April 23, 20205 yr 17 minutes ago, Storm the Field said: Hah. I didn't even read the article linked in the tweet. Headline didn't interest me. Was really focusing on the prediction in the tweet of at least 5 bcf/day coming offline in the next few months. Keep anything like that up for half a year and you're looking at something potentially approaching a trillion cubic feet of supply reduction. Yep. We’re already down to around 92bcf/d from 97. Could be under 90 by June.
April 23, 20205 yr 15 minutes ago, Neonmoon said: I've seen projections of up to 9 bcf/d coming offline in May I wouldn’t doubt it tbh.
April 23, 20205 yr As a geo, you guys are giving a chubby talking about potential nat gas shortages like this. Got some cheap conventional gas drill wells ready to spud if needed...
April 23, 20205 yr As an attorney and title guy, I'm getting a chubby thinking about nat gas drilling actually being a thing again. Would be nice for there to be work to do in other areas of the state than just 3-4 counties in the Permian or New Mexico . Also, the potential for a lot of acreage to start coming unleased as a result of shut-ins and cancelled drilling plans, and all the litigation that will likely result when operators and landowners start fighting over whether leases actually terminated. Just need to stay alive through the barren times ahead.
April 23, 20205 yr 18 minutes ago, Storm the Field said: Also, the potential for a lot of acreage to start coming unleased as a result of shut-ins and cancelled drilling plans, and all the litigation that will likely result when operators and landowners start fighting over whether leases actually terminated. Force majeure litigation for literally years. Just in time for me to take the bar.
April 23, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Eastwood said: Force majeure litigation for literally years. Just in time for me to take the bar. I thought you were pre-med?
April 23, 20205 yr https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/hamm-s-shale-explorer-invokes-force-majeure-citing-negative-Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
April 23, 20205 yr 9 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/hamm-s-shale-explorer-invokes-force-majeure-citing-negative- Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk While most people would assume a pandemic is covered by a Force Majeure Clause (Act of God), some courts in the past have taken a narrow interpretation and said unless it specifically is listed, it is not covered. The lawsuits will be interesting to watch through all of this
April 23, 20205 yr Had this conversation recently with some other title attorney buddies. Most standard force majuere clauses don't specifically say anything about a pandemic. You can bet they will going forward. And honestly, I don't know that a standard FM clause would save you here. Most are written in a way to excuse the Lessee only if they're prevented from conducting operations or producing due to Act of God or governmental order. "Prices have shit the bed due to a global demand shock" doesn't really mean you're incapable of operating the lease, it just means that doing so is fundamentally uneconomic.
April 23, 20205 yr 29 minutes ago, Storm the Field said: And honestly, I don't know that a standard FM clause would save you here. Most are written in a way to excuse the Lessee only if they're prevented from conducting operations or producing due to Act of God or governmental order. "Prices have shit the bed due to a global demand shock" doesn't really mean you're incapable of operating the lease, it just means that doing so is fundamentally uneconomic. I think this is right. If this situation satisfies FM, it could open up a Pandora's Box of economical FM reasons. Texas courts are notoriously pro-lessee, but this is probably a bridge too far. Other companies going out and drilling holes into the ground makes the argument even weaker. "Go and do likewise."
April 24, 20205 yr Well my one big O&G customer just paid their last huge invoice. It was over 40 days past due. So I got that going for me. I was getting worried. I probably will not be getting any orders from them anytime soon though. thank god im very diversified overall. Well as much as you can be as a pump rep in Houston.
April 24, 20205 yr 8 hours ago, Neonmoon said: I've seen projections of up to 9 bcf/d coming offline in May 3 to 5 most likely in May in my opinion. But who knows. These declines will be offset by demand destruction and LNG cancellations throughout q2 and potentially q3. Really messy in the front of the curve but unquestionably supportive winter/2021. Problem is that it’s become a really crowded trade at this point. Lots of Doctor/dentist money in the natty now as well.
April 24, 20205 yr 40 days in the oilfield?? Hell, that might as well have been overnight turn around.
April 24, 20205 yr Probably a stupid question, but I don't know jack shit about refining. Can all refineries process any grade of crude, but Gulf refineries are largely "tuned" for heavy crude, so processing lighter crude is less efficient/profitable, so they only process heavy crude. Or is the refining process significantly different enough that lighter crude requires different processing infratructure. Or does the type of crude dictate what refined products are possible, so the process is only geared to specific products making it pointless to take in different grades. What is the primary driver behind the types of crude that a refinery can process?
