April 7, 20205 yr 24 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: It’s not global, not even close to crude. We produce 100 Bcfd. I’m not bullish on gas except I think it’s interesting NG hasn’t really moved much and is starting to come up. We still have entirely to much has in this country, and that’s not stopping any time soon. To classify NG as a regional or domestic commodity in 2020 is inaccurate. We require exports to balance supply/demand given current close to record high levels of production. That makes it global. Look at ng versus nbp/ttf/jkm on a chart. I don’t think we are disagreeing with each other except for that point. As for price...we’ve held multi year lows, which I guess is supportive. Balances in the near term, however, are a train wreck. Burns from power generation will have to remain at all time highs to keep the bottom in. Tough ask in the current state of affairs.
April 7, 20205 yr 51 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: It’s not global, not even close to crude. We produce 100 Bcfd. I’m not bullish on gas except I think it’s interesting NG hasn’t really moved much and is starting to come up. We still have entirely to much has in this country, and that’s not stopping any time soon. Our production is actually down to about 92.5/bn cfd as of recent. We may drop to 80 in the coming months.
April 7, 20205 yr My company gave full bonuses in late February despite the gathering shit storm. I'm grateful. I put 90% of it into savings. I hope my coworkers followed suit.
April 7, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said: My company gave full bonuses in late February despite the gathering shit storm. I'm grateful. I put 90% of it into savings. I hope my coworkers followed suit. We were supposed to get ours end of March. Not so lucky.
April 7, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, LurkingHorn said: We were supposed to get ours end of March. Not so lucky. I'm sorry to hear that. I hope they make it right down the road.
April 7, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said: I'm sorry to hear that. I hope they make it right down the road. Thanks. Bonuses “suspended indefinitely.” I’m not counting on anything.
April 7, 20205 yr 9 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: Look at historical prices in Europe versus US - and even today. I disagree it’s global. It’s trending in that direction but not there yet. Good. I presume this is the associated gas drop you’re anticipating. At $1.75 and trending upward, I don’t see an Appalachian slowdown. When shale drilling stops, doesn't majority of NG production go away? I would assume NG prices could see big jump soon.
April 7, 20205 yr 46 minutes ago, SquishMitten said: All that extra oil, no place to store it, a bunch of boats with nowhere to go... Oil lakes! but I like where you’re heads at. Edited April 7, 20205 yr by Dnaguy
April 7, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: Look at historical prices in Europe versus US - and even today. I disagree it’s global. It’s trending in that direction but not there yet. Good. I presume this is the associated gas drop you’re anticipating. At $1.75 and trending upward, I don’t see an Appalachian slowdown. Lol really? Look on your Bloomberg terminal at a prompt Ng1/ttf1 spread. They have followed each other like puppy dogs for months. That has corresponded with a steady increase in LNG exports as trains have come online. Is that some random walk? As for the associated gas drop. I have lurked on here a long time and very much appreciate your opinions Trey, but no way is production dropping to 80 any time soon. And the first tranche that drops will be the volumes being flared currently in the Bakken and Permian, over 1 bcfd.
April 7, 20205 yr 31 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: What was gas in Europe about a year ago? $6? Of course there’s a correlation. If it’s a true global commodity, there’s gonna be a few benchmarks within 10% of one another. When the LNG market is greater than 10% of production, you’ll have a better argument. I guess we are just arguing semantics of a “global commodity”. My view is that it is, now. PSA... running into producer hedging in 2021 at 2.50+... those lots will find their way to the front of the market at some point soon. Happy Gas Trading and good evening.
April 7, 20205 yr Halliburton to furlough 3,500 employees in Houston. One week on / one week off, so a 50% pay reduction. Benefits stay in place
April 7, 20205 yr Another 3500? Or the same ones that had been announced a week or two ago? they had previously announced 3500 furloughs on March 18th. Just curious if there are more. https://www.rigzone.com/news/halliburton_to_furlough_3500_workers_in_houston-19-mar-2020-161430-article/
April 7, 20205 yr 36 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said: Another 3500? Or the same ones that had been announced a week or two ago? they had previously announced 3500 furloughs on March 18th. Just curious if there are more. https://www.rigzone.com/news/halliburton_to_furlough_3500_workers_in_houston-19-mar-2020-161430-article/ it's the same group. not sure why the houston news had it at the top their page
April 7, 20205 yr HAL's business is heavily weighted to North America. 3500 is probably just the tip of the iceberg
April 7, 20205 yr Yes, my father had a 40 year career with HAL. Not sure how he did it, just tough and smart enough to escape the chopping block umpteen times best I can tell. Anyways, those service companies don’t wait to make deep cuts.
