March 19Mar 19 Looks like Austin real estate is dropping the fastest which is quite surprising. Also, if people are leaving California, why are prices rising?
March 19Mar 19 19 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said: Looks like Austin real estate is dropping the fastest which is quite surprising. Also, if people are leaving California, why are prices rising? AI.
March 19Mar 19 California can’t keep up supply worth a damn. Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein have a new book called ‘Abundance’ coming out talking about how regulation is strangling urban growth.
March 19Mar 19 California still has more wealth coming in. Don’t be fooled by who is leaving California. It’s not all tech bros going to Celina and Katy.
March 19Mar 19 Author 1 hour ago, We’reTexas said: AI. Bundy? Second source: https://constructioncoverage.com/research/hottest-real-estate-markets-us
March 19Mar 19 13 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said: Bundy? Second source: https://constructioncoverage.com/research/hottest-real-estate-markets-us Ay-Eye. Nvidia + FAANG popping off over the last two years have the Peninsula real estate market back to record levels of stupid. I also recommend “Abundance”, a big focus is why so many blue state cities are in the left column and red state cities are in the right column.
March 19Mar 19 News: it’s getting really hot in Texas and Arizona. And Florida weather is not exactly San Diego either.
March 19Mar 19 Author 17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said: News: it’s getting really hot in Texas and Arizona. And Florida weather is not exactly San Diego either. Everything I’ve been hearing is red states rule and everyone is excited to leave commiefornia and New York. No cr
March 19Mar 19 I don't know about y'all, but I would love to live in California if I could afford it.
March 19Mar 19 2 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said: Bundy? Second source: https://constructioncoverage.com/research/hottest-real-estate-markets-us People are figuring out how awesome Chicago is, and I haven't relocated there yet!
March 19Mar 19 2 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said: People are figuring out how awesome Chicago is, and I haven't relocated there yet! Truth. I have been hearing about more people moving there but hadn’t seen data supporting it as a trend until now. Great bang for your buck if you can deal with the cold. I personally love Chi.
March 19Mar 19 Author 17 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said: People are figuring out how awesome Chicago is, and I haven't relocated there yet! I went so far as to look at homes there a couple years ago. Bomb diggity. I wouldn't rule it out but I'll ride out this California thing for now
March 20Mar 20 7 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said: Everything I’ve been hearing is red states rule and everyone is excited to leave commiefornia and New York. No cr Or maybe it’s supply and demand. Rational post up above partly explains why CA housing is so expensive, but y’all keep pumping that confirmation bias in here.
March 20Mar 20 Author 7 hours ago, Newdoc said: Or maybe it’s supply and demand. Rational post up above partly explains why CA housing is so expensive, but y’all keep pumping that confirmation bias in here. The south has risen
March 20Mar 20 I bet the ending of work from home is playing a factor. People are going to have to move back closer to the office. It might not be as prominent yet as it will become
March 20Mar 20 WTF is going on with Cleveland? #3 on the first list. Course I guess if you start at a low point your percentage increase looks impressive.
March 21Mar 21 Housing prices are dropping across Texas over the past 3-4 months. Inventory also seems to be a tad up. Its def the best conditions ive seen for buyers in Texas since pre-covid
March 21Mar 21 I would have expected higher interest rates to have caused price drops everywhere by now
March 24Mar 24 LOL at Chicago being a hidden gem. I know some folks that moved down here, and they still marvel at how much more house they can afford in Texas. There’s always a trade off. Californians are quite odd, but I’ll agree with the posters above. If money wasn’t a concern, and I didn’t have to interact with my neighbors, I’d live on top of a hill in Carmel.
March 24Mar 24 On 3/19/2025 at 2:35 PM, Im_smarter_then_you said: Looks like Austin real estate is dropping the fastest which is quite surprising. Also, if people are leaving California, why are prices rising?
March 24Mar 24 Author On 3/20/2025 at 1:12 PM, Judge Roybeanbag said: WTF is going on with Cleveland? #3 on the first list. Course I guess if you start at a low point your percentage increase looks impressive. Lebron left.
