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How soon until we start seeing capital projects ramp up again?  What do folks think?  I assume we need to at least hold at current levels for a while.

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  • Pescado_Rojo
    Pescado_Rojo

    I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

  • If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

  • fattyflattie
    fattyflattie

    My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

Posted Images

11 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

They’re already there at the small independent level. The beauty is that it doesn’t matter - prices will continue to rise. 

Can you explain that a bit more? Because so much supply was shut down for good?

19 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Natty at $3.65, highest since late 2018. 

Meanwhile, European NG prices are at a 13 year high.

 

Damn, that make me think about Cheniere Energy (LNG). I bought lots (relatively) of shares back in college at around  $2.xx. Sold in the 50's I believe for a house down payment. Now it's up into the 80's.

Edited by KYHorn

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Because they feel they can develop wells economically, and they’re private.  They’re out to increase cash flow whether they intend to sell or not. 

That doesn't appear to be the part of the post he was asking you to expound upon.

40 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Ah. @KYHorn because we cannot possibly get back to 2019 domestic supply levels.  We’ve drilled our best locations in the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and Mid Con, and had by the start of Covid. We are on a very long road of domestic supply decline, and I predict it will be faster than people think. 

We had also become the swing producer of the world, and I do not think the world has another source that can easily replace our decline.  Also, demand is sharply rising, much faster than what the experts thought. 

So at this point, does GOM start picking up steam again or with ESG stuff and the amount of investment GOM requires is that just not going to happen?

It's no place for small independents to play anymore for sure.  The ARO and associated surety bonds/collateral that are required make it almost impossible for smaller companies to operate on the GOM shelf.

On 7/2/2021 at 7:23 AM, KYHorn said:

Damn, that make me think about Cheniere Energy (LNG). I bought lots (relatively) of shares back in college at around  $2.xx. Sold in the 50's I believe for a house down payment. Now it's up into the 80's.

Cheniere had the right vision/plan, but the wrong CEO. It's good to see them become one of the few success stores. 

Good buy. Very decent sell. I wish I had done something similar. 

If you missed out on Cheniere theres always Mesquite Energy. 
 

 

 

 

lol. 

On 7/2/2021 at 11:13 AM, Dr. Beeper said:

Ah. @KYHorn because we cannot possibly get back to 2019 domestic supply levels.  We’ve drilled our best locations in the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and Mid Con, and had by the start of Covid. We are on a very long road of domestic supply decline, and I predict it will be faster than people think. 

We had also become the swing producer of the world, and I do not think the world has another source that can easily replace our decline.  Also, demand is sharply rising, much faster than what the experts thought. 

Just curious - You don’t think OPEC+ can make up the difference?

with respect to GOM, I don’t see any desires for true greenfield projects. It’s just too damn expensive without consistent high prices. If infrastructure is relatively close and can be tied into, then GOM still works.

Some OPEC+ drama currently underway that's worth watching. What was supposed to be a fairly routine meeting to conclude on Friday has now spilled over into today. They were expected to announce an increase in production of 400K barrels/day per month through the rest of the year. Big disagreement right now between UAE and KSA (and everyone else) over extending the current cooperation agreement through the end of 2022 (currently expires in April) and how big UAE's slice of the pie should be.

Why this matters mainly is that if they can't reach a consensus, the current cuts remain in place (i.e. no +400K next month) and a short-term price spike seems likely. That's the upside scenario. Downside risk is that UAE decides to say fuck it, we're out, OPEC destabilizes and a price/production war starts up.

right at conclusion of opec meeting.  timezone is same as vienna.

 

image.png.0e50fbc02d5a6a2db7b49b6537654584.png

Excerpts:

(not an oil baron,  just have royalty interests)

 

OPEC+ was set to reconvene for crisis talks via videoconference at 2 p.m. London time Monday. However, after a two-hour delay, Reuters, citing two sources, said that the meeting had been postponed.

The reports were later confirmed by a communique from OPEC which said that “the date of the next meeting will be decided in due course.” Bloomberg also reported that it meant OPEC+ would continue with production quotas at current levels.

“For us, it wasn’t a good deal,” UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Sunday. He added that while the UAE was willing to support a short-term increase in oil supply, it wants better terms through 2022.

OPEC+, which is dominated by Middle East crude producers, agreed to implement massive crude production cuts in 2020 in an effort to support oil prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock.

Led by Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the UAE, OPEC+ has since initiated monthly meetings in a bid to navigate production policy.

It has resulted in a rare public stand-off between the UAE and its long-time regional ally Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader. The dispute comes as energy market participants anxiously await policy direction that is likely to shape crude markets into next year.

