April 29, 20205 yr I tried to outsmart the market and buy $DUG yesterday... boo. I'm still holding several O&G companies but how long does this keep going up? Edited April 29, 20205 yr by ZB'Tejas
April 29, 20205 yr I’m slightly skeptical on whether the finance side will have learned their lesson when things come back around. I read an internal report yesterday and was just astonished by what some of my colleagues think of basins and management teams. Granted I’ve been the pessimist on the team for the past six months. Walk this thing back four months and two of the deals we brought were just absurdly stupid, thankfully they got killed just in time. I mean one of them was a new iteration of a portCo and their plan was to immediately take the RBL, drill as quickly as possible and be at 80-90% utilization within a year. Why the fuck are you doing that? Why not drill at a moderate pace and utilize 50%? I was consistently told these guys were top management with xyz background... morons. Another client unfortunately did this exact thing a year ago... guess what dipshits, your BB is getting cut 20% and you’re in a deficiency. Just totally unnecessary. Also - it’s quite remarkable how once these companies stop drilling their EBITDA craters within 6-12 months. Doesn’t seem to follow the type curves I was shown the past two years. Have to wonder if they were forced to not drill for the next 2-4 years if the cash flow would actually pay back the debt. I doubt it. It has all the makings of a complex ponzi.
April 29, 20205 yr I’m slightly skeptical on whether the finance side will have learned their lesson when things come back around. I read an internal report yesterday and was just astonished by what some of my colleagues think of basins and management teams. Granted I’ve been the pessimist on the team for the past six months. Walk this thing back four months and two of the deals we brought were just absurdly stupid, thankfully they got killed just in time. I mean one of them was a new iteration of a portCo and their plan was to immediately take the RBL, drill as quickly as possible and be at 80-90% utilization within a year. Why the fuck are you doing that? Why not drill at a moderate pace and utilize 50%? I was consistently told these guys were top management with xyz background... morons. Another client unfortunately did this exact thing a year ago... guess what dipshits, your BB is getting cut 20% and you’re in a deficiency. Just totally unnecessary. Also - it’s quite remarkable how once these companies stop drilling their EBITDA craters within 6-12 months. Doesn’t seem to follow the type curves I was shown the past two years. Have to wonder if they were forced to not drill for the next 2-4 years if the cash flow would actually pay back the debt. I doubt it. It has all the makings of a complex ponzi.
April 29, 20205 yr 16 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said: I’m slightly skeptical on whether the finance side will have learned their lesson when things come back around. I read an internal report yesterday and was just astonished by what some of my colleagues think of basins and management teams. Granted I’ve been the pessimist on the team for the past six months. Walk this thing back four months and two of the deals we brought were just absurdly stupid, thankfully they got killed just in time. I mean one of them was a new iteration of a portCo and their plan was to immediately take the RBL, drill as quickly as possible and be at 80-90% utilization within a year. Why the fuck are you doing that? Why not drill at a moderate pace and utilize 50%? I was consistently told these guys were top management with xyz background... morons. Another client unfortunately did this exact thing a year ago... guess what dipshits, your BB is getting cut 20% and you’re in a deficiency. Just totally unnecessary. Also - it’s quite remarkable how once these companies stop drilling their EBITDA craters within 6-12 months. Doesn’t seem to follow the type curves I was shown the past two years. Have to wonder if they were forced to not drill for the next 2-4 years if the cash flow would actually pay back the debt. I doubt it. It has all the makings of a complex ponzi. Yea, I don't know if I agree with Doc Beeper that the money will be smarter the next time around - give me one more good boom, I promise I won't squander it this time. It may not be exactly like a Ponzi, but the whole thing sure seems to fall apart if there isn't some other optimistic sap to unload everything on after a few years... I'm not sure if it will be as easy for those who access the foundation/pension capital directly or not, but the teams I work with that have taken that route instead of PE have actually been pretty conservative and I think are going to be able to weather this storm. The bad news and hard conversations keep piling up for me - the London market is hardening at a terrible time, collateral demands from surety bond underwriters, the D&O market for both private and public E&P companies is doling out 100-200% rate increases, etc. etc.
April 29, 20205 yr On top of this, I've seen reports estimating that US production is already down 1.5Mbbl/day since the beginning of the crisis, and large scale shut-ins are just beginning. Currently sitting around ~11.5M/day. I'd expect we'll drop to below 10M by end of June. That would wipe out nearly 3 years of supply growth. Edited April 29, 20205 yr by Storm the Field
April 29, 20205 yr Got my 20% "temporary" paycut today. We aren't selling a single drop of oil right now, everything is being stored locally.
April 29, 20205 yr Unfortunately, I won’t be calling any of y’all until at least Monday. Gotta find the right numbers between now and Friday.
