April 21, 20205 yr 6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: I bought SCO yesterday at 37.75. Holding it for now More worried about USO suspending trading on my end
April 21, 20205 yr What website are you guys using to track the funds and commodities you wanna follow? Yahoo and MarketWatch don't allow you to track many commodities.
April 21, 20205 yr 3 minutes ago, Parliament said: What website are you guys using to track the funds and commodities you wanna follow? Yahoo and MarketWatch don't allow you to track many commodities. Investing.com isn’t bad for commodities, and is only a few seconds off real-time as opposed to others that are 5/10/15 minute delayed. You cannot trade commodities on a 15 minute delay. That’s like yelling at a dude that you watched fuck your wife after he walks out of the house rather than shooting his ass during the process. Edited April 21, 20205 yr by Trey3216
April 21, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, used2b said: So what is going to happen next? Read the article posted above. Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together - mass hysteria.
April 21, 20205 yr Anyone have a RRC update? Has there been a ruling yet?This morning, Sitton proposed 20% cut. Craddick and Christian did not second. DOA. Next hearing will be early May, but don’t see a confirmed date.
April 21, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, stone oak said: USO trading halted for 6th time today this one's a news halt. USO has changed the % of its front month, 2 month, and 3 month contracts. Quote Commencing on April 21, 2020, because of extraordinary market conditions in the crude oil markets, including super contango, USO has invested in other permitted investments, as described below and in its prospectus. In particular, on April 21, 2020, USO invested in approximately 40% of its portfolio in crude oil futures contracts on the NYMEX and ICE Futures in the June contract, approximately 55% of its portfolio in crude oil futures contracts on the NYMEX and ICE Futures in the July contract and approximately 5% of its portfolio in crude oil futures contracts on the NYMEX and ICE Futures in the August contract, except when the front month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case the futures contracts held by USO will be rolled into the July contract, August contract and September contract. In addition, commencing on April 22, 2020, USO in response to ongoing extraordinary market conditions in the crude oil markets, including super contango, may invest in the above described crude oil futures contracts on the NYMEX and ICE Futures in any month available or in varying percentages or invest in any other of the permitted investments described below and in its prospectus, without further disclosure. USO intends to attempt to continue tracking USO’s benchmark as closely as possible, however significant tracking deviations may occur above and beyond the differences described herein. USO’s portfolio holdings as of the end of the prior business day are posted each day on the website: www.uscfinvestments.com/uso.
April 21, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Patricio Swayze said: Lulz. What about my job? Culero. Cool Arrow? Thanks, man!
April 21, 20205 yr 37 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: That’s like yelling at a dude that you watched fuck your wife after he walks out of the house rather than shooting his ass during the process. And sorry for that. She told me you guys were separated.
April 21, 20205 yr Oil: The Storm Before the Really Big Stormby Peter Zeihan on April 21, 2020West Texas Intermediate, the oil grade most associated with American production, plunged down to -$40 April 20. You read the right. For a while yesterday, sellers had to pay people forty bucks to take a barrel of crude.As with any product, the business of oil isn’t a once-and-done. It must be produced, shipped and processed, and then the refined product must be shipped and retailed. What happened April 20 is a bottleneck in that process. Production surged ahead of pipeline shipping capacity, leaving some producers with nowhere to put their crude.The real kicker is that this is not the “negative prices” outcome I predicted a couple weeks back. “All” the April 20 event was was a single facility in a single country running out of future leased storage capacity for the month of May. The April 20 price crash will happen again in the same place and it will be bigger: June WTI futures contracts are now spazzing, and America’s Cushing oil storage and transport nexus undoubtedly will be actually full by then. But even this is nothing but the warmup for the big show.That will happen when the world runs out of storage.Numbers are fuzzy in this corner of global oil markets. In part because everyone classifies and categories their oil storage capacity differently. In part because they should (gasoline storage is functionally different from raw oil storage). In part because some countries don’t share data because they’re lazy or secretive. But no one thinks there’s a whole lot of storage capacity left. Global oversupply of crude right now is over 20mpbd (with 30mbpd seeming to be the “average” guestimate). Most folks in the know are now musing that what storage remains will