July 5Jul 5 IMG_6713.mov IMG_6714.mov The South Fork of the San Gabriel at the Ronald Reagan bridge at 7:00am
July 5Jul 5 On the subject of the MCS itself, how did pretty much all the forecasts miss it? Does phdhorn still post here? Random meteorologists are showing up on my Facebook feed claiming they knew it was coming, but I don’t think anybody did.
July 5Jul 5 6 minutes ago, HiggyBaby said: On the subject of the MCS itself, how did pretty much all the forecasts miss it? Does phdhorn still post here? Random meteorologists are showing up on my Facebook feed claiming they knew it was coming, but I don’t think anybody did. These Hill Country rain events are hard to predict, especially when they involve tropical systems that come in from the south through Mexico. Some of th early models had the heaviest rains happening further south and west in the Concan/Uvalde/Leakey area. In fact I went to bed Thursday evening expecting just that to not only wake up early Friday to all the horrible news breaking just to the north of the area. This system was supposed to kick out the region yesterday and here it is today flooding areas further east this morning. Same thing with Harvey back in 2017 that was supposed to do the classic hit the coast and head toward the San Antonio area and then it curved Northeast and stalled more like an old frontal boundary and did it’s thing to the Houston area. I think the best Mets can put a forecast out there, but weather systems and patterns have a mind of their own.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post 17 minutes ago, HiggyBaby said: On the subject of the MCS itself, how did pretty much all the forecasts miss it? Does phdhorn still post here? Random meteorologists are showing up on my Facebook feed claiming they knew it was coming, but I don’t think anybody did. https://www.npr.org/2025/02/27/nx-s1-5298738/trump-administration-layoffs-hit-noaa-the-agency-that-forecasts-weather-and-hurricanes https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/how-noaa-funding-cuts-could-make-it-harder-to-predict-and-prepare-for-severe-weather
July 5Jul 5 34 minutes ago, leaf said: IMG_6713.mov 26.7 MB · 9 downloads IMG_6714.mov 45.78 MB · 6 downloads The South Fork of the San Gabriel at the Ronald Reagan bridge at 7:00am goddamn, that's 5 minutes from me.
July 5Jul 5 29 minutes ago, smuggs said: What an absolute nightmare. God bless everyone involved. I’m really at a loss for words. Yeah, I'm up here in Denton and I don't know what to say except this is horrible.
July 5Jul 5 38 minutes ago, leaf said: IMG_6713.mov 26.7 MB · 10 downloads IMG_6714.mov 45.78 MB · 8 downloads The South Fork of the San Gabriel at the Ronald Reagan bridge at 7:00am Where is the water level in relation to the new housing subdivision just to the north of there? They built really close to the river. Also, given the big jump in level at Travis this morning, I’m assuming LCRA just keeps the dam totally closed to refill the lake? I haven't seen any specific note about that.
July 5Jul 5 41 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said: I had to go pick my oldest up from his mom's place in Georgetown at 3am so I could take him to the airport and yeah, I caught one of those bands that peeled off around that time. Shit was hairy. After this happening yesterday, it was rough dropping him off this morning. He's going for a week to a scout camp just outside Asheville, NC and that tropical storm has me nervous as hell. Did ask about the camps emergency plan? It wasn't that long ago Asheville was completely flooded.
July 5Jul 5 1 minute ago, troph said: Holy shit lake Travis is up 10 feet over night. I think it was 2014 Memorial Weekend floods that filled the whole thing up. Would be nice if we could get it at least close to full, but still a long way to go. https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume
July 5Jul 5 12 minutes ago, troph said: Man this thing keeps dumping water now the last 24 hours over the north side of lake Travis. Wow. flood risk ain’t over yet folks. Yeah I'm near that 3.8 on the far right, along Cypress Creek. We've had a lot of rain but just to the west of us over in Jonestown/Big Sandy they've had a lot more. Big Sandy Creek running at 48K cfs and it's starting to rain again, predictions are for some of the heaviest rain we've seen yet between now and noon. I'm reading that 1431 is closed at Lago Vista. 8 minutes ago, troph said: Holy shit lake Travis is up 10 feet over night. I think it's possible it'll rise another 10' today, it's about to start raining heavy again, on the same areas north of the lake. Edited July 5Jul 5 by utee94
July 5Jul 5 Yeah, from what I can find on the lake level and release they are catching it all and letting next to nothing out. Plenty of room for a bunch of water. https://www.swf-wc.usace.army.mil/lake/status.htm
July 5Jul 5 6 hours ago, Nicole44 said: Thank you for sharing and glad you and son are safe. And yes it’s all devastating from the sources I am getting as well. When the Judge said “all accounted for” hours earlier today he meant the girls the camp had moved to higher ground. The judge was not counting the ones who had been caught in the flood. Separate things unfortunately. It’s as bad as we all think and I won’t be posting the other names I already have regardless of parental announcements. I posted the one girl’s because I had permission to do so. It’s all bad. And I do think the FLIR does help at night. It’s heart wrenching. So without any knowledge of Kerr county and its elected officials, the judge sounds like a real fucking piece of shit.
