November 5, 20187 yr Monster 5+% gap up in natty starting in the Asian trade yesterday and continuing this morning. Trading at 3.48. My 4.00 prediction looks like it will happen this winter
November 5, 20187 yr On 11/1/2018 at 11:15 AM, Trey3216 said: Lots of consolidation going on. Wonder if these companies will end up getting bought 18-24 mos down the road. Some of them will be. I'd bet all of the Permian players not named CXO, PXD, and FANG get bought.
November 5, 20187 yr 5 minutes ago, skipmcgee said: Some of them will be. I'd bet all of the Permian players not named CXO, PXD, and FANG get bought. No doubt, makes too much sense. I mean, shitty ass CHK, which I admittedly have way too many shares of and have held for way too long, just struck a deal that greatly streamlines their business and immediately effects top and bottom line positively. They'll be able to make money and pay their debts down without having to sell prime assets. That's a big deal, and one in which could result in them being a TO target within 2 years.
November 6, 20187 yr There is a tsunami of private equity backed E&Ps in the Permian that are looking for an exit in the next couple of years, and the process just repeats. Medium fish eat small fish, and big fish eat medium fish. This will continue until all the decent acreage is consolidated into ten or so companies.
November 7, 20187 yr 4 hours ago, BTW said: There is a tsunami of private equity backed E&Ps in the Permian that are looking for an exit in the next couple of years, and the process just repeats. Medium fish eat small fish, and big fish eat medium fish. This will continue until all the decent acreage is consolidated into ten or so companies. The number of sizable privates in the Permian is much smaller than it used to be. Now corporate consolidation is beginning.
November 7, 20187 yr Florida did pass Amendment 9, which bans BOTH offshore drilling AND indoor vaping.
November 7, 20187 yr 13 hours ago, skipmcgee said: Looks like neither prop 112 nor prop 74 will pass in Colorado. Y'all think 112 was chilling lease buying in Colorado?
November 7, 20187 yr The new democrat governor elect in New Mexico doesn't sound too promising for oil and gas, but the new land commissioner elect there sounds down right scary for the energy sector. POSITIONS Garcia Richard has no previous environmental, energy or land management experience, but her antagonistic stance toward the oil and gas industry secured critical progressive endorsements from the Sierra Club, Conservation Voters of New Mexico, and “Frack Free Four Corners” group. She repeatedly voiced opposition to hydraulic fracturing on state lands on the campaign trail and opposes leasing in the Chaco Canyon area. Garcia Richard has consistently accused the oil and gas industry of “failing to pay its fair share” and pledged to increase royalty rates. Her campaign platform mostly focused on incentivizing the expansion of the renewable energy industry and opposing the oil and gas industry. The centerpiece of her campaign was to “leverage the mandate of state land office to restore transparency and make more money for our schools, hospitals, and colleges.” She has also repeatedly promised to “end the backroom deals that allow [the oil and gas industry] to pollute our lands, waste our water, and pay less than Texas.” Edited November 7, 20187 yr by sunset87
November 9, 20187 yr $59.50. Down 10 straight days, and 22% total since first week of October. Edited November 9, 20187 yr by Storm the Field
November 9, 20187 yr Natty traded up to 3.82 this morning, currently around 3.77. Up 6.5% on the session
November 9, 20187 yr And Good Lord what the hell is going on with SN? Not in it but I watch it since I have clients and friends who work there. Damn. Down 25% today and 60% over the last 2 weeks.
November 9, 20187 yr Colorado and NM would be proper fucked if they limit production and thus tax revenue. Gas is all front month loaded. It will revert to 2.50-2.75 by March. Sanchez had their coo and CFO leave. I could go into a long list of reasons why they are almost a penny stock but I think them leaving says enough.
November 12, 20187 yr Author 10 minutes ago, skipmcgee said: Man, sucks to be Canadian. WCS all the way down to $13.44. Can barely give it away, add in the logistics of getting it to any market at all and it's a fire sale.
November 12, 20187 yr Saudi Arabia will reduce oil supply next month in response to lower demand, and more cuts could follow next year. Speaking at a conference in Abu Dhabi, Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Falih said the kingdom's oil output would fall by 500,000 barrels per day in December. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies could reduce supply further next year if needed, he added. "The consensus among all members is that we need to do whatever it takes to balance the market," Al Falih said. "If that means trimming supply by a million [barrels per day], we will do it. A senior OPEC source said the cartel and other major producers are discussing cutting production by as much as 1.2 million barrels per day. A decision could be taken at the next OPEC meeting in Vienna on December 6. A cut of that magnitude would reverse a decision in June by OPEC and Russia to pump over a million barrels per day more to make up for the expected loss of Iranian exports. Edited November 12, 20187 yr by Storm the Field
November 13, 20187 yr From people pondering if we hit $100 by year's end to bear market in just a month. It's a helluva career to be in...
