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Is this bad?

Dow Index

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5,486.99

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NASDAQ Index

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  • cmontexas
    cmontexas

    No politics means no liberals it doesn't mean no politics 

  • Non-political tariffs thread   Lulz what .gif   or describe a grill cheese without mentioning cheese, bread, butter, food, eating, ingestion, or nutrition

  • Here’s how this plays out. Trump issues tariffs, costs of goods go up across the board. Trump “negotiates” a cease on tariffs. Prices never come down. Corporations and billionaires make additional tri

Posted Images

Heh. Rudy Guliani was with Newsmax at the opening bell. I think the simulation is fucking with us 

19 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Heh. Rudy Guliani was with Newsmax at the opening bell. I think the simulation is fucking with us 

IMG_4367.jpeg.681ae664762f790ad2d9ec232a6a8f8e.jpeg

What? You still believe America is a superpower that the world respects andtrusts?

26 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Is this bad?

Dow Index

41,084.50

- 1,140.82

-2.70% 

S&P 500 Index

5,486.99

- 183.98

-3.24% 

NASDAQ Index

16,830.35

- 770.69

-4.38% 

Bestest economy evah!!!

  • Popular Post

@ChickenSandwich , the USTR released the formula.  It is Exports to US- Imports from US/Imports from US. Nothing to to do with VATS or tariffs at all, just a simple ratio reflecting a bilat trade deficit. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.39e1316c095e15ba51d1936dbe56c89b.jpegimage.thumb.jpeg.b29d0f740bb9836bb573b563c02942a7.jpeg

 

They added some smart-sounding Econ terms and expressed them with Greek symbols to make this look complex and smart.  They fixed the value of epsilon at 4 and the value of psi at .25, ensuring that they will cancel each other out.  A laughable and transparent attempt to just make this simple formula look informed and analytical because they trust Americans won’t check and if they do, they’ll be too innumerate to replace the Greek symbols and do the simple task of multiplying an integer with its reciprocal and see that they just added some fucking chrome hubcaps onto their clapped out Altima equation.

They are absolutely right. 

I heard an administration mouthpiece on Bloomberg, I think it was, stating that Trump is not doing the tariffs for short term prosperity, his intention is that it comes to fruition later, possibly even after the next four years.  Eventually, we will return to the golden age of American industrial exceptionalism. 

We just have to tighten our belts and wait.

 

People who are most affected by this are gonna become food insecure and literally hafta tighten their belts.

Not the best way to address the obesity epidemic, but it will be very effective.

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

People who are most affected by this are gonna become food insecure and literally hafta tighten their belts.

Not the best way to address the obesity epidemic, but it will be very effective.

It'll actually make it worse. Processed, calorically dense foods will take the place of more nutritionally balanced (and less addictive) whole foods to an even greater extent than they do now.  

The problem is...well, there are so many problems.  Let's just talk about "bringing manufacturing and manufacturing jobs back."  Not. Going.  To happen.

We actually HAVE seen increases in manufacturing and production....but it doesn't come with more jobs, generally:

casselman-irt_0318-1.png?resize=621,512

But, to the extent that it's going to happen (increased manufacturing leading to more jobs), it has ALREADY been happening at a record pace -- the engine is running about as hot as it can, trying to juice it is fucking absurd:

A U.S. Record Set with More than 364,000 New Manufacturing Jobs in 2022 |  ASSEMBLY

364,000 manufacturing jobs added in 2022, a US record.

As of 2022, manufacturing employment was at a 15 yr high:

chart.png

 

So much so, that we are having a hard time FILLING all of the new manufacturing jobs (I can't find a nice clean chart on that quickly, but it's a real thing).  So sure, bring back the plastic toy soldier factory....who's going to work in it?

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Tesla dropped over 6% in after hours. 

Down 6% in trading this morning.

And the Dow is not pleased. Your typical American has no idea how many foreign components make up everything we buy, but the analysts sure as shit can probably break down just what countries are involved with which products.

29 minutes ago, Parliament said:

People who are most affected by this are gonna become food insecure and literally hafta tighten their belts.

Not the best way to address the obesity epidemic, but it will be very effective.

19 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It'll actually make it worse. Processed, calorically dense foods will take the place of more nutritionally balanced (and less addictive) whole foods to an even greater extent than they do now.  

Diabetes Cheesecake GIF

I could probably get you elected by forming the Luddite Party.

