Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

Featured Replies

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

image.thumb.png.38a387643873c57d3a0567c1bdbf7b3d.png

$3.5m seems on the low end of what I expect in arbitration.  McCormick got $3.4 coming off a -.6 WAR season.  

  • Replies 853
  • Views 35.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • I retire in 2 days and we are working on our visas to move to Spain. The plan is to be there no later than early 2026, so I'll have to follow the Astros from afar next year. I've been a fan for as lon

  • tx 3 putt
    tx 3 putt

    i've hit golf balls 100's of times at memorial, never ran into altuve 🥺🥺🥺🥺  

  • I want a new training staff

Posted Images

6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

$3.5m seems on the low end of what I expect in arbitration.  McCormick got $3.4 coming off a -.6 WAR season.  

2nd, 3rd, and 4th year Arbitration salaries are heavily influenced by the prior year’s salary.  Meyers only made $2.3M last season (his first year in arbitration) because he hadn’t had much consistent production his first 3 seasons.  So his $3.5M estimate represents a big raise.  McCormick made more earlier in arbitration because he already had multiple 2+ fwar seasons on his resume going into his first year of arbitration, so his number ended up so high because he started off higher.

Edited by Snake Diggity

  • Author

do we lose a game next season ???

 

Four Astros players who the advanced metrics say could be in line for a breakout

Jesús Sánchez

Jesús Sánchez was one of the Astros' biggesttrade deadline disappointments. Acquired from the Miami Marlins to fill the left-handed void Yordan Álvarez's injury caused, Sánchez slashed a miserable .199/.269/.342 down the stretch for Houston. For his career, he's been roughly a league-average bat despite his imposing stature.

But there are some things that Sánchez excels at. His 75.9 miles per hour bat speed was in the 93rd percentile in 2025. At 91.3 miles per hour, his average exit velocity landed in the 79th percentile, and his 11.1 barrel percentage was a 69th percentile mark.

Translation: Sánchez swings with authority and can hit the ball hard. His strikeout and walk rates are both about league average. What holds him back is his launch angle sweet spot (frequency in which he hits balls at angles that typically do damage, which was a bottom 10 percent number this year. If Victor Rodriguez and his team can help Sanchez straighten out his launch angle woes, watch out.

Spencer Arrighetti

Injuries limited Spencer Arrighetti to just 35.1 innings in 2025, but with Framber Valdez likely a goner, Houston will lean on him more now than ever. The small sample means he doesn't qualify for many leaderboards, but he still has some elite underlying metrics.

First is Arrighetti's extension. It has come in at 7.2 feet each of the past two seasons, which is a 96th percentile mark. Extension can help in a variety of ways. First, it can make an average-velocity fastball seem like a high-octane offering. Second, it can really help the breaking pitches confound opposing hitters.

The latter is where Arrighetti has seen success. Arrighetti throws a variety of breakers, and in 2024, when he logged 145 innings, they produced a run value of five, which came in as an 81st percentile performance. Those pitches helped him post a 79th percentile strikeout rate and a 68th percentile whiff rate. Tweaking his fastball to play better off of those breaking balls could truly unlock his potential.

Zach Cole

As of MLB Pipeline's last update, Zach Cole is the 19th-best prospect in the league's 29th-best farm system. In short, he shouldn't be very good. However, a .255/.327/.553 line with four homers in just 52 big league plate appearances would suggest otherwise.

Cole didn't get nearly enough playing time to qualify on the Statcast leaderboards, but his 75.1 miles per hour bat speed, eye-popping 14.8% barrel rate, and stellar 48.1% hard hit percentage were all very solid marks. Cole isn't just a slugger; however, he's got some wheels, too, posting a 28.7 feet per second sprint speed, which was in the 83rd percentile.

You can't anoint Cole just yet. He struck out 38.5% of the time during his cup of coffee, and strikeouts have long been a bugaboo for him throughout his minor league career. He'll need to figure that out, but if he does, he could become a five-tool monster.

Cristian Javier

Cristian Javier likely wasn't at full strength when he returned down the stretch, 14 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His 4.62 ERA wasn't the result he or the Astros wanted, but there's some reason to believe what he was slinging out there wasn't nearly that bad.

