July 5Jul 5 58 minutes ago, C-Man said: I don’t think Mystic will ever reopen. I left the insurance world a few years ago just when Flood insurance was undergoing some major changes. I know one thing that changed a lot of stuff down on the Gulf coast was the redraw of Flood maps that were prompted by events that proceeded the redraws. And with that building methods had to be adjusted in order to get coverage. And then the sticker shock set in for policy holders with National Flood Insurance polices or people thinking about building. The later might be the disincentive needed to rebuild so close to the banks. Have to think this event is going to do the same in that area and along other flood prone river areas in the Hill Country.
July 5Jul 5 9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said: Can you elaborate as to who these people are? We have neighbors by that name down the street with kids ~ that age. The ones that own the CAT dealerships / Spurs and the kids / grandkids etc Edited July 5Jul 5 by Dnaguy
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post If we’re talking about systems state officials have available…just treat life-threatening floods like they react whenever a cop gets shot:Blaming the NWS is chickenshit. But the next time I see Texas state officials take responsibility for dropping the ball will be the first.
July 5Jul 5 4 hours ago, MissingInAction said: Yep. Who'd think a pacific borne system could do this here. Whens the lat time that happened? Very common actually
July 5Jul 5 2 hours ago, Captainant said: Nevermind that they all use the same sources for their radar maps, and we have been defunding weather radar systems and deactivating data sharing systems all over the place. Someone said up thread this is complete outlier, and I fear that these data points are going to be less and less the outlier as we lean harder into fucking the environment and climate Not the time and place. NWS did a fine job forecasting and warning accordingly with flash flood emergencies as the event progressed into shit. Fuck off dude, not everything is a government conspiracy.
July 5Jul 5 1 hour ago, C-Man said: I don’t think Mystic will ever reopen. Not any time soon, not at that location and not ever under existing ownership/management.
July 5Jul 5 19 hours ago, Sawbonz said: Would these have helped in this case? Honestly how much time before the wall of water was on top of them would the warning have come? Would advance warning have helped in an emergency where seconds can determine whether people live or die? In this case a "life threatening" flash flood warning issued at 1:14AM for Kerr County. If there is no cell service and you know there's no cell service the way to be weather aware is by keeping a NOAA weather radio that will receive those warnings.
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: If we’re talking about systems state officials have available…just treat life-threatening floods like they react whenever a cop gets shot: This. July 4th is a big reason. We’ll find that a lot of officials were on autopilot. Nothing will come of it. It’s the way things work now. True risk assessment and prep is hard. Yes there are mitigating factors…… but having done root cause analysis, the ultimate root cause is rarely identified correctly and it rarely rolls up to the level that it should. But we were failed by leadership and their complacently. Don’t let anyone lie to you and say otherwise.
July 5Jul 5 10 minutes ago, BrickHorn said: A lot of streets in north central Austin are half-flooded. Shoal Creek is running like a motherfucker right now. Yup. Seems to have slowed a bit:
July 5Jul 5 1 hour ago, C-Man said: I don’t think Mystic will ever reopen. 1 hour ago, South Austin said: Aside from the financial hit, it seems like there would be too many painful memories associated with it. lawsuits > bankruptcy > land sold to real estate speculator/developer....
July 5Jul 5 1 minute ago, Tonesky said: lawsuits > bankruptcy > land sold to real estate speculator/developer.... Well they are also dead so there's that.
July 5Jul 5 12 minutes ago, BrickHorn said: A lot of streets in north central Austin are half-flooded. Shoal Creek is running like a motherfucker right now. Tbf, I piss in my backyard in Crestview and Shoal Creek reaches flood stage.
