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  • Popular Post

This is strange matchup for the CFP. Like Clemson, ASU doesn’t seem to belong on power ranking. They too emerged from a multi-team pileup to win their conference. 

There is a large talent gap in this game, most notably on the lines. You can see it in the undersized front 6 for ASU and the lack of standout players on the OL and receiver corps. Without #0 Tyson, I would say Clemson is better at TE and all 3 WR spots. Leavitt is a good, dual threat QB and Skataboo is one of the best RBs in the country this year. They just don’t have a strong supporting cast.

The defense is a study in contrasts. They play a 4-2-5 base nickel and the safeties are called on to do a lot. The other 9 defenders are undersized and built to play B12 spread passing teams.

D philosophy is bend, don’t break and they use movement and quickness to confuse blocking assignments. The results are decent: 3.82 YPC and #27 nationally per game, #38 per carry. In pass efficiency D, the Devils rank #24. 

For the second game in a row, Texas should have the advantage on Special Teams. ASU is average at punter and return teams. The FG kicking is a real adventure. They have a miss inside of 30 yards, 2 of 4 30-39 and 3 of 7 40-49 with a long of 47. 

There are a lot of details to add but I wanted to start with a summary to provide a framework for discussion. 

  • Popular Post

I haz a disappointed. Was expecting a very different ASU summary from someone whose handle is sushihorn.

If ASU is average at special teams, does that mean Bolden will be back to his crazy return attempts?

  • Author

Running Back and OL

Lots of hype here. Skataboo feasted on bad run defenses this season. The best was #29 KSU, who gave up 78 yds at 2.9 per carry to Skataboo. After that #31 UCF faced the backup only; #37 Utah: 159 total, 7.2 YPC; #46 BYU:  148, 5.3 YPC; #65 Texas St: 70 total, 2.6 YPC. The rest of their slate was terrible defending the run: #74, 76, 87, 98, 102, 111, 128, 129. It’s hard to know how much is due to ASU strength and how much to opponents weakness. 

The OL has good size and the scheme is mostly gap blocking: Lead, power and counter. They like to run GT Counter. It’s slow developing yet most opposing defenses have not been able to make them pay. Texas has a much better run defense than anything ASU has faced.

QB: Leavitt is a very talented dual-threat. I see him as very similar in talent to Klubnick though with less experience. He has a lot fewer weapons in the passing game. Their TE is solid but the WRs are JAG-ish. Like Klubnick, we will have to account for Leavitt in the running game. 

The truly outstanding thing about ASU’s offense is ball security. They have turned the ball over only 8 times all season: 5 INTs and 3 of 5 fumbles lost. They don’t create a lot of TOs but they give away so few that their margin is still +14. 

  • Popular Post

ASU is over matched in this game. There is nothing to analyze, it would be like comparing the Grenada military to the United States prior to the invasion.

ASU doesn't have a defense and will make Wisner and Blue look like Bijan and Rojo are in the back field. Their secondary is trash and will allow Ewers to find open receivers and feast. Not to mention their d-line will get blown off the line all night.

They have Scatteboo and a freshman qb that has never met a hard pipe hitting defense like Texas before. Our d-line will storm through their offensive line. The Texas defensive front seven is going to blitzkrieg their offense all day.

 

Pasted as plain text for dark mode…

Running Back and OL

Lots of hype here. Skataboo feasted on bad run defenses this season. The best was #29 KSU, who gave up 78 yds at 2.9 per carry to Skataboo. After that #31 UCF faced the backup only; #37 Utah: 159 total, 7.2 YPC; #46 BYU:  148, 5.3 YPC; #65 Texas St: 70 total, 2.6 YPC. The rest of their slate was terrible defending the run: #74, 76, 87, 98, 102, 111, 128, 129. It’s hard to know how much is due to ASU strength and how much to opponents weakness. 

The OL has good size and the scheme is mostly gap blocking: Lead, power and counter. They like to run GT Counter. It’s slow developing yet most opposing defenses have not been able to make them pay. Texas has a much better run defense than anything ASU has faced.

QB: Leavitt is a very talented dual-threat. I see him as very similar in talent to Klubnick though with less experience. He has a lot fewer weapons in the passing game. Their TE is solid but the WRs are JAG-ish. Like Klubnick, we will have to account for Leavitt in the running game. 

The truly outstanding thing about ASU’s offense is ball security. They have turned the ball over only 8 times all season: 5 INTs and 3 of 5 fumbles lost. They don’t create a lot of TOs but they give away so few that their margin is still +14. 

