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17 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

Sadly, I think this is just the beginning. Going to be a rough couple of years in Houston. 

What's old is new again. Thus was it ever in O&G. 

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How much hiring actually took place between mid 2016 and now? I mean rig crews, truck drivers and the like got hired like crazy in the Permian but did anyone go bonkers on office staff after the blood-letting of 2015-2017?

7 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How much hiring actually took place between mid 2016 and now? I mean rig crews, truck drivers and the like got hired like crazy in the Permian but did anyone go bonkers on office staff after the blood-letting of 2015-2017?

I doubt too much in the upstream sector, there was more focus on efficiency. But the capital restraints in 2020 forward are going to be much more severe than the 2015-2017 downturn. There were still plenty of people willing to lend back then against some very optimistic reserve reports. Those lenders are getting burned now and are not going to repeat those mistakes in the near term. 

9 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

I doubt too much in the upstream sector, there was more focus on efficiency. But the capital restraints in 2020 forward are going to be much more severe than the 2015-2017 downturn. There were still plenty of people willing to lend back then against some very optimistic reserve reports. Those lenders are getting burned now and are not going to repeat those mistakes in the near term. 

We’re a couple of tomahawk cruise missile attacks away from a surge in oil prices. Every banker and his dog will forget every lesson learned since the beginning of the O&G industry if oil hits $75. They always do.  Always.

But I agree that I would not want to be working for a N America land-centric small independent today. About the only thing worse would be working for a service company. 

3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We’re a couple of tomahawk cruise missile attacks away from a surge in oil prices. Every banker and his dog will forget every lesson learned since the beginning of the O&G industry if oil hits $75. They always do.  Always.

$125k / year to fill up trucks, wash them and keep air in the tires !!!!

3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We’re a couple of tomahawk cruise missile attacks away from a surge in oil prices. Every banker and his dog will forget every lesson learned since the beginning of the O&G industry if oil hits $75. They always do.  Always.

Perhaps, but even back at $100 oil, most shale drillers never achieved free cash flow.  

Fucking hell.   So now more people with less of a gap to compete against.   Out since 2015.  Looks like I am out permanently. 

Fucking hell.   So now more people with less of a gap to compete against.   Out since 2015.  Looks like I am out permanently. 
What did you move on to?

I know a guy that lost his job during the BHP / BP buy out. He was one of the VERY few BHP employees that BP wanted to interview, but the position was in Denver. He passed not having a true feel for the job market. It took him much longer than expected to find another job, at a huge pay cut. 

o/g economy is getting hammered 

Yes but how many showed themselves being self funding after three years that never accomplished that? What this period of spending within cf is going to show is that the well results arent what they project and they won't be able to even hold production flat.

14 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:
15 hours ago, Nivek said:
Fucking hell.   So now more people with less of a gap to compete against.   Out since 2015.  Looks like I am out permanently. 

What did you move on to?

Mr. Mom mostly.   Scared to move because of how fickle the industry is and my wife works  I would do it as a test run though.  I am still doing my part in staying current and reading more about different facets of the industry, I mostly want to get back to work.  Outside the industry it seemed that my O&G background might as well have been a prison sentence.

Edited by Nivek

I've got some extra flannel shirts Nivek.

Just PM me your address.

I've been out of the oil field for almost a year now and I have no interest in going back.  That being said, I'd take a job in the oil field just to be working again. 

3 hours ago, Nivek said:

Mr. Mom mostly.   Scared to move because of how fickle the industry is and my wife works  I would do it as a test run though.  I am still doing my part in staying current and reading more about different facets of the industry, I mostly want to get back to work.  Outside the industry it seemed that my O&G background might as well have been a prison sentence.

 

what are you looking for ?

 

On 1/11/2020 at 12:41 PM, tx 3 putt said:

 

what are you looking for ?

 

Anything at this point.  I was in borehole geophysics.   I enjoyed the work, but would have preferred to have landed in dev. geology or petrophysics.  

Watching my CHK position be like...

giphy.gif

Edited by Cajun

1 hour ago, Cajun said:

Watching my CHK position be like...

giphy.gif

I feel ya. I sold last week, DNR looking good today. 

Yeah, I've got a Do Not Resuscitate on my CHK too.

 

CHK to me is like Alabama in that Gandolfini scene from True Romance.

I just keep hoping she has a corkscrew...

corkscrew.jpg

In today's latest edition of "it sucks to be in the O&G service business."

McDermott files for Chapter 11.

Halliburton reports a $1.7B loss for 2019.

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

$1.88, alright. See ya CHK. 

Natty is keeping me up at night.   Uggh.  

Woulda done better putting my cash into this...

0001820020077_0_A1C1_1200.png

 

Edited by Cajun

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

o/g continues to be hammered 

Better applications for the wreath fund?   Claymores? 

