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1 hour ago, Not a Sock said:

Yeah. What is the estimated losses investors and creditors took in O&G since 2015? It’s got to be well north of 200 billion, companies are going to have to get 6 years of devastating losses off their books first. And OPEC has show. They can crush the US O&G back down with 40bbl so short of a black swan event I don’t see anyone giving O&G the credit card again.

Oh they’ll give it again and probably sooner than we all think. Highest performing sector in ‘21 and could be in ‘22. Massive supply crunch coming (already apparent and here, but ever-worsening). Companies have learned to live within their means and within ESG.  All of these factors are ripe for significant capital coming in. I don’t think it happens in a rocket ship fashion, but I definitely think there will be significant investment appetite. 

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    I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

  • If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

  • fattyflattie
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    My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

Posted Images

Companies have been pretty measured with their spending compared to the oil price since 2015... they probably learned not to get rugged again.

 

capex (stairstep blue) vs crude price (orange)

 

XOM

image.thumb.png.38f3b63a818ceba3587f02ee4a80429c.png

 

CVX

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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

NAPE is upon us once again. Tank's gonna be sputtering on fumes by the time I wake up on Friday.

I'm already exhausted. 

On 2/9/2022 at 9:30 AM, Storm the Field said:

NAPE is upon us once again. Tank's gonna be sputtering on fumes by the time I wake up on Friday.

I flew back home just now. 

On 2/9/2022 at 10:39 AM, Lagunamadre said:

I'm already exhausted. 

Part of this was spurred by the fact I shit the bed this morning. Like literally. 

Any word from you NAPE folk about API's appeal of the DC court's decision to vacate the November lease sale? I don't necessarily blame the court decision. It seems like BOEM did a bad job defending themselves.

Part of this was spurred by the fact I shit the bed this morning. Like literally. 
So deals were made I presume?
12 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

I flew back home just now. 

Part of this was spurred by the fact I shit the bed this morning. Like literally. 

At least you weren't walking the floor. Could have been much worse. Thoughts and prayers to your housekeeper. 

Made it through another Nape unscathed.  I drove back home this morning and skipped going to the floor at all.  Pretty decent turnout and it was good to see a lot of people face to face that I hadn't seen in a few years.

On 2/10/2022 at 11:04 PM, Porterhouse said:

I flew back home just now. 

Part of this was spurred by the fact I shit the bed this morning. Like literally. 

image.gif.fb238f67040376bb9657b5190a3d0b87.gif

We hitting $100 this week?

We hitting $100 this week?

I put on a bunch of hedges Fri afternoon, so probably over $100 by week’s end.


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19 hours ago, tequila said:


I put on a bunch of hedges Fri afternoon, so probably over $100 by week’s end.


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Yeesh. I had to hedge because I put some debt on it, but put the widest 3-ways I could. And it’s still a dumb trade. Hedging in a backwardated market that clearly should be in contango makes me want to puke. 

7 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

NAPE was a blast this year, IMO. Felt like a classic 2012-14 affair. Parties all over downtown.

Yeah it was fun. But 8-10 years ago I was younger and could hang. Fuck getting old. 

so vlad rugged everyone, and i got back in the CLJ2 and CLQ2 contracts

Biden considering suspension of ~18c/galon of federal tax on gasoline.  So thats how you fight inflation...

 

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Biden considering suspension of ~18c/galon of federal tax on gasoline.  So thats how you fight inflation...

 

Biden is a fucking moron. 

Would that suspension include diesel?  the tax on that is about 15% higher than on that of unleaded.  

Unless of course this means they're going retro and bringing back Leaded fuel.  Biden is old school like that   

9 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Biden is a fucking moron. 

Never figured you as a guy in favor of taxes.  Learn something new every day.

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Never figured you as a guy in favor of taxes.  Learn something new every day.

I’m not. Biden flails at shit with zero thought to ramifications. 

