September 1, 20196 yr 11 minutes ago, satyanash said: Lol Well that just proves Mizzou didn't want to be there. Thanks, Bill.
September 1, 20196 yr Maybe Bill should actually take into account Wins and Losses. Usually they are a pretty decent indicator of how good or bad a team is. His SP+ SEC rankings took a bath today.
September 1, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, Bevo14 said: Well that just proves Mizzou didn't want to be there. Thanks, Bill. Missouri was way down entering the 4th Quarter and got a few TDs to make it closer than it really was. But I guess they were far more efficient (WTF is that exactly?) in falling behind 34-17 after 3 quarters than Wyoming was getting ahead 34-17. I mean they gave up almost 300 rushing yards against Wyoming. You have to be pretty efficient to do something like that. Edited September 1, 20196 yr by Valmy77
September 1, 20196 yr S&P + preseason rankings- Missouri #13 (lost to Wyoming) Tennessee #26 (lost to Georgia State) South Carolina #17 (lost to UNC who finished 2-9 last year) It was obvious from the start these teams weren't going to be very good but don't tell Bill. His system is perfect. Edited September 1, 20196 yr by texasstrong12
September 1, 20196 yr 12 hours ago, HtownHorn said: Maybe Bill should actually take into account Wins and Losses. Usually they are a pretty decent indicator of how good or bad a team is. His SP+ SEC rankings took a bath today. Imagine the tweaking he had to do to satisfy his homerism.
September 1, 20196 yr Hypothesis: SP+ has a significant pro-SEC bias. Design: Bias should manifest itself most strongly in assessment of group members who are being judged based on group identity rather than individual accomplishment. That should impact the bottom teams most as few bother to analyze them as individual programs. We will measure the lower ranked teams in the SEC by result vs SP+ projection. Kentucky (+7.3 SP+) vs Toledo (-1.5) = projected MOV 8.8 pts + 3.5 home field = +12.3 final projection (+14 actual); +1.7 deviation MS St. (+20.3) vs UL-Lafayette (-6.9) = +27.2 MOV + 3.5 HF = +30.7 projection (+10 actual); -20.7 deviation Ole Miss (+8.5) vs Memphis (+10.9) = -2.4 MOV - 3.5 HF = -5.9 projected (-5 actual); +0.9 deviation Tennessee (+10.9) vs Georgia St. (-15.6) = +26.5 MOV + 3.5 HF = +30.0 projected (-8 actual); -38.0 deviation South Carolina (+15.3) vs UNC (+0.7) = +14.6 MOV + 3.5 HF = +18.1 projected (-4 actual); -22.1 deviation Missouri (+18.9) @ Wyoming (-1.2) = +20.1 MOV - 3.5 HF = +16.6 projected (-6 actual); -22.6 deviation Arkansas (+4.8) vs Portland St (not rated): no projection for SP+ but stat systems generally got this wrong e.g. Sagarin projected a 30 point Arky victory. For the lower half SECx3 teams that played OOC this week we had 6 results that could be predicted using SP+. 2 of those were quite close to the predicted result: Ole Miss and Kentucky. The other 4 were all HUGE misses. They were all in the direction of overrating the SEC team by an average of 25.8 points. In no case did SP+ underrate a lower tier SEC team. Conclusion: Within the sample set SP+ appears to be significant biased towards the SEC. The data set is not large but it is fully 25% of the relevant data we will get on this group during the season. The bias affecting the bottom half of the conference has strong indirect effects on the upper tier through SOS and similar calculations.
September 1, 20196 yr I think a team of math nerds could finish middle of the pack in the secsecsec and end up ranked #23.
September 1, 20196 yr BC/SP+: Texas should beat LaTech by 12 Vegas: Texas should beat LaTech by 21 Texas: hold my beer.
September 1, 20196 yr Vegas is also trying to influence people to bet and even out what betting has been made, but for the most part they are really close. Scares you to death how close they are in NFL games......
September 1, 20196 yr I’ve been back and forth with BC a few times on twitter. His inability to accept that game situations have tactics, or that they could effect his formula is frustrating. Turn overs have significant outcomes on games, YPP, explosiveness, and even Points per scoring opportunity. Also, his labeling of turn overs as luck is ridiculous. They might have elements of randomness, but one can certainly have players that have ball security flaws. Remember, in BC’s system a touchdown off a tipped pass is a sign of skill, but a cornerback stepping in front of out route is partially luck.