”No AI Or Robots” 

“One Human Per Wheel Tightening Lugnuts!”

”1,000 Patriots With Shovels Instead of One Woke Bulldozer !”

1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

I could probably get you elected by forming the Luddite Party.

”No AI Or Robots” 

“One Human Per Wheel Tightening Lugnuts!”

”1,000 Patriots With Shovels Instead of One Woke Bulldozer !”

Count Me In Season 5 GIF by New Girl

15 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

It is implied the numbers released are false or “made up.”  Seems like the “real” tariff amounts and VAT taxes applied to American exports would be relevant information before working yourself up in to a tizzy. 

you are never going to fucking learn are you?

IMG_4368.thumb.jpeg.03f295bbc2ad4ef52fd80a5b7f985a36.jpeg

Quote

Such a hit would be so frightening that it “makes one’s rational mind regard the possibility of them sticking as low,” according to Bhanu Baweja and other strategists at UBS.

I don’t know why so many smart people keep making the mistake of thinking that Trump has either the knowledge or inclination to know he made a mistake - or to correct his mistakes.

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

@ChickenSandwich , the USTR released the formula.  It is Exports to US- Imports from US/Imports from US. Nothing to to do with VATS or tariffs at all, just a simple ratio reflecting a bilat trade deficit. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.39e1316c095e15ba51d1936dbe56c89b.jpegimage.thumb.jpeg.b29d0f740bb9836bb573b563c02942a7.jpeg

 

They added some smart-sounding Econ terms and expressed them with Greek symbols to make this look complex and smart.  They fixed the value of epsilon at 4 and the value of psi at .25, ensuring that they will cancel each other out.  A laughable and transparent attempt to just make this simple formula look informed and analytical because they trust Americans won’t check and if they do, they’ll be too innumerate to replace the Greek symbols and do the simple task of multiplying an integer with its reciprocal and see that they just added some fucking chrome hubcaps onto their clapped out Altima equation.

They are absolutely right. 

The American voting public was stupid enough to elect a guy who cratered the economy in his first term then attempted an insurrection.  

They don't even have to try this hard. They could have put the equation as 

X=y+z

and 100 percent of their voters would have no idea it's bullshit. 

33 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

IMG_4368.thumb.jpeg.03f295bbc2ad4ef52fd80a5b7f985a36.jpeg

I don’t know why so many smart people keep making the mistake of thinking that Trump has either the knowledge or inclination to know he made a mistake - or to correct his mistakes.

"Shooting one's dick clean off is such a horrific prospect that we can't imagine continuing to do so," says analyst watching in horror as Trumpco repeatedly shoots itself in the groin, and is now reloading.

Jesus.  Fucking.  Christ.  EVERYONE KNOWS WHO AND WHAT THESE PEOPLE ARE AND WHAT THEY WILL DO.  THEY HAVE SAID IT AND BACKED IT UP COUNTLESS TIMES.  STOP BEING INCREDULOUS, AND START BELIEVING THE TRUTH: THEY ARE AS AWFUL AS THEY SAY, MAYBE EVEN WORSE.

We also levied a flat ten percent tariff on countries we have a trade surplus with. The USTR has not even bothered to make a joke explanation for that. 

  • Popular Post

i gotta say guys, you are all focused on all the horrific outcomes of imposing completely arbitrary and capricious trade war disruptions into a humming global economy for no apparent reason whatsoever and predicated on a nonsensical approach not rooted in any thoughtful or measured intention to speak of.

but you are focused on the wrong thing. as a professional economist, you have no idea the event study data this is going to create for us. i'm going to be able to publish to most badass dsge model paper that revises all of the widely-accepted consensus from the last 150 years of economic data that overwhelmingly shows how horrible this all is. by demonstrating that while imposing tariffs to achieve some sort of policy goal targeted towards a particular trade outcome between specific actors is super bad and literally never worked in history, being a complete fucking idiot and just throwing a completely erratic and haphazard grenade onto the planet will undoubtedly get the optimum equilibrium outcome benefiting everyone on earth. see you fuckers in sweden while i'm picking up my nobel prize. a halt to the global economy and widespread suffering is a sacrifice that i'm willing for you all to make.

Edited by sidis

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

Who knew ol' Ronnie was such a commie.

HE'S A RINO!!!!

@956 Worldwide

chrome hubcaps onto their clapped out Altima equation

This needs way more love!