March 25Mar 25 On 3/19/2025 at 7:35 PM, Im_smarter_then_you said: Looks like Austin real estate is dropping the fastest which is quite surprising. Also, if people are leaving California, why are prices rising? Kinda helps when you build 5-10x the supply.
March 25Mar 25 Author 21 minutes ago, 52-80 said: Kinda helps when you build 5-10x the supply. Yea. Lots of environmentalist types out here. Plus we don’t have as much flat land
March 25Mar 25 1 hour ago, Im_smarter_then_you said: Yea. Lots of NIMBYs who pretend to be environmentalist types out here. FIFY
April 2Apr 2 On 3/24/2025 at 3:01 PM, Im_smarter_then_you said: Get something on the lake for cheap My friend's grandfather had a house on Lake Road in Bay Village. It was about 2 acres with the backyard being cliffside on Lake Erie. It had a staircase down to the beach. It was completely badass. After he died, they sold the lot for $8M and the house was torn down for a new construction.
April 2Apr 2 I’ve mentioned this several times before: 1. Texas, and Austin, have much more new build land available than many other locations, especially California. This keeps prices from extreme increases, usually. 2. But Dbeasy, Austin shot up during Covid. Yes, and this was an anomaly. While the Austin real estate market is generally healthy, there was a feeding frenzy due to big money coming in and buying up housing. Opendoor, Blackrock, etc. And, work from home led to a surge in Austin from people coming from high real estate priced markets. Both of those things have run their course. In addition, the extreme politics of the state is definitely affecting migration here. Prices went way too high too fast, and they’ve been correcting since. 3. Tech is one of the main employment and housing drivers in Austin. Austin has always been a secondary location for most tech companies with significant employment. When the economy falters, like now, Austin gets cut harder and faster than core locations. Dallas does too, but they are starting to get more self sufficient. Long term the Austin market is fine. But it’s impossible to forecast the near term because Austin has not dealt with a serious recession since 2008, and even then Texas didn’t not get hit hard in real estate during that crash.
April 2Apr 2 Author 17 minutes ago, CooterBrown said: My friend's grandfather had a house on Lake Road in Bay Village. It was about 2 acres with the backyard being cliffside on Lake Erie. It had a staircase down to the beach. It was completely badass. After he died, they sold the lot for $8M and the house was torn down for a new construction. I just looked some homes up on Lake Erie. 800k ish. Let me look some more
April 2Apr 2 33 minutes ago, Dbeasy said: I’ve mentioned this several times before: 1. Texas, and Austin, have much more new build land available than many other locations, especially California. This keeps prices from extreme increases, usually. 2. But Dbeasy, Austin shot up during Covid. Yes, and this was an anomaly. While the Austin real estate market is generally healthy, there was a feeding frenzy due to big money coming in and buying up housing. Opendoor, Blackrock, etc. And, work from home led to a surge in Austin from people coming from high real estate priced markets. Both of those things have run their course. In addition, the extreme politics of the state is definitely affecting migration here. Prices went way too high too fast, and they’ve been correcting since. 3. Tech is one of the main employment and housing drivers in Austin. Austin has always been a secondary location for most tech companies with significant employment. When the economy falters, like now, Austin gets cut harder and faster than core locations. Dallas does too, but they are starting to get more self sufficient. Long term the Austin market is fine. But it’s impossible to forecast the near term because Austin has not dealt with a serious recession since 2008, and even then Texas didn’t not get hit hard in real estate during that crash. Every point of this seems spot-on to me. Esp. #3. In fact, when you look at markets with the biggest declines...many/most of those markets were among the "hottest" in the 2020-2023 timeframe. Insane outside-normal-market-range increases in price are now being corrected. And yes, the other factors as well, including still-inflated housing costs (what once attracted many people to Austin (housing prices, which were lower than where they were coming from) is now the thing that causes more to shy away (because Austin is not a bargain). After this current correction, Austin will be....fine on the housing price front. We are not likely to see any great run-up in prices like we did in 2020-23, and we could well see more negative pressure from a recession, I think. But all-in-all, I think it's a good bet that we'll end up in the middle of the road as far as rate of price growth.