April 7, 20205 yr @Johnny Chimpo damn that is impressive. I made it 5 years (first five years of my career). I think the 6th round of layoffs is what finally caught me. It was a bummer because I was in the process of relocating to Australia with HAL but couldn’t get there fast enough before the ax.
April 7, 20205 yr 16 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said: Pre-market starting another leg up. Did BoJo die? Sorry, wrong thread. Can a mod please delete?
April 7, 20205 yr 56 minutes ago, Message Board User said: Quote It recently had 58 drilling rigs at work in the Permian, but that will likely fall to 15, said analysts with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Yikes
April 7, 20205 yr 12 hours ago, JimmyTwoTimes said: Lol really? Look on your Bloomberg terminal at a prompt Ng1/ttf1 spread. They have followed each other like puppy dogs for months. That has corresponded with a steady increase in LNG exports as trains have come online. Is that some random walk? As for the associated gas drop. I have lurked on here a long time and very much appreciate your opinions Trey, but no way is production dropping to 80 any time soon. And the first tranche that drops will be the volumes being flared currently in the Bakken and Permian, over 1 bcfd. Without an oil correction I don't know how production doesn't drop under 80 this summer. We will switch from an NG exporter in an importer in short order.
April 7, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: Associated gas is about 12% of this country’s nat gas production. Maybe 15%. Can’t find a recent figure. We are not dropping to 80 this summer or likely at all. I’ve read it’s upward of 40%
April 7, 20205 yr 36 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: Associated gas is about 12% of this country’s nat gas production. Maybe 15%. Can’t find a recent figure. We are not dropping to 80 this summer or likely at all. 34 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: I’ve read it’s upward of 40% 27 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: No more than 20%. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41873 12% per EIA (from 2018 though)
April 7, 20205 yr 35 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: Oil down 6%, natty up 6% 🎵 thats the way we like to fuck 🎶
April 8, 20205 yr Another week another 15+MM build in inventories. This all seems to be priced in as we're still up >3%. I'm still short oil, as this rally seems to be artificial, maybe people unwinding short positions?
April 8, 20205 yr Well fuck. The perfect storm we are in has now affected me. Just got the world that after next week the project is reducing everyone (well, most everyone’s) hours per week to 30. Yeah, I still have a job, but my gut feeling is this project gets mothballed.
April 8, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Patricio Swayze said: Well fuck. The perfect storm we are in has now affected me. Just got the world that after next week the project is reducing everyone (well, most everyone’s) hours per week to 30. Yeah, I still have a job, but my gut feeling is this project gets mothballed. Houston?
April 8, 20205 yr On 4/7/2020 at 5:20 AM, Johnny Chimpo said: Yes, my father had a 40 year career with HAL. Not sure how he did it, just tough and smart enough to escape the chopping block umpteen times best I can tell. Anyways, those service companies don’t wait to make deep cuts. I was driving through El Reno, OK over the weekend and saw what appeared to be a brand new, very modern looking Haliburton building with a "for sale" sign out front. The place looked like it had never been used. Then I saw the gas stations offering .99/gal. Tough times around here for sure.
April 8, 20205 yr 9 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said: Yeah. Currently on a FEED for an FPU. Dude. You’re F’d.
April 8, 20205 yr 32 minutes ago, Sandman said: Then I saw the gas stations offering .99/gal. Tough times around here for sure. Ugh.
April 8, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said: Thanks professor. Fo’ Sho. Fortunately, forums featuring likeminded friends like here are for support in your fluid FPU fickle fix that you find yourself floundering in.
April 8, 20205 yr On a serious note. I’m sorry about the uncertainty. I hope that this is only a temporary pause and don’t want to wish anyone actual harm.
April 8, 20205 yr Well fuck. The perfect storm we are in has now affected me. Just got the world that after next week the project is reducing everyone (well, most everyone’s) hours per week to 30. Yeah, I still have a job, but my gut feeling is this project gets mothballed. Damn... I get minutes for FEED projects. Good luck man. I hope you land on your feet.
April 8, 20205 yr well a good buddy just sent me his Buy Side criteria for acquisitions in the Delaware. He's PE backed and they have around ~45K NMA they are currently operating on so I guess there are some groups trying to acquire during the carnage.
April 8, 20205 yr Russia announced they would cut production. Tomorrow a bunch of others should announce the same.
April 8, 20205 yr 11 minutes ago, RexWilson said: Russia announced they would cut production. Tomorrow a bunch of others should announce the same. Got a link? I can’t find one.
April 8, 20205 yr Nice. Thanks guys. Was looking at buying some may/June puts on uso. Might hold off now.
April 8, 20205 yr Doing cuts after that temper tantrum makes them look like clowns. Will be surprised if it holds.
April 8, 20205 yr 17 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said: Fuck yeah. Bass boats, jet skis and F-350's for errbody. Limited or Platinum edition?
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.