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Featured Replies

1 seeds: Auburn

8 seeds: Miss St

9 seeds: Baylor, Creighton, OU

14 seeds: Lipscomb, Montana, Troy, UNC Wilmington

15 seeds: Bryant, Omaha, Robert Morris, Wofford

16 seeds: Alabama St, Norfolk, SIUE and the winner of American/Mt St Mary

Can't wait to see which 16 seed first four pair I get. And I can wait even less to watch them beat a 1 seed.

It's midnight for me, so if it gets to my pick that will be in the morning

My morning starts late fyi first meeting at 9am Cali time, so I will be up around 855am

Let me get them Blue Jays.

@Wulaw Horn

Remaining should be:

9 seeds: OU

14 seeds: Lipscomb, Montana, Troy, UNC Wilmington

15 seeds: Bryant, Omaha, Robert Morris, Wofford

16 seeds: Alabama St, Norfolk, SIUE and the winner of American/Mt St Mary

  • Author

I’m gone for the night. I think I only have one more team to pick- the least shitty 16 seed. 

  • Author

Assuming there isn’t a 15 seed left because someone got stupid I will take Norfolk state as my last pick. If there’s a 15 or 14 seed left for some dumb reason give me them. Otherwise Norfolk State. 

9 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Assuming there isn’t a 15 seed left because someone got stupid I will take Norfolk state as my last pick. If there’s a 15 or 14 seed left for some dumb reason give me them. Otherwise Norfolk State. 

Let's assume that @Wulaw Horn hasn't changed his mind about this and let @ztejas pick. 

Sure Wulaw can go Norfolk I'll take Alabama State.

  • Author

Norfolk was still my pick. @Prepuce of Doomis up now right. He picks for himself and Huck and we are wrapped up before lunch on Wednesday oh yea of little faith. As always! 
Hope everyone enjoys as always/ like the banter and back and forth in the thread and Huck and his numbers. 

  • Author

And we are done!  @Huckleberrycan run his numbers and tell me he’s supposed to win and I’m supposed to finish 8th. I always seem to finish 3-5th. 

I plan to recopy this because it will perpetually annoy me how I fucked up when making the blank grid, but here are the results. 

20250319_105029.thumb.jpg.e4a3ab51378839c71d5d181b38cf263a.jpg

Edited by Prepuce of Doom

Pre-Draft Team EVs

1. Gonzaga, 17.73 - Huckleberry
2. Maryland, 16.49 - HornOnTheBayou
3. Arizona, 15.92 - Huckleberry
4. Missouri, 14.88 - HornOnTheBayou
5. Kansas, 14.10 - ztejas
6. Illinois, 14.02 - Huckleberry
7. Texas Tech, 13.67 - HornOnTheBayou
8. Colorado St., 13.49 - Derka
9. Marquette, 12.27 - Prepuce of Doom
10. Iowa St., 12.11 - HornOnTheBayou
11. North Carolina/San Diego St., 12.07 - Bartles
12. BYU, 12.00 - Prepuce of Doom
13. Purdue, 11.95 - Huckleberry
14. UCLA, 11.91 - Zepol87
15. Baylor, 11.07 - Huckleberry
16. Clemson, 10.96 - ztejas
17. Michigan, 10.95 - ztejas
18. Alabama, 10.67 - Huckleberry
19. Texas A&M, 10.59 - HornOnTheBayou
20. Texas/Xavier, 10.55 - Wulaw Horn
21. Louisville, 10.45 - Prepuce of Doom
22. Wisconsin, 10.16 - Zepol87
23. Arkansas, 9.99 - Zepol87
24. St. Mary's, 9.97 - Derka
25. Virginia Commonwealth, 9.93 - Derka
26. Tennessee, 9.85 - Wulaw Horn
27. Connecticut, 9.82 - Bartles
28. Kentucky, 9.61 - Zepol87
29. Mississippi, 9.30 - Wulaw Horn
30. Oregon, 8.94 - Bartles
31. Vanderbilt, 8.90 - Bartles
32. New Mexico, 8.85 - Derka
33. Michigan St., 8.46 - Wulaw Horn
34. Auburn, 8.44 - Huckleberry
35. UC-San Diego, 8.32 - Derka
36. Utah St., 8.25 - Bartles
37. Duke, 7.69 - HornOnTheBayou
38. Mississippi St., 7.62 - Prepuce of Doom
39. Oklahoma, 7.35 - Wulaw Horn
40. St. John's, 7.32 - Wulaw Horn
41. Florida, 7.14 - ztejas
42. Creighton, 6.88 - ztejas
43. Georgia, 6.85 - ztejas
44. Houston, 6.79 - Prepuce of Doom
45. Memphis, 4.53 - Prepuce of Doom
46. McNeese St., 4.49 - ztejas
47. Liberty, 4.43 - Zepol87
48. Drake, 3.57 - Prepuce of Doom
49. Yale, 3.54 - Zepol87
50. Grand Canyon, 3.42 - Wulaw Horn
51. High Point, 3.33 - Bartles
52. Lipscomb, 2.68 - HornOnTheBayou
53. Troy, 2.20 - Derka
54. Akron, 1.59 - Derka
55. UNC-Wilmington, 1.52 - Zepol87
56. Montana, 1.37 - Bartles
57. Robert Morris, 1.29 - Bartles
58. Wofford, 1.28 - Zepol87
59. Bryant, 1.01 - Derka
60. Nebraska-Omaha, 0.96 - HornOnTheBayou
61. Norfolk St., 0.31 - Wulaw Horn
62. SIU-Edwardsville, 0.20 - Prepuce of Doom
63. American/Mount St. Mary's, 0.16 - Huckleberry
64. Alabama St./St. Francis (PA), 0.04 - ztejas
 

