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Went through this exercise finally. As I've said elsewhere the 12 team setup is perfect, the problem is the stupid oversized conferences. If we had the 12-team playoff 25 years ago everything would be great. Here are some past seasons using the 12-team playoff setup and final BCS rankings. I am going to show each season with the current guarantees then each season with my proposed solution of guaranteeing the top 4 conference champions Top 8 seeds (so either a bye or home game) instead of Top 4. I am going to focus on seasons relevant for Texas because I'm wasting my time doing this, wasting your time reading it is your decision (conference champs in bold):

2000

Holy shit yes in 2000 we make a 12-team playoff after getting skullfucked 63-14 by Oklahoma.

Current guarantees:
#1 Oklahoma versus winner of #9 Kansas State @ #8 Nebraska
#4 Washington versus winner of #12 Texas at #5 Virginia Tech
#2 Florida St. versus winner of #10 Oregon at #7 Florida
#3 Miami (FL) versus winner of #11 Notre Dame at #6 Oregon State

Changed guarantees: no change, #1-4 in rankings were conference champions.

Summary - Big Ten left completely out as Purdue was the 6th rated conference champion and were outside the Top 12. This playoff kicks ass as all of these will because the conferences were still split up so we get awesome interregional matchups for the first time and guaranteeing the top 5 conference champions something makes more sense when there are more conferences.

2001

Current guarantees:
#1 Miami (FL) versus winner of #9 Stanford @ #8 Texas
#4 Illinois versus winner of #12 Washington St. at #5 Nebraska
#2 Colorado versus winner of #10 Maryland at #7 Tennessee
#3 Oregon versus winner of #11 Oklahoma at #6 Florida

Changed guarantees:
#1 Miami (FL) versus winner of #9 Stanford @ #8 Illinois
#4 Oregon versus winner of #12 Washington St. at #5 Florida
#2 Nebraska versus winner of #10 Maryland at #7 Texas
#3 Colorado versus winner of #11 Oklahoma at #6 Tennessee

Summary - Surprise SEC championship game winner LSU is left out of the playoff as they were 13th in the BCS. First controversy but try not losing 3 games. Sound familiar? Current setup gives Illinois a bye, my proposal replaces that with a much stronger Nebraska team.

2002

Current guarantees:
#1 Miami (FL) versus winner of #9 Notre Dame @ #8 Kansas St.
#4 Washington St. versus winner of #12 Penn St. at #5 Southern Cal
#2 Ohio St. versus winner of #10 Texas at #7 Oklahoma (!!!)
#3 Georgia versus winner of #11 Michigan at #6 Iowa

Changed guarantees:
#1 Miami (FL) versus winner of #9 Notre Dame @ #8 Kansas St.
#4 Southern Cal versus winner of #12 Penn St. at #5 Iowa
#2 Ohio St. versus winner of #10 Texas at #7 Oklahoma (!!!)
#3 Georgia versus winner of #11 Michigan at #6 Washington St.

Summary - Texas playing in Norman in either setup. Florida State misses as ACC champion, but hello they were 9-4.

2003

Current guarantees:
#1 LSU versus winner of #9 Miami (FL) @ #8 Tennessee
#4 Florida St. versus winner of #12 Georgia at #5 Oklahoma
#2 Southern Cal versus winner of #10 Kansas St. at #7 Texas
#3 Michigan versus winner of #11 Miami (OH) at #6 Ohio St.

Changed guarantees:
#1 Oklahoma versus winner of #9 Miami (FL) @ #8 Tennessee
#4 Michigan versus winner of #12 Georgia at #5 Ohio St.
#2 LSU versus winner of #10 Kansas St. at #7 Florida St.
#3 Southern Cal versus winner of #11 Miami (OH) at #6 Texas

Summary - MACtion in the playoff! Roethlisberger in Columbus in the current setup but visits Austin in the proposed setup. This is the first really good one showing the wisdom of guaranteeing top 8 instead of top 4 for the 4 top ranked conference champions.