July 5Jul 5 5 minutes ago, chainsaw said: Would advance warning have helped in an emergency where seconds can determine whether people live or die? In this case a "life threatening" flash flood warning issued at 1:14AM for Kerr County. If there is no cell service and you know there's no cell service the way to be weather aware is by keeping a NOAA weather radio that will receive those warnings. If you do not have a NOAA radio you are a fool.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post 4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: If we’re talking about systems state officials have available…just treat life-threatening floods like they react whenever a cop gets shot: Blaming the NWS is chickenshit. But the next time I see Texas state officials take responsibility for dropping the ball will be the first. It’s chicken shit. Their economy does have some dependence on campers and visitors. In my view, they failed them both. Camp Mystic in my view failed as they should have moved everyone to Cypress early that night hours before they actually had to evacuate all the Campers to Cypress. I think those evacuations happened after the littles had been swept away. And the camp should have known based on the cabins proximity to the river and the weather forecast and the fact the littles were closest to it that they needed to have been moved. The locals have floods all the time they say, it floods. Sure. But they were also warned and while the forecasts didn’t say the exact amount of rain it was forecasted enough that precautions should have been taken fucking period. We see that same kind of behavior of folks in hurricanes “the I ain’t leaving folks.” Unfortunately it takes a mass tragedy for them to realize that they should have warned everyone out of an abundance of caution. Those 8 year olds couldn’t protect themselves. In many ways imo the adults failed and they cannot pass it on the NWS. There is an equal mix of “it floods here all the time and they should have warned us it would have been biblical” to a total shirking of their responsibilities before the disaster occurred. I will credit them with doing everything humanly possible after multiple lives were needlessly lost. we are all upset and talking shit through. We have a right to get it out in an attempt to move forward and figure out how we won’t have a similar situation in the future, god bless anyone missing a loved one.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post I know no one wants to say it right now, but the people that own and operate the camps hold a lot of responsibility here. If you’re hosting that many children, at a site that close to a flood prone river, you should have at least one person on staff monitoring this 24/7, and a well established and trained evac plan.
July 5Jul 5 23 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said: Nueces River runs way west of San Antonio. So far it’s sitting this flood out although it would be a good thing to get some to help fill Choke Canyon and Lake Corpus Christi User name would need to be San Antonio River Rat of Cibolo Creek Rat. Usually it’s the creek that brings the worse flooding to San Antonio. Ok. So user name mostly kind of checks out. Happy?
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post 4 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said: Not the time and place. NWS did a fine job forecasting and warning accordingly with flash flood emergencies as the event progressed into shit. Fuck off dude, not everything is a government conspiracy. Who's claiming a conspiracy? Weather patterns are measurably more intense than they used to be, because of the increase of thermal energy in the system in general. It's the same oscillations as there's ever been, just getting more and more intense as our climate gets ever warmer. A couple degrees net increase in your body leads to all sorts of dysfunction and discomfort - a couple degrees net on the world is gonna do that on the scale that only mother nature can bring. As a Texan, it's pretty fucking important to be congizant of that reality. Plus, gutting our gulf weather data sources is only going to make that challenge of prediction of both timing and scale even harder thr stochastic environment known as Texas.
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said: If you do not have a NOAA radio you are a fool. Help those of us who may not be as smart and want to be smarter. Any links and advice is welcome
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, Orange&White said: I know no one wants to say it right now, but the people that own and operate the camps hold a lot of responsibility here. If you’re hosting that many children, at a site that close to a flood prone river, you should have at least one person on staff monitoring this 24/7, and a well established and trained evac plan. Are you sure that they didn’t? Or are you just talking shit.
