July 5Jul 5 1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said: Oh good. Kristi Noem is about to speak. She surely has new, detailed information to offer. Just put the locals on and stop with this performative grandstanding by state and federal officials. Where are you seeing this?
July 5Jul 5 I've had my ranch 20 years. ATT & Verizon are the only carriers that have service there. All it takes is one lost tower to lose service.I have used the emergency satellite texts a few times now on ATT when I was out of tower service range. Makes me feel better about those solo trips to wilderness areas.
July 5Jul 5 Bettie Cross thinks people just need to get insurance adjusters out there. Uh, a whole lot of rural folks self insure. Beyond that, I would be surprised if typical homeowners insurance would cover an event like this. @C-Man can weigh in there. Federal flood insurance is insanely expensive now. I don't think insurance is gonna make much of a dent.
July 5Jul 5 Where are you seeing this?Local CBS just showed Noem sitting in the lead position with governor and senator cornyn to her left. Emergency director on her right.
July 5Jul 5 1 minute ago, CTC2 said: Where are you seeing this? This feed has been occasionally showing the room without audio, as the official PC hasnt started yet
July 5Jul 5 Checking hydromet and others for confirmation, but there appear to be parts of the Hill Country where there has been continuous, nonstop rainfall since 2:30pm on July 3rd. And it’s still raining. Unbelievable.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post 51 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said: A post from a friend… This is a tragedy beyond tragedy's. Violent storms on the evening of 7/3 flooded the Guadalupe River which Camp Mystic rests on. The damn broke and all the younger girl cabins down on the "Flats" as they call it were basically submerged. From my daughter Tiny, "Water rose up to the door mom. The only way out was to break the back window and climb out. It was am and I couldn't find my shoes. I was so scared but I kept going. I had my retainers in but didn't want to lose them, so l put them in the pocket of my pajamas. We climbed through the window and headed up the hill. The rocks really hurt my feet and I was so cold and shivering. We got to the top of the mountain and our counselor Annabelle was with us and was so awesome. She kept us safe under a tree. We huddled shivering and singing songs in the dark. Mom I thought I was going to die I was so scared. The thunder and lightening was so loud. Once it got lighter out we made our way back down to the Cypress side of camp and then Annabelle through us over the river and we ran into the dining hall of Cypress where we sat in the dark. They found me some dry clothes. We all just sat there waiting and waiting for hours. Then we were told we were getting on helicopters. Mom I didn't know if I would see you again." I work at this girl’s school. Very sweet kid and family. What an ordeal to go through. And they’re some of the lucky ones…
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, troph said: I 100% disagree. That close to the river literally feet away I would be up all night ANY time it rains. You leave your kids with me I go to 11 on vigilance. Sleep overs, car rides, trips, you name it. I get some of you grieve with sadness, some of us think at least the tragedy with these little girls was at least to some extent avoidable. if I had those kids I would have been up at 1am - because I’m always up for weather events. The lack of vigilance pisses me off. I’m so sad but I’m also pissed beyond belief at adults who were entrusted with these kids. This. I went through multiple events in Houston. I had weather radar on constantly and was physically checking things around the house every hour. I was lucky and had no flooding during the worst, but I was hyper vigilant.
July 5Jul 5 I don’t know why, but the retainers line got me. The idea that a kid fleeing for her life would think about her responsibilities, probably worried that losing a couple hundred dollars worth of plastic would upset her parents. It’s just… holy shit.Yep. So many emotions.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post We have land in the area so I’m getting family updates. . I have been in and around cow creek all my life and never seen anything like this: IMG_2938.mov The bridge over it on Singleton The 1431 crossing completely gone.