Current Poster EVs

1. Huckleberry - 89.97
2. HornOnTheBayou - 79.07
3. ztejas - 61.41
4. Prepuce of Doom - 57.43
5. Wulaw Horn - 56.55
6. Derka - 55.35
7. Bartles - 53.97
8. Zepol87 - 52.44

 

Thursday Matchups (Team points so far, Team EV, Poster - Probability team reaches Sweet 16)

#8 Louisville (0, 10.45, Prepuce of Doom - 14.26%) vs. #9 Creighton (0, 6.88, ztejas - 7.82%)
#4 Purdue (0, 11.95, Huckleberry - 50.58%) vs. #13 High Point (0, 3.33, Bartles - 3.72%)
#3 Wisconsin (0, 10.16, Zepol87 - 52.96%) vs. #14 Montana (0, 1.37, Bartles - 0.89%)
#1 Houston (0, 6.79, Prepuce of Doom - 66.36%) vs. #16 SIU-Edwardsville (0, 0.20, Prepuce of Doom - 0.07%)
#1 Auburn (0, 8.44, Huckleberry - 77.92%) vs. #16 Alabama St. (0, 0.03, ztejas - 0.01%)
#5 Clemson (0, 10.96, ztejas - 39.48%) vs. #12 McNeese St. (0, 4.49, ztejas - 6.21%)
#6 BYU (0, 12.00, Prepuce of Doom - 31.10%) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth (0, 9.93, Derka - 15.05%)
#8 Gonzaga (0, 17.73, Huckleberry - 24.85%) vs. #9 Georgia (0, 6.85, ztejas - 8.71%)
#2 Tennessee (0, 9.85, Wulaw Horn - 63.74%) vs. #15 Wofford (0, 1.28, Zepol87 - 0.95%)
#7 Kansas (0, 14.10, ztejas - 29.50%) vs. #10 Arkansas (0, 9.99, Zepol87 - 15.49%)
#4 Texas A&M (0, 10.59, HornOnTheBayou - 46.38%) vs. #13 Yale (0, 3.54, Zepol87 - 4.26%)
#6 Missouri (0, 14.88, HornOnTheBayou - 34.78%) vs. #11 Drake (0, 3.57, Prepuce of Doom - 3.89%)
#7 UCLA (0, 11.91, Zepol87 - 23.72%) vs. #10 Utah St. (0, 8.25, Bartles - 11.58%)
#2 St. John's (0, 7.32, Wulaw Horn - 54.42%) vs. #15 Nebraska-Omaha (0, 0.96, HornOnTheBayou - 0.58%)
#5 Michigan (0, 10.95, ztejas - 36.95%) vs. #12 UC-San Diego (0, 8.32, Derka - 12.41%)
#3 Texas Tech (0, 13.67, HornOnTheBayou - 60.03%) vs. #14 UNC-Wilmington (0, 1.52, Zepol87 - 1.31%)

