March 19Mar 19 1 seeds: Auburn 8 seeds: Miss St 9 seeds: Baylor, Creighton, OU 14 seeds: Lipscomb, Montana, Troy, UNC Wilmington 15 seeds: Bryant, Omaha, Robert Morris, Wofford 16 seeds: Alabama St, Norfolk, SIUE and the winner of American/Mt St Mary
March 19Mar 19 Can't wait to see which 16 seed first four pair I get. And I can wait even less to watch them beat a 1 seed.
March 19Mar 19 My morning starts late fyi first meeting at 9am Cali time, so I will be up around 855am
March 19Mar 19 Let me get them Blue Jays. @Wulaw Horn Remaining should be: 9 seeds: OU 14 seeds: Lipscomb, Montana, Troy, UNC Wilmington 15 seeds: Bryant, Omaha, Robert Morris, Wofford 16 seeds: Alabama St, Norfolk, SIUE and the winner of American/Mt St Mary
March 19Mar 19 Author I’m gone for the night. I think I only have one more team to pick- the least shitty 16 seed.
March 19Mar 19 Author Assuming there isn’t a 15 seed left because someone got stupid I will take Norfolk state as my last pick. If there’s a 15 or 14 seed left for some dumb reason give me them. Otherwise Norfolk State.
March 19Mar 19 Ugh, too early in the morning to be doing this. I'll take Lipscomb. @Zepol87, now you're up.
March 19Mar 19 9 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said: Assuming there isn’t a 15 seed left because someone got stupid I will take Norfolk state as my last pick. If there’s a 15 or 14 seed left for some dumb reason give me them. Otherwise Norfolk State. Let's assume that @Wulaw Horn hasn't changed his mind about this and let @ztejas pick.
March 19Mar 19 Author Norfolk was still my pick. @Prepuce of Doomis up now right. He picks for himself and Huck and we are wrapped up before lunch on Wednesday oh yea of little faith. As always! Hope everyone enjoys as always/ like the banter and back and forth in the thread and Huck and his numbers.
March 19Mar 19 Author And we are done! @Huckleberrycan run his numbers and tell me he’s supposed to win and I’m supposed to finish 8th. I always seem to finish 3-5th.
March 19Mar 19 I plan to recopy this because it will perpetually annoy me how I fucked up when making the blank grid, but here are the results. Edited March 19Mar 19 by Prepuce of Doom
March 19Mar 19 Pre-Draft Team EVs 1. Gonzaga, 17.73 - Huckleberry 2. Maryland, 16.49 - HornOnTheBayou 3. Arizona, 15.92 - Huckleberry 4. Missouri, 14.88 - HornOnTheBayou 5. Kansas, 14.10 - ztejas 6. Illinois, 14.02 - Huckleberry 7. Texas Tech, 13.67 - HornOnTheBayou 8. Colorado St., 13.49 - Derka 9. Marquette, 12.27 - Prepuce of Doom 10. Iowa St., 12.11 - HornOnTheBayou 11. North Carolina/San Diego St., 12.07 - Bartles 12. BYU, 12.00 - Prepuce of Doom 13. Purdue, 11.95 - Huckleberry 14. UCLA, 11.91 - Zepol87 15. Baylor, 11.07 - Huckleberry 16. Clemson, 10.96 - ztejas 17. Michigan, 10.95 - ztejas 18. Alabama, 10.67 - Huckleberry 19. Texas A&M, 10.59 - HornOnTheBayou 20. Texas/Xavier, 10.55 - Wulaw Horn 21. Louisville, 10.45 - Prepuce of Doom 22. Wisconsin, 10.16 - Zepol87 23. Arkansas, 9.99 - Zepol87 24. St. Mary's, 9.97 - Derka 25. Virginia Commonwealth, 9.93 - Derka 26. Tennessee, 9.85 - Wulaw Horn 27. Connecticut, 9.82 - Bartles 28. Kentucky, 9.61 - Zepol87 29. Mississippi, 9.30 - Wulaw Horn 30. Oregon, 8.94 - Bartles 31. Vanderbilt, 8.90 - Bartles 32. New Mexico, 8.85 - Derka 33. Michigan St., 8.46 - Wulaw Horn 34. Auburn, 8.44 - Huckleberry 35. UC-San Diego, 8.32 - Derka 36. Utah St., 8.25 - Bartles 37. Duke, 7.69 - HornOnTheBayou 38. Mississippi St., 7.62 - Prepuce of Doom 39. Oklahoma, 7.35 - Wulaw Horn 40. St. John's, 7.32 - Wulaw Horn 41. Florida, 7.14 - ztejas 42. Creighton, 6.88 - ztejas 43. Georgia, 6.85 - ztejas 44. Houston, 6.79 - Prepuce of Doom 45. Memphis, 4.53 - Prepuce of Doom 46. McNeese St., 4.49 - ztejas 47. Liberty, 4.43 - Zepol87 48. Drake, 3.57 - Prepuce of Doom 49. Yale, 3.54 - Zepol87 50. Grand Canyon, 3.42 - Wulaw Horn 51. High Point, 3.33 - Bartles 52. Lipscomb, 2.68 - HornOnTheBayou 53. Troy, 2.20 - Derka 54. Akron, 1.59 - Derka 55. UNC-Wilmington, 1.52 - Zepol87 56. Montana, 1.37 - Bartles 57. Robert Morris, 1.29 - Bartles 58. Wofford, 1.28 - Zepol87 59. Bryant, 1.01 - Derka 60. Nebraska-Omaha, 0.96 - HornOnTheBayou 61. Norfolk St., 0.31 - Wulaw Horn 62. SIU-Edwardsville, 0.20 - Prepuce of Doom 63. American/Mount St. Mary's, 0.16 - Huckleberry 64. Alabama St./St. Francis (PA), 0.04 - ztejas
March 19Mar 19 Current Poster EVs 1. Huckleberry - 89.97 2. HornOnTheBayou - 79.07 3. ztejas - 61.41 4. Prepuce of Doom - 57.43 5. Wulaw Horn - 56.55 6. Derka - 55.35 7. Bartles - 53.97 8. Zepol87 - 52.44
March 19Mar 19 Thursday Matchups (Team points so far, Team EV, Poster - Probability team reaches Sweet 16) #8 Louisville (0, 10.45, Prepuce of Doom - 14.26%) vs. #9 Creighton (0, 6.88, ztejas - 7.82%) #4 Purdue (0, 11.95, Huckleberry - 50.58%) vs. #13 High Point (0, 3.33, Bartles - 3.72%) #3 Wisconsin (0, 10.16, Zepol87 - 52.96%) vs. #14 Montana (0, 1.37, Bartles - 0.89%) #1 Houston (0, 6.79, Prepuce of Doom - 66.36%) vs. #16 SIU-Edwardsville (0, 0.20, Prepuce of Doom - 0.07%) #1 Auburn (0, 8.44, Huckleberry - 77.92%) vs. #16 Alabama St. (0, 0.03, ztejas - 0.01%) #5 Clemson (0, 10.96, ztejas - 39.48%) vs. #12 McNeese St. (0, 4.49, ztejas - 6.21%) #6 BYU (0, 12.00, Prepuce of Doom - 31.10%) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth (0, 9.93, Derka - 15.05%) #8 Gonzaga (0, 17.73, Huckleberry - 24.85%) vs. #9 Georgia (0, 6.85, ztejas - 8.71%) #2 Tennessee (0, 9.85, Wulaw Horn - 63.74%) vs. #15 Wofford (0, 1.28, Zepol87 - 0.95%) #7 Kansas (0, 14.10, ztejas - 29.50%) vs. #10 Arkansas (0, 9.99, Zepol87 - 15.49%) #4 Texas A&M (0, 10.59, HornOnTheBayou - 46.38%) vs. #13 Yale (0, 3.54, Zepol87 - 4.26%) #6 Missouri (0, 14.88, HornOnTheBayou - 34.78%) vs. #11 Drake (0, 3.57, Prepuce of Doom - 3.89%) #7 UCLA (0, 11.91, Zepol87 - 23.72%) vs. #10 Utah St. (0, 8.25, Bartles - 11.58%) #2 St. John's (0, 7.32, Wulaw Horn - 54.42%) vs. #15 Nebraska-Omaha (0, 0.96, HornOnTheBayou - 0.58%) #5 Michigan (0, 10.95, ztejas - 36.95%) vs. #12 UC-San Diego (0, 8.32, Derka - 12.41%) #3 Texas Tech (0, 13.67, HornOnTheBayou - 60.03%) vs. #14 UNC-Wilmington (0, 1.52, Zepol87 - 1.31%)