July 5Jul 5 10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said: Bettie Cross thinks people just need to get insurance adjusters out there. Uh, a whole lot of rural folks self insure. Beyond that, I would be surprised if typical homeowners insurance would cover an event like this. @C-Man can weigh in there. Federal flood insurance is insanely expensive now. I don't think insurance is gonna make much of a dent. Unless you have a separate flood policy, you're out of luck in situations like this. Depending on where the property is and official flood zone it is in, a lender can require flood insurance is bought. Typical flood policies cover up to $250K for the structure and $100K for contents. They're not designed to help all that much when the home is a total loss because it washes down the river and is smashed to pieces. You can buy supplemental flood, or some policies will cover the whole house, but those are few and far between. Edited July 5Jul 5 by C-Man
July 5Jul 5 2 hours ago, chainsaw said: In this case a "life threatening" flash flood warning issued at 1:14AM for Kerr County I didn’t know about this. From what I’m hearing from my daughter the cabins were filling w water at 2 so in that case there was time. Just terrible 2 hours ago, Texas Fight said: Are you sure that they didn’t? Or are you just talking shit. 1 hour ago, Texas Fight said: How do you know each of the camps didn’t have someone “monitoring this 24/7”? How do you know each of the camps didn’t have a “well established and trained evac plan”? Some of us know campers and counselors at Mystic, so, yeah
July 5Jul 5 3 minutes ago, C-Man said: Unless you have a separate flood policy, you're out of luck in situations like this. Depending on where the property is, a lender will require flood insurance is bought. Typical flood policies cover up to $250K for the structure and $100K for contents. They're not designed to help all that much when the home is a total loss because it washes down the river and is smashed to pieces. You can buy supplemental flood, or some policies will cover the whole house, but those are few and far between. when you say "few and far between", do you mean very few people can afford them or do you mean very few companies even offer them so you may not be able to find one even if you can afford one in a high risk areas?
July 5Jul 5 Just now, Sawbonz said: I didn’t know about this. From what I’m hearing from my daughter the cabins were filling w water at 2 so in that case there was time. Just terrible Some of us know campers and counselors at Mystic, so, yeah In fairness, the specific "flash flood" warning from 1:14AM didn't use the magic words "Guadalupe River" but it did say "creeks and streams" nor did the warning say anything about how much the river could rise or how fast it would do so. It still could have prompted some vigilance from the leadership of the campsite and when they could hear debris getting louder that should have been enough warning to get to higher ground.
July 5Jul 5 5 minutes ago, Blotto said: when you say "few and far between", do you mean very few people can afford them or do you mean very few companies even offer them so you may not be able to find one even if you can afford one in a high risk areas? Not many companies offer flood coverage up to policy limits. It's mainly the HNW carriers such as Chubb, PURE, etc. You can sometimes buy excess flood (like an umbrella) that sits above the standard 250/100 flood policy that the NFIP offers, either thru a HNW carrier or a wholesale/surplus lines avenue. The thinking was you could have a foot of water on the bottom floor of a home but once the water recedes you can clean shit up, replace flooring and whatever was damaged. In instances like this, or New Orleans in Katrina, the whole home is destroyed. (Hurricanes are probably a bad example because then you get into arguments over whether the primary damage was the force of the wind or the rising water.) Oh, and flood insurance can be very expensive depending on where it's located in the flood maps. If you're not a primary flood zone, they're pretty cheap $500 or so annually. I won't tell anybody they don't need a flood policy any more. There ain't a place on Earth that can't flood given certain situations. Edited July 5Jul 5 by C-Man
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, Message Board User said: I keep telling the bums that no more than 3 can piss at the same time or this is what will happen.
July 5Jul 5 4 minutes ago, Message Board User said: Time for the bi-annual Shoal Creek Saloon hose down?
July 5Jul 5 If you're lowlying, beware floods. If you're not lowlying, beware mudslides. When it ain't raining, beware wildfires.
July 5Jul 5 7 minutes ago, chainsaw said: In fairness, the specific "flash flood" warning from 1:14AM didn't use the magic words "Guadalupe River" but it did say "creeks and streams" nor did the warning say anything about how much the river could rise or how fast it would do so. It still could have prompted some vigilance from the leadership of the campsite and when they could hear debris getting louder that should have been enough warning to get to higher ground. The Hunt location was a word to the wise. Responsible leadership and effective communication might have saved lives, but we will never know.
July 5Jul 5 Popular Post My drone flyover of the flood waters and debris field moving into Canyon Lake right now... DJI_0067.mov
July 5Jul 5 2 minutes ago, Cajun said: My drone flyover of the flood waters and debris field moving into Canyon Lake right now... DJI_0067.mov Rename files to .mp4 before you post and it'll embed for everyone.