July 5Jul 5 5 minutes ago, immamac said: Well they are also dead so there's that. I was going to say, owner died so we know it wont be the same ownership.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post 12 hours ago, jimmyjazz said: This was why I made that point earlier -- they know cell reception sucks out there. When the forecast rains are climbing, at some point it would seem prudent to have local officials go to those camps and at least warn them if not "order" them to evacuate. I understand the actual rain bomb occured very suddenly, but what's not clear is when they knew it was likely, maybe not the magnitude but at least at a magnitude that could cause potentially deadly flooding. Yes, it's hard to evacuate 100s of people (if not 1000s) in a short period of time. Have a plan. A flotilla of locals with pickup trucks -- god knows they have plenty of those -- and of course some busses. I don't know, I'm less convinced it was as much of a misfire as I imagined earlier but I have to think this could have been dealt with better. Life in the country is different. You can't take what you know about the city and translate it, it doesn't work like that. It is in the country, a big area with very few people. My ranch is in Bandera & Uvalde Counties. Bandera is the County Seat and had 829 people in 2020 (~ 35 miles away), and Uvalde is the County Seat, w/ 15,217 people in 2020 (~ 50 miles away). That is an 80+ mile stretch of roadways with no town over 1,000 people in it. It is in a box canyon, one way in and out, across two low water crossings and the creek crossing and there are no roads over the hills. The long list of people to call in an emergency? Volunteer Fire Dept, Constable, Sheriff, DPS, Game Warden, Life Flight Helicopter to SA. A "flotilla of locals with pickup trucks -- god knows they have plenty of those -- and of course some busses." I'm lucky I have 4 neighbors I can call in an Emergency, after that I'm calling the guys who drilled the water well, or put up the fence, or the A/C guy. During a flood emergency, if I have issues, so do they. If I can't get out, they can't either. And no one is driving in. You have to be prepared in advance, and self contained, for some minimal period of time. It sucks. Especially when kids are put at risk. Prayers for all that are impacted. 12 hours ago, Blotto said: There were models yesterday showing up to 7 inches of rain was possible. That alone should be enough for the camps to move campers away from low lying areas, and if they weren't aware the local authorities should have made sure they were aware. As it turns out the rainfall was quite a bit more in some areas, but that doesn't mean there wouldn't have been flooding just based on the top end of the flood watches issued 7/3. I can't help but think somewhere there was a breakdown in communication OR there was never a communication plan in place. And thats the reason for the behavior at the press conference earlier. The storms that came through Austin last month blew threw town at 50 miles an hour. This one parked in 1 place for a day. Harvey stayed in SE Texas for a week. They all came with flood warnings. I know I get pissed when I see and hear those alerts on the TV. I know I am high and dry, so quit interrupting my game, dammit! The circumstances of each storm are different, and damn near impossible to predict. To compound things, this was a Federal holiday on a Friday of a 3 day weekend, which means minimal staffing at all levels of government. Guys were drilling my water well during the Uvalde Elementary shooting. I told them to leave if they needed to. They shrugged, "... too far away, and nothing they could do." 12 hours ago, Bill Brasky said: I respectfully disagree. When a flood watch is posted in perhaps the most flash flood prone region in the country, and the most flash flood prone river within that region, then the adults need to be on 100% alert, if not take immediate precautionary moves to higher ground. Yeah they may have been lucky the last umpteen times and nothing happened but when the lucky streak runs out it will run out in a bad way. Damn near every town in the Hill Country has had a major flood in the past 50 years, because they are all along rivers. It is hard to say one place is worst than the next, probably one place that has been hit twice since then. The bolded part of your post is absolute. If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time, there is no escape. When I go to other ranches, I look up into the trees, to see how high the water has been in the past. 3 hours ago, Nueces River Rat said: These Hill Country rain events are hard to predict, especially when they involve tropical systems that come in from the south through Mexico. Some of th early models had the heaviest rains happening further south and west in the Concan/Uvalde/Leakey area. In fact I went to bed Thursday evening expecting just that to not only wake up early Friday to all the horrible news breaking just to the north of the area. This system was supposed to kick out the region yesterday and here it is today flooding areas further east this morning. Same thing with Harvey back in 2017 that was supposed to do the classic hit the coast and head toward the San Antonio area and then it curved Northeast and stalled more like an old frontal boundary and did it’s thing to the Houston area. I think the best Mets can put a forecast out there, but weather systems and patterns have a mind of their own. I've learned over the years, if I want my avatar to look like my ranch, we need a tropical storm to do it. I hate that for me to have what I want, others have to suffer. 