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Natural gas taketh. Natural gas giveth. Nice open to this week’s session 🤠

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    My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Natural gas taketh. Natural gas giveth. Nice open to this week’s session 🤠

No joke.  That’s why you don’t hold natty over the weekend 

13 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

No joke.  That’s why you don’t hold natty over the weekend 

-15% now.  $0.45 down.  i imagine lots of people are getting blown out.

i actually sold (painfully) into the rally on friday, was holding short over the weekend, so it was a nice surprise for me :)

at the moment position is long at 2.644, trying to get a reversal playing with house money

I know of one company that has two LNG facilities planned to go live in the next 4 years…they are out there.

Golden Pass LNG down near Sabine Lake is pretty far along in construction and supposed to come online sometime next year. 

Sempra is supposed to be making a final investment decision on its proposed Port Arthur LNG facility sometime this month. Design process on the expansion of their Cameron LNG facility should be complete this summer.

Edited by Storm the Field

I know my employer (ET) is converting our Lake Charles LNG location to export. Not sure when that's supposed to crank up. 

TXOGA messaging today at the Capitol kinda surprised me.  

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

TXOGA messaging today at the Capitol kinda surprised me.  

Just curious - what surprised you?

15 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

Just curious - what surprised you?

He’s not. He just wanted everyone here to know he was privy to Capitol goings-on, as if TXOGA messaging at the Texas Capitol is somehow relevant to this thread. 

Sometimes TXOGA talks about production and water and logistics and midstream.  No reason to get butthurt dude.  They just took a much more wholistic approach to the media and non-involved legislators (or not as involved from years past I should say).  But yes, continue.  You're long on crude.  We all are.  Fascinating.  

On 3/7/2023 at 9:14 PM, hornmpa96 said:

Just curious - what surprised you?

Anyway, it was just a lot more discussion of renewables than usual.  EV's, Electric kingpins, and solar.  Beyond usual lip service.  Actual partnerships and infrastructure discussions.  Just didn't expect that is all.  I think the panels are probably available for online viewing at this point.  But the in-Capitol talks also featured a lot more electric talk than I anticipated with the cameras off.  

Came out last night, good read:  https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/europe-wont-be-dependent-russian-oil-and-gas-again-official-says-204398

I guess I am late to this, but just seeing Chesapeake sold off their Eagle Ford assets to INEOS for $1.4 billion. That doesn’t give me confidence that my current employer won’t do the same. I am used to project life and just wanted to stretch this until the end of the year. End of next year would be amazing, but I doubt it.

1 hour ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I guess I am late to this, but just seeing Chesapeake sold off their Eagle Ford assets to INEOS for $1.4 billion. That doesn’t give me confidence that my current employer won’t do the same. I am used to project life and just wanted to stretch this until the end of the year. End of next year would be amazing, but I doubt it.


CHK is going back to 2006 and going all in on gas and getting out of liquids. If your company hasn’t stated the same I wouldn’t be as concerned. 

16 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

Anyone go to CERA week and have any feedback or unique experience? It was last week right?

SS in interviews with Sullivan effectively said the same thing I’ve been reading and posting for a year now. Which is validating. 

1 hour ago, Porterhouse said:

SS in interviews with Sullivan effectively said the same thing I’ve been reading and posting for a year now. Which is validating. 

SS = ?

Sullivan =  Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) Alaska?

4 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

SS = ?

Sullivan =  Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) Alaska?

Scott Sheffield and Brian Sullivan 

On 3/12/2023 at 8:04 PM, Patricio Swayze said:

I guess I am late to this, but just seeing Chesapeake sold off their Eagle Ford assets to INEOS for $1.4 billion. That doesn’t give me confidence that my current employer won’t do the same. I am used to project life and just wanted to stretch this until the end of the year. End of next year would be amazing, but I doubt it.

That seems pretty low. CHK had some fairly decent Eagle Ford acreage. 
 

I assume they’re all in on the Marcellus and Haynesville?

13 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

That seems pretty low. CHK had some fairly decent Eagle Ford acreage. 

I thought so as well, compared to other recent deals, at least on a simple $/acre metric. Haven't done a deep dive to see how much actual daily production involved.

Marathon's deal to buy Ensign's EF acreage was $3B cash for 130K acres.

Baytex's deal to buy Ranger's EF acreage was  $2.5B cash (plus $650M debt assumption) for 162K acres.

Ineos Chesapeake was $1.4B cash for 172K acres.

That seems pretty low. CHK had some fairly decent Eagle Ford acreage. 
 
I assume they’re all in on the Marcellus and Haynesville?

Not sure. But where I am at, we are putting more into EF than Marcellus. Although we are about to drop a rig.
32 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

What’s going on…. WTI under $68 this morning?

Energy Department said last year they planned to refill the SPR around the $70 range. Oil had found decent support there since then, bouncing up when it touched that low. 
 

today…ouch

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

What’s going on…. WTI under $68 this morning?


Holy cow ... cheaper than it's been since late Dec., 2021.

Let's see it show up at the pumps, please.

Yeah, crude is getting clowned hard.

We will see if it sticks around. Happy to see one less pressure point on inflation.

On 3/17/2023 at 9:20 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, crude is getting clowned hard.