July 5Jul 5 Just now, Willfully Horn said: The Hunt location was a word to the wise. Responsible leadership and effective communication might have saved lives, but we will never know. I agree entirely. The thing is, I also understand that flash flood warnings are so common that most people ignore them or if the warnings aren't ignored people assume "I'm not going to be on the road so I'll be fine" which is true for most people but that logic falls apart if you're responsible for a cabin full of small children sleeping near a riverbed. No matter how you look at it, there are inexcusable failures to abide the Boy Scouts motto.
July 5Jul 5 Just now, immamac said: Rename files to .mp4 before you post and it'll embed for everyone. Gotcha. Thanks
July 5Jul 5 9 minutes ago, Rip76 said: Damn https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1Lbj8XETSz/?mibextid=wwXIfr Holy shit
July 5Jul 5 3 minutes ago, chainsaw said: I agree entirely. The thing is, I also understand that flash flood warnings are so common that most people ignore them or if the warnings aren't ignored people assume "I'm not going to be on the road so I'll be fine" which is true for most people but that logic falls apart if you're responsible for a cabin full of small children sleeping near a riverbed. No matter how you look at it, there are inexcusable failures to abide the Boy Scouts motto. Watched a documentary about the big tornado in Missouri a number of years ago and everyone pretty much said this same thing. That the warnings happen all the time and folks just don’t listen to them.
July 5Jul 5 1 hour ago, King George said: Here is how close cabins were to dam: EDIT; OTHER POSTS INDICATE THIS MAY NOT BE CAMP MYSTIC. I RELIED ON GOOGLE EARTH 100% FOR MY POST, AND IT MAY BE IN ERROR. I HAVE NO OTHER FACTUAL INFORMATION TO PROVE OR DISPROVE MY ORIGINAL POST. I WILL KEEP THE ORIGINAL POST AS IS. These renderings are 100% my opinion from looking at Google Earth, and any comments, markings or observations are mine alone and are not meant to be taken as factual or further relied on for any purpose other than to facilitate this discussion. A Google Earth screen shot of Camp Mystic. The 2 cabins shown (Light Blue) are closest to the water, presumably the younger girls cabins. Note the water appears to be Cypress Creek (Orange), which flows into the South Fork of the Guadalupe (Dark Blue) downstream of Camp Mystic. The "dam" is shown in red. I would use that word "dam" loosely, as it is most likely a "non-engineered structure" meant to impound water for purely recreational services and not flood control. A wider view that shows Cypress Creek & the South Fork of the Guadalupe. The yellow/red lines are dams or earthen berms that have been constructed long the water ways. The shaded area is a 30 second best guess (not a topographic analysis) on what the Cypress Creek water shed might look like, meaning any rainfall within that polygon would make it down to the shores of Camp Mystic. Be aware that a failure of 1 upstream dam could cause a cascade of failing damns downstream as they are not meant to get hit with a surge in water, but rather a slow filling of the bathtub. It is also possible that the waters in the Guadalupe River backed up into the South Fork of the Guadalupe River, which backed up into Cypress Creek and raised the water level from the back (downstream) side. Edited July 5Jul 5 by PTINS new info
July 5Jul 5 Still waiting for this damn presser. I keep thinking if they can find Katherine Feruzzo (I think it’s how to spell her name) that counselor who is missing that they may find some of the little ones with her. I mean shit I have no idea how far you can get swept down river and still survive but I keep hearing also there is reason to have some hope amidst this unfathomable tragedy.
July 5Jul 5 3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said: Watched a documentary about the big tornado in Missouri a number of years ago and everyone pretty much said this same thing. That the warnings happen all the time and folks just don’t listen to them. In fairness, most tornado safety precautions won't make a shit against a direct hit EF5 unless you have a very well constructed basement.
July 5Jul 5 4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said: Still waiting for this damn presser. I wouldn’t expect to learn much from these grandstanding gasbags.
July 5Jul 5 Just now, BrickHorn said: I wouldn’t expect to learn much from these grandstanding gasbags. This is going to be pure damage control.
July 5Jul 5 4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said: Still waiting for this damn presser. I keep thinking if they can find Katherine Feruzzo (I think it’s how to spell her name) that counselor who is missing that they may find some of the little ones with her. I mean shit I have no idea how far you can get swept down river and still survive but I keep hearing also there is reason to have some hope amidst this unfathomable tragedy. I have seen several references to a woman that was found 12 miles downstream, which seems inconceivable to me. That would be an insane amount of time in some dangerous water Quote A young woman was dramatically rescued after she was carried 12 miles down the Guadalupe River by raging flood waters, and later pictured clinging to branches of a tree. The woman – who has not been identified publicly – was rescued, News 4 San Antonio reported.
