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Featured Replies

13 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

366 hours out, so almost 0% chance this plays out, but posting because of boobies. 

image.thumb.png.0dd6cf2ccd945dec4974e73353fa4555.png

 

Oh hai GFS

514691235_3081694941978596_2685553538365521875_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p235x350_tt6&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=i8XM1w2zrhMQ7kNvwGUBnhf&_nc_oc=AdlES1C84xLBbP6h30zjmml9lfB8FPCBBtpMgZQ42FCaeKZ5AUaSBzGbq1hPxsaeQ1w&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfWC5rm6oi6bEqqpwetjnAmqIZW3GRLV1NTSTEXzmDMOCw&oe=689A6F13

Remember when NOLA was wiped out in June?  Me either...

515017226_3081694521978638_2167493212783930100_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p480x480_tt6&_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=_xB_ee56JYAQ7kNvwHvX5pg&_nc_oc=Adn5xQcjpoUHbnjXsPA162pYdHD-WNiP7EtQj3l4Q01xLfwsHeS4oQU0j8JTeHfMcvQ&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfXWxiad9qcmLWqlULSiPNRcritFyZLWrmmUCb5jg__RMw&oe=689A6FCB

On 8/8/2025 at 1:46 PM, Rip76 said:

😳

 

IMG_0054.jpeg

image.gif.fb597331abc8b0d0a36312e386770051.gif

 

Is it a bad sign when a weather system is barely off the coast of Africa and has already reached tropical storm strength? 

On 8/9/2025 at 8:35 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

I had two dead trees finally taken down Friday.  Bring on the ruckus.

Can you describe the ruckus sir?

On 8/7/2025 at 9:29 AM, texasdago said:

Oh hai GFS

514691235_3081694941978596_2685553538365521875_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p235x350_tt6&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=i8XM1w2zrhMQ7kNvwGUBnhf&_nc_oc=AdlES1C84xLBbP6h30zjmml9lfB8FPCBBtpMgZQ42FCaeKZ5AUaSBzGbq1hPxsaeQ1w&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfWC5rm6oi6bEqqpwetjnAmqIZW3GRLV1NTSTEXzmDMOCw&oe=689A6F13

Remember when NOLA was wiped out in June?  Me either...

515017226_3081694521978638_2167493212783930100_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p480x480_tt6&_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=_xB_ee56JYAQ7kNvwHvX5pg&_nc_oc=Adn5xQcjpoUHbnjXsPA162pYdHD-WNiP7EtQj3l4Q01xLfwsHeS4oQU0j8JTeHfMcvQ&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfXWxiad9qcmLWqlULSiPNRcritFyZLWrmmUCb5jg__RMw&oe=689A6FCB

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at here or what this is trying to say. But I assume the color of each X corresponds to the chart in the upper left corner which indicates the probability that a TS would form? And almost all of them are purple, blue, or green, meaning they was less than 50% chance anything would form. Does that really indicate a "false positive"? What am I missing here?

It is called forecasting. It is why sometimes weather weasels get it wrong. Mother Nature is a bitch and she loves tossing a dirty curve ball. 

Yeah, lets blame the watchers for overwatching. 

On 8/8/2025 at 12:46 PM, Rip76 said:

😳

 

IMG_0054.jpeg

4 potential tropical systems

 

 

In a row???  How does the Atlantic take the length. 

2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at here or what this is trying to say. But I assume the color of each X corresponds to the chart in the upper left corner which indicates the probability that a TS would form? And almost all of them are purple, blue, or green, meaning they was less than 50% chance anything would form. Does that really indicate a "false positive"? What am I missing here?

Its called the GFS crying wolf.  People love to post individual model runs or other scary pictures as clickbait and to drive engagement.  When someone posts, "hey, look what's happening in two weeks", no one knows.  Its too far our to be remotely accurate.  

https://theeyewall.com/long-range-forecast-scareicane-season-has-arrived-for-the-eastern-gulf/

16 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Models have Erin as a strong fish storm. And I’m OK with that. 

