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  • BlackCat
    BlackCat

    I got my boy out from La Junta. As far as I can tell the whole camp got to high ground well in advance of the bad stuff and watched the camp get obliterated. My son is 8 and they took the younger kids

  • HOOKEM4
    HOOKEM4

    We are talking about CR because we have a bunch of bitch ass snowflakes that are offended by reality. The fact they cant see the reality is the problem. Also cry less pussies.  Kids died and we h

  • phdhorn
    phdhorn

    I'm heartbroken by this event, like many here not one of us 4 in my family doesn't know someone at most 2 Kevin Bacon steps from ourselves who is dealing with loss of human life. So much I could

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Of Note:
As you've probably heard, today a slow-moving front (unusual for July) is teaming with Gulf moisture to form a slow-moving line of heavy rain from NW→SE. Right now northern Hill Country is getting hammered - some parts of San Saba/Lampasas Cos. have gotten over 6" of rain since midnight. This is all moving SE and unfortunately should affect the Kerr/Upper Guadalupe area later this morning/early afternoon. I don't think any floods will be huge/catastrophic (can it be anyway after last week? How much more is "catastrophic?"), but could cause evacs and issues.

ATX will also get a good amount of rain out of this it looks like - easily 2" upward and more in some spots until this passes through. Very possible that main streams/creeks (Shoal? Onion?) and low-lying areas could see some flash and/or minor flooding. Be alert today. NWS has had flood watches posted since early Sat. a.m. for this, now a series of flash flood warnings for upper Hill Country, will almost certainly be extended this way (unfortunately) if rain keeps up. It could lessen by the time it hits over ATX but with all the moisture in our ground/air I don't think so.

I haven't had time to look at the weather background, but this is a July reminiscent of 2007. The big summer highs have stayed away - it's possible the huge tropical situation we've had the last 2 weeks has and will impact our weather more this summer. The mid-upper air patterns aren't typical for us, but why/how long, if I look through it I might get a better idea. Like I said, although this front is "cool" (i.e. not changing temps much) it's still a front in July, so that's not usual. Two-week outlook calls for rain to stop and July to come back (hot dry) but that was supposed to happen now - and well, it's not at least this weekend, another "slight" rain forecast expanding to "heavy rain". But it happens.

Meantime, heed warnings, watches.

5 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Of Note:
As you've probably heard, today a slow-moving front (unusual for July) is teaming with Gulf moisture to form a slow-moving line of heavy rain from NW→SE. Right now northern Hill Country is getting hammered - some parts of San Saba/Lampasas Cos. have gotten over 6" of rain since midnight. This is all moving SE and unfortunately should affect the Kerr/Upper Guadalupe area later this morning/early afternoon. I don't think any floods will be huge/catastrophic (can it be anyway after last week? How much more is "catastrophic?"), but could cause evacs and issues.

ATX will also get a good amount of rain out of this it looks like - easily 2" upward and more in some spots until this passes through. Very possible that main streams/creeks (Shoal? Onion?) and low-lying areas could see some flash and/or minor flooding. Be alert today. NWS has had flood watches posted since early Sat. a.m. for this, now a series of flash flood warnings for upper Hill Country, will almost certainly be extended this way (unfortunately) if rain keeps up. It could lessen by the time it hits over ATX but with all the moisture in our ground/air I don't think so.

I haven't had time to look at the weather background, but this is a July reminiscent of 2007. The big summer highs have stayed away - it's possible the huge tropical situation we've had the last 2 weeks has and will impact our weather more this summer. The mid-upper air patterns aren't typical for us, but why/how long, if I look through it I might get a better idea. Like I said, although this front is "cool" (i.e. not changing temps much) it's still a front in July, so that's not usual. Two-week outlook calls for rain to stop and July to come back (hot dry) but that was supposed to happen now - and well, it's not at least this weekend, another "slight" rain forecast expanding to "heavy rain". But it happens.

Meantime, heed warnings, watches.

I've had that same thought several times. But I don't remember flooding that summer, just constant rain. 

Yeah Lampasas got a whole bunch of rain. It flooded Sulphur Creek and the annual Spring Ho festival. They put a bunch of booths at the park and I saw some pictures of the water. Probably damaged a lot of stuff for vendors that left their things out overnight. 

The last time I remember Lampasas getting rain like this I was maybe 10 or so and the road by our house on CR1020 that took us into town went from a small creek to a river-sized body of water that was about 150 yards across at least. Never forget seeing all that water go up so quickly.

30 minutes ago, hornian said:

I've had that same thought several times. But I don't remember flooding that summer, just constant rain. 

That was the year of the rain bomb around Marble Falls - June 27 (19"). There was significant flooding, but the only reason why it wasn't worse is that it was so close to the lake the flooded area was a relatively short distance. I think I had about 7" out of that system in W. Travis.

But yeah, it also was just a rainy summer, I believe 100° temps were never achieved - or very few of them. In fact I don't think it got above 90° until July. Something like that.

Called my mom to see how they were doing. They never get flooded where she lives because the house is on the high ground just outside of Lampasas on CR 1020. However, she did say that the electricity has been out since 2:30 this morning. Pedernales is usually faster about getting it restored so they must be having some bigger issues right now. I’m honestly surprised Lampasas doesn’t have more flood issues since the town is bowl shaped. That it has been almost 70 years since the big flood in 1957 seems like they are overdue for a big one.