April 30, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, 3adays said: CHK is finally going to file bankruptcy. I hope they stretch it to next week. I had the over on May 1st
April 30, 20205 yr This song reminds me of the current sitch-ee-ayshun for some reason... https://youtu.be/XmIqIVxUuKs
April 30, 20205 yr 5 hours ago, 3adays said: CHK is finally going to file bankruptcy. I remember talking about CHK bankruptcy rumors at work in 2012. They've hung on an amazingly long time. I knew some good people that worked there, but good riddance.
April 30, 20205 yr I remember talking about CHK bankruptcy rumors at work in 2012. They've hung on an amazingly long time. I knew some good people that worked there, but good riddance. Yeah, that has been a long slow road for sure
April 30, 20205 yr I remember talking about CHK bankruptcy rumors at work in 2012. They've hung on an amazingly long time. I knew some good people that worked there, but good riddance. Yeah, that has been a long slow road for sure
April 30, 20205 yr Continuing to chip away at the supply/demand imbalance: COP announces cuts of 265K barrels/day in May, 460K in June. Norway announces cuts of 250K for June, 135K through December 2020. Valero says gasoline demand has climbed from 55% of normal to 64% in the past week.
April 30, 20205 yr An interesting development here in the Permian coming from all of this. I haven't seen it discussed here, apologies if so. Apparently crude purchasers are having trouble finding enough barrels to meet their contractual demands. So many wells shut-in, curtailed and operators storing their own barrels on lease that this is apparently the case. My friends in purchasing are now actually having to pay premiums to what they sold their futures contracts for last month in order to make delivery, making the losses even worse for them.
April 30, 20205 yr I guess anything is possible these days, but I have a hard time believing anyone is having difficulty finding barrels. Sounds more like your buddies are being taken to the cleaners.
April 30, 20205 yr 10 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said: I guess anything is possible these days, but I have a hard time believing anyone is having difficulty finding barrels. Sounds more like your buddies are being taken to the cleaners. I'm in Midcon, but one of our purchasers called today asking for any barrels we could send them--even split loads. We are selling a ton today and saving the storage for next month when prices are even lower.
May 1, 20205 yr Shell announces dividend cut for first time since WWII first major to announce dividend cut.
May 1, 20205 yr 37 minutes ago, Neonmoon said: Shell announces dividend cut for first time since WWII first major to announce dividend cut. Equinor (formerly known as Statoil) is pretty big and they cut their dividend last week.
May 1, 20205 yr 12 hours ago, Big Jimmy said: Marathon Oil layoffs in Houston today. damn, hate hearing this. i have a couple of classmates over there
May 1, 20205 yr Xom numbers this morning Exxon posted a GAAP loss of 14 cents per share, and a non-GAAP profit of 53 cents per share. The consensus estimate was for a breakeven quarter. The company announced a 30% cut in capital spending and will also reduce cash operating expenses by 15%.
May 1, 20205 yr Noms for May 1 natural gas production are 88.4 bcf, likely to get revised a bit higher, averaged about 92 last month.
May 1, 20205 yr Not sure what it means, but oil is trading negative in Kansas as well. KANSAS CRUDE OIL PRICES COMMODITY PRICE CHANGE UNIT UPDATED Central Kansas Sweet 5.35 3(127.66%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Eastern Kansas 47.75 -0.25(-0.52%) $US/Barrel 02 Jan 2018 Eastern Kansas Common 2.00 0(0%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Eastern Kansas Common Special -2.05 0(0%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Kansas 10.50 2.75(35.48%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Kansas Common 3.14 2.85(982.76%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Northwestern Kansas Sweet 3.25 3(1200%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 South Central Kansas 52.25 -0.25(-0.48%) $US/Barrel 02 Jan 2018 Southwest Kansas 4.23 2.7(176.47%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Southwestern Kansas Sweet 3.75 3(400%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 https://www.oilmonster.com/crude-oil-prices/united-states/kansas/17
May 1, 20205 yr Daily tidbits: XOM cutting 400K/day in Q2. 100K from Permian, rest from Canada and international. CVX cutting 200-300K in May, 200-400K in June. Air travel numbers beginning to improve ever so slightly. 155K went through TSA checkpoints yesterday. That's the highest number since 3/30, though still ~95% less than this time last year.