@Brisketexan

I've said it here before and I don't know numbers but there is a massive gap between demand for manufacturing workers and supply. These aren't all the old school assembly line gigs most people think of, though many are those too. Some are assembly line management gigs ($150-200). 

In other news, distribution was flying lots of red flags today, not surprisingly, proactively urging to margin protect on upcoming projects.

The price increases have already arrived. Prepare your anus! 

16 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

In other news, distribution was flying lots of red flags today, not surprisingly, proactively urging to margin protect on upcoming projects.

The price increases have already arrived. Prepare your anus! 

Many companies in my area started them over a month ago.  Disti channel is already seeing it, direct routes to market will see it starting today.  Average of 10% increase across the board, higher in cases where value is higher.  There's been a flurry of customer buy-ahead activity, that should come to an end now.

 

 

Edited by utee94

17 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Many companies in my area started them over a month ago.  Disti channel is already seeing it, direct routes to market will see it starting today.  Average of 10% increase across the board, higher in cases where value is higher.  There's been a flurry of customer buy-ahead activity, that should come to an end now.

 

 

I noted it in my post in the last page but the number I'm getting is 10-15 from manufacturers before yesterday. I've been telling client 30-40% and that my estimate is conservative as it doesn't account for any shortages in supply chain nor opportunistic price gouging in channel. 

The buying is at a flurry pace to get shit in ASAP. 

The downstream effect concerns me... I'm using the word "concerns" to act manly and not go full edge lord/ @Brisketexan

But... I'm getting pretty close. 

Edited by BurntEyes

1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:

I noted it in my post in the last page but the number I'm getting is 10-15 from manufacturers before yesterday. I've been telling client 30-40% and that my estimate is conservative as it doesn't account for any shortages in supply chain nor opportunistic price gouging in channel. 

The buying is at a flurry pace to get shit in ASAP. 

The downstream effect concerns me... I'm using the word "concerns" to act manly and not go full edge lord/ @Brisketexan

But... I'm getting pretty close. 

The term is "ledge lord," good sir.

Just remember my rules, and it will all make sense:

 

1) It only gets worse.

2) There is no bottom.

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Just remember my rules, and it will all make sense:

1) It only gets worse.

2) There is no bottom.

Speaking of bottoms

IMG_4369.thumb.png.bee9ef53a321ea66ccf73ecd15c23a35.png

Ladybugs never said when the Republican Party would be destroyed if they nominated Trump.

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Jesus.  Fucking.  Christ.  EVERYONE KNOWS WHO AND WHAT THESE PEOPLE ARE AND WHAT THEY WILL DO.  THEY HAVE SAID IT AND BACKED IT UP COUNTLESS TIMES.  STOP BEING INCREDULOUS, AND START BELIEVING THE TRUTH: THEY ARE AS AWFUL AS THEY SAY, MAYBE EVEN WORSE.

Not that I wholly disagree, but this looks and reads an awful lot like a Trump post.  DO SOMETHING!!

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

@ChickenSandwich , the USTR released the formula.  It is Exports to US- Imports from US/Imports from US. Nothing to to do with VATS or tariffs at all, just a simple ratio reflecting a bilat trade deficit. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.39e1316c095e15ba51d1936dbe56c89b.jpegimage.thumb.jpeg.b29d0f740bb9836bb573b563c02942a7.jpeg

 

They added some smart-sounding Econ terms and expressed them with Greek symbols to make this look complex and smart.  They fixed the value of epsilon at 4 and the value of psi at .25, ensuring that they will cancel each other out.  A laughable and transparent attempt to just make this simple formula look informed and analytical because they trust Americans won’t check and if they do, they’ll be too innumerate to replace the Greek symbols and do the simple task of multiplying an integer with its reciprocal and see that they just added some fucking chrome hubcaps onto their clapped out Altima equation.

They are absolutely right. 

L O fucking L.

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Any moment now @ChickenSandwich will come in and admit he misunderstood what VAT is and how tariffs work. 

And that, like Helobious, he has since done some research and can't believe that he made it through college without being taught that info

17 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Any moment now @ChickenSandwich will come in and admit he misunderstood what VAT is and how tariffs work. 

He's busy looking into right wing prop pages to figure out how to argue that trade deficits are bad so the calculation is basically correct and necessary. I mean the word deficit is right there in the name! 

15 minutes ago, Catpfish said:

And that, like Helobious, he has since done some research and can't believe that he made it through college without being taught that info

Hey, props to Helobious for actually recognizing that he did not know something. I doubt that ChickenSandwich will ever have nearly that much self-awareness.