Like some of the others, Javier's 37 innings pitched weren't enough to qualify, but the metrics are impressive nonetheless. Javier gave up a 38.3% hard hit rate and 6.5% barrel rate, both of which are elite. The result of those metrics was a .212 expected batting average, which, when combined with the other metrics, gave him a 3.41 expected ERA. In fact, Javier was victimised by a laughably low 59.4% left on base rate, which jacked up his actual ERA.

Javier's shown that he can rack up the Ks in the past, and if he can combine the two facets, he can reach new heights in 2026. If that happens, he could fill the No. 2 starter void.

 

 

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

do we lose a game next season ???

 

Four Astros players who the advanced metrics say could be in line for a breakout

Jesús Sánchez

Jesús Sánchez was one of the Astros' biggesttrade deadline disappointments. Acquired from the Miami Marlins to fill the left-handed void Yordan Álvarez's injury caused, Sánchez slashed a miserable .199/.269/.342 down the stretch for Houston. For his career, he's been roughly a league-average bat despite his imposing stature.

 

But there are some things that Sánchez excels at. His 75.9 miles per hour bat speed was in the 93rd percentile in 2025. At 91.3 miles per hour, his average exit velocity landed in the 79th percentile, and his 11.1 barrel percentage was a 69th percentile mark.

Translation: Sánchez swings with authority and can hit the ball hard. His strikeout and walk rates are both about league average. What holds him back is his launch angle sweet spot (frequency in which he hits balls at angles that typically do damage, which was a bottom 10 percent number this year. If Victor Rodriguez and his team can help Sanchez straighten out his launch angle woes, watch out.

Spencer Arrighetti

Injuries limited Spencer Arrighetti to just 35.1 innings in 2025, but with Framber Valdez likely a goner, Houston will lean on him more now than ever. The small sample means he doesn't qualify for many leaderboards, but he still has some elite underlying metrics.

First is Arrighetti's extension. It has come in at 7.2 feet each of the past two seasons, which is a 96th percentile mark. Extension can help in a variety of ways. First, it can make an average-velocity fastball seem like a high-octane offering. Second, it can really help the breaking pitches confound opposing hitters.

The latter is where Arrighetti has seen success. Arrighetti throws a variety of breakers, and in 2024, when he logged 145 innings, they produced a run value of five, which came in as an 81st percentile performance. Those pitches helped him post a 79th percentile strikeout rate and a 68th percentile whiff rate. Tweaking his fastball to play better off of those breaking balls could truly unlock his potential.

 

Zach Cole

As of MLB Pipeline's last update, Zach Cole is the 19th-best prospect in the league's 29th-best farm system. In short, he shouldn't be very good. However, a .255/.327/.553 line with four homers in just 52 big league plate appearances would suggest otherwise.

Cole didn't get nearly enough playing time to qualify on the Statcast leaderboards, but his 75.1 miles per hour bat speed, eye-popping 14.8% barrel rate, and stellar 48.1% hard hit percentage were all very solid marks. Cole isn't just a slugger; however, he's got some wheels, too, posting a 28.7 feet per second sprint speed, which was in the 83rd percentile.

You can't anoint Cole just yet. He struck out 38.5% of the time during his cup of coffee, and strikeouts have long been a bugaboo for him throughout his minor league career. He'll need to figure that out, but if he does, he could become a five-tool monster.

 

Cristian Javier

Cristian Javier likely wasn't at full strength when he returned down the stretch, 14 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His 4.62 ERA wasn't the result he or the Astros wanted, but there's some reason to believe what he was slinging out there wasn't nearly that bad.

Like some of the others, Javier's 37 innings pitched weren't enough to qualify, but the metrics are impressive nonetheless. Javier gave up a 38.3% hard hit rate and 6.5% barrel rate, both of which are elite. The result of those metrics was a .212 expected batting average, which, when combined with the other metrics, gave him a 3.41 expected ERA. In fact, Javier was victimised by a laughably low 59.4% left on base rate, which jacked up his actual ERA.

Javier's shown that he can rack up the Ks in the past, and if he can combine the two facets, he can reach new heights in 2026. If that happens, he could fill the No. 2 starter void.

 

 

Relative to their current fangraphs war projections, the guys I think have the best chance of surprising to the upside are:

Correa (3.7 fwar projection): It won’t shock me he if busts out with a full, healthy, MVP caliber season.