 

  • Author
11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Pre-Draft Team EVs

1. Gonzaga, 17.73 - Huckleberry
2. Maryland, 16.49 - HornOnTheBayou
3. Arizona, 15.92 - Huckleberry
4. Missouri, 14.88 - HornOnTheBayou
5. Kansas, 14.10 - ztejas
6. Illinois, 14.02 - Huckleberry
7. Texas Tech, 13.67 - HornOnTheBayou
8. Colorado St., 13.49 - Derka
9. Marquette, 12.27 - Prepuce of Doom
10. Iowa St., 12.11 - HornOnTheBayou
11. North Carolina/San Diego St., 12.07 - Bartles
12. BYU, 12.00 - Prepuce of Doom
13. Purdue, 11.95 - Huckleberry
14. UCLA, 11.91 - Zepol87
15. Baylor, 11.07 - Huckleberry
16. Clemson, 10.96 - ztejas
17. Michigan, 10.95 - ztejas
18. Alabama, 10.67 - Huckleberry
19. Texas A&M, 10.59 - HornOnTheBayou
20. Texas/Xavier, 10.55 - Wulaw Horn
21. Louisville, 10.45 - Prepuce of Doom
22. Wisconsin, 10.16 - Zepol87
23. Arkansas, 9.99 - Zepol87
24. St. Mary's, 9.97 - Derka
25. Virginia Commonwealth, 9.93 - Derka
26. Tennessee, 9.85 - Wulaw Horn
27. Connecticut, 9.82 - Bartles
28. Kentucky, 9.61 - Zepol87
29. Mississippi, 9.30 - Wulaw Horn
30. Oregon, 8.94 - Bartles
31. Vanderbilt, 8.90 - Bartles
32. New Mexico, 8.85 - Derka
33. Michigan St., 8.46 - Wulaw Horn
34. Auburn, 8.44 - Huckleberry
35. UC-San Diego, 8.32 - Derka
36. Utah St., 8.25 - Bartles
37. Duke, 7.69 - HornOnTheBayou
38. Mississippi St., 7.62 - Prepuce of Doom
39. Oklahoma, 7.35 - Wulaw Horn
40. St. John's, 7.32 - Wulaw Horn
41. Florida, 7.14 - ztejas
42. Creighton, 6.88 - ztejas
43. Georgia, 6.85 - ztejas
44. Houston, 6.79 - Prepuce of Doom
45. Memphis, 4.53 - Prepuce of Doom
46. McNeese St., 4.49 - ztejas
47. Liberty, 4.43 - Zepol87
48. Drake, 3.57 - Prepuce of Doom
49. Yale, 3.54 - Zepol87
50. Grand Canyon, 3.42 - Wulaw Horn
51. High Point, 3.33 - Bartles
52. Lipscomb, 2.68 - HornOnTheBayou
53. Troy, 2.20 - Derka
54. Akron, 1.59 - Derka
55. UNC-Wilmington, 1.52 - Zepol87
56. Montana, 1.37 - Bartles
57. Robert Morris, 1.29 - Bartles
58. Wofford, 1.28 - Zepol87
59. Bryant, 1.01 - Derka
60. Nebraska-Omaha, 0.96 - HornOnTheBayou
61. Norfolk St., 0.31 - Wulaw Horn
62. SIU-Edwardsville, 0.20 - Prepuce of Doom
63. American/Mount St. Mary's, 0.16 - Huckleberry
64. Alabama St./St. Francis (PA), 0.04 - ztejas
 

So, I didn’t pick the right teams but I at least picked them in the right order more or less. Strategery! 

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Current Poster EVs

1. Huckleberry - 89.97
2. HornOnTheBayou - 79.07
3. ztejas - 61.41
4. Prepuce of Doom - 57.43
5. Wulaw Horn - 56.55
6. Derka - 55.35
7. Bartles - 53.97
8. Zepol87 - 52.44

 

This might be the most balanced post draft EV rankings ever. 