April 24, 20205 yr your opinion is not currently reflected in ng m 1.80 for sure. Seems like a fantastic opportunity.
April 24, 20205 yr 2 minutes ago, Blotto said: Probably a stupid question, but I don't know jack shit about refining. Can all refineries process any grade of crude, but Gulf refineries are largely "tuned" for heavy crude, so processing lighter crude is less efficient/profitable, so they only process heavy crude. Or is the refining process significantly different enough that lighter crude requires different processing infratructure. Or does the type of crude dictate what refined products are possible, so the process is only geared to specific products making it pointless to take in different grades. What is the primary driver behind the types of crude that a refinery can process? It used to be that way but just about everyone is now primed for "opportunity crude" which basically.means cheap sour shit
April 24, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, FartingMonk said: It used to be that way but just about everyone is now primed for "opportunity crude" which basically.means cheap sour shit I would say most of the more complex USGC refineries have been modified now to accommodate a lot more light sweet. But to answer the original question, two things dictate the product slate: the crude AND the refinery design. More precisely, the product slate is dictated by the specific units in the refinery. The spread between cheap sour shit and light sweet had narrowed significantly due to the Vz meltdown.
April 24, 20205 yr So CHK is up to 37. I realize the short squeeze implications but that seems like a high number for them. Earnings call in 12 days going to annihilate thay?
April 24, 20205 yr 21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said: So CHK is up to 37. I realize the short squeeze implications but that seems like a high number for them. Earnings call in 12 days going to annihilate thay?
April 24, 20205 yr Put options for CHK are insanely expensive across the board, right now. A $13 June 5 put is going for $4.90 a share. Wild.
April 24, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Neonmoon said: So CHK is up to 37. I realize the short squeeze implications but that seems like a high number for them. Earnings call in 12 days going to annihilate thay? Don't forget about the 1:200 reverse split last week. 😆
April 24, 20205 yr On 4/23/2020 at 10:38 AM, Eastwood said: Holy hell, CHK. Why? I was about to dump my position about a week ago. I didn't. That's the first good choice I've made regarding this albatross. Blind pig and all that...
April 24, 20205 yr Quote Shares of Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) are skyrocketing today, up by more than 37% as of 10:30 a.m. EDT, following news that the oil and gas specialist adopted a poison pill to shield its "net operating loss carryforwards" (NOLs) from a potential acquirer. Here is the news
April 24, 20205 yr Well I finally got the call, or text rather, to cease working on my project. Guess I’ll file for unemployment with the rest of the US
April 24, 20205 yr 33 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said: Everyone who holds CHK do yourself a favor and sell it all now. Or just continue to get kicked in the balls. Whatever you prefer. But I've come to enjoy the pain! It's familiar and comforting somehow.
April 24, 20205 yr 6 minutes ago, Cajun said: But I've come to enjoy the pain! It's familiar and comforting somehow. I remember you being a CHK stock lifer. You were groaning over it back when it was $7 before the split.
April 25, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, Cody2422 said: Well I finally got the call, or text rather, to cease working on my project. Guess I’ll file for unemployment with the rest of the US Sorry to hear, bud. A text? For real?
April 25, 20205 yr 38 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said: Sorry to hear, bud. A text? For real? That's some serious bullshit.
April 25, 20205 yr Any other backstory, besides the obvious finances, with regard to Apache? Those wounds run...pretty deep.
April 25, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, Eastwood said: I remember you being a CHK stock lifer. You were groaning over it back when it was $7 before the split. Yup. Expensive lesson.