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I could probably get you elected by forming the Luddite Party.

”No AI Or Robots” 

“One Human Per Wheel Tightening Lugnuts!”

”1,000 Patriots With Shovels Instead of One Woke Bulldozer !”

Welcome to my party, the party of the future!

🏴‍☠️Maddox🏴‍☠️ on X: "This edict is more regressive than anything I've  proposed in my satirical Regressive Party. https://t.co/DJ5TyX7FTD" / X

IMG_4371.thumb.png.1879eb604b907d35a1ea1a413d27ac95.png

 

Quote

The idea is that Fed rate cuts and supply-side stimulus from tax cuts and deregulation will then be able to build up the economy without the need for government spending.

Voodoo Economics worked so well the last time Reagan tried it without tariffs…

  • Popular Post

image.thumb.jpeg.474dcbb415ac66be0ff376683523aa4d.jpeg

26 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

IMG_4371.thumb.png.1879eb604b907d35a1ea1a413d27ac95.png

 

Voodoo Economics worked so well the last time Reagan tried it without tariffs…

Yeah.....we're going to try the absolute WORST version of trickle down, because all of the last failures were because....we didn't fuck up hard enough.  Goddammit we are so fucking stupid.

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah.....we're going to try the absolute WORST version of trickle down, because all of the last failures were because....we didn't fuck up hard enough.  Goddammit we are so fucking stupid.

This.  Also, if you’re old enough to recognize Daddy Bush’s voodoo economics quote - and remember that Reagan was all about supply side economics - you are older than a shit-ton of people who pushed the election lever for Trump and have no fucking idea what we are talking about.

5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

This.  Also, if you’re old enough to recognize Daddy Bush’s voodoo economics quote - and remember that Reagan was all about supply side economics - you are older than a shit-ton of people who pushed the election lever for Trump and have no fucking idea what we are talking about.

Yep.  And man, I've confessed my youthful stupidity -- "trickle down economics" as a hypothesis appealed to my younger, not fully informed brain.  BUT....I then got the experience of watching us try it in multiple iterations over the past decades.  And like someone observing attempt after attempt at making a working flapping flying machine.....

jirfv9.gif

I keenly spotted the results and concluded "well, guess I was wrong.  That doesn't work."  I'm sure I was dumb for buying into the hypothesis.  But once the experiment was run....repeatedly....demonstrating that the hypothesis is incorrect...I'd have to be dumber than dumb AND a psychopath for thinking it still should work.

Yet, instead of reaching that conclusion.....we're deciding "hey, the reason our flapping flying machine didn't work is because we started off too low to the ground.  Let's climb up that 1,000 foot cliff, and jump off from there!"  The fucking impact with the ground is gonna be brutal.

I would’ve gone with the Titan carbon diving bell for the youngsters, but co-sign

9 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

image.png.a61a9f26ce2e3afa074a0e5783095db6.png

Negotiate what, Mr. President? Give specific examples.

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

Idk how to get this thread back on track. 

Try to leave politics out of it. 

There’s nothing about the tariffs that’s non political.  The form of these tariffs and the form of idiotic politics is the form of sameness.  In platonic terms.

IMG_4372.thumb.png.a8f8701038ff2bdddb711866158635c2.png

I only posted this to note that some billionaire investor demands world leaders “not keep Trump waiting”.

So my question to Surly is this: how long do you think it will be before we learn how the rest of the world views this?

_days _weeks _muledick

and if they retaliate with their own raised tariffs, is there any chance that the US will back down to avert a global recession?

_no _yes _fuck Georgia

 

Just now, Gatorubet said:

and if they retaliate with their own raised tariffs, is there any chance that the US will back down to avert a global recession?

See the Economist piece I clipped on the CR thread -- the best strategy for the rest of the world is to 1) accelerate disengagement from trade with the US to the largest extent possible, and 2) seek new, rational trading partners/relationships to fill the gap.  The US economy is big, but on the actual global scale, not so big that it can't be somewhat isolated, with engagement reduced to the bare minimum.

A trade war is not the best play for the rest of the world.  Slowly walking away is a much better play.

7 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I could probably get you elected by forming the Luddite Party.

”No AI Or Robots” 

“One Human Per Wheel Tightening Lugnuts!”

”1,000 Patriots With Shovels Instead of One Woke Bulldozer !”

 

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