22 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

 

Running Back and OL

Lots of hype here. Skataboo feasted on bad run defenses this season. The best was #29 KSU, who gave up 78 yds at 2.9 per carry to Skataboo. After that #31 UCF faced the backup only; #37 Utah: 159 total, 7.2 YPC; #46 BYU:  148, 5.3 YPC; #65 Texas St: 70 total, 2.6 YPC. The rest of their slate was terrible defending the run: #74, 76, 87, 98, 102, 111, 128, 129. It’s hard to know how much is due to ASU strength and how much to opponents weakness. 

The OL has good size and the scheme is mostly gap blocking: Lead, power and counter. They like to run GT Counter. It’s slow developing yet most opposing defenses have not been able to make them pay. Texas has a much better run defense than anything ASU has faced.

QB: Leavitt is a very talented dual-threat. I see him as very similar in talent to Klubnick though with less experience. He has a lot fewer weapons in the passing game. Their TE is solid but the WRs are JAG-ish. Like Klubnick, we will have to account for Leavitt in the running game. 

The truly outstanding thing about ASU’s offense is ball security. They have turned the ball over only 8 times all season: 5 INTs and 3 of 5 fumbles lost. They don’t create a lot of TOs but they give away so few that their margin is still +14. 

 

Edited by Etexhorn13

TL:DR

We dont give a fuck, they are going to lose

  • Popular Post

I'm here for the in depth analysis that confirms my pre existing biases.

3 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

their assholes are fixin' to gape

Interesting choice of a go-to metaphor. 🤔

Texas -13 is free money.  If you're a nurse work OT and bet your check.

9 hours ago, F250 said:

ASU is over matched in this game. There is nothing to analyze, it would be like comparing the Grenada military to the United States prior to the invasion.

ASU doesn't have a defense and will make Wisner and Blue look like Bijan and Rojo are in the back field. Their secondary is trash and will allow Ewers to find open receivers and feast. Not to mention their d-line will get blown off the line all night.

They have Scatteboo and a freshman qb that has never met a hard pipe hitting defense like Texas before. Our d-line will storm through their offensive line. The Texas defensive front seven is going to blitzkrieg their offense all day.

 

I'd like to add TEXAS team speed on both sides of the ball.  Dream season turns nightmare this week for the Devils. 

21 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

I'd like to add TEXAS team speed on both sides of the ball.  Dream season turns nightmare this week for the Devils. 

Yeah this is the most obvious thing I saw vs Clemson. It looked like Texas especially on offense just had a different gear than they did. Clemson has a much better offensive line and defensive line than ASU size and speed wise, so I imagine any mismatch we saw there will be more pronounced here. 

ASU will likely try to throw more than usual early in this game.  They need a great game from their QB to win, and will use him a lot like Clemson did with their QB.

19 minutes ago, immamac said:

Yeah this is the most obvious thing I saw vs Clemson. It looked like Texas especially on offense just had a different gear than they did. Clemson has a much better offensive line and defensive line than ASU size and speed wise, so I imagine any mismatch we saw there will be more pronounced here. 

ASU OL is the smallest line we’ve played since non conference 

  • Popular Post

At the end of this game I want Skataboo to look like Ewers and Arch when we played Georgia in Austin

 

IMG_4206.thumb.jpeg.2923cf99f1ec457ea2d3c1cca03f50f4.jpeg

1 minute ago, D3zii said:

At the end of this game I want Skataboo to look like Ewers and Arch when we played Georgia in Austin

 

IMG_4206.thumb.jpeg.2923cf99f1ec457ea2d3c1cca03f50f4.jpeg

I prefer this

IMG_6402.jpeg.b8cf45476d0a5a5e83a8697f78e90d1a.jpeg

1 minute ago, CashMcCoy said:

I prefer this

IMG_6402.jpeg.b8cf45476d0a5a5e83a8697f78e90d1a.jpeg

Allow David Cross GIF

Here’s ol JWs analysis:

war fighting GIF by Brimstone (The Grindhouse Radio, Hound Comics)
 

play a clean game and we roll. 

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

ASU OL is the smallest line we’ve played since non conference 

So, we're saying Skateboo can't beat us all by himself? I has disappoints in the media's coverage

They are going to run a million screens until one gets picked or Ant Hill breaks their WR or skat bro. 
 

Then they are going to “get creative” running the QB until he’s injured. 
 

Finally they are going to be satisfied to go 3 and out and feed skattebro to the tune of 49 yards on 25 touches. Unless they want to give up points to our defense by trying to throw. 

  • Author
  • Popular Post

ASU Defense plays a base 4-2-5 Nickel and the safeties are the strength of the D. Coverage is primarily zone from a cover 2 shell. They try to disguise coverage and gap responsibilities with pre and post snap movement. Small front 6 is built to create pressure on spread passing teams and cover RBs out of the backfield  

The DL is severely undersized compared to what Texas is used to facing. DTs go about 290 each. DEs are in the 240 range. I expect they will be able to use speed and quickness to compensate for a few drives: run blitzes, slants, stunts. They will slow down with fatigue but Texas OL won’t get any smaller as the game wears on. They don’t have a lot of depth at DT and we can aggravate that by going tempo and preventing substitution within drives.