March 19Mar 19 Author 11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: Pre-Draft Team EVs 1. Gonzaga, 17.73 - Huckleberry 2. Maryland, 16.49 - HornOnTheBayou 3. Arizona, 15.92 - Huckleberry 4. Missouri, 14.88 - HornOnTheBayou 5. Kansas, 14.10 - ztejas 6. Illinois, 14.02 - Huckleberry 7. Texas Tech, 13.67 - HornOnTheBayou 8. Colorado St., 13.49 - Derka 9. Marquette, 12.27 - Prepuce of Doom 10. Iowa St., 12.11 - HornOnTheBayou 11. North Carolina/San Diego St., 12.07 - Bartles 12. BYU, 12.00 - Prepuce of Doom 13. Purdue, 11.95 - Huckleberry 14. UCLA, 11.91 - Zepol87 15. Baylor, 11.07 - Huckleberry 16. Clemson, 10.96 - ztejas 17. Michigan, 10.95 - ztejas 18. Alabama, 10.67 - Huckleberry 19. Texas A&M, 10.59 - HornOnTheBayou 20. Texas/Xavier, 10.55 - Wulaw Horn 21. Louisville, 10.45 - Prepuce of Doom 22. Wisconsin, 10.16 - Zepol87 23. Arkansas, 9.99 - Zepol87 24. St. Mary's, 9.97 - Derka 25. Virginia Commonwealth, 9.93 - Derka 26. Tennessee, 9.85 - Wulaw Horn 27. Connecticut, 9.82 - Bartles 28. Kentucky, 9.61 - Zepol87 29. Mississippi, 9.30 - Wulaw Horn 30. Oregon, 8.94 - Bartles 31. Vanderbilt, 8.90 - Bartles 32. New Mexico, 8.85 - Derka 33. Michigan St., 8.46 - Wulaw Horn 34. Auburn, 8.44 - Huckleberry 35. UC-San Diego, 8.32 - Derka 36. Utah St., 8.25 - Bartles 37. Duke, 7.69 - HornOnTheBayou 38. Mississippi St., 7.62 - Prepuce of Doom 39. Oklahoma, 7.35 - Wulaw Horn 40. St. John's, 7.32 - Wulaw Horn 41. Florida, 7.14 - ztejas 42. Creighton, 6.88 - ztejas 43. Georgia, 6.85 - ztejas 44. Houston, 6.79 - Prepuce of Doom 45. Memphis, 4.53 - Prepuce of Doom 46. McNeese St., 4.49 - ztejas 47. Liberty, 4.43 - Zepol87 48. Drake, 3.57 - Prepuce of Doom 49. Yale, 3.54 - Zepol87 50. Grand Canyon, 3.42 - Wulaw Horn 51. High Point, 3.33 - Bartles 52. Lipscomb, 2.68 - HornOnTheBayou 53. Troy, 2.20 - Derka 54. Akron, 1.59 - Derka 55. UNC-Wilmington, 1.52 - Zepol87 56. Montana, 1.37 - Bartles 57. Robert Morris, 1.29 - Bartles 58. Wofford, 1.28 - Zepol87 59. Bryant, 1.01 - Derka 60. Nebraska-Omaha, 0.96 - HornOnTheBayou 61. Norfolk St., 0.31 - Wulaw Horn 62. SIU-Edwardsville, 0.20 - Prepuce of Doom 63. American/Mount St. Mary's, 0.16 - Huckleberry 64. Alabama St./St. Francis (PA), 0.04 - ztejas So, I didn’t pick the right teams but I at least picked them in the right order more or less. Strategery! 6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: Current Poster EVs 1. Huckleberry - 89.97 2. HornOnTheBayou - 79.07 3. ztejas - 61.41 4. Prepuce of Doom - 57.43 5. Wulaw Horn - 56.55 6. Derka - 55.35 7. Bartles - 53.97 8. Zepol87 - 52.44 This might be the most balanced post draft EV rankings ever.