be filled up completely sometime in May or early-June.And filled up it will be, because that is the express goal of the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi price war started out as a spat with the Russians over carrying the burden of a production cut. It has since expanded into the Saudis targeting the end markets of every single one of what the Saudis’ consider to be inefficient producers. The Saudis are directly targeting markets previously serviced not just by US shale and Russian, but those serviced by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan and Libya and Iraq and Iran and Malaysia and Indonesia and Mexico and Norway and the United Kingdom and Nigeria and Chad and you get the idea.As of this morning, there are still at least 24 supertankers carrying at least 50 million barrels of Saudi crude en route to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Most will arrive in May, seeking to fill up as much of what remains of U.S. storage as possible. Similar volumes are in route to Europe and even bigger volumes to Northeast Asia. In most cases the destinations are the transshipment nodes that enable distribution of inland-produced oil to coastal locations: Rotterdam, Suez, Singapore, Korea.Assuming you’ve got deep pockets, and Saudi Arabia’s are some of the world’s deepest, it isn’t a stupid strategy. If the Saudis can push prices firmly negative, it will absolutely crush many of the world’s energy producers. My back-of-envelope math suggest some 20 million barrels per day of production capacity – one-fifth of global output – will go offline for years. And then Riyadh will have what it wants: the ability to raise prices as much as it wants and to reign supreme over the world of oil for at least several years. (There are still a veritable swarm of flies that will need to be dealt with in that particular ointment, but the Saudi plan seems sure of generating plenty of ointment nonetheless.) The WTI price crash on April 20 confirms that if the Saudis didn’t realize the potential for their strategy’s explosive success before, they certainly do now. They have no reason to back down.There are a few producers worthy of callouts. Canada’s Alberta province has the most to lose. Not only landlocked, it must sell all its oil into the American market that is already so saturated. Its production must be shut in for years. Venezuela was facing civilizational collapse due to mismanagement before oil prices tanked. As oil is the government’s only remaining income stream, this marks the end of Vene as a country. Its oil will not come back for at least a decade, and even then only if an outside power first physically invades the place to rebuild the country from scratch. America’s sanctions regime against Iran has been so successful the country isn’t an oil exporter any longer. Its output will absolutely collapse this summer, and the country lacks the funds to bring in foreigners to help restart it or the skills to do the work itself. Russian fields are in swamps and permafrost. Drilling is only possible during the winter. Any shut-ins means the wells freeze solid, necessitating completely new drilling. Last time this happened it took the Russians nearly 15 years to get production back. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are both dependent upon other countries (in some cases, Russia) to transit their crude to market. High production costs plus finicky neighbors equals long-haul shut-ins. Nigeria is a mess on a good day, and the supermajors who have made Nigerian output possible have steadily moved offshore to get away from the chaos and violence. Once they turn off their wells, they won’t even consider returning until global prices rise to the point that they are once again willing to subject their staff to frequent kidnapping. That’s several years off. Iraq has been in a state of near civil war for some 15 years. The country is now producing over 4mbpd, the income of which helps hold the place together. Negative prices will remove the “near” from the country’s political condition and (at best) make the place a ward of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. It is also worth noting that the speed that this could all go from head-spinning to head-chopping is intensely short. Right now there’s still a fair amount of spare oil tankers to shuttle about the world. The Saudis have been leasing out every tanker they can find, so before long all the the world’s tankers will be full as well.Oil has been a panacea for all sorts of inefficient, compromised, and in some cases evil regimes for decades. Huge demand in the West and Northeast Asia allowed a raft of previously insignificant or morally reprehensible leaders and societal situations to effectively print dollars out of the ground and count the industrialized world as a hungry customer. Not anymore. Demand patterns have shifted, the United States is now an exporter of crude oil and products, and the petro-economy that has kept ayatollahs and ideologues afloat is crumbling. Before anyone cheers it’s worth remembering that things will get a lot uglier before they have any hope of improving.So - you are saying a world much like before - with Georgia having no recent national championship, but with the Saudis going in deep with no lube??