April 3Apr 3 Author 21 hours ago, Brisketexan said: Every point of this seems spot-on to me. Esp. #3. In fact, when you look at markets with the biggest declines...many/most of those markets were among the "hottest" in the 2020-2023 timeframe. Insane outside-normal-market-range increases in price are now being corrected. And yes, the other factors as well, including still-inflated housing costs (what once attracted many people to Austin (housing prices, which were lower than where they were coming from) is now the thing that causes more to shy away (because Austin is not a bargain). After this current correction, Austin will be....fine on the housing price front. We are not likely to see any great run-up in prices like we did in 2020-23, and we could well see more negative pressure from a recession, I think. But all-in-all, I think it's a good bet that we'll end up in the middle of the road as far as rate of price growth. Yep. This is why we're seeing the pullback on the sunbelt cities. They rose the fastest. I think Dallas may be pricier than Austin now. But agree Austin will always be fine
July 8Jul 8 On 4/2/2025 at 2:16 PM, Dbeasy said: I’ve mentioned this several times before: 1. Texas, and Austin, have much more new build land available than many other locations, especially California. This keeps prices from extreme increases, usually. 2. But Dbeasy, Austin shot up during Covid. Yes, and this was an anomaly. While the Austin real estate market is generally healthy, there was a feeding frenzy due to big money coming in and buying up housing. Opendoor, Blackrock, etc. And, work from home led to a surge in Austin from people coming from high real estate priced markets. Both of those things have run their course. In addition, the extreme politics of the state is definitely affecting migration here. Prices went way too high too fast, and they’ve been correcting since. 3. Tech is one of the main employment and housing drivers in Austin. Austin has always been a secondary location for most tech companies with significant employment. When the economy falters, like now, Austin gets cut harder and faster than core locations. Dallas does too, but they are starting to get more self sufficient. Long term the Austin market is fine. But it’s impossible to forecast the near term because Austin has not dealt with a serious recession since 2008, and even then Texas didn’t not get hit hard in real estate during that crash. in many parts of Austin this time around is harder than anytime since 1986-1987. 2008-2009 was nothing really, a year or two of basically a pause but very little declines.
July 9Jul 9 On 4/2/2025 at 2:16 PM, Dbeasy said: I’ve mentioned this several times before: 1. Texas, and Austin, have much more new build land available than many other locations, especially California. This keeps prices from extreme increases, usually. 2. But Dbeasy, Austin shot up during Covid. Yes, and this was an anomaly. While the Austin real estate market is generally healthy, there was a feeding frenzy due to big money coming in and buying up housing. Opendoor, Blackrock, etc. And, work from home led to a surge in Austin from people coming from high real estate priced markets. Both of those things have run their course. In addition, the extreme politics of the state is definitely affecting migration here. Prices went way too high too fast, and they’ve been correcting since. 3. Tech is one of the main employment and housing drivers in Austin. Austin has always been a secondary location for most tech companies with significant employment. When the economy falters, like now, Austin gets cut harder and faster than core locations. Dallas does too, but they are starting to get more self sufficient. Long term the Austin market is fine. But it’s impossible to forecast the near term because Austin has not dealt with a serious recession since 2008, and even then Texas didn’t not get hit hard in real estate during that crash. I felt this. My house in Hyde Park is renting for way less now vs 2+ years ago. Some of it is self-induced as I didn't want to shop it and just wanted it rented but still saw lots of pricing pressure even in "desirable" neighborhoods.
July 9Jul 9 This might be better placed on the real estate/mortgage thread, but I've got multiple prospective buyers terminating their searches due to employment anxiety and agents I work with are telling me they are seeing it, too. Having lived through multiple bust cycles in real estate previously, this, not interest rates, is usually where things start to get shitty.
July 9Jul 9 Just a reminder that in every recession, employment is the LAST to go. That’s why real estate markets usually see a 12-36 month delay from when the economy heads south. Right now the economy is being steered into a recession by administration policies, but the good news is that because the spending bill is so fiscally irresponsible, a recession could be delayed or avoided by simply addressing all the other activities of the administration that are recession oriented: tariffs, uncertainty of decision making, foreign policy blunders, etc. Of course long term the country is even more fucked, but for the next 3 years they can just push the rock to the next administration…
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.