votes: Missouri 56, Memphis 38, Kansas St. 36, Syracuse 21, Louisville 15, Pittsburgh 6, LSU 6, Louisiana 5, Vanderbilt 4, Colorado St. 2, Duke 2, James Madison 2, Georgia Tech 1

 

8 minutes ago, blutow said:

Most likely, but I don't think it's guaranteed.  If we got blown out by Bama in the CCG, it would certainly be a discussion between us and Tenn.  Recency bias (and eye test) has always played a big role with people making the decisions.  If it's 4+ payoff spots for SEC, I think we're in even with a bad loss in CCG.  3 SEC spots and I think there is risk.  If we lose close in CCG, we're probably in regardless of spots available. 

And we obviously need to win the next 2, hopefully passing the eye test while we're doing it.  If we end up in CCG and losing, eye test in last few games (for all 2 loss teams) will probably be bigger factor than SOS and other "measurables".      

barring a ridiculous number of upsets down the stretch the SEC is getting 4 at least.

I find it hard to believe a Texas team that enters the SEC CCG at 11-1, probably ranked #3, and loses is out of the playoff altogether.  The two teams in that CCG are ostensibly the top two teams in the conference.

33 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

that is what I think and we would still have a better SOS than Ole Miss who has losses to shitty LSU and shitty Kentucky.

Let’s not forget about Kentucky. They could beat us next Saturday.  It’s not a slam dunk win 

So if my soon to be alma mater of ASU wins out they will be in the playoffs. BYU travels to Tempe this coming week. Should be a fun game.

3 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Let’s not forget about Kentucky. They could beat us next Saturday.  It’s not a slam dunk win 

Yes it is

Y’all quit your talking about losing to aggy.  That game will be war.  The D will bring it. 

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I find it hard to believe a Texas team that enters the SEC CCG at 11-1, probably ranked #3, and loses is out of the playoff altogether.  The two teams in that CCG are ostensibly the top two teams in the conference.

Yes, if Texas wins on the road at A&M then loses the next week there's no way they are dropped behind enough two loss teams not to make it.

1 hour ago, TexEx15 said:

Boise State would not be 4. It would be the Big12 champ.

 i would not put it past the committee to do that to get the bracket they want especially if it reduces the number of games a zero-ratings school could potentially play

2 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Let’s not forget about Kentucky. They could beat us next Saturday.  It’s not a slam dunk win 

sure.  Kentucky ostensibly has had 3 weeks to prepare for us.  Auburn plays aggie at home.  either of these could be an upset.  Kentucky's O is not good against any D with a pulse. It would be nice if our O really showed up.  Would be good to have one of those patented late season Stoops blowouts of Tech or OSU.

one thing we need to do is put one of our OOC games in Nov.

28 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The two teams in that CCG are ostensibly the top two teams in the conference.

Good way to phrase it, similar to aggy ostensibly being first place (tied) in said conference.  I don't think either is the case and many teams have been knocked down after losing a CCG historically.  In the eye's of many, Texas has lost it's only tough game.  As much as I'd like to see aggy drop to auburn next week, they really need to be ranked as high as possible when we play them to help our case if we end up losing in the CCG (plus, it's much sweeter to be the team to crush their dreams).  An aggy loss to Auburn doesn't help Texas in any way other than maybe recruiting.  If aggy lost to auburn and then us, we'd have zero top 25 wins at the end of the season if we then lost in the CCG.  Again, I like our chances as long as we win the next 2, but I'd rather have as much ammo as possible if we end up in a beauty contest across 2 loss SEC teams. 

Edited by blutow
typo

27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I find it hard to believe a Texas team that enters the SEC CCG at 11-1, probably ranked #3, and loses is out of the playoff altogether.  The two teams in that CCG are ostensibly the top two teams in the conference.

It’s hard for you to believe because the people discussing that scenario are idoits. The only possible way we miss the playoffs with 2 losses is if our other loss is to Kentucky or aggy.

1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

There's another odd dynamic that exists in polling beyond what @Horn of Gabriel spelled out above. They hate to be wrong, talking heads hate to be wrong, haters love to hate, and there's always those that love jumping on whatever bandwagon happens to be rolling around.

So those that have been supporting Texas as a NC team, those hating on Texas sos, those that were voting Texas top 5, those that love a bandwagon could all take a late season loss to a not great aggie squad as the reason to leash the hate hounds. Sure, there well be a handful on contrary mofos that still support Texas, but they'll be the exception.

It happened to FSU last year post Louisville, rightfully so. Texas loses to aggie late... I think the wheels roll, guillotines come out and Texas is lead to the slaughter. We don't win both Kentucky and aggie, I can't see Texas making the playoffs. For the logic reason Gabriel spelled out and frankly haters gonna hate. Texas is a brand like a few others that have that sort of national brand. On or off the bus, but it's binary. 

Yeah, lots of media narratives that Texas is overrated and better beat Kentucky & aggy.