2004

Current guarantees:
#1 Southern Cal versus winner of #9 Boise St. @ #8 Virginia Tech
#4 Utah versus winner of #12 Iowa at #5 Texas
#2 Oklahoma versus winner of #10 Louisville at #7 Georgia
#3 Auburn versus winner of #11 LSU at #6 California

Changed guarantees:
#1 Southern Cal versus winner of #9 Boise St. @ #8 Virginia Tech
#4 Texas versus winner of #12 Iowa at #5 California
#2 Oklahoma versus winner of #10 Louisville at #7 Georgia
#3 Auburn versus winner of #11 LSU at #6 Utah

Summary - 8 conference champions in the playoff! What a great one this would have been instead of having only that asskicking Southern Cal gave Oklahoma. Proposed setup would have let Aaron Rodgers run his mouth directly to Mack Brown in a quarterfinal if they beat Iowa.

2005

Current guarantees:
#1 Southern Cal versus winner of #9 Auburn @ #8 Miami (FL)
#4 Georgia versus winner of #12 LSU at #5 Ohio St.
#2 Texas versus winner of #10 Virginia Tech at #7 Notre Dame
#3 Penn St. versus winner of #11 West Virginia at #6 Oregon

Changed guarantees:
#1 Southern Cal versus winner of #9 Auburn @ #8 Miami (FL)
#4 Ohio St. versus winner of #12 LSU at #5 Oregon
#2 Texas versus winner of #10 Virginia Tech at #7 Georgia
#3 Penn St. versus winner of #11 West Virginia at #6 Notre Dame

Summary - While this playoff was obviously completely unnecessary, I made the Big Ten declare a champion between their co-champions and in my revised history they were smart and just went with the higher ranked team in the BCS.

2006 and 2007 - Skipped because who cares

2008

Current guarantees:
#1 Oklahoma versus winner of #9 Boise St. @ #8 Penn St.
#4 Utah versus winner of #12 Cincinnati at #5 Texas
#2 Florida versus winner of #10 Ohio St. at #7 Texas Tech
#3 Southern Cal versus winner of #11 TCU at #6 Alabama

Changed guarantees:
#1 Oklahoma versus winner of #9 Boise St. @ #8 Penn St.
#4 Alabama versus winner of #12 Cincinnati at #5 Southern Cal
#2 Florida versus winner of #10 Ohio St. at #7 Texas Tech
#3 Texas versus winner of #11 TCU at #6 Utah

Summary - Same thing as 2005 with Big Ten co-champions. Would have been great a great playoff again with eight conference champions.

2009

Current guarantees:
#1 Alabama versus winner of #9 Georgia Tech @ #8 Ohio St.
#4 TCU versus winner of #12 LSU at #5 Florida
#2 Texas versus winner of #10 Iowa at #7 Oregon
#3 Cincinnati versus winner of #11 Virginia Tech at #6 Boise St.

Changed guarantees: no change, #1-4 in rankings were conference champions.

Summary - Another 8 conference champ playoff, and another awesome college football spectacle it would have been.

Edited by Huckleberry

  • Author
  • Popular Post

tl;dr

The 12 team playoff is awesome. The problem is the consolidation into oversized conferences purely for money. If they had instituted the 12-team playoff 25 years ago the money would be absurd at this point and college football wouldn't have these stupid megaconferences. Get off my lawn.

College football and all of the current chaos associated with NIL and the portal is pretty much perfect. 

10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

tl;dr

The 12 team playoff is awesome. The problem is the consolidation into oversized conferences purely for money. If they had instituted the 12-team playoff 25 years ago the money would be absurd at this point and college football wouldn't have these stupid megaconferences. Get off my lawn.

agreed.  min of 8 was the answer 25 years ago but the Bowls(particularly Rose) had too much money and influence vs. TV money.  the conferences, specifically SEC, decided we will make you irrelevant.

Make mega conferences all play either 9-10 games in conference and no FCS  on schedule.  That would probably fix every thing. 

  • Author
14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If we just change the top 4 rule to top 8, does that mitigate the mega conference thing?