Erin Andrews: 10 Sexy Outfits She Should Wear on Dancing With the Stars

3 hours ago, mrlasky said:

I'd like to peep through her eyewall

Fify

  • Author

GFS has been crap most of the year. Socials love to post that one the most for that reason. #Showmetheicon

24 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

GFS has been crap most of the year. Socials love to post that one the most for that reason. #Showmetheicon

Clickbait

98L

First model puts it at Mexico/Texas border.

IMG_0103.jpeg

From the Eyewall:

Invest 98L is going to track almost straight northwest over the next 24 to 30 hours. This should come ashore in Texas by Friday evening. Any development will be lower-end and rather disjointed. In other words, we could see a sloppy tropical depression come out of this, but we probably won't see a named storm.

 

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea8e1624-2fcf-45f7-ab17-929c14d2f49c_1024x724.png

Up to 40%

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

23 hours ago, Rip76 said:

98L

First model puts it at Mexico/Texas border.

IMG_0103.jpeg

Every one of these "5 percent," "10 percent" that pop up in the Gulf of Mexico turns into a named storm. Not sure why they even pretend as if there's a chance they won't develop.

I believe in this case it’s just running out of time.  Also it seems if there is any sort of mid level spin it’s racing to the coast and leaving the convection to its north behind.  It looks as if the convection is diminishing a bit today.

Now if some sort of low forms under the convection further north, we may have something.

Edited by Rip76

6 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Every one of these "5 percent," "10 percent" that pop up in the Gulf of Mexico turns into a named storm. Not sure why they even pretend as if there's a chance they won't develop.

Are those just staffing numbers?

17 hours ago, Rip76 said:

I believe in this case it’s just running out of time.  Also it seems if there is any sort of mid level spin it’s racing to the coast and leaving the convection to its north behind.  It looks as if the convection is diminishing a bit today.

Now if some sort of low forms under the convection further north, we may have something.

Hurricane Aggy, you say? The fine folks in College Station were born ready.

56293c358f411.webp.29a4702dc2afffa43065d8f41021698b.webp

On 8/11/2025 at 12:31 PM, Js1 said:

4 potential tropical systems

 

 

In a row???  How does the Atlantic take the length. 

a372qf.jpg

It seems like its on an optimal path for a hurricane of this magnitude. No real population centers in danger, correct? 

 

Correct. Bermuda might catch some tropical storm winds, given the large size of the wind field.   And there is always enough error in a long-term forecast to keep Bermuda on its toes

35 minutes ago, Blotto said:

It seems like its on an optimal path for a hurricane of this magnitude. No real population centers in danger, correct? 

 

Why do you hate the poor fish 

1 hour ago, Bert Orange said:

That eye. So perfect

Wonder what the wall height is? I know some daredevil pilot thought “hmmmm wonder if I can climb out”. 

Those videos from inside the eye always creep me out for some reason. 

Here it is August 18th and we’ve avoided a major storm in the Gulf with nothing in the modeling to suggest anything developing this week.

If we could get through the next two weeks without a named storm, that would have to be a record of some sorts.  

Edited by Nueces River Rat

  • Popular Post
Here it is August 18th and we’ve avoided a major storm in the Gulf with nothing in the modeling to suggest anything developing this week.
If we could get through the next two weeks without a named storm, that would have to be a record of some sorts.  

I’ll bet you talk about the pitcher having a no hitter during a baseball game. Damn you….
6 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

42 years ago today.

 

Alicia.jpg

Man.  Remember that one so well.  Was supposed to be the first day of school for us.  Went outside in the eye with my old man while he patched a couple of spots on the roof that had taken some hits.  Fortunately/unfortunately, our old cedar shingle roof was so waterlogged that the shingles were heavy, so they mostly didn't get blown off.  No power for three days.  Otherwise, we came out ok.

2 hours ago, txduck87 said:


I’ll bet you talk about the pitcher having a no hitter during a baseball game. Damn you….

Yea and then in the 9th the base hit....   True story!   

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