3 hours ago, troph said: We are in Mexico so I was only tangentially following, I don’t recall 15 inches of rain forecasted but I do recall seeing rainfall could be impressive and anything above 3-4 inches can cause dangerous flooding. If that potential is in the area and you live close to a hill country river or a creek then you need to be on alert. I think it was a mix of the forecast wasn’t 100% (never is), it won’t happen to us, it’s July and weather risk is limited to heat injury only, the flooding risk materialized over night, and just plain not paying attention were the cause. I read earlier that while not unique in flash flooding, the Texas hill country has some of the highest fatality rates of flash flooding in the country. I grew up with it and have always known it can be dangerous when it rains. There is an old car along Onion Creek, by an old (probably gone) low water crossing in Del Valle, that is wrapped around a tree and folded in half like a playing card on a bicycle wheel. I probably saw it in the lates 60's, and I think about that every time it starts raining. 2 hours ago, MissingInAction said: Yep. Who'd think a pacific borne system could do this here. Whens the lat time that happened? We went to Buffalo Trails Scout Ranch in the Davis Mountains in ~ 2006. We did the back country hiking and camping program when the remnants of a tropical storm made it over us and parked for a while. The camp had a little creek running through it. When we came to camp mid week to resupply, the creek had cut the camp in half, and they couldn't let us go back out. Never thought that would have happened in the Mountains in West Texas, 2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said: That doesn’t sound like an outlier since another storm did similar within the last 10 years. It sounds like the way these things are reported on is the problem. Maybe if reporters led with “potential lake filling event” people would pa more attention. we can’t keep saying 1000 year storm events when they happen every few years. We've had a similar floods at my ranch, smaller watershed and creek, went from dry to ~ 60-80,000 gal/sec (2 swimming pools) in about 2 hours. There was minor flooding downstream, no fatalities, so it probably never happened, officially. Thunder Creek is the appropriate name for my ranch, and the valley. 2 hours ago, troph said: That’s true but if you are in a flood prone area and a rain event can flood you take it seriously…. Every time. My kids are so annoyed with how often I make them prep the porches and non-garaged cars when there is risk of hail. It’s what you do when the watches and warnings occur. Degrees of flooding are for those far away from the impact zone. Human behavior (all of us) is way to prone to think it won’t happen to me. Sorry but if you’re next to a river that massively floods once a decade and can moderately flood more often than that then you take every watch and warning seriously. There was enough - not bullseye accurate - not to the areas or the amounts - but enough to be vigilant. Problem is we humans think we are above the laws of nature not subordinate to them. It costs us everytime. This. You can't make anything fool proof, because fools are so ingenious. Human behavior. I tell every visitor, "Every thing at the ranch, plant or animal, is tougher than you are. It has survived by biting, or stinging, or scratching, or poking, or itching, or doing whatever it has to so you will go away. If I say don't run, that means don't run. If I say stay away, that means stay away. And the life flight helicopter comes from San Antonio; the GPS coordinates are on the wall." I marvel at how much better the kids behave when they leave, compared to when they got there. Y'all be safe.
July 5Jul 5 Just now, Texas Fight said: Are you sure that they didn’t? Or are you just talking shit. What do you even mean? If they had started following the news when the NWS, Austin and San Antonio Mets were calling it out multiple hours in advance, we would not be having this conversation.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post 7 minutes ago, Dnaguy said: Help those of us who may not be as smart and want to be smarter. Any links and advice is welcome These are the ones I run. Have one in the bedroom, one in the vehicle and each kid has one. I also maintain a back up in my oh shit bag. https://www.amazon.com/FosPower-Emergency-Portable-Household-Flashlight/dp/B07FKYHTWP?crid=3RNU7GG9FK5AC&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.bVTkb8bnkXJbhGqWvtAvlGwOY6HgNkqtGmvqqcqO15ME-0x6oYm9lRZKMJgIcBnTpM6l5Xl1CNkYs2SBUln1yaZe-SCQQJ2jmV5thZ-JXm2PlpirunraO4jLqcWtghMRIJQjL5MD7cjIPpQ7Uk04KpfCq1k085woxusyCWY4wU_tRQkl2VUuv_NzPft4tIe5AHxQgUoZaiBGrbaXgT8o_5DDwAnhwDneeKVJlw3YLoI.jlr5DPrOxizleBBZmY1YsZ2jiPG9cxL0JfDrOywvSZc&dib_tag=se&keywords=noaa+weather+radio&qid=1751737401&sprefix=NOAA+%2Caps%2C167&sr=8-4
July 5Jul 5 Heard from a colleague that authorities have recovered 13 bodies of missing Mystic campers. If true, not sure why that isn't out there with names held back but maybe that will come out in the next PC, which I think is scheduled for 2. Still hoping and praying for miracle for Lulu.