LBs are fast but also undersized. Both starters are 220 lbs. They have the speed to cover Wisner as a receiver but not Blue. Gunnar Helm is going to be a rough assignment for somebody. I expect the LBs to give a good account of themselves early until the Texas OL can get to them consistently on combo blocks. Also if they are running to exchange gap responsibilities, they can muddy up the blocking but have less attention to spare for reading and avoiding the block. 

Secondary: this is the strength of the D, or half of it is anyway. The corners are undersized (sorry I keep repeating myself): 175 and 185, both 5’11”. They mostly play off the outside receivers in a zone scheme. The safeties have a big job in this defense and Xavion Alford is probably the best player on this side of the ball. He and the other safety have to clean up a lot of the mess created by the planned chaos around the LOS. The 2nd best player on the D is NB Shamari Simmons. He plays near the LOS like an overhang LB much of the time. They blitz him accordingly and he’s the most disruptive defender. He’s frequently asked to support the run. Unfortunately for ASU, he’s out for the 1st half for Targeting in the Big12 CCG. 

The ASU defense is unorthodox but it’s mostly worked for them this season: #24 pass efficiency, #38 run defense (YPC, #27 per game). But it worked in a league that was down compared to prior years. Also, given the amount of disguise and confusion, this defense creates surprisingly few big plays. They have only 21 sacks and 57 TFLs for the season. It seems they disrupt offenses just enough to keep them somewhat off schedule. 

I see a few really severe matchup problems for ASU here. Off coverage from the corners creates space for Sark’s screen game and for the Texas athletes to make a man miss.  I’m not sure the Sun Devils have the personnel to press even if they wanted to. The Front 4 is giving up 60 pounds per man and our TEs being bigger than their DEs makes it a lot harder for them to set the edge even blocking straight up. The smaller LBs behind the small DL may have really ugly conflicts with RPO. ASU seems unlikely to be able to stop the run from base defense. They didn’t even try that against the Big 12. 

Edited by sushihorn

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Convincingly 

Texas wins if we don't turn the ball over. Same as it ever was

11 hours ago, Horn Dogg said:

Cliff notes version:

ASU = Texas Tech

More like Oklahoma State from last year.

16 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

The 2nd best player on the D is NB Shamari Simmons. He plays near the LOS like an overhang LB much of the time. They blitz him accordingly and he’s the most disruptive defender. He’s frequently asked to support the run. Unfortunately for ASU, he’s out for the 1st half for Targeting in the Big12 CCG. 

 

At least we'll know what happened to our offense in the 3rd quarter, for this game. 

  • Author
1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

ASU OL is the smallest line we’ve played since non conference 

True. SEC linemen tend to be huge on both sides of the ball. ASU’s starting OL are 325, 315, 310, 320 and 315, with a 255 pound TE. While they are smaller than most SEC equivalents, I would not characterize them as undersized at all. 

31 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Texas wins if we don't turn the ball over. Same as it ever was

Spoiler: we are going to turn the ball over. It is a given at this point. They key is to not turn it over 3+ times. 

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Spoiler: we are going to turn the ball over. It is a given at this point. They key is to not turn it over 3+ times. 

* Turn it over more than our opponent. I should've clarified.

29 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

True. SEC linemen tend to be huge on both sides of the ball. ASU’s starting OL are 325, 315, 310, 320 and 315, with a 255 pound TE. While they are smaller than most SEC equivalents, I would not characterize them as undersized at all. 

They don’t have as much length though. Feels like they’re starting five guards.

The issue with the "smaller" line is that they try to compensate with speed to muddy up what the bigger guys are trying to do.   I tend to think our guys have the same speed as ASU, just bigger, so the "smaller but faster" argument goes out the window.  At least that is my hope. 

I'm going to stick my neck out here--I think Texas wins.  That may not be a popular opinion here, but I believe it and have to be honest with you total strangers.

Outside of their RT, it definitely seems like they're starting a OL of guards. 

Their LT Atkins is 6'3 320 without the wingspan to make up for it. He's strong at the point of contact though. 

We just gotta focus on winning first and moreso second down against these guys. They've been really good on second downs for whatever reason this year. 

I don't think they'll be able to screen us to death without Tyson. Trey Moore might get a pick or a few batted balls against those as well. 

 

Speaking of Trey Moore, he's going against the kind of OL he used to dominate while at UTSA. Looking at our non-CS EDGEs to be even more active in this game. 

ASU really needs to avoid getting down 14+ pts in the first half. 

ASU will probably follow the MSU game plan. Keep it on the ground, be aggressive on 4th and short and drain the clock to reduce # of possessions.