We will see if it sticks around. Happy to see one less pressure point on inflation.

It won’t. We will gradually get back to $80 and then break out, probably in summer, in a big way. 

7 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

It won’t. We will gradually get back to $80 and then break out, probably in summer, in a big way. 

Not according to Goldman Sachs, today, at least.

Quote

Goldman Sachs scraps its forecast of $100-a-barrel oil prices. Analysts at the bank, which had been especially bullish on oil prices, cited fears of a global recession and the recent stock market volatility in cutting their prediction. The Brent crude global benchmark has fallen nearly 20 percent over the past two weeks and currently trades at about $70 a barrel.

 

Edited by HamsterHookah

GS forecast for Brent is now only $94, and $97 for 2024..

Edited by SaucyJack

59 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

GS forecast for Brent is now only $94, and $97 for 2024..

So like $85/$90 or TI?  Yeah, that’s not “scrapping” a $100 forecast. That’s reducing it by 15%. 

I really wish I had started keeping track of GS's crude price forecasts vs the actual outcome over the years.  I believe a handsome sum could have been made by trading the opposite of what they predict.  I don't know how bad they've been, but I'd wager it's worse than a coin flip.

On 3/7/2023 at 6:07 PM, BabaBooey said:

I know my employer (ET) is converting our Lake Charles LNG location to export. Not sure when that's supposed to crank up. 

TBD but most of the consulting firms (WoodMac, S&P, etc.) have Lake Charles coming online 2028ish or so.

I would love to know the mindset of a Haynesville operator, with high service costs and an extended period of low price. 

I would love to know the mindset of a Haynesville operator, with high service costs and an extended period of low price. 

I thought you had assets there?

Have some clients in the Haynesville. Some are definitely scaling back their rig schedules (from what they were planning 6 months ago), if not pausing entirely. Some are just drilling what DUC's they need to keep leases alive. They've been operating under low natty prices for years, so play it conservatively regardless.

Edited by Storm the Field

Have some clients in the Haynesville. Some are definitely scaling back their rig schedules (from what they were planning 6 months ago), if not pausing entirely. Some are just drilling what DUC's they need to keep leases alive. They've been operating under low natty prices for years, so play it conservatively regardless.

Sounds like my company in the EF. Dropping a rig next month. Bought some DUCs and might just flip them.
5 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:


I thought you had assets there?

No. Royalties in OK and WI in EF. 

Continental Resources is preparing to drill 22 wells in “our” North Dakota spacing (Montrail & McKenzie Counties). 
Spud in is scheduled for August. 
Supposedly a $200 million investment.
Guess we will see some more royalty $$ by early next year. 
 

Edited by Armybrat

2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Continental Resources is preparing to drill 22 wells in “our” North Dakota spacing (Montrail & McKenzie Counties). 
Spud in is scheduled for August. 
Supposedly a $200 million investment.
Guess we will see some more royalty $$ by early next year. 
 

Spudding in August?  I presume you wouldn’t see increased $ until at least August ‘24. 

Depends, I guess, if they can get the frickin’ fracin” done in a reasonable time.

4 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Continental Resources is preparing to drill 22 wells in “our” North Dakota spacing (Montrail & McKenzie Counties). 
Spud in is scheduled for August. 
Supposedly a $200 million investment.
Guess we will see some more royalty $$ by early next year. 
 

Goddamned army. I love and hate you at the same time. I hope some great grandkids are entering the work force debt free. 

10 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Depends, I guess, if they can get the frickin’ fracin” done in a reasonable time.

I own Continental royalties. They take awhile to get in pay. Even if all 22 wells come on production before year-end (unlikely), they’re still gonna wait about 120 days to pay you. And with 22 wells there’s probably at least 5 units there. Your cash flow will grow in chunks, probably, over the course of ‘24. 

Yes, that’s what they did several years ago after the other dozen wells were completed in our other mineral spacing. 
We have just a very small share of family mineral acreage that has been under Lake Sakakawea since the 1950s. 
Great Uncle Frank farmed about 260 acres (in two parts) by the Missouri River for the first half of the 20th Century. 
Good thing the Feds forgot to take the mineral rights when they eminent domained his place to put in that lake. 
The smaller part of his farm area was the first to be drilled several years ago, now Continental is just getting around to drilling the larger part.

I might buy a big hat if it pays off.

Edited by Armybrat

The longer it takes to get in pay, the better for you. My personal opinion with respect to where prices are going. Good for you, though. 

Yeah, we are in no rush at all. This windfall has not changed our lifestyle. We spread it around among our kids & grandkids….and tip service people well.

Gaining money on oil and losing money on gas is the perfect risk-neutral balanced portfolio 👨‍🍳🤌

On 3/2/2023 at 11:55 AM, Storm the Field said:

Freeport is finally back up and running. Startup on their 2nd unit has commenced and they just filed for approval to begin restart operations on the 3rd unit. Should be back to taking in over 1.5Bcf/day soon.

FqN8hl_WYAYhT68?format=jpg&name=medium

 

 

35 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

 

For the life of me I can’t understand why this was the catalyst for tremendously low gas prices. Rather I don’t understand why we are still so low. 

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