July 5Jul 5 6 minutes ago, PTINS said: We went to Buffalo Trails Scout Ranch in the Davis Mountains in ~ 2006. We did the back country hiking and camping program when the remnants of a tropical storm made it over us and parked for a while. The camp had a little creek running through it. When we came to camp mid week to resupply, the creek had cut the camp in half, and they couldn't let us go back out. Never thought that would have happened in the Mountains in West Texas, That place crossed my mind yesterday when the updates about the camps getting flooded started coming out, as that's where my troop went in the summer when I was a scout. Never flooded when I was there, but it's pretty crazy that they have the campsite in that deep valley and along that creek.
July 5Jul 5 19 minutes ago, Orange&White said: I know no one wants to say it right now, but the people that own and operate the camps hold a lot of responsibility here. If you’re hosting that many children, at a site that close to a flood prone river, you should have at least one person on staff monitoring this 24/7, and a well established and trained evac plan.
July 5Jul 5 17 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said: If you do not have a NOAA radio you are a fool. 14 minutes ago, Dnaguy said: Help those of us who may not be as smart and want to be smarter. Any links and advice is welcome So, firstly I'm gutted by this tragedy. But speaking as a lifetime mariner who has depended on NWS broadcasts for literal decades, I would say there are better options these days. I would certainly not tell anyone don't have a NOAA radio, I have multiple ones every time we leave the dock, but look at all the options.
July 5Jul 5 13 minutes ago, hornbri said: I was going to say, owner died so we know it wont be the same ownership. Yes it will. It’ll be his family, who’s likely already involved in Mystic management if mystic is run anything like Waldemar or really any other camp. Mystic will be sued into oblivion and cease to operate. It will come back, I think, only under new management and ownership and in a much more protected spot. The alumni group there is too large and committed. But there is zero chance that group will ever allow the current owners / management to run a camp again.
July 5Jul 5 15 minutes ago, Orange&White said: What do you even mean? If they had started following the news when the NWS, Austin and San Antonio Mets were calling it out multiple hours in advance, we would not be having this conversation. How do you know each of the camps didn’t have someone “monitoring this 24/7”? How do you know each of the camps didn’t have a “well established and trained evac plan”?
July 5Jul 5 1 hour ago, South Austin said: Aside from the financial hit, it seems like there would be too many painful memories associated with it. Just heard that next summer was to be Mystic's 100th Anniversary. 55 minutes ago, HenryJames said: San Antonio drivers have never met a flooded street that they wouldn't try to drive across. This is true. Back in HS, my best buddy tried to drive us across a low water crossing on George Road in his little VW. Halfway through the car stalled out. We were about to go out the sunroof when he got the engine to turn over and he was able to drive the rest of the way across. The log that we saw float by was actually his front grill. We were extremely lucky to not have made the news that night. Weird connection to this event is that he went to Baylor and spent multiple summers working in the kitchen at Mystic. He met and wound up marrying the equestrian instructor from there.
July 5Jul 5 Lake Travis now above 651. That's ~13.5 feet since 8 AM yesterday. And both Hamilton Creek and Big Sandy still running at almost 50K cfs.
July 5Jul 5 This is all just horrific. But quick aside: I have question for those in the area. My son just finished up a term as a counselor at Camp Longhorn. He was in one of the water cabins and they had to float their gear out on surfboards when the water started to rise on Inks. But nothing compared to Mystic obviously. He's in Marble Falls at the moment. With all the flooding in Travis and Williamson counties, we thought he might be better off heading home for the weekend (Tyler) rather than driving to Austin. What are the road conditions like and what is a safe route. Thanks in advance. Edited July 5Jul 5 by dcbc
July 5Jul 5 1 minute ago, Texas Fight said: How do you know each of the camps didn’t have someone “monitoring this 24/7”? How do you know each of the camps didn’t have a “well established and trained evac plan”? I’m actually not even sure what you are trying to argue.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post I wish we had a “crying” emoji for giving rep. I can’t help but think about how scared those little girls must have been. I hate that my mind goes there.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post Heard about an 8 year old camper at Camp Longhorn who was supposed to be picked up today as it's the final day of term. Her entire family - mom, dad, little brother, and little sister - are all missing.