20 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

IMG_3903.thumb.jpeg.e0f3e92224cc0fc42cc69404a80ff372.jpegIMG_3902.thumb.jpeg.5fbccb5b8f9ef3982139c8218612973a.jpegIMG_3901.thumb.jpeg.935b8e1a2fe407d4b934eb95577022a6.jpeg

Pics of Spring Ho’s not showing up.

Just now, Jiggy-Z said:

Pics of Spring Ho’s not showing up.

They’re all floating downstream right now. 

1 hour ago, UpperWestside said:

They’re all floating downstream right now. 

WAY too soon.

1 hour ago, UpperWestside said:

They’re all floating downstream right now. 

What about the Summer Hos?

LCRA has dropped Lake LBJ over 1.5' in the last 12 hours. That's more than they dropped it on the 4th. Wonder if they are planning on starting to release water from Buchanan.

10 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Rain, imo.

Agreed - the Llano is flooding again, and I suspect they don't want a repeat of getting behind the inflows.

Update:
Well at least this thing has a shape - and it's a pretty common "frontal curve" line. It's moving through the immediate ATX area now. Behind it the rain is lighter and not as intense, though it's a big blob of it, but it's more moderate. Point: I think most of the worst of the rain will soon pass then light/moderate rain up through dinner.

If stuff regenerates behind it and causes further potential consequences I'll be back. Otherwise I think this is the worst of the day (fingers crossed) as this frontal thing s-l-o-w-l-y creeps through our region.

If it's any consolation, rain has ended in the Upper Guadalupe Valley - looks like for a good while if not for good with this. I'll be back if not.

just hearing thunder after thunder near 183 and Ohlen for the last 15 mins. 

some wet stuff... but it sounds hyper ominous. 

28 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Agreed - the Llano is flooding again, and I suspect they don't want a repeat of getting behind the inflows.

Yeah, they took a lot of flack last week for waiting to long to lower LBJ. I think (hope?) they are being over cautious this week. 

Bottom just dropped out in the Tomball area off of 99.

Heavy rain for almost an hour in the Barton Hills / Zilker area (ended ~20min ago).

20 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

Did they reprogram you from recruiting to weather updates?

LCRA just sent an update to the marinas they may have to open Buchanan floodgates. Prepare accordingly. 

If that happens, combined with this plug coming down the Llano that extends all the way to Junction is going to do wonders for LT. I am giving up on predictions but dont be surprised if it sails past 670 either way.

Screenshot_20250713_150515_Chrome.thumb.jpg.1192153c453b22ca33199deb042ca4bc.jpg

Edited by HOOKEM4
ousux

Came to post the same, Buchanan flood gates are now expected to open. Crazy. 

Lake Travis approaching 663. Rise accelerated greatly over the last 12 hours. 

Edited by Dahobbs

I am as critical of LCRA as anyone I have met, but I really dont envy the folks in charge of timing this all out to avoid catastrophe between Buchanan and Travis. Holy shit the peaks are going to coincide and whatever decision they make will be wrong. Tough situation and I hope it all goes as smoothly as possible.

Edited by HOOKEM4
ousux

LT is still 18.5' low.  That's a lot of capacity, with much more room than than the last 18 feet.

Agree but the fact there is 50k cfs flowing most of the afternoon all the way in junction bodes well. I agree though. Wish I had the chart for volume per foot. Once we get to around where we are it climbs exponentially.

19 minutes ago, Iceman said:

LT is still 18.5' low.  That's a lot of capacity, with much more room than than the last 18 feet.

But still, managing the throughput between those two reservoirs is no easy task, which is what I think he meant.  

The math is on their side, is all I am saying. For now. 

4 minutes ago, Iceman said:

The math is on their side, is all I am saying. For now. 

I am 100% not saying LT will flood because of Buchanan releases. I am talking about managing the timing of the plug coming down the Llano and outflow from Buchanan through LBJ and Marble Falls. If they release a single cfs and people flood they will raise hell. Even if it was just the Llano that caused it. At this point I am thinking it wont be an issue. We should get the Llano plug overnight and if Buchanan releases, it will be tomorrow midday/afternoon.

I probably shouldn't have posted that. Like most posts. Live and dont learn.

2 hours ago, Iceman said:

LT is still 18.5' low.  That's a lot of capacity, with much more room than than the last 18 feet.

It's 18.5' from full. It's not 18.5' low. I'd be really interested in knowing what LCRA targets as "ideal" at different points of the year.

Buchanan basically has 100000 acre feet left in Conservation capacity.

Lake Travis has 300000.  In the last 10 days, Lake Travis has increased volume by just under 300000 acre feet.

It ain't the hand wringer some a y'all are making it, but...surly.

Edited by Iceman

^^That combined is more than Canyon Lake at capacity.  Wow.

I'm expecting CL to be close to 70% full by Wednesday.  Another big slug of H20 heading here from Kerrville/Comfort right now.

 

Edited by Cajun

13 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Buchanan basically has 100000 acre feet left in Conservation capacity.

Lake Travis has 300000.  In the last 10 days, Lake Travis has increased volume by just under 300000 acre feet.

It ain't the hand wringer some a y'all are making it, but...surly.

Well it ain't except your math is 24 hrs off. That matters.

2 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Well it ain't except your math is 24 hrs off. That matters.

yep

 

Edited by Iceman

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