July 5Jul 5 30 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said: These Hill Country rain events are hard to predict, especially when they involve tropical systems that come in from the south through Mexico. Some of th early models had the heaviest rains happening further south and west in the Concan/Uvalde/Leakey area. In fact I went to bed Thursday evening expecting just that to not only wake up early Friday to all the horrible news breaking just to the north of the area. This system was supposed to kick out the region yesterday and here it is today flooding areas further east this morning. Same thing with Harvey back in 2017 that was supposed to do the classic hit the coast and head toward the San Antonio area and then it curved Northeast and stalled more like an old frontal boundary and did it’s thing to the Houston area. I think the best Mets can put a forecast out there, but weather systems and patterns have a mind of their own. That’s not entirely true. Several posters here have referenced the SA who nailed Friday also saying Saturday would come back with a vengeance. Some folks are getting it right.
July 5Jul 5 10 hours ago, InkaUtexas said: Remember when I told you about that system off Mexico? Yeah. Yep. Who'd think a pacific borne system could do this here. Whens the lat time that happened?
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said: That’s not entirely true. Several posters here have referenced the SA who nailed Friday also saying Saturday would come back with a vengeance. Some folks are getting it right. I will admit I’ve been real busy this week and my usual weather nerd browsing of stuff which I usually do this time of the year due to the tropical season was a very minimum. Thank you for the clarification if I missed some stuff.
July 5Jul 5 8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said: So without any knowledge of Kerr county and its elected officials, the judge sounds like a real fucking piece of shit. He's probably gonna hand his resignation letter by the end of the week. Especially after Dan Patrick shit on him
July 5Jul 5 8 minutes ago, troph said: After last night I can see over 20 feet rise, early projections were 10 feet over a few days. I thought that was low, every basin had a river at or above flood stage. 2018 it was llano only (blanco too outside LCRA watersheds). This time it’s San Saba, llano, perd, now Hamilton creek and big sandy creek are flowing 50,000 CFS up from ZERO. And of course guad outside LCRA watersheds. Wow. My weather app future radar just parks this thing directly over the lakes for the next several hours.
July 5Jul 5 5 minutes ago, MissingInAction said: Yep. Who'd think a pacific borne system could do this here. Whens the lat time that happened?
July 5Jul 5 4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said: Yep. Who'd think a pacific borne system could do this here. Whens the lat time that happened? Yes. It’s not uncommon at all depending where it hits in Mexico. Many of them do go more west toward the Big Bend area and contribute to the August monsoon season.
July 5Jul 5 the devestating loss of the girls is most in my mind, but Ive seen several posts over the last day that seem to be going into a dangerous monday morning quartreback role. its been 17 years since I moved back to austin and the lake level has always been something the meteorolgists talked about a lot. Like a lot a lot. and in the last 17 years when the lake level got below 670, any forecasted rain event that could have Lake level implications was always mentioned/ talked about by those weather folks. and in every single case I can remember, a possible lake level rise impactor system was always talke about for multiple days leading up to the event- even those times when the possible prediciotion didnt pan out or was a small lake riser.... I do not recall a single weather app, forecaster, or even the JV crew now working KXAN even THNKING about mentionging this storm system being a mega Lake rise impactor yet, in 1 day LT has gone up 8 feet, with this rain bomb hitting in the Lago Vista/Leander area thats gonna go up even more... my point.... the predictors mentioned yes there was a chance for flooding... but none of them even thought about talking about a 15+ foot lake rise in 2 days and that looks like what is going to happen. this fucking storm is a complete outlier.
July 5Jul 5 The latest radar forecast i just looked at showing Austin at the eye of this thing as it just spins and pisses on us for the next 6 hours.