All that fiscal discipline talk of the past 2 years is definitely starting to crack. Rig count has gone up by 32 over just the past 2 weeks. Haynesville is all the way back to pre-COVID levels while Permian and Eagle Ford have recovered about 75% each. 

RRC permit applications are through the roof. I just did a search covering the past 30 days and got 137 pages of results.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-21/marathon-s-huge-louisiana-oil-refinery-rocked-by-explosion-fire

Quote

Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s oil refinery near New Orleans exploded into flames on Monday, threatening to crimp fuel supplies and raise pump prices at a time of already rampant inflation.

The company’s Garyville, Louisiana, plant is one of the nation’s largest and a key supplier of gasoline, diesel and other fuels. No injuries were reported and Marathon said it was assessing the incident that started around 9:30 a.m. local time. 

If any damages are significant enough to halt processing units at the Garyville complex, fuel supplies may be stretched, given rising gasoline demand and the fact that more than 10% of refining capacity in the region already is idle for repairs and other maintenance work. 

Retail gasoline prices have climbed 7.5% this year, adding to 2021’s 46% advance, according to AAA. The last time prices were this high was the summer of 2014, when international oil prices were above $100 a barrel.

Hopefully this is a nonevent. We dont really need additional stress on gas prices.

Edited by Blotto

The company I work for was already trying to accelerate our drilling and completions schedules by bringing on a 3rd and 4th rig by summer. Something tells me that I am going to be told to produce a what if schedule to get it done even faster.

4 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Wow going to the moon right now. Brent over $101 and WTI well over $96. 

98 and tickin

2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

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Insane fucking reversal. Same for gold futures. What a day

I was heavily disappointed after seeing all my stocks +5-10% in premarket trading only to open negative and go down from there. 

2 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

So with the skirmish going on and sanctions being implemented, does that mean we will no longer be importing from the Rooskies?

I thought we were energy independent? 

3 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

So with the skirmish going on and sanctions being implemented, does that mean we will no longer be importing from the Rooskies?

 

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I thought we were energy independent? 

We hardly get anything from them as it is. 

5 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

 

We hardly get anything from them as it is. 

Google got me this from EIA.  209K bpd imported from Russia in 2021 out of 3.2M bpd total.

7%. Not much. And with the price going up, it’s already started the process of bringing up our own supply.  

11 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

7%. Not much. And with the price going up, it’s already started the process of bringing up our own supply.  

industry will get some positive sentiment finally.  hopefully.

few years ago we had seismic survey done in our neighborhood for a geothermal campaign and people complained and protested because it was tangentially related to hydrocarbon.  seismic = energy = oil = bad. 

bulk of the gas import comes from russia.

maybe the idiots will think twice now.

Edited by 52-80

12 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

7%. Not much. And with the price going up, it’s already started the process of bringing up our own supply.  

I guess we disagree that 7% is a small number when it comes to oil, but you are correct, we will just increase production or buy more from SA

4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I guess we disagree that 7% is a small number when it comes to oil, but you are correct, we will just increase production or buy more from SA

I know you’re focused on US consumption needs, but we’re fine. The bigger issue is we will have to be fine at substantially higher prices, which has very very little to do with the small amount of crude we import from Russia and very much to do with the global nature of the commodity. 

FWIW the number being tossed around on Twitter for 2022 Russian oil imports to the US is 600K bpd.

I saw that it was 200k barrels of oil and 400k of unfinished products.

5 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

$102

yes-ayye.gif

 

Just heard an interesting analysis on the radio - the situation now with respect to pricing is essentially spring 2020 in reverse. Then, prices didn’t increase until the storage issue began to turn around. Now, the rapid increase will likely not abate until economies start to slow. $170-180 was the guess. [emoji15]

Just spotted in Midland. The only thing it’s missing is a Super Nautique on a trailer behind it. #$100 oil
668e60e5f5b80cd26b1ee68ce7537388.jpg

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