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18 minutes ago, utee94 said:

But, there's still quite a bit of rain out there. It would be great to see LT hit 660 or even greater, as a result of all of this.  It's gone up 1/10th just in the time we've been discussing it this morning.

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1/10th  huh???

 

Edited by LTtxfan

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19 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Streamflows in the 2K-5K range tend to move the lake by inches.  It takes streamflows in the 20K+ range like we saw on Saturday, to move it by multiple feet, especially the closer we get to 680.  It has substantially tapered off since its peak 2 days ago despite some heavy rains yesterday.

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But, there's still quite a bit of rain out there. It would be great to see LT hit 660 or even greater, as a result of all of this.  It's gone up 1/10th just in the time we've been discussing it this morning.

 

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1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Streamflows in the 2K-5K range tend to move the lake by inches.  It takes streamflows in the 20K+ range like we saw on Saturday, to move it by multiple feet, especially the closer we get to 680.  It has substantially tapered off since its peak 2 days ago despite some heavy rains yesterday.

image.png.4cf889cc1a451a592d91cb42280f80d2.png

But, there's still quite a bit of rain out there. It would be great to see LT hit 660 or even greater, as a result of all of this.  It's gone up 1/10th just in the time we've been discussing it this morning.

 

Anything like this worth opening any floodgates at LBJ?  (I don't know what the threshold is for them to make the call)

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2 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Anything like this worth opening any floodgates at LBJ?  (I don't know what the threshold is for them to make the call)

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Yeah I suspect that will be enough to get them to open up floodgate operations at Wirtz.

Edited by utee94

I see that Travis/Williamson counties are under a flood watch through 7 pm. What is the likelihood those of us further north (think Cedar Park, Roundrock and Georgetown) could get slammed with a couple of inches of rain this afternoon? 

Edited by Nicole44

8 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

San Saba and Llano rivers

Yep. The last few frames on my weather app suggest that most of the energy is heading SxSW toward Junction and Menard.

4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yep. The last few frames on my weather app suggest that most of the energy is heading SxSW toward Junction and Menard.

That blob has mostly parked around that general area all day long.

50 minutes ago, texasdago said:

That blob has mostly parked around that general area all day long.

C'mon c'mon... nice and easy rain into the rivers... just keep it flowing to the lakes without getting out of control.

Rain since midnight...

image.thumb.png.51fe199319fbcd427f7a6734a5c0e556.png

Edited by texasdago

San Saba and Llano rivers

Yep. Look at all the LCRA rates the last hour for the SS river at menard and Brady. Sigh
4 hours ago, Deej said:

The number of Blue Alerts is miniscule to the number of Amber Alerts in the middle of the night. I'm not getting out of bed to look outside to see if that kid from the Panhandle has somehow made it to my neighborhood in Austin. 

 It’s the Amber and Silver alerts (that’s for the Senior Citizen that goes missing) are becoming too much of a routine thing and finally folks discovered how to turn the audible off on their IPhone and Androids.  The whole concept of the EBS/EAS was created for local emergencies which put lives in immediate danger or national crisis such as nuclear war as was the fear in the early 60’s when it was created.  And of course back then the only forms of media we had was radio and TV to broadcast the warnings.  I’d honestly like to know how many children or missing elderly folks have been located directly tied to those alerts.   Or was it general media coverage that now gets passed down the line by social media and good police work?

 

 

I cannot remember any tropical system that parked itself in the same place for so long. Not even Harvey.

2 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

I’d honestly like to know how many children or missing elderly folks have been located directly tied to those alerts.

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Yep. The last few frames on my weather app suggest that most of the energy is heading SxSW toward Junction and Menard.

I pulling for it to make it Camp Wood, Barksdale, and west of Uvalde.   The Nueces River could use the water,   So close to but has sat out during this event.  

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I cannot remember any tropical system that parked itself in the same place for so long. Not even Harvey.

Hurricane Beulah.   Before many of us were born, but it’s legend and the standard down in the RGV and the Coastal Bend for that matter.  This is the rain event my parents and other old timers reference when it comes to floods and hurricanes for that matter down there  

https://www.weather.gov/crp/Beulah

It slowly went inland and stalled much like Harvey and then drifted around for five days giving many of the cities in the region rainfall records that haven’t been broken since then.  Some areas got over 30 inches of rain and this was on top of a fairly wet August in the region.  

21 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I cannot remember any tropical system that parked itself in the same place for so long. Not even Harvey.

Harvey lasted for 6 fucking days. Tonight at midnight or so will be the end of day 4. 

Dago beat me to Allison. 

Edited by SydneyCarton

I'm remembering Harvey differently then. I thought it had hit the Corpus area then pushed back out into the Gulf where it parked itself for about three days. Houston saw rain for longer than those three days of course but I don't think it was parked the whole time

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm remembering Harvey differently then. I thought it had hit the Corpus area then pushed back out into the Gulf where it parked itself for about three days. Houston saw rain for longer than those three days of course but I don't think it was parked the whole time

It hit  the Rockport/Port A  areas and then headed towards  San Antonio. But a stalled frontal boundary  around Gonzales got involved and pushed it back towards the east and then back over the Gulf where it moved at very slow pace  along that boundary with the moisture shield being on the north side which gave the Houston area the massive rains.   

https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey

 

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm remembering Harvey differently then. I thought it had hit the Corpus area then pushed back out into the Gulf where it parked itself for about three days. Houston saw rain for longer than those three days of course but I don't think it was parked the whole time

Harvey hit Rockport, stuck around for 2 days, hit the gulf, then hit Houston and stuck around for another 4 or so days. And I don't mean tangentially, I mean the center was over Houston for damn near 4 days.  And then it went on to make like another landfall in LA after rolling back out of Houston. 