Not really because part of the issue is how many teams who finished 3rd or eventually 4th in their conference will still make it. That's what makes it feel like less of a true championship playoff.

Current guarantees:
#1 Oregon versus winner of #9 Tennessee @ #8 Ohio St.
#4 Arizona St. versus winner of #12 Clemson at #5 Texas
#2 Georgia versus winner of #10 Indiana at #7 Notre Dame
#3 Boise St. versus winner of #11 SMU at #6 Penn St.

Changed guarantees:

#1 Oregon versus winner of #9 Tennessee @ #8 Arizona St.
#4 Penn St. versus winner of #12 Clemson at #5 Notre Dame
#2 Georgia versus winner of #10 Indiana at #7 Boise St.
#3 Texas versus winner of #11 SMU at #6 Ohio St.

That's better but still not as great as it could have been. Using the 2009 conferences and assuming all teams are just as good, here is the result:

Current guarantees:
#1 Oregon (Pac-12 Champ) versus winner of #9 Boise St. (WAC Champ) @ #8 Indiana
#4 Penn St. (Big Ten Champ) versus winner of #12 Arizona St. at #5 Notre Dame
#2 Georgia (SEC Champ) versus winner of #10 SMU (C-USA Champ) at #7 Tennessee
#3 Texas (Big 12 Champ) versus winner of #11 Alabama at #6 Ohio St.

Changed guarantees: No changes needed

Now obviously the season doesn't play out the same because schedules are so different (Ohio St. is probably Big Ten champ instead of Penn St., for example) but the interregionality is what makes it better with more conferences leading to more discussion and more excitement all season long. And teams like Indiana will have more losses if they had to play nearly everyone in their conference so they almost certainly wouldn't have been #8 with old conference alignments. Also note that the garbage ACC is left out completely (because SMU is C-USA).

Edited by Huckleberry

Interesting thought exercise, but Doc Brown and the DeLorean aren’t walking through the door anytime soon.

I think the problem is scheduling. A 10 game conference schedule wouldn’t allow any Big Ten or SEC teams to hide behind an easy schedule. It would also eliminate the need for many of the tiebreaker scenarios.

More conference games, fix the seeding, and we’d have a terrific product with more competitive games. 

Great post. I hate the mega conferences. I was actually wanting smaller conferences, but that doesn’t matter now.

What's going to happen after a death blow court decision against the NCAA makes that organization go the way of the Dodo bird? There will be two or three mega conferences that will have to govern themselves. I would think they would have to have a "commissioner" or some kind of board to make decisions.

This is the way so called "college" football is headed.

in the context of modifications to the playoff structure, possibly the most influential postseason game this year was last night when the brethren falcon-punched deon

reminder that i am not a byu 'hater' but i take every opportunity to make them uncomfortable given their namesake ordered the murder of my ancestors, but i digress....

thus it gives me no joy to say the brethren have the biggest gripe about being left out

let's see how asu plays - hopefully they are shite and we win convincingly

but so far, byu belonged over indiana, smu & tennessee

so with the 20/20 hindsight @Huckleberry how does byu get in over those 3

If you think the 12-team playoff is perfect (it’s not, it sucks) then you’ll love the 16-team playoff coming soon. 

10 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

tl;dr

The 12 team playoff is awesome. The problem is the consolidation into oversized conferences purely for money. If they had instituted the 12-team playoff 25 years ago the money would be absurd at this point and college football wouldn't have these stupid megaconferences. Get off my lawn.

I mean of course if you still had the Big East and Pac10/12 you would have better conference champions so the system would be nowhere near as borked as it was this year. Hell if you just had it last year when FSU went 12-0 and Washington, Alabama, Texas, & Michigan were all around you'd have had a better draw.

They just need to scrap conference champion preference and guarantees entirely. They didn't have them in the BCS or the 4 team rendition including them in this run is what fucked Oregon and to a lesser extent Georgia.

5 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

If you think the 12-team playoff is perfect (it’s not, it sucks) then you’ll love the 16-team playoff coming soon. 