July 5Jul 5 Two of my brothers kids & grandkids (with great grandkids) live out south of Liberty Hill in the country and one on the lake at Marble Falls….the latter in the recently designated flood plain. Hoping they are ok.
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said: the devestating loss of the girls is most in my mind, but Ive seen several posts over the last day that seem to be going into a dangerous monday morning quartreback role. its been 17 years since I moved back to austin and the lake level has always been something the meteorolgists talked about a lot. Like a lot a lot. and in the last 17 years when the lake level got below 670, any forecasted rain event that could have Lake level implications was always mentioned/ talked about by those weather folks. and in every single case I can remember, a possible lake level rise impactor system was always talke about for multiple days leading up to the event- even those times when the possible prediciotion didnt pan out or was a small lake riser.... I do not recall a single weather app, forecaster, or even the JV crew now working KXAN even THNKING about mentionging this storm system being a mega Lake rise impactor yet, in 1 day LT has gone up 8 feet, with this rain bomb hitting in the Lago Vista/Leander area thats gonna go up even more... my point.... the predictors mentioned yes there was a chance for flooding... but none of them even thought about talking about a 15+ foot lake rise in 2 days and that looks like what is going to happen. this fucking storm is a complete outlier. That doesn’t sound like an outlier since another storm did similar within the last 10 years. It sounds like the way these things are reported on is the problem. Maybe if reporters led with “potential lake filling event” people would pa more attention. we can’t keep saying 1000 year storm events when they happen every few years.
July 5Jul 5 1 hour ago, UnivTex34 said: Man, that cell up on the north side of Lake Travis is just wild. Did basically the same thing as the storm that inundated the Guad/SanSaba. Just sat and spun all night. Hope anyone up in that area is safe. Should be enough rain to convince LCRA it'll be fine to let some more new housing developments put straws in the lake.
July 5Jul 5 Following the Shoal Creek flood in 1991 Austin installed an early flood warning system. Has there been ongoing discussion/investigation of something similar in Hill Country?
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post 7 minutes ago, MissingInAction said: I was only off by one ocean. I dont work for NOAA. Thanks to DOGE, a lot of former NOAA staff dont either. It will be interesting to watch the battle of spin here. In one corner you will have texas top politicians pushing the narrative that the forecasters are to blame and they had no inkling this rain was coming, and then in the other corner you will have people blaming the disruptions at NOAA and NWS due to staff cuts, in the other other corner you will have Trump's administration insisting those cuts had no effect, and in the last other corner people will probably be blaming Biden. My gut tells me that some loss of life was probably unavoidable due to the magnuitude of the event, and general incompetence by local authorities compounded matters. Inexcusable to have that many kids camping on a river in the hill country when forecasts for 7 inches of rain at the high end were put out the day before. Edited July 5Jul 5 by Blotto
July 5Jul 5 All you miserable fuckers itching your vaginas to blame someone for this need to fuck the fuck off. Read this: https://apple.news/A1LQmfIsOTVe7UjxAAIEdQA Yeah, it’s probably paywalled. So if you’re too poor to afford Apple News then I can’t help you
July 5Jul 5 21 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said: we can’t keep saying 1000 year storm events when they happen every few years. 1000 day events?
July 5Jul 5 Not sure about y’all but it has not stopped raining since 10 pm in my location. A notch or two above drizzle the whole fucking night. Everybody is heartbroken. 💔 the lakes better fill their asses up.
July 5Jul 5 Everyone saying "my radar app is saying that this will..." need to understand that radar app doesn't know shit. Storms do what they want. While you can say 60% chance of rain or whatever, you can't predict exactly where that rain will fall. On a side note, aside from the 10 foot rise, forecasts are a potential 10-20 more feet in Travis.
July 5Jul 5 1 minute ago, MirrOlure said: All you miserable fuckers itching your vaginas to blame someone for this need to fuck the fuck off. Read this: https://apple.news/A1LQmfIsOTVe7UjxAAIEdQA Yeah, it’s probably paywalled. So if you’re too poor to afford Apple News then I can’t help you Your article is wrong. There were forecasts (by the NWS, I believe) on Thursday indicating rain levels up to 7 inches in areas that included the Guadalupe river basin. Nobody is arguing that a lot of rain came down. That doesn't automatically exclude the possibility that critical errors by local authorities didn't also compound matters.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post I’m sorry everyone. Families near and dear to us have missing kids. I’m lashing out as some sort of subconscious defense mechanism. I’ll stop.
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