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4 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

+12 on the Red Sox today in run differential

The Red Sox lost today, so gained a game on them. Have to keep winning. Want to have the best record in the AL at the end of the season. 

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  • wesleywest
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Nice outing by JV. Scattered the hits and rang guys up. Weird box score, but glad we came on the good side of it. The Angels obviously are kind of a mess.

if my numbers are correct, and i like to think that they are, our staff (including ken giles) now has a season era of 2.90.

for those scoring at home, that's good enough for 9th place in the al, behind two astros, and just ahead of charlie morton (2.96), and behind corey kluber (2.74).

if my numbers are correct, and i like to think that they are, our staff (including ken giles) now has a season era of 2.90.
for those scoring at home, that's good enough for 9th place in the al, behind two astros, and just ahead of charlie morton (2.96), and behind corey kluber (2.74).

Bullpen has an ERA of 2.74, 0.25 better than the starters. Mez needs lasik.

That was a fun game. Angels fan would have left earlier if it wasn’t for the fireworks show after the game. 

 

I called the springer GS when stros only  has one runner on and no outs. 

I felt like a god when it happened

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3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

This offense is not good right now.

Pos rep for the reverse jinx!

9 hours ago, TonyTexas said:


Bullpen has an ERA of 2.74, 0.25 better than the starters. Mez needs lasik.

Talk to me in the post season

They are leaving out a statistic that quantifies and justifies the nervousness the rest of us feel about this bullpen in the postseason.  

Adding a bullpen arm is more important for the regular season than the playoffs.  The bullpen looks real nice when 2 out of Keuchel, Morton and LMJ will be available for long relief to close out games.

59 minutes ago, runthebone said:

These bullpen defenders have all their stats then leave out the fact it has the worst clutch rating by a shitton. 

Link:. https://climbingtalshill.com/2018/07/19/astros-bullpen-help-top-priority-trade-deadline-looms/

 

Interesting. I looked a little closer at this rating by individual player, and there seems to be a lot of variance. For example, Peacock has a very poor clutch rating this year, but has mostly been neutral for his career. I wonder if this rating truly captures actual characteristics of players or units (which could be predictive) or if it is mostly noise (not actual trends, just mostly random variation)?

20 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Interesting. I looked a little closer at this rating by individual player, and there seems to be a lot of variance. For example, Peacock has a very poor clutch rating this year, but has mostly been neutral for his career. I wonder if this rating truly captures actual characteristics of players or units (which could be predictive) or if it is mostly noise (not actual trends, just mostly random variation)?

it's noise

I don't think it's totally noise, it is descriptive but not necessarily predictive.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/clutch/

 

Given the fact that this bullpen was great in the regular season last year then shit the bed in the postseason—and that the Astros won despite the bullpen, not because of it—it is the obvious place for an upgrade along with LF and perhaps C.

If I understand correctly, this clutch stat measures how well a player/team performs in high leverage situations compared to its/his normal performance. So if you are unworldly normally but merely good in high leverage, you will have a negative clutch rating. Conversely, if a team/player is mediocre in high leverage but awful normally then they will have positive clutch number.

 

Seems like noise.

 

1 hour ago, runthebone said:

They are leaving out a statistic that quantifies and justifies the nervousness the rest of us feel about this bullpen in the postseason.  

This implies that their current clutch rating has a strong influence over or indicative  of their future clutch rating, which isn’t correct. 

Edited by Fozzz

hopefully heaney doesn't shut our shit down.  pretty sure he has before.

Yep. Beat us in May 2-1. 8 IP, 10 SO
AJ let it slip that Correa is a couple of weeks away from even a rehab assignment. Oops.

And when did it go from “oblique” to “back”?

And when did it go from “oblique” to “back”?

Different injury. He missed a few games in early June with an oblique strain
2 hours ago, Fozzz said:

This implies that their current clutch rating has a strong influence over or indicative  of their future clutch rating, which isn’t correct. 

No, that's not what I implied at all.  

Edited by runthebone

It explains why so many of us feel that the bullpen, despite having good overall mean numbers, seems to shit the bed unexpectedly often. 

That doesn't make it a bad bullpen, it makes it one that seems worse and less reliable than the mean numbers suggest.  

 

15 hours ago, TonyTexas said:


Bullpen has an ERA of 2.74, 0.25 better than the starters. Mez needs lasik.

When the bullpen allows inherited runs to score, that goes on the starters ERA.

1 hour ago, runthebone said:

No, that's not what I implied at all.  

Then how does the pen’s current clutch score justify your neverousness about the bullpen in the postseason?  If their current clutch score is not predictive of their clutch score in the future then what is the point of citing that statistic?

What I said is that it explains why so many of us feel that the bullpen, despite having good overall mean numbers, seems to shit the bed unexpectedly often.  As in this season.

I think there is plenty of reason to be nervous about this bullpen in the postseason.  Unless you are "implying" that the past is meaningless and that literally only this exact moment in time matters.

 

 

Edited by runthebone

They also seemingly shit the bed a lot because we’re so fucking good.
When you’re in every game, have the lead late way more often than not, and have closed out 65 of a 100 with a W, every game that ends with a negative outcome is amplified a million times.

This game will cause our bullpen’s clutch number to improve. Great stat.

 

 

So we lost 17 runs to Boston in the run differential “race” today. Not that it means anything, because it doesn’t.

This team needs some help offensively, and for J.D. Davis to never play 3B again.

2-3-4 didn't do much this weekend, although springer seems to have found something.  maybe coors will flip the switch.

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