Star Wars GIF

24.  Top 8 get byes.  Many more bowls filled by playoff games.

or seed it more like 16 but the bottom 8 have play-in games. So 24 and 23 play and are in the #1 draw for the sweet 16. And 9/10 winner plays 8. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto

4 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

24.  Top 8 get byes.  Many more bowls filled by playoff games.

or seed it more like 16 but the bottom 8 have play-in games. So 24 and 23 play and are in the #1 draw for the sweet 16. And 9/10 winner plays 8. 

That would never work, it would have to be more teams hosting first couple of rounds. 

Thank you. I’m pro playoffs but would like 16.  Of course this would mean we’d have had to play ou a few more times 

Edited by closetohumping

Its interesting that ESPN both

A. Teamed with the NFL to put a game featuring the leagues biggest star Mahomes on Saturday directly in competition with the playoff games on TNT

B. Have their top cfb talking head Herbstreit shit all over the new playoff system repeatedly

It looks like ESPN is so invested in the mega conference system, in particular the SEC that they want the playoff to fail so the conference can set up its own postseason tournament 

17 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Interesting thought exercise, but Doc Brown and the DeLorean aren’t walking through the door anytime soon.

I think the problem is scheduling. A 10 game conference schedule wouldn’t allow any Big Ten or SEC teams to hide behind an easy schedule. It would also eliminate the need for many of the tiebreaker scenarios.

More conference games, fix the seeding, and we’d have a terrific product with more competitive games. 

There are 18 big 10 teams and all but 3 are shitty.  There could still be Indianas squeaking through even if they played 10 other teams.  The conference is just too big.   Also, playing 2 more conference games takes away $3 million in budget from G5 and FCS teams.  Many would drop sports.  Nobody here gives a shit about that, but it does pay for college for hundreds of kids a year.

18 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

tl;dr

The 12 team playoff is awesome. The problem is the consolidation into oversized conferences purely for money. If they had instituted the 12-team playoff 25 years ago the money would be absurd at this point and college football wouldn't have these stupid megaconferences. Get off my lawn.

Yup.

I think this was already posted but the current format was designed with five power conferences in mind prior to the latest realignment round. This format makes a whole lot more sense in that world for the first round byes.

In that world, the byes are likely Oregon, Ohio St, Texas, and Georgia. Megaconferences allowed Arizona State and Boise State to get first round byes instead of Ohio State and Texas.

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Yup.

I think this was already posted but the current format was designed with five power conferences in mind prior to the latest realignment round. This format makes a whole lot more sense in that world for the first round byes.

In that world, the byes are likely Oregon, Ohio St, Texas, and Georgia. Megaconferences allowed Arizona State and Boise State to get first round byes instead of Ohio State and Texas.

There will be “in-depth discussions” about not guaranteeing conference champs the top 4

seeds in 2025, sources said. Top 5 conference champs still would get in playoff but rankings would determine seeds, sources said. This would require unanimous approval by all stake holders to change in 2025 but conference commissioners “open to getting (the seeding) right,” source said

I think a bye is a good reward for conference champs and would be fine with reseeding them after the first round, which should be more accurately called the play-in round.

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I think a bye is a good reward for conference champs and would be fine with reseeding them after the first round, which should be more accurately called the play-in round.

Fuck byes.

 

go to 16 teams, top 8 seeds host, higher seeds host the following round. The viewership of CCG's won't allow for them to go away. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I think a bye is a good reward for conference champs and would be fine with reseeding them after the first round, which should be more accurately called the play-in round.

Fuck byes...go to 16 teams, top 8 seeds host, higher seeds host the following round.


Using the CFP Rankings from week before CCGs.

Image

  • Author

Still say give the top 4 conference champs a top 8 seed instead of top 4. 

That actually helps the 1 and 2 seeds by pushing bad conference champs into the 7 and 8 slots.

