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Featured Replies

We need some rain in a bad way right now.   Lou Holth’s mom has been stingy lately 

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12 hours ago, Shut up Lou Holtz said:

I wouldn’t mind taking a couple of inches. 

 

 

Ah shit that came out a little gay. #rainpride

Archer-phrasing.jpg

Look for 92L soon.

 

same area as 91L was.

  • 2 weeks later...

The Euro weather model is suggesting there may be some tropical weather in the gulf for 4th of July.

 

us_model_en_087_0_modez_2018062700_186_4

 

us_model_en_087_0_modez_2018062700_240_4

 

us_model_en_087_0_modez_2018062700_180_4

I hope no one gets harmed. 

Please please bring the rains to Austin

Interesting spin up near Eastern La.

That's the rain were supposed to get Wednesday f622e50a7e00f04a4e1130f9451c7461.jpg

Fuck hurricanes.

Fuck you July.

4 hours ago, Dewey said:

That's the rain were supposed to get Wednesday f622e50a7e00f04a4e1130f9451c7461.jpg

Is that graphic fuzzy because of the dust??

Hey I want the rain but fuck you for doing it on my 4th of July.

Edited by Moby Ric

I dont know, people around here will still enjoy the fourth, come hell or high water.

5 hours ago, Dewey said:

I dont know, people around here will still enjoy the fourth, come hell or high water.

They'll enjoy it come hell or hot water too, b/c that's where we're at in the lakes and pools.  

A potential system in the Atlantic this morning has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next few days.  It probably won't develop much further as it is expected to hit some shear as it nears the Caribbean.  

two_atl_2d0.png

 

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized,
and a tropical depression could form at any time.  This disturbance
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  However, in a few days,
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system
is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Quote

 

Scientists at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project have decreased their forecast and now believe that 2018 hurricane season will have below-average activity.

According to the forecasters, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased.

With the decrease in the forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well, report Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell.

The Colorado team now estimates that the rest of 2018 will see additional 4 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 10 named storms (median is 12.0), 41.50 named storm days (median is 60.1), 15 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (median is 2.0) and 2 major hurricane days (median is 3.9).

The forecast cites a 22 percent probability of a direct hit to the eastern United States; the average is 31 percent.

This revised prediction is a decrease from the group’s prior seasonal forecasts issued in April and June and there remains some uncertainty with this forecast. This forecast is based on an extended-range early July statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilizing 36 years of past data.

In explaining the changed forecast, they note that the tropical Atlantic is much colder than normal. “A colder than normal tropical Atlantic provides less fuel for developing tropical cyclones but also tends to be associated with higher pressure and a more stable atmosphere,” the forecasters note. “These conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.”

Also, the odds of a weak El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2018 have increased somewhat. If El Niño were to develop, it would tend to lead to “more vertical wind shear in the Caribbean extending into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they are trying to develop and intensify.”

At the start of the hurricane season in June, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated total of 10 to 16 named storms, tropical-strength or stronger, would likely affect the U.S., Mexico and the Caribbean. NOAA predicted that one to four of them might become major hurricanes.

 

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/07/05/494264.htm

Don't make a shit what they say the percentages are.

 

When that shit hits your city/ area, it matters not how many other storms there are.

^^^^^^

Gonna track west but shred/dissolve just before it gets to the Caribbean.  No big deal.

6 hours ago, phdhorn said:

^^^^^^

Gonna track west but shred/dissolve just before it gets to the Caribbean.  No big deal.

Not so fast says the GFS

Q2nkEAj.gif

I hope the wind shear and dry air do end this mother. 00e45daafe09df4fe3cc069c6df56498.jpg

I’m going to Cayman in a week. How much is this thing going to fuck up my trip?

Tropical depression 3 off the Carolina coast looking good. Should be Chris soon.

AxNH5SP.jpg

17 hours ago, simplicity said:

Not so fast says the GFS

Q2nkEAj.gif

Meh, gonna fire up in the Western Caribbean but poop out by the Windwards, as is common this time of year.

That blowup off the Carolina coast looks a little more promising, but probably not going to get too bad, the water there isn't quite as warm as the lower latitudes. Temps are between about 78° and 82°, borderline too cold to sustain surface strength.  Hopefully it'll stay mild and head out NE.

Chris is almost a hurricane

5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 9

Location: 32.2°N 74.4°W

Moving: Stationary (No change)

Min pressure: 996 mb (▼ 3 mb)

Max sustained: 70 mph (▲ 10 mph)

proally a Cat 1 before it gets picked up by the Jet and moves off to the NE.  Shouldn't be a threat except rip currents and some beach erosion from NC up to NJ.

25 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

proally a Cat 1 before it gets picked up by the Jet and moves off to the NE.  Shouldn't be a threat except rip currents and some beach erosion from NC up to NJ.

Probably, at least it should be some decent ACE.

17 hours ago, simplicity said:
Hurricane Chris
2zylngz.png
Nice to track a good looking and mostly harmless fish.

 

Ay Bay Bay


caab7d3bf721f916203b91e836147cd6.jpg

Edited by KuЯdt

Beryl's remains gonna reform in north of Bahamas and follow Chris's path up and out. 

  • 1 month later...

Things may be warming up in the tropics.

file.php?id=14301&t=1&sid=95351239e47dd8

  • Author
1 hour ago, Hate said:

Things may be warming up in the tropics.

file.php?id=14301&t=1&sid=95351239e47dd8

Not expecting much from this, lets hope. 

Some long range models are hinting at it making into the GOM and intensifying.  

 

Pucker factor for Hawaii with these GFS runs on Lane. On my phone that hates posting links, can anybody post it?

Models keep pushing back when Lane gets blasted by shear, it was originally Tuesday, but now its Thursday or Friday. Puckering intensifying for Hawaii. The hope now is for lane to get blasted by shear and then for the ridge to build back in before he gets the chance to run over Hawaii. 

1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

Models keep pushing back when Lane gets blasted by shear, it was originally Tuesday, but now its Thursday or Friday. Puckering intensifying for Hawaii. The hope now is for lane to get blasted by shear and then for the ridge to build back in before he gets the chance to run over Hawaii. 

This got me strangely aroused...

29 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

This got me strangely aroused...

"THIS IS PHDHORN AND I HAVE A HUGE HURRICANE BONER!"

ctyp_Frankie-macdonald-yelling.jpg?w=800

On 7/2/2018 at 5:23 PM, Stella Link said:
35 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

"THIS IS PHDHORN AND I HAVE A HUGE HURRICANE BONER!"

I'm not sure how you know this, but thank you very much anyway.

35 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

 

How do you know "huge" didn't modify "hurricane?"  

Fuck me...

Edited by Calihorn

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