4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Current Poster EVs

1. Huckleberry - 89.97
2. HornOnTheBayou - 79.07
3. ztejas - 61.41
4. Prepuce of Doom - 57.43
5. Wulaw Horn - 56.55
6. Derka - 55.35
7. Bartles - 53.97
8. Zepol87 - 52.44

 

Right where I expected to be lol

Bulletin board material! I'll be faxing this to the hotels of my selected teams

Poster, Current Score, EV
ztejas, 26, 56.58
Zepol87, 20, 66.27
Prepuce of Doom, 18, 64.32
Huckleberry, 13, 104.69
HornOnTheBayou, 7, 69.44
Wulaw Horn, 4, 56.67
Bartles, 0, 42.56
Derka, 0, 36.88
 

Today's Matchups:

#8 Mississippi St. (0, 7.57, Prepuce of Doom - 11.03%) vs. #9 Baylor (0, 11.00, Huckleberry - 14.03%)
#2 Alabama (0, 10.46, Huckleberry - 66.66%) vs. #15 Robert Morris (0, 1.29, Bartles - 0.91%)
#3 Iowa St. (0, 11.92, HornOnTheBayou - 55.62%) vs. #14 Lipscomb (0, 2.61, HornOnTheBayou - 2.43%)
#5 Memphis (0, 4.52, Prepuce of Doom - 14.71%) vs. #12 Colorado St. (0, 13.46, Derka - 18.46%)
#1 Duke (0, 7.67, HornOnTheBayou - 74.91%) vs. #16 Mount St. Mary's (0, 0.10, Huckleberry - 0.03%)
#7 St. Mary's (0, 9.82, Derka - 19.99%) vs. #10 Vanderbilt (0, 8.79, Bartles - 12.44%)
#6 Mississippi (0, 8.71, Wulaw Horn - 22.35%) vs. #11 North Carolina (0, 13.78, Bartles - 19.60%)
#4 Maryland (0, 16.45, HornOnTheBayou - 62.12%) vs. #13 Grand Canyon (0, 3.41, Wulaw Horn - 4.71%)
#1 Florida (0, 7.13, ztejas - 75.79%) vs. #16 Norfolk St. (0, 0.31, Wulaw Horn - 0.11%)
#3 Kentucky (0, 9.48, Zepol87 - 48.13%) vs. #14 Troy (0, 2.20, Derka - 1.88%)
#7 Marquette (0, 12.20, Prepuce of Doom - 25.90%) vs. #10 New Mexico (0, 8.80, Derka - 13.29%)
#4 Arizona (0, 15.86, Huckleberry - 63.79%) vs. #13 Akron (0, 1.59, Derka - 1.70%)
#8 Connecticut (0, 9.79, Bartles - 14.56%) vs. #9 Oklahoma (0, 7.33, Wulaw Horn - 9.55%)
#6 Illinois (0, 13.93, Huckleberry - 34.38%) vs. #11 Xavier (0, 10.09, Wulaw Horn - 15.61%)
#2 Michigan St. (0, 8.40, Wulaw Horn - 60.26%) vs. #15 Bryant (0, 1.01, Derka - 0.56%)
#5 Oregon (0, 8.92, Bartles - 29.70%) vs. #12 Liberty (0, 4.43, Zepol87 - 4.81%)
 

Lol so my Kansas pick was - in theory - close to the right pick. 

What a shitty Kansas team. 

I'm about to be 0-6. Strategy of picking low seeds only works if you pick the right ones.

after i tried to take kentucky and was told they’d been drafted i suddenly looked up and realized i’d forgotten to pick any teams that will actually make it past the first weekend lol. the draft wasn’t even over and i was like, “oh damn, i’m finishing last.” lol. 