March 19Mar 19 4 hours ago, Huckleberry said: Current Poster EVs 1. Huckleberry - 89.97 2. HornOnTheBayou - 79.07 3. ztejas - 61.41 4. Prepuce of Doom - 57.43 5. Wulaw Horn - 56.55 6. Derka - 55.35 7. Bartles - 53.97 8. Zepol87 - 52.44 Right where I expected to be lol
March 21Mar 21 Poster, Current Score, EV ztejas, 26, 56.58 Zepol87, 20, 66.27 Prepuce of Doom, 18, 64.32 Huckleberry, 13, 104.69 HornOnTheBayou, 7, 69.44 Wulaw Horn, 4, 56.67 Bartles, 0, 42.56 Derka, 0, 36.88
March 21Mar 21 Today's Matchups: #8 Mississippi St. (0, 7.57, Prepuce of Doom - 11.03%) vs. #9 Baylor (0, 11.00, Huckleberry - 14.03%) #2 Alabama (0, 10.46, Huckleberry - 66.66%) vs. #15 Robert Morris (0, 1.29, Bartles - 0.91%) #3 Iowa St. (0, 11.92, HornOnTheBayou - 55.62%) vs. #14 Lipscomb (0, 2.61, HornOnTheBayou - 2.43%) #5 Memphis (0, 4.52, Prepuce of Doom - 14.71%) vs. #12 Colorado St. (0, 13.46, Derka - 18.46%) #1 Duke (0, 7.67, HornOnTheBayou - 74.91%) vs. #16 Mount St. Mary's (0, 0.10, Huckleberry - 0.03%) #7 St. Mary's (0, 9.82, Derka - 19.99%) vs. #10 Vanderbilt (0, 8.79, Bartles - 12.44%) #6 Mississippi (0, 8.71, Wulaw Horn - 22.35%) vs. #11 North Carolina (0, 13.78, Bartles - 19.60%) #4 Maryland (0, 16.45, HornOnTheBayou - 62.12%) vs. #13 Grand Canyon (0, 3.41, Wulaw Horn - 4.71%) #1 Florida (0, 7.13, ztejas - 75.79%) vs. #16 Norfolk St. (0, 0.31, Wulaw Horn - 0.11%) #3 Kentucky (0, 9.48, Zepol87 - 48.13%) vs. #14 Troy (0, 2.20, Derka - 1.88%) #7 Marquette (0, 12.20, Prepuce of Doom - 25.90%) vs. #10 New Mexico (0, 8.80, Derka - 13.29%) #4 Arizona (0, 15.86, Huckleberry - 63.79%) vs. #13 Akron (0, 1.59, Derka - 1.70%) #8 Connecticut (0, 9.79, Bartles - 14.56%) vs. #9 Oklahoma (0, 7.33, Wulaw Horn - 9.55%) #6 Illinois (0, 13.93, Huckleberry - 34.38%) vs. #11 Xavier (0, 10.09, Wulaw Horn - 15.61%) #2 Michigan St. (0, 8.40, Wulaw Horn - 60.26%) vs. #15 Bryant (0, 1.01, Derka - 0.56%) #5 Oregon (0, 8.92, Bartles - 29.70%) vs. #12 Liberty (0, 4.43, Zepol87 - 4.81%)
March 21Mar 21 Lol so my Kansas pick was - in theory - close to the right pick. What a shitty Kansas team.
March 21Mar 21 I'm about to be 0-6. Strategy of picking low seeds only works if you pick the right ones.
March 22Mar 22 after i tried to take kentucky and was told they’d been drafted i suddenly looked up and realized i’d forgotten to pick any teams that will actually make it past the first weekend lol. the draft wasn’t even over and i was like, “oh damn, i’m finishing last.” lol.