10 hours ago, Hozz said:

Texas -13 is free money.

I grabbed -12.5 this morning on Mybookie.  Free money indeed.

12 hours ago, Etexhorn13 said:

Pasted as plain text for dark mode…

Running Back and OL

Lots of hype here. Skataboo feasted on bad run defenses this season. The best was #29 KSU, who gave up 78 yds at 2.9 per carry to Skataboo. After that #31 UCF faced the backup only; #37 Utah: 159 total, 7.2 YPC; #46 BYU:  148, 5.3 YPC; #65 Texas St: 70 total, 2.6 YPC. The rest of their slate was terrible defending the run: #74, 76, 87, 98, 102, 111, 128, 129. It’s hard to know how much is due to ASU strength and how much to opponents weakness. 

The OL has good size and the scheme is mostly gap blocking: Lead, power and counter. They like to run GT Counter. It’s slow developing yet most opposing defenses have not been able to make them pay. Texas has a much better run defense than anything ASU has faced.

QB: Leavitt is a very talented dual-threat. I see him as very similar in talent to Klubnick though with less experience. He has a lot fewer weapons in the passing game. Their TE is solid but the WRs are JAG-ish. Like Klubnick, we will have to account for Leavitt in the running game. 

The truly outstanding thing about ASU’s offense is ball security. They have turned the ball over only 8 times all season: 5 INTs and 3 of 5 fumbles lost. They don’t create a lot of TOs but they give away so few that their margin is still +14. 

 

Their offense makes me think of the Gilbert offense with D'Onta Foreman running Power and Counter with our undersized OL. It never seemed like we should have been able to run the ball as well as we did, but we did. They do.

Their offense makes me think of the Gilbert offense with D'Onta Foreman running Power and Counter with our undersized OL. It never seemed like we should have been able to run the ball as well as we did, but we did. They do.

Foreman was literally the best back in the country that season, not just in his own mind.
  • Author
50 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

They don’t have as much length though. Feels like they’re starting five guards.

Basically they are. They do a decent job of pass protection as long as play action is a realistic threat. I’m curious to see what 3rd and long looks like especially against the Texas edge rushers. 

2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Basically they are. They do a decent job of pass protection as long as play action is a realistic threat. I’m curious to see what 3rd and long looks like especially against the Texas edge rushers. 

Hopefully Simmons’ speed and length destroys their tackle guards and disrupts many run and pass plays. 

7 minutes ago, Jkwellborn said:


Foreman was literally the best back in the country that season, not just in his own mind.

The offense was perfect for him.

Skattebo has been really good. He is carrying that team. No need to pretend he isn't.

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Spoiler: we are going to turn the ball over. It is a given at this point. They key is to not turn it over 3+ times. 

 

1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

* Turn it over more than our opponent. I should've clarified.

This is how ASU beat ISU in the CG. ISU had Back-to-Back-to-Back turnovers that lead to TDs for ASU. Game was blown then.

 

 

The offense was perfect for him.
Skattebo has been really good. He is carrying that team. No need to pretend he isn't.

Oh I’m not pretending he isn’t. He’s probably going to give the defense a hard time for at least a half.

I don’t think he’ll give us that hard of a time if Lole, Collins, and Norton do what I think they will.

Lole playing his old old team. Our defensive front is used to playing against much more size/strength/athleticism than this. I think that’s something that will tilt heavy in our favor as the game progresses. 

btw, y'all need to be giving sushi ALL the rep for doing this shit

  • Author
  • Popular Post

The defensive averages seem to mask real vulnerabilities on the ASU defense. The better running teams were able to pile up yards on the ground. UCF was ranked #6 in rushing. They ran for 177 at 4.8 yards per carry.

#12 KSU: 154 total, 6.2 YPC

#14 KU: 152, 4.6

#16 Texas St: 132, 4.3

#37 Cincinnati: 191, 5.0

The rest of the schedule were mediocre to poor at running the ball: #62, 69, 73, 87, 88, 98, 114 and 119.  While Texas is nominally the #49 running teams, that has been compiled against a pretty rugged schedule. I feel comfortable saying the Longhorn running game is at least the equal of KU or Texas State. 😛

AZ St played a very weak schedule overall. 6 conference opponents had losing records, plus they played the worst team in the SEC: winless MSU; then Wyoming and Texas State. I don’t know how much credence to give stats and results when ASU’s opponents have been so poor. They face a huge jump in competition this week  

 

2 hours ago, ATXhorn17 said:

ASU will probably follow the MSU game plan. Keep it on the ground, be aggressive on 4th and short and drain the clock to reduce # of possessions.

I think this is true. 

This is a game scoring early and putting the anus on them to keep up will decide whether it's an easy win or another crazy nail biter.

  • Author
17 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

their assholes are fixin' to gape

They are a gape scheme offense. 

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