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Featured Replies

13 hours ago, 3adays said:

CHK keeps getting hammered on no real news. After their earnings report next week I may dump it.


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You’re playing with fire. You should dump it regardless. 

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I don’t know a great deal about Eagleford midstream. Can anyone tell me why a boon to EF production would NOT result in a similar differential predicament as exists in the Permian?  I believe this to be true but can’t articulate why.  

This week's natty report:

 

+24 Bcf vs. +36 Bcf consensus, +46 Bcf last week.

CHK sells Utica assets for just over $2B.  This could seriously get them close to where they should be given their assets.  Earnings next week will be interesting.   

13 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

I don’t know a great deal about Eagleford midstream. Can anyone tell me why a boon to EF production would NOT result in a similar differential predicament as exists in the Permian?  I believe this to be true but can’t articulate why.  

Because there is a longer runway between EF production and capacity, and because even if limits are hit, it would be materially cheaper to ship a barrel by truck from the EF to Corpus or Houston than it would be from the Permian.

Edited by skipmcgee

1 minute ago, skipmcgee said:

Because there is a longer runway between EF production and capacity, and because even if limits are hit, it would be materially cheaper to ship a barrel by truck from the EF to Galveston or Houston than it would be from the Permian.

Or Corpus

4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Or Corpus

Yeah, that's what I actually meant.

I don’t know a great deal about Eagleford midstream. Can anyone tell me why a boon to EF production would NOT result in a similar differential predicament as exists in the Permian?  I believe this to be true but can’t articulate why.  


B/c there is plenty of pipe to get it out of eagle ford, where there are constraints to get out of the perm.

I should’ve been more specific.  I know it would be cheaper to ship by truck or rail from South Texas.  So “similar differential predicament” probably is not going to happen, but could it widen with a huge boost to EF volumes?   I just don’t know the specific EF midstream situation.  

Monthly chart looks like it is skipping along a $67 bottom.

28 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Monthly chart looks like it is skipping along a $67 bottom.

Avatar accuracy

On 7/27/2018 at 2:44 PM, Rex Kramer said:

I should’ve been more specific.  I know it would be cheaper to ship by truck or rail from South Texas.  So “similar differential predicament” probably is not going to happen, but could it widen with a huge boost to EF volumes?   I just don’t know the specific EF midstream situation.  

SHOXHb7.jpg

Does this answer your question?

Natty report from this morning:  +35bcf vs estimate of 39bcf.

 

Currently below 5 yr minimum with some hot weeks ahead for TX, Southwest, and Cali.  

Article from yesterday...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4193251-august-2-natural-gas-storage-report-inventories-remain-5-year-minimum-weeks-least

 

And yes, SA is often fraught with yahoos, but BlueGold Research does a pretty fine job with natty, as does HFIR.  

Edited by Trey3216

  • 2 weeks later...

Any thoughts on the FANG acquisition? I guess the under performance yesterday was worry about share dilution and just the issues that come with doubling the size of your company. It's hard for me to not look at it as a good entry point. 

2 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

I’m considering a 1031 exchange out of my rental property into a WI to improve cash flow.
Anyone have experience with doing something like this?

A lot of my clients. Is this solely a tax deferral move or a mechanism to buy properties?  If the latter, consider whether or not you’re forcing that. Because depending on what you have to spend in sale proceeds, you could be buying marginal properties and might be better off participating in a small WI development program.

Heading to Mexico now and if I return next week with my head attached to my body, let’s get together for a drink to talk about it more. 

You sure you want to own WI? Make sure the operator has insurance and think about future P&A costs. Lots of shady operators out there.

1 hour ago, PappyVanVinceYoung said:

Any thoughts on the FANG acquisition? I guess the under performance yesterday was worry about share dilution and just the issues that come with doubling the size of your company. It's hard for me to not look at it as a good entry point. 

$117.70 at open today 8/16/18. Benchmark.

A lot of my clients. Is this solely a tax deferral move or a mechanism to buy properties?  If the latter, consider whether or not you’re forcing that. Because depending on what you have to spend in sale proceeds, you could be buying marginal properties and might be better off participating in a small WI development program.
Heading to Mexico now and if I return next week with my head attached to my body, let’s get together for a drink to talk about it more. 

Don’t forget your spitter.
44 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:


Don’t forget your spitter.

She’s not making the trip

You sure you want to own WI? Make sure the operator has insurance and think about future P&A costs. Lots of shady operators out there.

How else do I get to achieve Oil Baron status?

 

Jokes aside I wouldn’t even consider partnering with an operator I didn’t know well and that doesn’t have a good track record.

I’m in the early stages of data gathering at this point.

On 8/16/2018 at 7:38 AM, PappyVanVinceYoung said:

Any thoughts on the FANG acquisition? I guess the under performance yesterday was worry about share dilution and just the issues that come with doubling the size of your company. It's hard for me to not look at it as a good entry point. 

I like it.

  • Crude -5.8M barrels vs. -1.5M consensus, +6.8M last week.
  • Gasoline +1.2M barrels vs. -0.5M consensus, -0.7M last week.
  • Distillates +1.8M barrels vs. +1.5M consensus, +3.6M last week.

Crude: -2.6 mmbbl

Gasoline: -1.6 mmbbl

Distillates: -800 mbbl

Edited by skipmcgee

Fayetteville and Appalachia. Not exactly winning. 

2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Fayetteville and Appalachia. Not exactly winning. 