April 21, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Lobwedgephil said: Oil: The Storm Before the Really Big Stormby Peter Zeihan on April 21, 2020West Texas Intermediate, the oil grade most associated with American production, plunged down to -$40 April 20. You read the right. For a while yesterday, sellers had to pay people forty bucks to take a barrel of crude.As with any product, the business of oil isn’t a once-and-done. It must be produced, shipped and processed, and then the refined product must be shipped and retailed. What happened April 20 is a bottleneck in that process. Production surged ahead of pipeline shipping capacity, leaving some producers with nowhere to put their crude.The real kicker is that this is not the “negative prices” outcome I predicted a couple weeks back. “All” the April 20 event was was a single facility in a single country running out of future leased storage capacity for the month of May. The April 20 price crash will happen again in the same place and it will be bigger: June WTI futures contracts are now spazzing, and America’s Cushing oil storage and transport nexus undoubtedly will be actually full by then. But even this is nothing but the warmup for the big show.That will happen when the world runs out of storage.Numbers are fuzzy in this corner of global oil markets. In part because everyone classifies and categories their oil storage capacity differently. In part because they should (gasoline storage is functionally different from raw oil storage). In part because some countries don’t share data because they’re lazy or secretive. But no one thinks there’s a whole lot of storage capacity left. Global oversupply of crude right now is over 20mpbd (with 30mbpd seeming to be the “average” guestimate). Most folks in the know are now musing that what storage remains will be filled up completely sometime in May or early-June.And filled up it will be, because that is the express goal of the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi price war started out as a spat with the Russians over carrying the burden of a production cut. It has since expanded into the Saudis targeting the end markets of every single one of what the Saudis’ consider to be inefficient producers. The Saudis are directly targeting markets previously serviced not just by US shale and Russian, but those serviced by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan and Libya and Iraq and Iran and Malaysia and Indonesia and Mexico and Norway and the United Kingdom and Nigeria and Chad and you get the idea.As of this morning, there are still at least 24 supertankers carrying at least 50 million barrels of Saudi crude en route to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Most will arrive in May, seeking to fill up as much of what remains of U.S. storage as possible. Similar volumes are in route to Europe and even bigger volumes to Northeast Asia. In most cases the destinations are the transshipment nodes that enable distribution of inland-produced oil to coastal locations: Rotterdam, Suez, Singapore, Korea.Assuming you’ve got deep pockets, and Saudi Arabia’s are some of the world’s deepest, it isn’t a stupid strategy. If the Saudis can push prices firmly negative, it will absolutely crush many of the world’s energy producers. My back-of-envelope math suggest some 20 million barrels per day of production capacity – one-fifth of global output – will go offline for years. And then Riyadh will have what it wants: the ability to raise prices as much as it wants and to reign supreme over the world of oil for at least several years. (There are still a veritable swarm of flies that will need to be dealt with in that particular ointment, but the Saudi plan seems sure of generating plenty of ointment nonetheless.) The WTI price crash on April 20 confirms that if the Saudis didn’t realize the potential for their strategy’s explosive success before, they certainly do now. They have no reason to back down.There are a few producers worthy of callouts. Canada’s Alberta province has the most to lose. Not only landlocked, it must sell all its oil into the American market that is already so saturated. Its production must be shut in for years. Venezuela was facing civilizational collapse due to mismanagement before oil prices tanked. As oil is the government’s only remaining income stream, this marks the end of Vene as a country. Its oil will not come back for at least a decade, and even then only if an outside power first physically invades the place to rebuild the country from scratch. America’s sanctions regime against Iran has been so successful the country isn’t an oil exporter any longer. Its output will absolutely collapse this summer, and the country lacks the funds to bring in foreigners to help restart it or the skills to do the work itself. Russian fields are in swamps and permafrost. Drilling is only possible during the winter. Any shut-ins means the wells freeze solid, necessitating completely new drilling. Last time this happened it took the Russians nearly 15 years to get production back. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are both dependent upon other countries (in some cases, Russia) to transit their crude to market. High production costs plus finicky neighbors equals long-haul shut-ins. Nigeria is a mess on a good day, and the supermajors who have made Nigerian output possible have steadily moved offshore to get away from the chaos and violence. Once they turn off their wells, they won’t even consider returning until global prices rise to the point that they are once again willing to subject their staff to frequent kidnapping. That’s several years off. Iraq has been in a state of near civil war for some 15 years. The country is now producing over 4mbpd, the income of which helps hold the place together. Negative prices will remove the “near” from the country’s political condition and (at best) make the place a ward of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. It is also worth noting that the speed that this could all go from head-spinning to head-chopping is intensely short. Right now there’s still a fair amount of spare oil tankers to shuttle about the world. The Saudis have been leasing out every tanker they can find, so before long all the the world’s tankers will be full as well.Oil has been a panacea for all sorts of inefficient, compromised, and in some cases evil regimes for decades. Huge demand in the West and Northeast Asia allowed a raft of previously insignificant or morally reprehensible leaders and societal situations to effectively print dollars out of the ground and count the industrialized world as a hungry customer. Not anymore. Demand patterns have shifted, the United States is now an exporter of crude oil and products, and the petro-economy that has kept ayatollahs and ideologues afloat is crumbling. Before anyone cheers it’s worth remembering that things will get a lot uglier before they have any hope of improving. Is it bad, going to get worse and stay worse for an extended period? Yes. Is it going to be as bad as this bullshit? No. I think MBS likes living and KSA probably wants to remain a viable nation state, but who knows?
April 21, 20205 yr 4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said: Is it bad, going to get worse and stay worse for an extended period? Yes. Is it going to be as bad as this bullshit? No. I think MBS likes living and KSA probably wants to remain a viable nation state, but who knows? Do you want to know how you start a war? This is how you start a war. What incentive will a state like Iran (and even Iraq, in partnership), backed by Russia have to NOT launch a full-scale military assault on the KSA? Threaten people's existence.....they will threaten yours right back. KSA may get leveled...and they might have it coming.
April 21, 20205 yr Remember a few months ago when Iran (or someone) bombed the fuck out of one of the Saudi refineries? That was a practice round for what might be coming if they don't back down sooner rather than later.
April 21, 20205 yr Do you want to know how you start a war? This is how you start a war. What incentive will a state like Iran (and even Iraq, in partnership), backed by Russia have to NOT launch a full-scale military assault on the KSA? Threaten people's existence.....they will threaten yours right back. KSA may get leveled...and they might have it coming.KSA might get leveled? Well, like it or not that would draw a swift response from us. I don’t necessarily agree that we should defend KSA, but it will happen. The question is, what would Russia and/or China do in response to us retaliating against Iran? As bad as this Wuhan Coronavirus is, I hope it’s not the beginning of WW3.
April 21, 20205 yr KSA might get leveled? Well, like it or not that would draw a swift response from us. I don’t necessarily agree that we should defend KSA, but it will happen. The question is, what would Russia and/or China do in response to us retaliating against Iran? As bad as this Wuhan Coronavirus is, I hope it’s not the beginning of WW3. Yeah I'd love to see those ahitbags in Saudi Arabia to get their comeuppance, but they'd drag us right in. Sucks.
April 21, 20205 yr 23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: Do you want to know how you start a war? This is how you start a war. What incentive will a state like Iran (and even Iraq, in partnership), backed by Russia have to NOT launch a full-scale military assault on the KSA? Threaten people's existence.....they will threaten yours right back. KSA may get leveled...and they might have it coming. Just thinking the same thing.