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 34, 121.10
Derka, 29, 59.92
ztejas, 27, 56.34
Zepol87, 23, 61.71
Prepuce of Doom, 18, 39.74
HornOnTheBayou, 15, 70.57
Bartles, 13, 27.51
Wulaw Horn, 12, 42.90

Saturday's Matchups:

 

#4 Purdue (4, 17.13, Huckleberry - 78.33%) vs. #12 McNeese St. (12, 18.35, ztejas - 21.67%)
#2 St. John's (2, 8.37, Wulaw Horn - 64.44%) vs. #10 Arkansas (10, 23.53, Zepol87 - 35.56%)
#4 Texas A&M (4, 11.72, HornOnTheBayou - 49.66%) vs. #5 Michigan (5, 15.29, ztejas - 50.34%)
#3 Texas Tech (3, 18.97, HornOnTheBayou - 86.56%) vs. #11 Drake (11, 15.01, Prepuce of Doom - 13.44%)
#1 Auburn (1, 8.56, Huckleberry - 81.77%) vs. #9 Creighton (9, 15.77, ztejas - 18.23%)
#3 Wisconsin (3, 10.18, Zepol87 - 52.52%) vs. #6 BYU (6, 18.45, Prepuce of Doom - 47.48%)
#1 Houston (1, 6.29, Prepuce of Doom - 61.57%) vs. #8 Gonzaga (8, 27.46, Huckleberry - 38.43%)
#2 Tennessee (2, 9.72, Wulaw Horn - 64.37%) vs. #7 UCLA (7, 18.05, Zepol87 - 35.63%)
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 44, 103.99
Zepol87, 43, 64.64
ztejas, 37, 51.44
Prepuce of Doom, 32, 51.97
Derka, 29, 59.86
HornOnTheBayou, 21, 66.17
Wulaw Horn, 16, 40.01
Bartles, 13, 27.49
 
Today's Matchups
#1 Florida (1, 6.87, ztejas - 75.63%) vs. #8 Connecticut (8, 16.37, Bartles - 24.37%)
#1 Duke (1, 7.47, HornOnTheBayou - 74.59%) vs. #9 Baylor (9, 19.73, Huckleberry - 25.41%)
#3 Kentucky (3, 9.37, Zepol87 - 49.02%) vs. #6 Illinois (6, 19.98, Huckleberry - 50.98%)
#2 Alabama (2, 10.82, Huckleberry - 68.68%) vs. #7 St. Mary's (7, 16.20, Derka - 31.32%)
#4 Maryland (4, 18.73, HornOnTheBayou - 71.09%) vs. #12 Colorado St. (12, 23.02, Derka - 28.91%)
#3 Iowa St. (3, 13.19, HornOnTheBayou - 62.42%) vs. #6 Mississippi (6, 15.25, Wulaw Horn - 37.58%)
#2 Michigan St. (2, 9.12, Wulaw Horn - 69.54%) vs. #10 New Mexico (10, 20.64, Derka - 30.46%)
#4 Arizona (4, 16.12, Huckleberry - 64.45%) vs. #5 Oregon (5, 11.12, Bartles - 35.55%)

It has now evened way out on the EV front because none of my lower seeds won their second round games. Gonzaga, Baylor, and Illinois all lost. Really needed one.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 56, 87.18
Zepol87, 49, 70.38
ztejas, 39, 52.81
Wulaw Horn, 32, 57.55
Prepuce of Doom, 32, 49.39
HornOnTheBayou, 31, 61.11
Derka, 29, 29.00
Bartles, 13, 13.00

I will work on the Sweet 16 forecast and get that out later today or tomorrow.

Edited by Huckleberry

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)

Huckleberry - 41.53% (10,468)
Zepol87 - 19.34% (8,934)
HornOnTheBayou - 16.31% (3,159)
Wulaw Horn - 7.57% (3,751)
ztejas - 6.88% (2,821)
Prepuce of Doom - 6.52% (3,172)
Tie - 1.84% (463)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)

  • Author
36 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)

Huckleberry - 41.53% (10,468)
Zepol87 - 19.34% (8,934)
HornOnTheBayou - 16.31% (3,159)
Wulaw Horn - 7.57% (3,751)
ztejas - 6.88% (2,821)
Prepuce of Doom - 6.52% (3,172)
Tie - 1.84% (463)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)

And I’m in the same spot I always am- having an outside punchers chance that won’t hit in the sweet 16. 

12 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)

Huckleberry - 41.53% (10,468)
Zepol87 - 19.34% (8,934)
HornOnTheBayou - 16.31% (3,159)
Wulaw Horn - 7.57% (3,751)
ztejas - 6.88% (2,821)
Prepuce of Doom - 6.52% (3,172)
Tie - 1.84% (463)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)

Ill Be Back Jim Carrey GIF

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