My only thoughts which are the same as a lot of people:

1. If you are going to use rankings to see who is in the playoffs, then seed the damn teams how they are ranked. Makes ZERO sense to have Boise and Arizona State #3 and #4 this year.
2. Don't give the 1-4 seeds byes, just do a regular ol  1 v 12, 2 v 11, etc etc the first week. Keep those first-round games as home games for the higher seeds. LOVE that idea although this year really sucked. (Except Texas winning of course)
 

  • Author
2 minutes ago, Dignan said:

My only thoughts which are the same as a lot of people:

1. If you are going to use rankings to see who is in the playoffs, then seed the damn teams how they are ranked. Makes ZERO sense to have Boise and Arizona State #3 and #4 this year.
2. Don't give the 1-4 seeds byes, just do a regular ol  1 v 12, 2 v 11, etc etc the first week. Keep those first-round games as home games for the higher seeds. LOVE that idea although this year really sucked. (Except Texas winning of course)
 

And what do you do when there are 6 teams left after your first round? Byes after that round?

9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

And what do you do when there are 6 teams left after your first round? Byes after that round?

Triple elimination 

The playoffs are working as they should. They are weeding out the teams that claimed to be contenders, but now show on the field that they aren’t. The teams that were on the cusp (ie Bama) already showed they aren’t contenders.

The mediocrity ran a lot deeper this year than it usually does. Hard to tell if this is how things are going to be under NIL and portal transfers or if it's just a weird year like 2007 was. I don't think the first round of a 12 team playoff is usually going to be this noncompetitive, though, and I don't like overcorrecting based on a sample size of 1.

21 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

tl;dr

The 12 team playoff is awesome. The problem is the consolidation into oversized conferences purely for money. If they had instituted the 12-team playoff 25 years ago the money would be absurd at this point and college football wouldn't have these stupid megaconferences. Get off my lawn.

While the megaconferences present a problem with the playoff, it's a tradeoff I will gladly make for better regular season games.

We played mostly the bottom half of the SEC, but our schedule this year was still the most compelling it has been since before Nebraska and A&M bailed on the Big 12. We also got more regular season games between helmet schools across the country.

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Fuck byes...go to 16 teams, top 8 seeds host, higher seeds host the following round.


Using the CFP Rankings from week before CCGs.

Image

This is an actual ass of a first-round.

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

This is an actual ass of a first-round.

Better than this years in terms of matchups but the first round will never be perfect in terms of matchups at 12 plus teams. The field isn’t going to shrink back down either. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White

the megaconferences are like the airlines and railroads

capitalism forces them towards consolidation and oligarchy

80% of the us population lives in the eastern and central time zones

the mountain and west time zone schools had to get in to 4-time-zone conferences to max out their tv revenue

what happens from here is anybody's guess

2 hours ago, Dignan said:

My only thoughts which are the same as a lot of people:

1. If you are going to use rankings to see who is in the playoffs, then seed the damn teams how they are ranked. Makes ZERO sense to have Boise and Arizona State #3 and #4 this year.
2. Don't give the 1-4 seeds byes, just do a regular ol  1 v 12, 2 v 11, etc etc the first week. Keep those first-round games as home games for the higher seeds. LOVE that idea although this year really sucked. (Except Texas winning of course)
 

hahaha. I am drunk. I meant 16 teams as earlier mentioned. 

16 teams is too goddamn many, what you're proposing is having 2 teams guaranteed playing an extra half a seasons worth of games. There aren't 16 good teams a year. Fucking 12 is too many did anyone really need to see SMU Indiana Tennessee and Clemson get trounced? 8 teams no byes neutral sites thats it.

Edited by Michael Knight

4 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

16 teams is too goddamn many, what you're proposing is having 2 teams guaranteed playing an extra half a seasons worth of games. There aren't 16 good teams a year. Fucking 12 is too many did anyone really need to see SMU Indiana Tennessee and Clemson get trounced? 8 teams no byes neutral sites thats it.

Yeah 8 teams isn't happening anymore. Just get 8 teams out of your head. The BB's aren't going back into the box. I was pro 8 team as well but they decided to 12 team it....