Galloway being a bitch about Texas @30:30

ESPN College Football Final | Reaction CFB Week 12: Georgia take down Tennessee; Colorado crush Utah

6 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

I agree and it's why I listed him with Sanders and Ward as one of the 3 best that weren't in the SEC. Probably, the best of those. I'm just really glad Venables disagreed with both of us.

I missed the "real" explanation. Did Venables tell Gabriel to  take a hike, or did Gabriel tell Venables to suck it?

 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You like watching cock beating, do you?

You sound like someone who's never been to Tojo Nunnally's Coal Yard on a Friday night.

55 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I find it hard to believe a Texas team that enters the SEC CCG at 11-1, probably ranked #3, and loses is out of the playoff altogether.  The two teams in that CCG are ostensibly the top two teams in the conference.

I don't think anyone expects an 11-2 Texas to not make it. Its the 10-2 Texas that whiffs on the playoffs.

8 minutes ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

image.thumb.png.2964df07d68edbf346b820c2f7d9dc0f.png

it is hilarious that PSU, IU, and ND are 4,5,6.   considering the SOS of those teams is 46,67,77.  Good to see AP poll is still all about # of losses and logos.  ND lost to fucking NIU AT HOME.

Edited by dcar00

2 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

People thinking a 2-loss Texas because "brand" is a shoe-in need to step back.  In the 2-loss scenario where we lose to aggy, these are our comparables in the SEC:

10-2 aggy,  who would own H2H vs. Texas AND stronger SOS AND is a big brand in terms of TV viewership (not as big as Texas but not so big to make a difference when they own H2H)

10-2 UGA, who would own H2H vs. Texas AND stronger SOS AND top 25 wins vs. (16) Clemson, (11) Tennessee, AND is a 5* brand just like Texas

10-2 Tenn, whose SOS > Texas SOS AND has top 25 win vs. (7) Bama AND is a big brand

10-2 Bama, whose SOS > Texas SOS AND has top 25 win vs. (8) UGA AND is a big brand

10-2 Ole Miss, whose SOS > Texas SOS AND has top 25 win vs. (8) UGA

vs.

10-2 Texas, who has the lowest SOS of the group and zero top 25 wins and in this scenario has taken the latest regular-season loss (and if that loss is to aggy won't have the chance to redeem it in the SECCG).  We are a big brand though.

...SEC isn't getting 6 into the CFP.  Probably not five.  Who are the 2 you're leaving out of the list to put in Texas, if we lose to aggy?  In that scenario aggy and probably Bama play the SECCG so they're probably in.  2 more spots.  UGA gets one with the next-best resume.  1 spot left for Texas, Tenn, Ole Miss.  I guess we could squeak over Ole Miss, barely?

exactly GIF
 

 

They won’t put us in over Ole Miss who handled UGA 

38 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, lots of media narratives that Texas is overrated and better beat Kentucky & aggy.

Galloway being a bitch about Texas @30:30

ESPN College Football Final | Reaction CFB Week 12: Georgia take down Tennessee; Colorado crush Utah

He’s not wrong though 

14 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

I don't think anyone expects an 11-2 Texas to not make it. Its the 10-2 Texas that whiffs on the playoffs.

Well, on this page alone it was questioned whether we would absolutely have a spot should we lose big in the CCG.  I don't see that happening (getting left out, not getting blown out).

7 minutes ago, D3zii said:

They won’t put us in over Ole Miss who handled UGA 

The same Ole Miss team that lost at home to Kentucky and on the road at LSU?  Quality of loss matters, too.

1 hour ago, EuroHorn said:

Let’s not forget about Kentucky. They could beat us next Saturday.  It’s not a slam dunk win 

Agree.  The Kentucky win will more likely be a lay up win, but performed with really good technique like we all learned in middle school.

26 minutes ago, D3zii said:


They won’t put us in over Ole Miss who handled UGA 

That's unknowable at this point.  Plus Ole Miss might lose in the swamp on Saturday

9 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

It’s the sense I have. Texas’ resume is worse than Bama and Ole Miss for sure. 

Ole Miss lost to two teams that are currently unranked.

This thread kills me. 

I'm just gonna point out, if we win the next three game we play, I'm pretty fucking sure we make the playoffs.

Cause.. needs to be said occasionally.

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Fucking shit piles.  I never knew vaginitis was so contagious.  Fuck the media.  Fuck the polls.  Fuck the goddamn CFP Committee.  We’re going to trample UK.  Then we’re going to ass fuck aggy with a rusty pitchfork until they pray for the ghost of Justin Tucker to kick them out of their misery.  Finally, we’re going to kick the shit out of whatever unfortunate sack of shit is forced to face us in the SEC Championship Game.  Then the media, pollsters, commentators, and the other dipshit hillbillies in this shitty ass conference can line up to lick Sark’s taint.

