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From University of Florida's Michael McDonald where it was also known as the US Elections project (good Twitter follow as well). This is one of the best places to check out the numbers and statistical breakdowns of this election cycle. Much easier to visualize now than using his github from years before. I believe they even have it down to the precinct level this year. In person early voting, mail in ballots sent out, back in, you name it. Breakdown of gender and age information if available.

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

I know there are specific Twitter follows that give good insight for AZ, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI, etc. if anyone wants to add below, please do as it would make a nice spot to have that info in one place.

 

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I like his solo stuff, but his time with the Doobies was a dark time for music

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14 different states have began receiving votes

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21 states have received early votes so far.

Texas appears to have gotten its first batch of mail-in votes with 3.539.
-- Victoria County - famous for @tx 3 putt and myself, as well its lesser known shout out in Star Wars as a place "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy" leads the way with 458 mail in votes.

Virginia is top dawg so far and has around 308K votes, which is 92k less than at this time in 2020, albeit different circumstances.
Wisconsin is at 87K and around 20% of all mail ballots requested returned so far in the state.

Been meaning to check this thread but i keep on forgetting 

Edited by Pato del Muerto

On 9/18/2024 at 12:14 PM, StassneyHorn said:

From University of Florida's Michael McDonald where it was also known as the US Elections project (good Twitter follow as well).

I don’t know him but he‘s my brother

45 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

21 states have received early votes so far.

Texas appears to have gotten its first batch of mail-in votes with 3.539.
-- Victoria County - famous for @tx 3 putt and myself, as well its lesser known shout out in Star Wars as a place "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy" leads the way with 458 mail in votes.

Virginia is top dawg so far and has around 308K votes, which is 92k less than at this time in 2020, albeit different circumstances.
Wisconsin is at 87K and around 20% of all mail ballots requested returned so far in the state.

 

highly likely those are majority trump votes 

On 9/23/2024 at 4:00 PM, StassneyHorn said:

14 different states have began receiving votes

begun

  • 2 weeks later...
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Michigan women outvoting men bigly in early voting

image.thumb.png.a18723103b0bf3a6d7a058a16df7058d.png

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Either returned or just bring it with them to in person early voting. 

46 minutes ago, swraith said:

So, those under 40 in PA, need to focus on getting those mail ballots returned?

I mean, everyone will fret, but they always end up doing it last minute or just voting in person on Election Day. 

15 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

wow

 

More people voting? Here's why that is bad for Kamala Harris! 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

More people voting? Here's why that is bad for Kamala Harris! 

STOP THE COUNT!  

Oh it's still three weeks away?

Stop it anyway!

49 minutes ago, Chips O'Toole said:

STOP THE COUNT!  

Oh it's still three weeks away?

Stop it anyway!

AJC is reporting 281k at poll closing time, with people still in lines (if you are in line when the polls close, they have to let your vote by law).  Georgia will eclipse 300k on the first day of early voting.  

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Michigan women not letting up
image.thumb.png.608d3927d90fb283c9cbfe7b75b311de.png


Pennsylvania mail in ballots looking good
image.thumb.png.5fa7c019a3a149b9ea445207aa6f1400.png

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Late and I'm not sure when numbers are updated overnight, but figured id take a look at what I consider important. I think its important because it shows the gender gap enthusiasm so far appears large, and they are all on eastern time zone and getting called early can disrupt communications of STOLLEN election.

Women are outnumbering men voters by approx 66k votes in North Carolina, 401,198 - 334,779. 44k extra did not identify.
Women are outnumbering men voters by approx 119k in Michigan, 530,995 - 412,241. 1445 extra did not identify.
Women are outnumbering men voters by approx 123k in Georgia, 658,847 - 535,348.  6,355 extra did not identify.
There is an approx 294k Republican shortfall to in Pennsylvania mail ballots, 504,373 - 210,623.

Ditto, get it out of the way early 

11 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Late and I'm not sure when numbers are updated overnight, but figured id take a look at what I consider important. I think its important because it shows the gender gap enthusiasm so far appears large, and they are all on eastern time zone and getting called early can disrupt communications of STOLLEN election.

Women are outnumbering men voters by approx 66k votes in North Carolina, 401,198 - 334,779. 44k extra did not identify.
Women are outnumbering men voters by approx 119k in Michigan, 530,995 - 412,241. 1445 extra did not identify.
Women are outnumbering men voters by approx 123k in Georgia, 658,847 - 535,348.  6,355 extra did not identify.
There is an approx 294k Republican shortfall to in Pennsylvania mail ballots, 504,373 - 210,623.