May 1, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Parliament said: Not sure what it means, but oil is trading negative in Kansas as well. KANSAS CRUDE OIL PRICES COMMODITY PRICE CHANGE UNIT UPDATED Central Kansas Sweet 5.35 3(127.66%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Eastern Kansas 47.75 -0.25(-0.52%) $US/Barrel 02 Jan 2018 Eastern Kansas Common 2.00 0(0%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Eastern Kansas Common Special -2.05 0(0%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Kansas 10.50 2.75(35.48%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Kansas Common 3.14 2.85(982.76%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Northwestern Kansas Sweet 3.25 3(1200%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 South Central Kansas 52.25 -0.25(-0.48%) $US/Barrel 02 Jan 2018 Southwest Kansas 4.23 2.7(176.47%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Southwestern Kansas Sweet 3.75 3(400%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 https://www.oilmonster.com/crude-oil-prices/united-states/kansas/17 Kansas Has No Trees
May 1, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, Parliament said: Not sure what it means, but oil is trading negative in Kansas as well. KANSAS CRUDE OIL PRICES COMMODITY PRICE CHANGE UNIT UPDATED Central Kansas Sweet 5.35 3(127.66%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Eastern Kansas 47.75 -0.25(-0.52%) $US/Barrel 02 Jan 2018 Eastern Kansas Common 2.00 0(0%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Eastern Kansas Common Special -2.05 0(0%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Kansas 10.50 2.75(35.48%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Kansas Common 3.14 2.85(982.76%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Northwestern Kansas Sweet 3.25 3(1200%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 South Central Kansas 52.25 -0.25(-0.48%) $US/Barrel 02 Jan 2018 Southwest Kansas 4.23 2.7(176.47%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 Southwestern Kansas Sweet 3.75 3(400%) $US/Barrel 29 Apr 2020 https://www.oilmonster.com/crude-oil-prices/united-states/kansas/17 Doesn't match the facts on the ground in Kansas. Spot prices never went negative there, did get to about25 cents on day oil went -37.00.
May 3, 20205 yr Seems legit from checking out the Reddit thread. Bosses told workers furlough was ending early and for everybody to come in Monday so... they can be unfurloughed and immediately laid off. Maybe you could pull a variant on the Costanza and just not show up Monday and hide out at home for awhile.
May 3, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, MaybeACoordinator said: Seems legit from checking out the Reddit thread. Bosses told workers furlough was ending early and for everybody to come in Monday so... they can be unfurloughed and immediately laid off. Maybe you could pull a variant on the Costanza and just not show up Monday and hide out at home for awhile. you bet like hell im slipping and tripping on the way in !!!!!!!!!
May 3, 20205 yr when I had an office, the only personal item I kept in there was a coffee mug. they can keep that if you work for any oil field service company (and have any sense), you know this day is coming sooner or later and you'll buy back in (after swearing you'll never work for an oil field service company again !!!) and that day will come again and so and so and so on. doesn't make it right but that's how shit goes. Edited May 3, 20205 yr by tx 3 putt
May 3, 20205 yr @tx 3 putt I agree with the first part. I left my office bare. Coworkers always made comments but it made things a lot easier once I was given the boot. Second part for me didn’t hold. I left and never looked back. Every year I feel better about the decision. I won’t lie; I do miss it somehow. I hate to see that at Halliburton office. Family friend was furloughed. He had been with company 25 something years. Worked in global supply chain I think so he managed to stay essential for a long time.
May 3, 20205 yr I’m 4 years or so, all these companies laying off will be offering huge sign on bonuses to get people back
May 4, 20205 yr On 5/3/2020 at 1:48 AM, tx 3 putt said: when I had an office, the only personal item I kept in there was a coffee mug. they can keep that if you work for any oil field service company (and have any sense), you know this day is coming sooner or later and you'll buy back in (after swearing you'll never work for an oil field service company again !!!) and that day will come again and so and so and so on. doesn't make it right but that's how shit goes. Been that way for over a century.
May 4, 20205 yr On 5/3/2020 at 1:48 AM, tx 3 putt said: when I had an office, the only personal item I kept in there was a coffee mug. they can keep that if you work for any oil field service company (and have any sense), you know this day is coming sooner or later and you'll buy back in (after swearing you'll never work for an oil field service company again !!!) and that day will come again and so and so and so on. doesn't make it right but that's how shit goes. I need my 28 year old HP-48SX calculator, but other than that they can keep the rest.
May 4, 20205 yr Looks like last week was the final week before the rig count officially drops into the 300's and sets all-time record lows. Friday's count was down to 408 (325 oil/81 gas). 57 less than last week. 582 less than the same week last year.
May 4, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said: I need my 28 year old HP-48SX calculator, but other than that they can keep the rest. I’m in sales, no calculators needed
May 4, 20205 yr I can’t remember what I left at my desk. But I know I have their laptop and one of the monitors. But my department manager texted me today that he put up for a job opening. Hopefully my resume isn’t one of 20 and the client chooses me.
May 5, 20205 yr Natty making a break for it overnight. Trading at 2.11+, up almost 7%. Finally broke over 2.018. Could get violent
May 5, 20205 yr 23 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said: I need my 28 year old HP-48SX calculator, but other than that they can keep the rest.
May 5, 20205 yr Low oil prices are a factor, albeit a small one, in why airlines are still operating today without furloughing employees. Per internal email at my airline, Jet-A costs about 50% of what it did earlier this year. So....thanks oil barons?
May 5, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Storm the Field said: WTI closes out the day with a nearly 24% increase to $25.28. The 18 tankers off the coast says that might go poof
May 6, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Neonmoon said: The 18 tankers off the coast says that might go poof Fucking Saudi's.
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