July 5Jul 5 18 minutes ago, chainsaw said: If you're lowlying, beware floods. If you're not lowlying, beware mudslides. When it ain't raining, beware wildfires. i need to find a place to live where i am not constantly having to beware.
July 5Jul 5 5 minutes ago, Nicole44 said: Still waiting for this damn presser. I keep thinking if they can find Katherine Feruzzo (I think it’s how to spell her name) that counselor who is missing that they may find some of the little ones with her. I mean shit I have no idea how far you can get swept down river and still survive but I keep hearing also there is reason to have some hope amidst this unfathomable tragedy. Suspect the bad news is rolling in and they are trying to notify and prepare for such. Hope not.
July 5Jul 5 I hadn’t seen this before and I obviously cannot confirm it but it does track with some things i have heard. Edited July 5Jul 5 by Nicole44
July 5Jul 5 7 minutes ago, PTINS said: These renderings are 100% my opinion from looking at Google Earth, and any comments, markings or observations are mine alone and are not meant to be taken as factual or further relied on for any purpose other than to facilitate this discussion. A Google Earth screen shot of Camp Mystic. The 2 cabins shown (Light Blue) are closest to the water, presumably the younger girls cabins. Note the water appears to be Cypress Creek (Orange), which flows into the South Fork of the Guadalupe (Dark Blue) downstream of Camp Mystic. The "dam" is shown in red. I would use that word "dam" loosely, as it is most likely a "non-engineered structure" meant to impound water for purely recreational services and not flood control. A wider view that shows Cypress Creek & the South Fork of the Guadalupe. The yellow/red lines are dams or earthen berms that have been constructed long the water ways. The shaded area is a 30 second best guess (not a topographic analysis) on what the Cypress Creek water shed might look like, meaning any rainfall within that polygon would make it down to the shores of Camp Mystic. Be aware that a failure of 1 upstream dam could cause a cascade of failing damns downstream as they are not meant to get hit with a surge in water, but rather a slow filling of the bathtub. It is also possible that the waters in the Guadalupe River backed up into the South Fork of the Guadalupe River, which backed up into Cypress Creek and raised the water level from the back (downstream) side. The cabins in the picture he posted did not flood. They stayed dry. It’s a very misleading post.
July 5Jul 5 1 minute ago, yoladu said: i need to find a place to live where i am not constantly having to beware. I can't really think of one.
July 5Jul 5 The only reason I am tuning in is to find out how many have been found safe, how many have been sadly recovered and what the count is. And if there is ANY fricking hope to have that we could have a miracle. I don’t want to hear them expand on shit they have already said, it’s fine Abbott wants to mention the counties he is adding to the declaration but like all we want to know is who has been found or how many damnit.
July 5Jul 5 Just now, Nicole44 said: The only reason I am tuning in is to find out how many have been found safe, how many have been sadly recovered and what the count is. And if there is ANY fricking hope to have that we could have a miracle. I don’t want to hear them expand on shit they have already said, it’s fine Abbott wants to mention the counties he is adding to the declaration but like all we want to know is who has been found or how many damnit. Thanks for taking one for the team. I can’t watch these assholes without becoming angry. I appreciate you posting the updates.
July 5Jul 5 9 minutes ago, BrickHorn said: I wouldn’t expect to learn much from these grandstanding gasbags. Maybe some thoughts and prayers
July 5Jul 5 They're going to send in more fixed-wing aircraft along with helicopters to help find victims. Might have done that yesterday you feckless hacks.
July 5Jul 5 50 minutes ago, 4th&Five said: CBS dude just said Buchanan could be full after this. Thanks fucking amazing. From one storm that wasn't even in the forecast.
July 5Jul 5 They're going to send in more fixed-wing aircraft along with helicopters to help find victims. Might have done that yesterday you feckless hacks. A C-152 flying around with full flaps? An army of 4k drones was the best way to do this. Doesn't matter, story's over. It'll be weeks to months to find the missing bodies now.
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