Edited by BurntOrange&White

2 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

16 teams is too goddamn many, what you're proposing is having 2 teams guaranteed playing an extra half a seasons worth of games. Fucking 12 is too many did anyone really need to see SMU Indiana Tennessee and Clemson get trounced? 8 teams no byes neutral sites thats it.

Was thinking about this the other day and the huge advantages teams like Texas currently get from this system. 

Non-playoff bowl games feature a ton of opt-outs with some teams half-assing it out there. They are not nearly as useful or competitive as they used to be.  Texas is about to play their 2nd postseason game against complete squads that are playing at their highest level. It's huge for returning Texas players to get that kind of experience in multiple games that other teams completely miss out on. It's gonna make the gap between the top 5-6 programs and the rest of CFB even wider. 

 

 

39 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Was thinking about this the other day and the huge advantages teams like Texas currently get from this system. 

Non-playoff bowl games feature a ton of opt-outs with some teams half-assing it out there. They are not nearly as useful or competitive as they used to be.  Texas is about to play their 2nd postseason game against complete squads that are playing at their highest level. It's huge for returning Texas players to get that kind of experience in multiple games that other teams completely miss out on. It's gonna make the gap between the top 5-6 programs and the rest of CFB even wider. 

 

 

Not to mention the fact that recruits are going to want that extra exposure against top level competition with the national spotlight on them. That will make the funnel effect even stronger to Texas. 

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

There will be “in-depth discussions” about not guaranteeing conference champs the top 4

seeds in 2025, sources said. Top 5 conference champs still would get in playoff but rankings would determine seeds, sources said. This would require unanimous approval by all stake holders to change in 2025 but conference commissioners “open to getting (the seeding) right,” source said

A non-conference champion getting a bye will immediately destroy the value of conference championship games.

If Boise State or (God forbid) ASU wins their matchup this discussion disappears.

Great analysis. The real problem with mega conferences is that, like entropy, this is a one way phenomenon.  Outside of a societal collapse, what universities will vote for less money?  This is truly not going back.

3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Neither of those upsets will happen. CCGs are about to be what they are - worthless - with this change. Boise and ASU have zero business as 3 and 4 seeds. It will not be this way next year, even if Moose and Rocco have got to visit that pederast Yormark. 

Rex, the football gods don’t like arrogant confidence.  It will be your fault.😖

3 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

Great analysis. The real problem with mega conferences is that, like entropy, this is a one way phenomenon.  Outside of a societal collapse, what universities will vote for less money?  This is truly not going back.

The part I'll never understand is why TV revenue isn't just distributed to schools based on appearances and rating. Install a floor if needed to prevent some schools from going into the red during down years but let Michigan, Texas, Alabama, etc. make a ton of money, and everyone else makes good money. USC shouldn't have to join a conference with Rutgers and Maryland to make more money, and Purdue shouldn't be making twice as much as KState, FSU, and Clemson. 

Edited by 'stache

Keep the byes for the conference champs.  Maybe eventually teams will get the hint and stop doing espn's bidding and de-superconference and look for greener pastures.

  • Author
2 minutes ago, WBT said:

Keep the byes for the conference champs.  Maybe eventually teams will get the hint and stop doing espn's bidding and de-superconference and look for greener pastures.

This is the way to fix the megaconference problem but the issue is of course that the conferences are making the decision and the smaller ones get run over every time because of the threat of a breakaway. The NCAA's refusal and/or inability to set up an FBS playoff made this the inevitable result. 

22 minutes ago, satyanash said:

A non-conference champion getting a bye will immediately destroy the value of conference championship games.

If Boise State or (God forbid) ASU wins their matchup this discussion disappears.

Lol, it wont happen. And it doesnt destroy the value for ACC and Big 12 who will need those games to even get teams in the playoffs.  

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

This is the way to fix the megaconference problem but the issue is of course that the conferences are making the decision and the smaller ones get run over every time because of the threat of a breakaway. The NCAA's refusal and/or inability to set up an FBS playoff made this the inevitable result. 

Yeah I know.  It was idle daydreaming.

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