April 21, 20205 yr 14 minutes ago, Hate said: KSA might get leveled? Well, like it or not that would draw a swift response from us. I don’t necessarily agree that we should defend KSA, but it will happen. The question is, what would Russia and/or China do in response to us retaliating against Iran? As bad as this Wuhan Coronavirus is, I hope it’s not the beginning of WW3. Would it? I mean, CR aside and criticism of the commander in chief, presuming that we acted rationally....why would we back the KSA? They have done some brutal harm to a significant sector of the US economy, too. Any assistance to the KSA would have to be conditioned on control of their supply (or at least the rate of their supply). And I remind you, oil -- either a glut or a scarcity -- is a proven catalyst for a big fucking war. Ask Japan, if you don't remember.
April 21, 20205 yr 27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: Do you want to know how you start a war? This is how you start a war. What incentive will a state like Iran (and even Iraq, in partnership), backed by Russia have to NOT launch a full-scale military assault on the KSA? Threaten people's existence.....they will threaten yours right back. KSA may get leveled...and they might have it coming. I’ve been saying that for a few weeks, well, since KSA and Mother Russia decided to flood the markets. It would almost certainly be a KSA/Iran start, which would boil over into a full-scale Sunni/Shi’a bloodbath.
April 21, 20205 yr I remember. But like it or not, we’ve historically been “allies” with KSA. I also remember a lot of criticism about the US abandoning “allies” whether we liked being their ally or not. I realize that our relationship with KSA is somewhat forced and has been for the better part of 50 years. I just don’t see us abandoning them if Iran did attack them. Hell, that would provide a little cover for what a lot of people would like to have done since the 70’s.
April 21, 20205 yr The saudis are already in a war with Yemen. The saudis want out of this war, ASAP. Yemen is very very scrappy. With more funding / better weapons, they can deal some serious pain to the saudis. the trick here, is explaining how Yemen went from shooting scuds to accurate tomahawk like cruise missiles over night #lordofwar https://amp.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/04/18/saudi-arabia-looks-for-an-exit-to-the-war-in-yemen Edited April 21, 20205 yr by tx 3 putt
April 21, 20205 yr I’d also guess that a two front war, Iran and Yemen would involve the west and it would come with a huge price tag trump will demand gold in payment and black water will be cashing in Edited April 21, 20205 yr by tx 3 putt
April 21, 20205 yr 10 minutes ago, Neonmoon said: Venezuela is proper fucked They would have to improve their lot 1000% just to get up to being "proper fucked." It's going to be just brutal carnage. They will fall apart completely. 10 minutes ago, Hate said: I remember. But like it or not, we’ve historically been “allies” with KSA. I also remember a lot of criticism about the US abandoning “allies” whether we liked being their ally or not. I realize that our relationship with KSA is somewhat forced and has been for the better part of 50 years. I just don’t see us abandoning them if Iran did attack them. Hell, that would provide a little cover for what a lot of people would like to have done since the 70’s. Well, then, that "ally" shouldn't have started a war against a huge sector of our economy. The KSA is not our ally. And if we were playing our cards right, we would have let them know that by now -- you're pissing us off, you're going to prompt a war with a shitload of your neighbors, and when it happens, we ain't gonna have your back. OR, you could straighten up and fly right. Your call. And yes, when this war happens -- and at this point, doesn't it almost seem inevitable? -- it's gonna be fucking BAD.
April 21, 20205 yr That’s why I put quotes of “allies”. KSA is not our friend, but there is a zero percent chance we let another county control the access to their oil fields...especially Iran and therefor Russia.
April 21, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said: They didn’t start an energy war. They vastly underestimated the effects of COVID on March 7 when their pissing match with Russia began. By the way, so did the Russians and so did we. They have already walked it back effective May 1. The industry (US Feds/Trump) and Saudi are gonna have to come to the table on the super tankers heading here with 50 MMBBLS. Oh, no question -- they got unlucky with their timing (or lucky, depending on your perspective). But the point is, they're in it now, and in it deep. Talking and trying to back down on this would be smart...but I don't know if you can put the genie back in the bottle. Desperate nation-states threatened with functional extinction will do some serious shit. It's unwise to back a dog completely into a corner -- he'll have no choice but to bite.