And another thing to consider is your talking about a storm "parking itself in one place,' but the one in central Texas is a relatively small storm to a hurricane that was like 1/3 of the size of Texas. What the fuck defines "one place?" You're trying to compare a relatively small storm cell to something that had a sustained EYE and was bigger than most US states.  

58 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm remembering Harvey differently then. I thought it had hit the Corpus area then pushed back out into the Gulf where it parked itself for about three days. Houston saw rain for longer than those three days of course but I don't think it was parked the whole time

I watched that track every single day, all day.  That storm JUST WOULD NOT LEAVE.  It was brutal.  

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3 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

What exactly is bullshit about that? 

Hurts his fee fees

Climate journalism is fake news.

Seriously, anything that challenges their chosen narrative, no matter how factual, needs to be removed from their view because they are the biggest snowflakes the planet has ever seen.
7 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Facts

Scared Saturday Night Live GIF by HULU

25 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Take it to the cloak room jabroni. Keep this bullshit out of here.

what the fuck? Flooding and hurricanes affects us all - it's not political. What the fuck is wrong with some of you? We shouldn't be cheering on the woodchipping of our emergency infrastructure.

 

Fecklessly attempting to shout down factual reporting is fucking political. It's a goddamn weather man! 

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Final Monday Update  - The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend - Or "Good News"
Okay, a good day and promising tomorrow. So I'll use bullets to fancy it up.

  • Today as you've noticed has been a relatively rain free day. After the morning complex died out things settled down. That complex as it is was farther away from us, more in the San Angelo area, so the entire ATX region has had a relatively dry day. Largely because clouds have prevented a lot of sun heating/bubbling up. Still very possible for us, but nothing of overconcern.
  • What activity there has been mostly has been east of I-35, in places that could use it. I don't think the Drought Monitor Map coming out on Thursday will be anything but sweet.
  • Some breaks in the clouds this p.m. 'round here will still enhance the possibility of late-afternoon forming storms, but any should be short/small in scope.
  • Tonight quiets down.
  • Then the Enemy of My Enemy finally(!!!) starts to push this damn thing out. An inverted trough coming in from the coast has trying for the better part of 2 days to push this thing out but it just hasn't had the pop. Our system will finally weaken enough to allow itself to be bumped. So this coastal trough will come in, bump our system, and bounce to the SW like gigantic pool balls in slow motion. That should be enough to get the stuck system unstuck.
  • But this is a low pressure trough, so tomorrow will still include the possibility of rain. But think along the lines more of coastal showers or a mild low than this thing sitting over us the past 4 days. So although it's a low (the enemy), it's gonna help get rid of our low (the enemy) and be our friend.
  • I do think Tuesday will be a lot like today - much less rain cover, although chances for a small but intense shower is there. Then Wed. will be almost July-llike - much more sun and temps going up, drier.

I think I'll be back tomorrow one last time, at least it looks good for that. Not tonight unless something really surprisingly goes awry. Late.

This system needs to fuck off into east Texas where the ground is capable of absorbing it

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

This system needs to fuck off into east Texas where the ground is capable of absorbing it

A lot needs to fuck off in east Texas 

Buchanan just hit 1011.53 so it's officially over 9' up, and Travis hit 657.6 so it's now an official 20' up, since 8 AM on 7/4.

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

This system needs to fuck off into east Texas where the ground is capable of absorbing it

Is the ground in east Texas ever dry? How about west Texas?

27 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Buchanan just hit 1011.53 so it's officially over 9' up, and Travis hit 657.6 so it's now an official 20' up, since 8 AM on 7/4.

Is that good?

4 hours ago, texasdago said:

C'mon c'mon... nice and easy rain into the rivers... just keep it flowing to the lakes without getting out of control.

Rain since midnight...

image.thumb.png.51fe199319fbcd427f7a6734a5c0e556.png

What is the website plz?  Interesting map/data

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

what the fuck? Flooding and hurricanes affects us all - it's not political. What the fuck is wrong with some of you? We shouldn't be cheering on the woodchipping of our emergency infrastructure.

 

Fecklessly attempting to shout down factual reporting is fucking political. It's a goddamn weather man! 

Dude, look who you're responding to.  DT Snowflake #1.

Buddy on ig just posted this. Anyone have an answer for him? 

@phdhorn?

This is referencing the greenbelt that runs through Austin. 

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Lake Travis rose 20'.  It's still 23' low of its conservation pool.
 

Flood gates are not even part of that equation.  The reservoir did its job, even if it was starting from an incredibly low point.

and yes, the rains hit on almost exactly the worst part of an extreme drought on the Edwards Plateau/ Hill Country.

image.png.b266aa259b9eefb57614ef7ec1c0ee80.png

Edited by Iceman

17 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Lake Travis rose 20'.  It's still 23' low of its conservation pool.
 

Flood gates are not even part of that equation.  The reservoir did its job, even if it was starting from an incredibly low point.

and yes, the rains hit on almost exactly the worst part of an extreme drought on the Edwards Plateau/ Hill Country.

image.png.b266aa259b9eefb57614ef7ec1c0ee80.png

Correct me if I'm wrong but that's not even the current drought monitor

4 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but that's not even the current drought monitor

It is through July 1, released July 3rd just before the rains.  It will update Thursday.

Edited by Iceman

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