November 13, 20187 yr 13 hours ago, Eastwood said: From people pondering if we hit $100 by year's end to bear market in just a month. It's a helluva career to be in...
November 13, 20187 yr 18 hours ago, Trey3216 said: And still down again. 11 straight sessions I'm sure this helped:
November 13, 20187 yr Author Hot knife thru butter at the moment. We've broken through several technical levels in the past day or two, the latest being 57.40 a little bit ago Edited November 13, 20187 yr by 936horn
November 13, 20187 yr On 11/9/2018 at 11:50 AM, DCA_HORN said: Colorado and NM would be proper fucked if they limit production and thus tax revenue. Gas is all front month loaded. It will revert to 2.50-2.75 by March. Any reason a seasonal spike in natural gas can't be faded with puts on UNG or UGAZ? I mean, I get that it could continue to climb from here, I'm mostly wondering if there is any structural issue with pricing on those ETFs that makes a fade of the price difficult.
November 13, 20187 yr 4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said: Any reason a seasonal spike in natural gas can't be faded with puts on UNG or UGAZ? I mean, I get that it could continue to climb from here, I'm mostly wondering if there is any structural issue with pricing on those ETFs that makes a fade of the price difficult. The way UGAZ is engineered makes it tough. If you have several days in a row of violent upward movements in the underlying, that volatility premium gets accretive in the tracking. Plus they don't sell puts on UGAZ, you'd have to buy DGAZ, which is likely about to reverse split if there isn't some sort of pullback in the next few days.
November 13, 20187 yr 57 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said: Yeah, I didn't check the option chains. What about UNG? There are options on UNG.
November 14, 20187 yr 1 hour ago, Trey3216 said: Jesus Tapdancing on a toothpick. Natty up 13.8% to $4.66 this morning. If only NG stocks would follow suit, I have some CHK, RRC and GPOR I’d really like to unload.
November 14, 20187 yr Author This screams of a fund somewhere that was long crude and short gas and got blown up Edited November 14, 20187 yr by 936horn
November 14, 20187 yr 14 minutes ago, 936horn said: This screams of a fund somewhere that was long crude and short gas and got blown up Was reading that a pretty big hedge fund was having to unwind a boatload of positions long oil/short gas. Even after it's pullback from the morning high of 4.86, it's still trading up 7% around 4.40. Someone probably lost a few BN on the trade though. Ouch. The Widowmaker strikes again. Edited November 14, 20187 yr by Trey3216
November 14, 20187 yr Author 2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: Was reading that a pretty big hedge fund was having to unwind a boatload of positions long oil/gas. Even after it's pullback from the morning high of 4.86, it's still trading up % around 4.40. Someone probably lost a few BN on the trade though. Ouch. The Widowmaker strikes again. Indeed. Buncha people probably had to pack all their shit up today/yesterday
November 14, 20187 yr Was reading that a pretty big hedge fund was having to unwind a boatload of positions long oil/short gas. Even after it's pullback from the morning high of 4.86, it's still trading up 7% around 4.40. Someone probably lost a few BN on the trade though. Ouch. The Widowmaker strikes again. Exactly what has happened. Heard of 2 other Funds getting blown up from this. Serious money being made & lost the past couple of days
November 14, 20187 yr 16 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said: So, DGAZ going to have an "acceleration event" today or AH today? Would need to close down 85% to trigger. If it did, natty would blow through 5 and possibly run to 6 with all the shorts closing out and margin calls. Could be a very ugly/interesting few days here. Or it could pull back and DGAZ double
November 14, 20187 yr WTF https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-us-oil/macron-says-agreed-with-trump-to-pressure-oil-producers-idUSKCN1NJ2VA Macron says agreed with Trump to pressure oil producers PARIS (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday that he and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to put pressure on oil producers to bring down prices. Oil prices have risen 45 percent since Macron took office in mid 2017 and his government is facing pressure on high prices from a grassroots movement protesting recent petrol tax hikes. “When I talked at length with Donald Trump on Saturday in Paris, we together took the decision to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and other producers to limit prices,” Macron said in an interview with TF1 TV. “If you look at prices these last few days, oil prices are starting to fall and I hope that this fall will continue,” he added. Oil prices rose nearly 2 percent on Wednesday, recovering some lost ground the previous day amid signs that OPEC and allied producers may cut output next month to boost prices.
November 15, 20187 yr 5 minutes ago, skipmcgee said: HHUB down 10%. Yep. It's a terrifying trade rt now. Glad I'm not in it.
November 15, 20187 yr Also, for those of you backing the hedge fund theory, WSJ has an article about one of the largest oil focused funds losing 20%. https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-hedge-fund-giant-hammered-in-crudes-slide-1542292021
November 15, 20187 yr How much do you think we are drawing down from the SPR right now, trying to flood the market?
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