March 22Mar 22 Poster, Current Score, EV Huckleberry, 34, 121.10 Derka, 29, 59.92 ztejas, 27, 56.34 Zepol87, 23, 61.71 Prepuce of Doom, 18, 39.74 HornOnTheBayou, 15, 70.57 Bartles, 13, 27.51 Wulaw Horn, 12, 42.90 Saturday's Matchups: #4 Purdue (4, 17.13, Huckleberry - 78.33%) vs. #12 McNeese St. (12, 18.35, ztejas - 21.67%) #2 St. John's (2, 8.37, Wulaw Horn - 64.44%) vs. #10 Arkansas (10, 23.53, Zepol87 - 35.56%) #4 Texas A&M (4, 11.72, HornOnTheBayou - 49.66%) vs. #5 Michigan (5, 15.29, ztejas - 50.34%) #3 Texas Tech (3, 18.97, HornOnTheBayou - 86.56%) vs. #11 Drake (11, 15.01, Prepuce of Doom - 13.44%) #1 Auburn (1, 8.56, Huckleberry - 81.77%) vs. #9 Creighton (9, 15.77, ztejas - 18.23%) #3 Wisconsin (3, 10.18, Zepol87 - 52.52%) vs. #6 BYU (6, 18.45, Prepuce of Doom - 47.48%) #1 Houston (1, 6.29, Prepuce of Doom - 61.57%) vs. #8 Gonzaga (8, 27.46, Huckleberry - 38.43%) #2 Tennessee (2, 9.72, Wulaw Horn - 64.37%) vs. #7 UCLA (7, 18.05, Zepol87 - 35.63%)
March 23Mar 23 Poster, Current Score, EV Huckleberry, 44, 103.99 Zepol87, 43, 64.64 ztejas, 37, 51.44 Prepuce of Doom, 32, 51.97 Derka, 29, 59.86 HornOnTheBayou, 21, 66.17 Wulaw Horn, 16, 40.01 Bartles, 13, 27.49 Today's Matchups #1 Florida (1, 6.87, ztejas - 75.63%) vs. #8 Connecticut (8, 16.37, Bartles - 24.37%) #1 Duke (1, 7.47, HornOnTheBayou - 74.59%) vs. #9 Baylor (9, 19.73, Huckleberry - 25.41%) #3 Kentucky (3, 9.37, Zepol87 - 49.02%) vs. #6 Illinois (6, 19.98, Huckleberry - 50.98%) #2 Alabama (2, 10.82, Huckleberry - 68.68%) vs. #7 St. Mary's (7, 16.20, Derka - 31.32%) #4 Maryland (4, 18.73, HornOnTheBayou - 71.09%) vs. #12 Colorado St. (12, 23.02, Derka - 28.91%) #3 Iowa St. (3, 13.19, HornOnTheBayou - 62.42%) vs. #6 Mississippi (6, 15.25, Wulaw Horn - 37.58%) #2 Michigan St. (2, 9.12, Wulaw Horn - 69.54%) vs. #10 New Mexico (10, 20.64, Derka - 30.46%) #4 Arizona (4, 16.12, Huckleberry - 64.45%) vs. #5 Oregon (5, 11.12, Bartles - 35.55%)
March 24Mar 24 It has now evened way out on the EV front because none of my lower seeds won their second round games. Gonzaga, Baylor, and Illinois all lost. Really needed one. Poster, Current Score, EV Huckleberry, 56, 87.18 Zepol87, 49, 70.38 ztejas, 39, 52.81 Wulaw Horn, 32, 57.55 Prepuce of Doom, 32, 49.39 HornOnTheBayou, 31, 61.11 Derka, 29, 29.00 Bartles, 13, 13.00 I will work on the Sweet 16 forecast and get that out later today or tomorrow. Edited March 24Mar 24 by Huckleberry
March 24Mar 24 Poster - Win Probability (# Paths) Huckleberry - 41.53% (10,468) Zepol87 - 19.34% (8,934) HornOnTheBayou - 16.31% (3,159) Wulaw Horn - 7.57% (3,751) ztejas - 6.88% (2,821) Prepuce of Doom - 6.52% (3,172) Tie - 1.84% (463) Bartles - 0.00% (0) Derka - 0.00% (0)
March 24Mar 24 Author 36 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: Poster - Win Probability (# Paths) Huckleberry - 41.53% (10,468) Zepol87 - 19.34% (8,934) HornOnTheBayou - 16.31% (3,159) Wulaw Horn - 7.57% (3,751) ztejas - 6.88% (2,821) Prepuce of Doom - 6.52% (3,172) Tie - 1.84% (463) Bartles - 0.00% (0) Derka - 0.00% (0) And I’m in the same spot I always am- having an outside punchers chance that won’t hit in the sweet 16.
March 25Mar 25 12 hours ago, Huckleberry said: Poster - Win Probability (# Paths) Huckleberry - 41.53% (10,468) Zepol87 - 19.34% (8,934) HornOnTheBayou - 16.31% (3,159) Wulaw Horn - 7.57% (3,751) ztejas - 6.88% (2,821) Prepuce of Doom - 6.52% (3,172) Tie - 1.84% (463) Bartles - 0.00% (0) Derka - 0.00% (0)
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