Paredes (2.0): Even if there isn’t a trade that opens an everyday spot on defense for him, I expect him to play the field most days and get more pa than they’re project him for.  He will end up closer to 4 war than 2.

Cole (0.6): The projections are down on his defense and it’s looking likely that Meyers will be shipped out and Cole will be given first crack at the everyday CF job.  He has immense ceiling with his power and speed; a season like Joey Gallo had in 2021 (4.4 fwar) isn’t likely but it’s possible.

Matthews (0.2): Cutting Dubon and Urias loose opened the door for Matthews to take on a super utility role, playing 2B, CF, and LF as they get guys more rest than in prior years.  If another infielder is traded it could also open the door him effectively being the backup at 3B and SS.  Either way, even in a bench role he will be a pinch running weapon.  Hes a very high ceiling prospect and I expect him to for outstrip his 0.2 fwar projection.

Javier (0.9): Javier has always been underestimated by the projection systems.  If he doesn’t get hurt he will easily more than double the 0.9 fangraphs is predicting.

9 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

diaz needs to step up next season

 

I think Diaz is a hard worker.  I just think he’s stubborn and prone to inconsistency which have prevented him from taking the next step.  And he was unlucky offensively in 2025.  But it’s a shame he can’t learn to be more selective and take more bad pitches.  He could be a monster.

Might want to work on throwing to second also.  It would be neat if he wasn't a greenlight to run on.

12 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

As things stand, Houston will have picks #17, #28, #60, #91, #120, and #131 in the top 4 rounds.

Unless Crane does something fucking retarded and signs another QO guy that puts up shit stats.

I'm reading the Blue Jays are strong contenders to get King Tuck and re-sign Bichette after getting Cease. How'd they find so much money? 

13 minutes ago, n64ra said:

I'm reading the Blue Jays are strong contenders to get King Tuck and re-sign Bichette after getting Cease. How'd they find so much money? 

They don't throw away money on the Montero's, Abreu's, and Javier's, McCuller's, and Waker's of the world. Instead they pick up trash heap guys like Ernie Clement and turn them into very productive players. They also nearly $60M coming off the books after the 2026 season with the FA of Springer, Gausman, Garcia, and Varsho. They locked up Guerrero at a great contract for them, and he's currently their only long-term commitment. Gimenez, Santander, and Kirk are all signed through 2030 with  a couple of those guys TOs.

However, looking at our balance sheet, we are in pretty good shape moving forward.

Correa and Altuve are signed through 2029, but both are negative values at this point in their careers, unless Correa has one of those 30-year old career bounces. There should be no reason he isn't a 4-5 WAR/Y player for the remainder of his contract. If he's not then the Astros have a real problem. Alvarez is signed through 2028 with no options. If he can actually stay healthy this season, I would sign him to an extension to try to get some cost certainity with the team. The Astros absolutely fucked up by failing to lock down Pena and Brown.

They are also going to be completely gutted after 2028 with the FA of Javier, Walker, Paredes, Sanchez, Meyers, and Pena. 

The organization has done an absolutely shitty job manaing their balance sheet, unless they get some of these guys signed.

46 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

They don't throw away money on the Montero's, Abreu's, and Javier's, McCuller's, and Waker's of the world. Instead they pick up trash heap guys like Ernie Clement and turn them into very productive players. They also nearly $60M coming off the books after the 2026 season with the FA of Springer, Gausman, Garcia, and Varsho. They locked up Guerrero at a great contract for them, and he's currently their only long-term commitment. Gimenez, Santander, and Kirk are all signed through 2030 with  a couple of those guys TOs.

However, looking at our balance sheet, we are in pretty good shape moving forward.

Correa and Altuve are signed through 2029, but both are negative values at this point in their careers, unless Correa has one of those 30-year old career bounces. There should be no reason he isn't a 4-5 WAR/Y player for the remainder of his contract. If he's not then the Astros have a real problem. Alvarez is signed through 2028 with no options. If he can actually stay healthy this season, I would sign him to an extension to try to get some cost certainity with the team. The Astros absolutely fucked up by failing to lock down Pena and Brown.

They are also going to be completely gutted after 2028 with the FA of Javier, Walker, Paredes, Sanchez, Meyers, and Pena. 