6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

o/g continues to be hammered 

Too much Coronavirus 

  • 2 weeks later...

Does anyone know anything about Hoegh LNP Partners? Positive or negative thoughts appreciated.

On 2/2/2020 at 9:32 AM, Dbeasy said:

Does anyone know anything about Hoegh LNP Partners? Positive or negative thoughts appreciated.

I would avoid LNG all together, they are about to suffer the same fate as shale producers in the US. The world is awash with natural gas and LNG worldwide continues to grow which is dropping LNG futures rapidly. As soon as that spread collapses and the term on the contracts expire, american LNG companies are going to be sitting on 10's of billions of $s worth of worthless refineries with no product to sell (at a profit). 

6 hours ago, Lagunamadre said:

I would avoid LNG all together, they are about to suffer the same fate as shale producers in the US. The world is awash with natural gas and LNG worldwide continues to grow which is dropping LNG futures rapidly. As soon as that spread collapses and the term on the contracts expire, american LNG companies are going to be sitting on 10's of billions of $s worth of worthless refineries with no product to sell (at a profit). 

 

same is about to happen in the ethylene market, very soon 

16 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

same is about to happen in the ethylene market, very soon 

Yes, NGL upside on gas are fading. Our check stubs are already reflecting that. 

you work in NGL ?

i keep saying I need to get out to Cheniere and Golden Pass (rotating equipment here)

Thanks. I’m evaluating an active fund manager. 

Would this be considered a new downturn or a continuation of the previous one?

Having a hoot here.  I'm getting out tomorrow before Dan Patrick's lunatic fringe rolls into town.  We've put together a package between BP, a mid-size operator in Panhandle/Western Oklahoma and what I understand to be the 4th largest medical endowment in the Western Hemisphere.  They all make for strange bedfellows.  I get weird looks from everybody until we put on our matching vests. Then shit gets legit.  

Those poor bastards. I hope it's not the mid size operator I think it is.

Relax. Deal is done.  We all somehow manage to survive.   Wish I’d know you were here, we could have had a drink.  

Edited by Lobo

  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

No chatter in 10 days. No NAPE talk. Gas up $0.10 today, and still below $2.00. Crude at $52 and very flat. A&D totally dead. Banks about to drop the hammer. The blood in the street we’ve been anticipating so long might finally be here. I’ve never seen things so bad in my years in the industry. Never. 

I thought NAPE was well attended given the circumstances. I felt bad for how many landmen and land brokers who I talked to who were struggling, knowing that things probably aren't going to be picking up anytime in the near future. Most people I talked with had a pretty good sense of what was going on, certainly still a handful though with the "this is just the cycle" comments thinking it will pick right back up. 

Lots of "what's next" conversations about the post-shale world where oil demand continues to grow and as an industry we have to replace 4-5MMb/d every year to keep up with decline curves. There is going to be money to be made somewhere. GOM, Alaska, conventional, efficient shale once the debt holders are wiped out? 

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

No chatter in 10 days. No NAPE talk. Gas up $0.10 today, and still below $2.00. Crude at $52 and very flat. A&D totally dead. Banks about to drop the hammer. The blood in the street we’ve been anticipating so long might finally be here. I’ve never seen things so bad in my years in the industry. Never. 

Hah! The 86' bust say's, "hold my beer".  This one may get there, but it's not there yet.

And I know you said--in your years.

I've had a handful of clients mention to me that this feels like '86.  It seems like the only optimism is with folks in south LA or the GOM that aren't overburden by debt.

48 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Yeah well old timers that have been doing this since the 70s say it’s never been this bad. 

I guess it depends on your perspective.  I was around, just starting my career for the 86' one, and I'm a native Midlander.  It just about buried this town.  Bank failures, massive layoffs, company bankruptcies left and right.  It was ugly.

Like I said, it may get that bad again, but right now team shale doesn't seem to be getting the message..  Yes, it has slowed down and it needed to.  The musical chairs have finally started stopping. It's not a surprise to a lot of people.

This has been more of a technology boom and bust not price controlled like 86' and others.

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

It’s going to be ugly

It’s been ugly.  I fell for it.   But there are some that will get out.   The relentless shorting of the sector can only go so long, Wall St will never let one side of a trade win relentlessly.  

I work on the smart side of things but I’ve seen people in production roles get slayed. 
 

cheap nat gas will continue to fuel the ethylene market. Some expansion work has slowed but not much 

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It’s been ugly.  I fell for it.   But there are some that will get out.   The relentless shorting of the sector can only go so long, Wall St will never let one side of a trade win relentlessly.  

It amazes me that the public perception is that o/g is doing great. Then i point out all the eagle ford offices are boarded up. 

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