Women love Trump. It’s true because he said it.

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

ill be voting tomorrow you fuckers !

 

30 minutes ago, YChang said:

Ditto, get it out of the way early 

gonna wait till middle of the week to let the enthusiastics like you two get it out of the way so I don't have to wait

6 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

 

gonna wait till middle of the week to let the enthusiastics like you two get it out of the way so I don't have to wait

 

i’ll drive by tomorrow and be like …

fuck that ice cube GIF

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I've made the Texas early voting thread in the past, but am probably just going to use this thread as a catch all. Most of the County Clerk's twitter pages or elections departments will give updates through the day.
 

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There is now a 325k gap between mail-in in favor of Dems in Pennsylvania

image.thumb.png.922ca0cf7aa60d666802a77b1d4a217d.png

remind me, will we see early voting progress numbers in Texas or will be only see results on the 5th?

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Should see them everyday in Texas SOS early voting site. The link above scrapes every states Secretary of State/Elections websites and gets numbers that are available.

Yep, you can see the raw turnout numbers.  Target Smart will try to model them, but it's more difficult in Texas without party registration and how often Dems cross over to vote in GOP primaries, since it is a defacto general election. 

Went to the library today to vote in collin county, and the line was about 100 people long. Pass.

I’ll give it a couple of days to try again.

2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

remind me, will we see early voting progress numbers in Texas or will be only see results on the 5th?

 

2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Should see them everyday in Texas SOS early voting site. The link above scrapes every states Secretary of State/Elections websites and gets numbers that are available.

In the past elections, the Texas SOS page had the daily numbers for the largest 15-20 counties. Some of the counties weren't as good as others in sending in daily updates especially over the weekends. They catch up on Monday or Tuesday. It's a weak reporting site since it ignores 230+ counties. 

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

In the past elections, the Texas SOS page had the daily numbers for the largest 15-20 counties. Some of the counties weren't as good as others in sending in daily updates especially over the weekends. They catch up on Monday or Tuesday. It's a weak reporting site since it ignores 230+ counties. 

It should be this page:

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

if you’re in houston, vote in the 2nd Ward. then go grab some beer and tacos

zero wait, very large set up 

Do they still have drop boxes in TX or were they all taken away?

7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

if you’re in houston, vote in the 2nd Ward. then go grab some beer and tacos

zero wait, very large set up 

For the election or the 🍺 and 🌮?

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

In the past elections, the Texas SOS page had the daily numbers for the largest 15-20 counties. Some of the counties weren't as good as others in sending in daily updates especially over the weekends. They catch up on Monday or Tuesday. It's a weak reporting site since it ignores 230+ counties. 

Eh that hasn’t been my experience. For the most recent election, this one, most of them (254 counties) get updated early in the morning with about 10 or so that may not get done. There’s an afternoon update that catches the stragglers. The SoS site has switched to displaying top 15 counties for historical election selections.

You can visit every county’s clerk website and get the numbers around 11pm at night for the largest ones.

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Any updates on the Pennsylvania firewall?  

Up to about 325k, not including the indy vote (like 375k if you include that)

Other than the Columbus Day weekend, it's increasing by about 15-25k per day, sometime as much as 30k.  

Smithley acknowledges the GOP is lagging behind by 10%+ in returns in big counties and isn't sure what to make of that. 

 

7 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Do they still have drop boxes in TX or were they all taken away?

 

one per county 

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Up to about 325k, not including the indy vote (like 375k if you include that)

Other than the Columbus Day weekend, it's increasing by about 15-25k per day, sometime as much as 30k.  

Smithley acknowledges the GOP is lagging behind by 10%+ in returns in big counties and isn't sure what to make of that. 

Wasn't 300K the number we were shooting for or am I off?

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Wasn't 300K the number we were shooting for or am I off?

390k (just D/R) and 500k with indies.

My ballot is filled out. All D ticket. I also voted for enshrining equal rights in the NY State Constitution and against all of Eric Adams' ballot proposals.  Fuck him.

39 minutes ago, Js1 said:

390k (just D/R) and 500k with indies.

500k what with indies?

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

500k what with indies?

a 500k person buffer in favor of D returns, I believe. 

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