April 25, 20205 yr 8 hours ago, Blotto said: That's some serious bullshit. Yeah, I kind of knew it was coming. We had some previous conversations and I got the dreaded “we need to know how many days you have billed to this project” inquiry. Edited April 25, 20205 yr by Cody2422
April 25, 20205 yr I may have mentioned this upthread. Data is a bit old, but it can't be much different today. Agriculture is having a very rough go of it too. Besides those 2 industries, all we have is the sale of NDSU Bison t shirts. And we can hardly afford all of our luxuries from that. Oil and gas development goes a long way funding our state’s priority and future. At more than $1.63 billion paid in taxes, oil and gas production and extraction taxes accounted for 45.1 percent of all taxes collected by the state in 2017. https://energyofnorthdakota.com/home-menu/bakken-benefits/tax-revenues/
April 25, 20205 yr Another 64 rigs down. Total rig count now stands at 465 (378 oil/85 gas), down 525 since the same week last year. That's the 2nd lowest amount of gas rigs recorded since Baker Hughes started keeping track in July 1987. Have pretty steadily dropped 60-70 rigs each week since the price crash during the 2nd week of March. At this rate, we should bottom out ~250 by Memorial Day. That would blow out the previous record of 404 on heading into Memorial Day 2016. Edited April 25, 20205 yr by Storm the Field
April 26, 20205 yr Another 64 rigs down. Total rig count now stands at 465 (378 oil/85 gas), down 525 since the same week last year. That's the 2nd lowest amount of gas rigs recorded since Baker Hughes started keeping track in July 1987. Have pretty steadily dropped 60-70 rigs each week since the price crash during the 2nd week of March. At this rate, we should bottom out ~250 by Memorial Day. That would blow out the previous record of 404 on heading into Memorial Day 2016.I still believe the most interesting number is active frac spreads. Drilling a well is less than 30% of an AFE today. The number that really matter is the DUC conversion rate. I am thinking about drilling and casing 5 wells in the next 3 months just because services are going to be so cheap. No intent to complete until pricing makes a meaningful recovery. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
April 26, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, tequila said: I am thinking about drilling and casing 5 wells in the next 3 months just because services are going to be so cheap. No intent to complete until pricing makes a meaningful recovery. the competition for any new work has to be fierce
April 26, 20205 yr 18 minutes ago, Neonmoon said: Nat Gas futures down across the board. Poop To be fair, where there's poop there's natural gas.
April 26, 20205 yr Diamond Offshore filing for bankruptcy. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diamond-offshore-files-bankruptcy-amid-190834618.html
April 26, 20205 yr 8 minutes ago, Texas St. Armadillos said: Diamond Offshore filing for bankruptcy. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diamond-offshore-files-bankruptcy-amid-190834618.html I feel like I've seen that headline half a dozen times over the last 4-5 years.
April 27, 20205 yr 7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said: Back in the day, diamond had some damn good cooks offshore They sure did. The late night menu on the Diamond General was excellent.
April 27, 20205 yr 1 minute ago, Heisenberg said: They sure did. The late night menu on the Diamond General was excellent. seafood on fridays steaks on saturday turkey and dressing on sundays another night was bbq chicken and ribs, grilled burgers it was all good
April 27, 20205 yr Would someone please translate this for me? Are brokerages afraid their clients can't cover margin calls? And what's the significance of this? With some folks on "Sell only," will it be enough to drive prices down? TD Ameritrade told customers it would only allow closing trades in June and July U.S. crude futures contracts as well as in all U.S. crude options contracts. “We made this decision based on the volatility and liquidity in the crude markets over the last week. This allows those markets to continue to return to their prior liquidity and volatility levels,” said J.B. Mackenzie, managing director in futures and forex at TD Ameritrade. Two other brokerages, London-based Marex Spectron and INTL FCStone, said they were limiting new positions being taken up after the high-volatility trading on Monday delivered big losses to holders of that contract. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-brokerages-idUSKCN2253P6 Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s largest lender, suspended sales of more products that allowed retail investors to speculate on swings in commodities after many were burnt by the unprecedented crash in crude oil. The lender will temporarily halt opening of new positions in products linked to crude oil, natural gas, and soybeans for individuals from 9 a.m. tomorrow, according to a statement on Monday. ICBC said the suspension is to protect clients’ interests due to the recent volatility in commodities. The move comes after a product linked to oil, sold by rival Bank of China Co., lead to more than $1 billion in losses for clients after falling below zero, suggesting there’s a hidden pocket of risk in the system. Official figures show there are about 1.88 billion yuan ($265 million) in outstanding in commodity-related investment vehicles, making up less than 0.01% of China’s wealth product market. The implosion of Bank of China’s “Crude Oil Treasure” caused an uproar among investors, who have taken to the Internet to protest the lender’s handling of the contract rollover and to demand it shoulder some of the losses. Investors in similar products offered by other banks mostly avoided that type of loss due to different designs. https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-27/china-s-biggest-bank-halts-swath-of-commodities-retail-products?__twitter_impression=true
April 27, 20205 yr 7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said: seafood on fridays steaks on saturday turkey and dressing on sundays another night was bbq chicken and ribs, grilled burgers it was all good Standard fare across most rigs in the GOM back in the day. I usually gained minimum 5 lbs every two-week hitch working offshore.
April 27, 20205 yr How much does it costs to store crude? Who owns more of the storage, refineries or pipelines?
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