Responding to the reports, John Kilduff, a founding partner at Again Capital, said that the “Opec solidarity dissolved today.”

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/05/opec-meeting-saudi-arabia-uae-in-focus-over-oil-output-policy.html

Edited by torre

likely traders shorting front-month oil futures and long back month to flatten the curve.  shorting of near-expiration contracts pulls down spot price

6M barrel drawdown in crude yet again this week. Inventory levels are now 7% below the 5-year average.

There was also a huge drawdown in gasoline stocks (no doubt due to 7/4 travel).

WTI recovers to flat after dropping along with broader markets all morning.

On 6/21/2021 at 10:14 PM, tx 3 putt said:

I’m guessing that Purdue and school of mines kids don’t get that part of the interview but I’ll ask 

XOM is ate up with aggy.

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

XOM is ate up with aggy.

Purdue and school of mines are their darlings 

Aggys form hives in OG companies and start multiplying. Avoid at all costs 

9 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

 

Anyone else think increasing domestic demand for crude will pretty much eliminate arbitrage opportunities for domestic WTI, Mars, and WTL to Asia and Europe?  

3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m not sure what you mean. 

Basically we've been exporting a ton of crude bc the differential in price between our grades and a lot of foreign has been high.  If domestic demand becomes high enough, are the diffs going to become small enough to eliminate export opportunities to Asia and Europe.  I randomly thought of that last night.  

Edited by Tex48

On 7/10/2021 at 11:08 AM, Tex48 said:

Basically we've been exporting a ton of crude bc the differential in price between our grades and a lot of foreign has been high.  If domestic demand becomes high enough, are the diffs going to become small enough to eliminate export opportunities to Asia and Europe.  I randomly thought of that last night.  

Ok so I got my question answered today.  The narrowing diff between Brent and WTI has caused Europe to quit buying Sept WTI and they are instead buying more West African grades.  This just means more WTI will be going to Asia because freight rates are still crazy low.   

I haven't looked at federal permitting in a long time, so found this a bit surprising.

 

Quote

 

Approvals for companies to drill for oil and gas on U.S. public lands are on pace this year to reach their highest level since George W. Bush was president, underscoring President Joe Biden’s reluctance to more forcefully curb petroleum production in the face of industry and Republican resistance.

 

The Interior Department approved about 2,500 permits to drill on public and tribal lands in the first six months of the year, according to an Associated Press analysis of government data. That includes more than 2,100 drilling approvals since Biden took office January 20.

 

 

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

PM Derka. He’ll buy it. 

Or any of Dr. Beeper's friends, they can afford it.

Sorry; not gonna waste anyone’s time on a Seller that undoubtedly is fishing for dumb money. But, you’re goddamned right. 
It makes me so hard when Dr. Beeper flexes on how much his friends make.
5 hours ago, jeevsie said:

@Dr. Beeper I need you to pump some sunshine on this negative trend this week.

Meh. Seem to have found a floor at $70.50 and closed out the day flat at $71.65. I would feel worse if we'd fallen below $70 heading into the weekend.

"Worst week in months" lopped a whole $3.50 off of WTI.

fucking opec

Edited by 52-80

WTI up over $70 again and natty is just a few pennies shy of $4.

Edited by Storm the Field

On 7/21/2021 at 10:46 AM, Storm the Field said:

WTI up over $70 again and natty is just a few pennies shy of $4.

Update: Monday sell-off for WTI has been completely erased and natty reaches $4 for first time since December 2018.

Well I'd watch lyondell stock in the morning.  2 dead multiple injured in LA Porte tonight.

Oil prices are solid, fundamentals look good for oil companies. Oil stocks still in the dumps though. 

front month crude futures still cant bust 72 and been on a very very slow trend. 

XOP probably has a quicker upside

8 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Oil prices are solid, fundamentals look good for oil companies. Oil stocks still in the dumps though. 

Lulz. Why should this year be  any different. I don't give a fuck what their dividends have been, holding oil majors seems like a 10 yr kick in the balls. Set aside individual stocks of which there are many with fabulous returns, the major indexs all dominate the large oil guys. I'm sure the next 10 years will be better though, as the world rapidly migrates to electric cars and even greater consumption of renewables. 

 

image.thumb.png.e30abf2a884e7490675274b8ada33a79.png 

Always been cyclical but this time I’d be careful and spread it out

16 hours ago, 52-80 said:

front month crude futures still cant bust 72 and been on a very very slow trend. 

XOP probably has a quicker upside

spoke too soon. september contracts ripping through 73.  i should be bearish more often.

Meant to post this earlier:

Anecdotal, but holy crap, the traffic coming back to Houston from SA this Sunday.  Consumption is def up.

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