The organization has done an absolutely shitty job manaing their balance sheet, unless they get some of these guys signed.

Teams get a big financial windfall from reaching the WS.  Toronto has Santander (and Berrios) so they’re not immune from bad contracts.

29 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Weiss will have options but it’s weird they’ve signed 2 guys the promised a shot at starting.  Gonna be hard to add 2 more legit guys.  Reading too much into it I think this might predict an Arrighetti trade.

20 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Weiss will have options but it’s weird they’ve signed 2 guys the promised a shot at starting.  Gonna be hard to add 2 more legit guys.  Reading too much into it I think this might predict an Arrighetti trade.

Dana is a bad GM 

7 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Dana is a bad GM 

You have to shop at the bargin basement when your owner makes dumb financial decisions on the regular.

Edited by HtownHorn

  • Author

Astros senior director of amateur scouting Deric Ladnier drafted Ryan Weiss in 2018 while with the Arizona Diamondbacks -

19 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

You have to shop at the bargin basement when your owner makes dumb financial decisions on the regular.

Also that. Didn't Tillman finally get back from Italy. Let's negotiate a sell

Damn, when Weiss gives us a few shutout innings in WS Game 6, I am going to remind you guys.

 

 

Astros senior director of amateur scouting Deric Ladnier drafted Ryan Weiss in 2018 while with the Arizona Diamondbacks -
Still trying to prove you are smart Deric.

This guy will suck
14 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Weiss will have options but it’s weird they’ve signed 2 guys the promised a shot at starting.  Gonna be hard to add 2 more legit guys.  Reading too much into it I think this might predict an Arrighetti trade.

I mean we would have to see the return but that seems like selling low on a guy with 4 years of control left (could steal a year plausibly by having him start in the minors for a month this offseason) that had as good a 3 months as he has already. 

7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

hmmm

 

So what are we waiting on....fucking trade him 

6 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Just FYI

cbd48c39367f4201aa9f0f29dd9feb2d.jpg

I just want to see Durant and Altuve standing next to each other in real life.

1 minute ago, runthebone said:

I just want to see Durant and Altuve standing next to each other in real life.

Hey!

IMG_7627.thumb.jpeg.97e0f88bd784154c1ad79674bb65f893.jpeg

12 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

hmmm

 

Many GMs around the league are looking to Jesus for answers

  • Author
15 minutes ago, TejasPedro said:

Many GMs around the league are looking to Jesus for answers

 

this thread needs to find some jesus !

Gave em the old kimchi ball

If we can’t get a high priced Japanese player can we at least get a K-Pop Dodger Hunter from Korea?

22 hours ago, Scraps said:

Just FYI

cbd48c39367f4201aa9f0f29dd9feb2d.jpg

Ridiculous that it has taken this long.  Glad it is happening now!

20 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

38-0 season incoming ...

 

Meh... hard to get excited about highlights from a league where hitters can't catch up to anything over 93 mph.

  • Author
15 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Meh... hard to get excited about highlights from a league where hitters can't catch up to anything over 93 mph.

Bruce Lee Racism GIF

On 12/3/2025 at 7:40 AM, Scraps said:

So what are we waiting on....fucking trade him 

Seriously. Loads of athleticism, but the dude is just. not. fucking. ready.

1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:


 

 

Crazy to think that it won't be long before MMP has been the Astros home as long as the dome

3 hours ago, texashorne said:

Crazy to think that it won't be long before MMP has been the Astros home as long as the dome

2034 is still a ways off.

but yeah, crazy to think it’s already a quarter century old.

5 hours ago, UTexasFight said:


 

 

Am I the only one that didn’t know the ~13 arches in left field symbolize the tracks that departed from Union Station?

had no idea until the tour I was on a week ago.

(sidebar, if I retire in Houston, I’m definitely signing up to be a tour guide).

also, I forgot how awful the wall looks with all of those sponsors plastered from end to end.

IMG_1645.jpeg.b3248bf165553867d4ff3a445879947c.jpeg

15 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

wins moneyball GIF by AskMen

Not a baseball talent expert, but shouldn't a 25 year be better than most of the players in single A?

This reminds me of the 15 year old 7th grader dominating.  

Haven’t seen dominance like that display from Nico Zeglin since the contest to design the nuclear power plant of the future.

 

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.