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, Orange&White said: I’m actually not even sure what you are trying to argue. Which camp, that you personally know of, was not “monitoring this 24/7 and did not have an evacuation plan”? Pretty simple question unless you are just a sensationalist trying to stir the pot with shit you have no knowledge of.
July 5Jul 5 5 minutes ago, G650 said: So, firstly I'm gutted by this tragedy. But speaking as a lifetime mariner who has depended on NWS broadcasts for literal decades, I would say there are better options these days. I would certainly not tell anyone don't have a NOAA radio, I have multiple ones every time we leave the dock, but look at all the options. Absolutely. I have other gear. But for the average user, they work and for 30 bucks get one. Shit, that is a good mexican dinner. For us they are plug and play. We use them, they break, we get a new one. But we always have one ready. Redundancy.
July 5Jul 5 3 minutes ago, dcbc said: This is all just horrific. But quick aside: I have question for those in the area. My son just finished up a term as a counselor at Camp Longhorn. He was in one of the water cabins and they had to float their gear out on surfboards when the water started to rise on Inks. But nothing compared to Mystic obviously. He's in Marble Falls at the moment. With all the flooding in Travis and Williamson counties, we thought he might be better off heading home for the weekend (Tyler) rather than driving to Austin. What are the road conditions like and what is a safe route. Thanks in advance. Lot of flooding in Liberty Hill/Leander. You can use this website to check for road closures which will also help determine where the conditions are deteriorated in general. https://atxfloods.com/ I drove down to South Austin and back to the Cedar Park area earlier today and aside from rain bands, the roads were fine. I was entirely on major roads of course.
July 5Jul 5 5 minutes ago, dcbc said: Quick question for those in the area. My son just finished up a term as a counselor at Camp Longhorn. He was in one of the water cabins and they had to float their gear out on surfboards when the water started to rise on Inks. He's in Marble Falls at the moment. With all the flooding in Travis and Williamson counties, we thought he might be better off heading home for the weekend (Tyler) rather than driving to Austin. What are the road conditions like and what is a safe route. Thanks in advance. Keep this link handy: https://drivetexas.org/
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post Just now, Texas Fight said: Which camp, that you personally know of, was not “monitoring this 24/7 and did not have an evacuation plan”? Pretty simple question unless you are just a sensationalist trying to stir the pot with shit you have no knowledge of. I'd say we have pretty strong evidence that it wasn't being monitored and didn't have a strong evacuation plan. Why are you even arguing this?
July 5Jul 5 25 minutes ago, Orange&White said: I know no one wants to say it right now, but the people that own and operate the camps hold a lot of responsibility here. If you’re hosting that many children, at a site that close to a flood prone river, you should have at least one person on staff monitoring this 24/7, and a well established and trained evac plan. I said it earlier in the thread that there is no excuse for having as bad cell service as they do where all these camps are located. I don’t know who it is that fixes that but it always made me super nervous when my kids were going.
July 5Jul 5 1 minute ago, Texas Fight said: Which camp, that you personally know of, was not “monitoring this 24/7 and did not have an evacuation plan”? Pretty simple question unless you are just a sensationalist trying to stir the pot with shit you have no knowledge of. How hard is this? If they had someone monitoring the situation properly and an evac plan and thus is the outcome, you could then only pin it on negligence.
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said: I'd say we have pretty strong evidence that it wasn't being monitored and didn't have a strong evacuation plan. Why are you even arguing this? So, you don’t know?
July 5Jul 5 4 minutes ago, Foosters said: Heard about an 8 year old camper at Camp Longhorn who was supposed to be picked up today as it's the final day of term. Her entire family - mom, dad, little brother, and little sister - are all missing. Yes. My sister-in-law knows their cousin. Her grandmother is picking her up from camp and has to bear that awful news. They were camping and their camper/vehicle was swept away in the floods.
July 5Jul 5 Just now, Orange&White said: How hard is this? If they had someone monitoring the situation properly and an evac plan and thus is the outcome, you could then only pin it on negligence. Not true.
July 5Jul 5 Has there been a single repot about anyone being rescued or found today? I haven’t seen anything since the girl was found in a tree 12 miles downriver
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