Field Man Alcoholism Starter Kit

There is BLM lease auction today (Eddy and Chavez) and tomorrow (Lea) for federal lands in New Mexico.  Several tracts went earlier for $60k+/acre and then someone won a bid at $81,899/acre for a 1,240 acre tract. $101,554,760 total.  Lea should be even wilder tomorrow. 

23 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

There is BLM lease auction today (Eddy and Chavez) and tomorrow (Lea) for federal lands in New Mexico.  Several tracts went earlier for $60k+/acre and then someone won a bid at $81,899/acre for a 1,240 acre tract. $101,554,760 total.  Lea should be even wilder tomorrow. 

Where are you tracking this?

On plane back from Midland.  Met with 7 companies today:

- Minerals buying isn’t going away.  

- A&D market will remain depressed at least in short term.  Anecdote is buyers are paying PV8 or PV10 for PDP only in areas that aren’t core Midland or Delaware. Or that is the fear / expectation-setting from advisory shops.  Eagleford PUDs a question mark. 

- A lot of guys hedged their Mid-Cush basis and are covered and ain’t slowing down. 

- I’m shit hammered and resumed dipping on planes 


- Minerals buying isn’t going away.

Yup. I have ~1500 NRA Midland Basin pkg on my desk that looks great.

All the other opps are barely getting any attention.
37 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Is this a front company that's laundering dirty money?

No shit!  What better way than US Govt land!

Next time a hurricane is coming I'm not going to miss my chance for easy money.  [emoji34]


How would you do it? An ETF that tracks crude?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


How would you do it? An ETF that tracks crude?


Yep, UWT is triple leveraged and I’ve used it for short term trades before, I just forgot about this time until now it’s probably too late to jump in.

Oh well, I’m still holding XOM and HCLP which should both continue upward, just not as much as UWT

Turns out it was Matador.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-13/matador-revealed-as-mystery-buyer-of-record-permian-acreage-sale

Hearing from clients and others in industry that there's a good chance Colorado's Initiative 97 will pass this November. That's gonna basically shut down drilling on non-federal land in the state. The new 2500 foot setback requirement would make almost all privately-owned land off limits to new drilling.

Seems like something that has potential to eventually end up at SCOTUS. Would effectively wipe out billions of dollars of value associated with mineral rights.

15 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Hearing from clients and others in industry that there's a good chance Colorado's Initiative 97 will pass this November. That's gonna basically shut down drilling on non-federal land in the state. The new 2500 foot setback requirement would make almost all privately-owned land off limits to new drilling.

Seems like something that has potential to eventually end up at SCOTUS. Would effectively wipe out billions of dollars of value associated with mineral rights.

If that happens, XOG, SRCI, PDCE, BCEI, and HPR are fucked.

6 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Hearing from clients and others in industry that there's a good chance Colorado's Initiative 97 will pass this November. That's gonna basically shut down drilling on non-federal land in the state. The new 2500 foot setback requirement would make almost all privately-owned land off limits to new drilling.

Seems like something that has potential to eventually end up at SCOTUS. Would effectively wipe out billions of dollars of value associated with mineral rights.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Why-BP-decided-to-move-Houston-HQ-200-jobs-to-10796111.php

Oops 

What does everyone think of a little company called P66?

On 9/17/2018 at 5:22 PM, Neonmoon said:

They moved to a red hot office market from a market where they have something like 450,000 SF of space on the sublease market.  The move makes no financial sense from an office occupancy cost standpoint. 

Separately, I was speaking to buddy of mine last weekend who owns an oil field services/wastewater disposal company that mostly operates in the Permian.  He is expecting a huge slow down in drilling/fracking due to take off capacity being maxed out.  He says the forward contracts for his services are about to crawl after blowing and going for the last year plus.  What is the surly consensus?  Is the market about to slow down?

45 minutes ago, heinhorn said:

They moved to a red hot office market from a market where they have something like 450,000 SF of space on the sublease market.  The move makes no financial sense from an office occupancy cost standpoint. 

Separately, I was speaking to buddy of mine last weekend who owns an oil field services/wastewater disposal company that mostly operates in the Permian.  He is expecting a huge slow down in drilling/fracking due to take off capacity being maxed out.  He says the forward contracts for his services are about to crawl after blowing and going for the last year plus.  What is the surly consensus?  Is the market about to slow down?

Mid/Cush basis differential has been shrinking since August, but it's still ridiculously high.  Capacity is going to be real tight until late 2019/early 2020 when EPIC, BridgeTex, Cactus II, etc come online.

11 hours ago, heinhorn said:

They moved to a red hot office market from a market where they have something like 450,000 SF of space on the sublease market.  The move makes no financial sense from an office occupancy cost standpoint. 

Separately, I was speaking to buddy of mine last weekend who owns an oil field services/wastewater disposal company that mostly operates in the Permian.  He is expecting a huge slow down in drilling/fracking due to take off capacity being maxed out.  He says the forward contracts for his services are about to crawl after blowing and going for the last year plus.  What is the surly consensus?  Is the market about to slow down?

Some will say no. Some will say yes. No one knows. No one ever does 

15 hours ago, heinhorn said:

They moved to a red hot office market from a market where they have something like 450,000 SF of space on the sublease market.  The move makes no financial sense from an office occupancy cost standpoint. 

Separately, I was speaking to buddy of mine last weekend who owns an oil field services/wastewater disposal company that mostly operates in the Permian.  He is expecting a huge slow down in drilling/fracking due to take off capacity being maxed out.  He says the forward contracts for his services are about to crawl after blowing and going for the last year plus.  What is the surly consensus?  Is the market about to slow down?

Oil slightly down. Nat gas up.

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