4 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

That missed field goal against LSU is going to haunt South Carolina fan for decades. Best team they’ve had since Spurrier, and they’d win a couple CFP games against Big Ten/ACC/Big 12 schools. Life isn’t fair. 

Meh, they were lucky to beat a fraud mizzou last night.  And if they were so great, it wouldn't have been a fg game against lsu.

1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

Absolutely Ole Miss would jump us. They just smoked UGA. If we’re in a 10-2 dick measuring contest, we’re behind UGA, Ole Miss, and Bama. All have far superior SOS and all have much better wins. This shouldn’t be an argument. 

Counterpoint:  Sagarin has Ole Miss' SOS behind ours (#38 vs #44).  UGA and 'bama are well ahead (#1 and #9).

I don't care what you think of Sagarin.

4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

SEC will have 4 minimum. I don’t know where the thought comes from that we’ll have 3, because it’s literally impossible or a 0.0000001% chance of occurring. I doubt they get 5. 

Incredibly hard to fathom we’re in with a loss at A&M. We’ll drop considerably and after CCG day, we’d be 13 or worse.  I give it a 0% chance. 

No he’s not at all. He’s 100% correct. 

Absolutely Ole Miss would jump us. They just smoked UGA. If we’re in a 10-2 dick measuring contest, we’re behind UGA, Ole Miss, and Bama. All have far superior SOS and all have much better wins. This shouldn’t be an argument. 

Ole Miss has a lower full season strength of schedule than Texas.

Edited by Huckleberry

19 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Ole Miss lost to two teams that are currently unranked.

They did. But at least right now, a major talking point in CFB media is resume stacking and big wins. I’ve listened to two separate podcasts from today where they went down the list of SEC contenders and repeatedly mention Texas having no big wins or even ranked wins on its resume, and talk about the A&M/Texas loser being out of the CFP.

Number of losses and quality wins are the dominant factors, at least as far as media discussion. Who you lost to is not the top consideration. I’ll also add that our laying an egg against Georgia is also brought up a lot. Had that game appeared more competitive (even though I think it WAS more competitive than it seemed), I don’t think we’d be catching as much skepticism.

Fortunately the media does not determine the rankings, the committee does, and they’ve ranked us favorably so far. But being a beauty contest with Ole Miss and Tennessee for the final at-large spot could be problematic for us.

2 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

Let’s not forget about Kentucky. They could beat us next Saturday.  It’s not a slam dunk win 

yes it is

Problematic because they hate us cuz they ain’t us 

11 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

SEC will have 4 minimum. I don’t know where the thought comes from that we’ll have 3, because it’s literally impossible or a 0.0000001% chance of occurring. I doubt they get 5. 

Incredibly hard to fathom we’re in with a loss at A&M. We’ll drop considerably and after CCG day, we’d be 13 or worse.  I give it a 0% chance. 

No he’s not at all. He’s 100% correct. 

Absolutely Ole Miss would jump us. They just smoked UGA. If we’re in a 10-2 dick measuring contest, we’re behind UGA, Ole Miss, and Bama. All have far superior SOS and all have much better wins. This shouldn’t be an argument. 

Sec will get 5 if noter dame loses. 
SEC could get 5 if it breaks the right way and Indiana loses by 50 to OSU

9 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

They did. But at least right now, a major talking point in CFB media is resume stacking and big wins. I’ve listened to two separate podcasts from today where they went down the list of SEC contenders and repeatedly mention Texas having no big wins or even ranked wins on its resume, and talk about the A&M/Texas loser being out of the CFP.

Number of losses and quality wins are the dominant factors, at least as far as media discussion. Who you lost to is not the top consideration. I’ll also add that our laying an egg against Georgia is also brought up a lot. Had that game appeared more competitive (even though I think it WAS more competitive than it seemed), I don’t think we’d be catching as much skepticism.

Fortunately the media does not determine the rankings, the committee does, and they’ve ranked us favorably so far. But being a beauty contest with Ole Miss and Tennessee for the final at-large spot could be problematic for us.

The annoying thing to me is that the media seems to just bray no top 25 wins and neglect how we've looked in most of our wins.  Our offense didn't show up against Georgia and should have handled Vandy and Arkansas more easily but the way we've blown out everyone else on the schedule deserves consideration.  But we're still #3 in both polls, so I guess the naysayers aren't gaining too much traction yet.

And if you take anything beyond a cursory look at our defense, we obviously belong.  I think we get to 11-1 though and this is mostly moot.

Edited by WBT

32 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Ole Miss lost to two teams that are currently unranked.

This is an overlooked point in all the talk about quality wins. Maybe we are deficient on that measure, but we sure as hell have ZERO shitty losses.

No, I'm not touting a "quality loss", but I'm saying that there should be some penalization for shitty losses, especially if you have more than one.

I'm guessing a 10-2 Texas makes the CFP no matter what because the corporations involved like to make money.

Just a hunch.

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