April 21, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: They didn’t start an energy war. They vastly underestimated the effects of COVID on March 7 when their pissing match with Russia began. By the way, so did the Russians and so did we. They have already walked it back effective May 1. The industry (US Feds/Trump) and Saudi are gonna have to come to the table on the super tankers heading here with 50 MMBBLS. They’re effectively non-vacation yearlong Cruise ships at the current juncture
April 21, 20205 yr 8 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: This is my problem with MbS. He’s unstable. He’s a more polished version of Kim Jong-un. I'm not sure what makes you think he's polished
April 21, 20205 yr 7 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: Explain....I think I know what you mean, but explain. I presume you mean they can’t sell to our refineries because of lack of capacity so they’re a non-threat. pretty much. A former executive at ARAMCO was on CNBC and Bloomberg tv earlier saying that there’s millions of barrels of oil headed to the US and they may be floating out in the ocean for several months, even though they’re due for delivery by April 30 and May 31. They’re just floating storage at this juncture.
April 21, 20205 yr Interesting thoughts on futures benchmark. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-prices-kemp-column/column-price-plunge-casts-doubt-over-future-of-u-s-crude-futures-kemp-idUSKCN2232MK
April 21, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, WBT said: I'm not sure what makes you think he's polished .... Edited April 22, 20205 yr by bob in houston don't put tits here dumbass
April 21, 20205 yr Just now, Dr. Beeper said: Yeah well that ain’t gonna help the curve. What Do you think on tariffs there? Those won’t help at all. We need more capacity to refine and utilize light sweet.
April 21, 20205 yr 3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: Again, let’s start a refinery. Obviously it’s not theeeeee answer, but for God’s sake, we only refine so much of our own oil for domestic use. There’s gotta be a better way for us to utilize our own damn oil. Most of It would be better off in the ground if we keep using it this way. Edited April 21, 20205 yr by Trey3216
April 21, 20205 yr I hope we are topping off the strategic reserves... since we don't have any other uses for money right now.
April 21, 20205 yr Zero o/g bailouts for any company laying off employees or fully funding execs bonuses
April 21, 20205 yr 16 minutes ago, Loco said: I hope we are topping off the strategic reserves... since we don't have any other uses for money right now. We already did. At $30 a bbl.
April 21, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Brisketexan said: We already did. At $30 a bbl. That sounds on brand
April 21, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said: We already did. At $30 a bbl. No we didn’t. A solicitation went out mid-March but was withdrawn when the money wasn’t included in the stimulus package.
April 21, 20205 yr 10 minutes ago, TonyTexas said: No we didn’t. A solicitation went out mid-March but was withdrawn when the money wasn’t included in the stimulus package. Ahh....makes sense.
April 21, 20205 yr "No bailouts for oil companies...just airlines, auto makers, shipping companies, and CPG factories. You know...the people that use all the oil."
April 21, 20205 yr Interactive Brokers customers held about 15% of OI yesterday, got liquidated at negative prices. Jump to 1:30 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/21/interactive-brokers-peterffy-on-earnings.html
April 21, 20205 yr Holy shit! The big brain poker players should go all in on this one: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3562879-cme-to-allow-listing-of-negative-oil-options Quote Starting tomorrow, the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) clearing house will switch its options pricing and valuation model to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures and allow for listing of options contracts with negative strikes, Bloomberg reports.
April 22, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said: Zero o/g bailouts for any company laying off employees or fully funding execs bonuses Just take a 1/4th of what a bailout would cost and pay out every O&G employee 80% of their monthly wage for 2 years. Let the companies go to BK and let the market sort out what the assets are worth. New companies will rise from the ashes to hire the employees back, and we stimulate the people who actually contribute to the economy.
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