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#11401

uh, wow. Derek Ryan is the former research director of Texas GOP and consultant who worked for Perry and KBH. 

 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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#11403

8.2 million would be ridiculous (that's his projection).  the NYT/Siena poll had a Beto +3 at 7.3 million.

#11405
12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I can't imagine my church hosting a rally for a political candidate. Gross. 

This.

Our congregation doesn't even have an American flag in the sanctuary except for one single day of the year (scouting sunday, when the Boy Scout troop associated with the congregation participates in the service and comes in with their colors).  Theologically, that's 100% sound to me.

Hell, I remember the Sunday after 9/11, no flags, no patriotic tunes, none of the trappings of America.  Just a sermon.  And real-deal hymns.  I was pretty raw, when I complained about it to my wife, she said "well, the church's allegiance is to God and all his people, not the flag or a country."  And it resonated like hell with me.

#11406

8.2M total votes would be massive. 

We need this planned youth walkout tomorrow to be big in Texas. 

 

 

Edited by Bruh Man

#11408
7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

uh, wow. Derek Ryan is the former research director of Texas GOP and consultant who worked for Perry and KBH. 

 

giphy.gif

#11413
1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

Steve seems on top of things.

 

Yes Steve, going to be 12 million midterm votes out of 15.6 million registered Texans.

Also 8.2 million would be about 52.5% of registered voters in Texas.  That would make me cry, I'd be so thrilled.

#11414
1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

Might have to attend this.

 

 

Ahh Michael Berry, the genius marketer and salesman redneck who loves gay bars too. 

#11417
2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Might have to attend this.

 

 

Gotta appeal to the aggy, errrr, I mean base.

#11419
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Yes Steve, going to be 12 million midterm votes out of 15.6 million registered Texans.

Also 8.2 million would be about 52.5% of registered voters in Texas.  That would make me cry, I'd be so thrilled.

8.2 Million would give Ted a fear boner. 

#11420
Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

8.2 Million would give Ted a fear boner. 

Do you even red wave bro?

#11421

That Derek Ryan bro says that he's relying on the same early vote/election day split as in 2016, which seems like a poor assumption. 

#11422
17 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

 

Holy shit that's good. Would love to send that to the parents, but they'd never speak to me again.

#11423

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

#11424
1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

Agree.  That's what it looks like to me too.  Everyone's favorite word on EV this year is "cannibalizing."  He's not taking that into account at all.

#11425
2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

Idk man, if anything I see this year's election as even more energized and motivated than in 2016. There's no third party to steal votes and the dems aren't running a pantsuit as a candidate so the voters broadly actually like the candidate. I could see 8.2M votes easily. Literally everyone I know has voted so far, including folks who abstained in 2016. I really hope 8.2MM is an underestimate. 

#11427
7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

That Derek Ryan bro says that he's relying on the same early vote/election day split as in 2016, which seems like a poor assumption. 

 

#11428

Yeah, I don't see that happening. Everyone I know on both sides of the aisle except for my brother has early voted and I suspect that's not unique to my social circle.

#11430
3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

I agree with all this, but I think the number is closer to 7.3 than 7.5.  

 

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That couldn’t be good for Cruz

Eh, not so fast my friend. In general, higher turnout helps Dems, but we have to recognize that higher turnout in the few populous red Texas counties will heavily benefit Cruz. My thesis on this race is that in a high turnout scenario, O'Rourke's chances hinge on whether he can outperform "generic dem" in Collin, Denton, Tarrant,  Wilco, Lubbock, McClennan, Brazoria, etc. 

#11431

We'll see.  I think there will be more cannibalization than they seem to be assuming, and the total vote will be less than 8M.  

Previous cycles:

 

 

Edited by Fozzz

#11432
Just now, thepop said:

 

No.  The likelihood that a particular voter will use early voting has increased every year since its inception.  Seems especially dumb in a year where voter enthusiasm is off the charts and people were begging to get to the polls.

#11433
23 minutes ago, theaveragejon said:

Ahh Michael Berry, the genius marketer and salesman redneck who loves gay bars too. 

Well actually a transgender bar but tomato, tomatoh

Edited by Mack Tripper

#11434
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I agree with all this, but I think the number is closer to 7.3 than 7.5.  

 

Eh, not so fast my friend. In general, higher turnout helps Dems, but we have to recognize that higher turnout in the few populous red Texas counties will heavily benefit Cruz. My thesis on this race is that in a high turnout scenario, O'Rourke's chances hinge on whether he can outperform "generic dem" in Collin, Denton, Tarrant,  Wilco, Lubbock, McClennan, Brazoria, etc. 

Yeah, I think I'd probably go 7.3-7.5M instead of my earlier range. As mentioned above, percentage of voters voting early has been on a steady incline, which is just one more thing to add to the list of reasons why 8.2M is too high.

On the other hand there is supposed to be pretty good weather overall statewide tomorrow.

#11435
42 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

8.2M total votes would be massive. 

We need this planned youth walkout tomorrow to be big in Texas. 

 

 

This is where social media can be a force for good.  

#11436

My recollection is that in 2016 the election day turnout in Texas was strongly Republican, so a somewhat weaker number with 7.5m total should be good for Democrats.

 

#11437
18 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

HeidiCruzKiss-300x200.jpg

 

God, these two are straight out of central casting when it comes to being fake, plastic, power-hungry politicians. The rest of the country will be dumbfounded if we give them another 6 years.

#11444
2 hours ago, Post Oak said:

This is the one thing I can't square with the polls.  

they're happy to vote for him, but they're not going to turn out to see him. they don't care THAT much

#11446
18 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

they're happy to vote for him, but they're not going to turn out to see him. they don't care THAT much

I think this is part of it.  They are programmed to vote R from birth no matter what, so they don't pay attention.  They just go into that booth every 2 years, hit the R button, and move on.

#11448
20 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

FWIW- I never thought Beto answered that question the right way. His answer should have been:

“No offense, ma’am, but how NFL players act on the sidelines doesn’t keep you safe, lower your taxes or get better wages for working people. It’s something politicians want you to worry about so you won’t hold them accountable.
I stand, and I’m running for the Senate, not NFL commissioner.”

You don't go viral with that answer.  

#11449
16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I think this is part of it.  They are programmed to vote R from birth no matter what, so they don't pay attention.  They just go into that booth every 2 years, hit the R button, and move on.

Yeah, I was pretty much one of those dumbasses for a long, long time. It's a shame. Mostly born of ignorance, intellectual laziness, religious, family and community influence and a lot of status quo thinking. Glad I've moved on from it.

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