September 1, 20196 yr This guy is a fucking clown. He hates teams like Texas because we’ve been fucking up his cute little statistical formula since Herman has been here. Cant wait to watch him defend his bullshit on Twitter all season.
September 1, 20196 yr At this point I think he has overtinkered and has passed the point of diminishing returns. It was pretty accurate last year, at least for the meat of the season. It was rough at the beginning and end, IIRC.
September 1, 20196 yr 4 hours ago, sushihorn said: Hypothesis: SP+ has a significant pro-SEC bias. Design: Bias should manifest itself most strongly in assessment of group members who are being judged based on group identity rather than individual accomplishment. That should impact the bottom teams most as few bother to analyze them as individual programs. We will measure the lower ranked teams in the SEC by result vs SP+ projection. Kentucky (+7.3 SP+) vs Toledo (-1.5) = projected MOV 8.8 pts + 3.5 home field = +12.3 final projection (+14 actual); +1.7 deviation MS St. (+20.3) vs UL-Lafayette (-6.9) = +27.2 MOV + 3.5 HF = +30.7 projection (+10 actual); -20.7 deviation Ole Miss (+8.5) vs Memphis (+10.9) = -2.4 MOV - 3.5 HF = -5.9 projected (-5 actual); +0.9 deviation Tennessee (+10.9) vs Georgia St. (-15.6) = +26.5 MOV + 3.5 HF = +30.0 projected (-8 actual); -38.0 deviation South Carolina (+15.3) vs UNC (+0.7) = +14.6 MOV + 3.5 HF = +18.1 projected (-4 actual); -22.1 deviation Missouri (+18.9) @ Wyoming (-1.2) = +20.1 MOV - 3.5 HF = +16.6 projected (-6 actual); -22.6 deviation Arkansas (+4.8) vs Portland St (not rated): no projection for SP+ but stat systems generally got this wrong e.g. Sagarin projected a 30 point Arky victory. For the lower half SECx3 teams that played OOC this week we had 6 results that could be predicted using SP+. 2 of those were quite close to the predicted result: Ole Miss and Kentucky. The other 4 were all HUGE misses. They were all in the direction of overrating the SEC team by an average of 25.8 points. In no case did SP+ underrate a lower tier SEC team. Conclusion: Within the sample set SP+ appears to be significant biased towards the SEC. The data set is not large but it is fully 25% of the relevant data we will get on this group during the season. The bias affecting the bottom half of the conference has strong indirect effects on the upper tier through SOS and similar calculations. It doesn't change the conclusion but miss st and scar were neutral site correct?
September 1, 20196 yr 60% ATS is good. I wonder what his rate would be including the FCS v FBS games (I know— can’t calc because the data aren’t entered into his system from before). If he fixes much of what is wrong with his model, he might be able to start influencing lines. He may already anyway.
September 1, 20196 yr On 7/8/2019 at 6:46 PM, GabrielsHorn said: FPI updated their rankings: http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings Any system that has UCLA and Tennessee ahead of us should be thrown out. hahahahahahahaha, good one.
September 1, 20196 yr 12 minutes ago, zork said: hahahahahahahaha, good one. 0.2% chance to win out That's 1 in 500 Edited September 1, 20196 yr by Zavala
September 1, 20196 yr 2 minutes ago, Zavala said: 0.2% chance to win out That's 1 in 500 Dude is a fucking clown.
September 1, 20196 yr 8 minutes ago, Girdwood said: Dude is a fucking clown. Lol this is espin power rankings at this link. Lots of dudes. 6 sec teams in the top 11...........6
September 2, 20196 yr 0.2% chance to win out That's 1 in 500 Dude is a fucking clown. Hold on now. He's got aggy at 0%. Can't be all wrong.
September 2, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, DaysOff said: Hold on now. He's got aggy at 0%. Can't be all wrong. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut...but yes I did see that.
September 2, 20196 yr On 9/1/2019 at 1:22 AM, Valmy77 said: Missouri was way down entering the 4th Quarter and got a few TDs to make it closer than it really was. But I guess they were far more efficient (WTF is that exactly?) in falling behind 34-17 after 3 quarters than Wyoming was getting ahead 34-17. I mean they gave up almost 300 rushing yards against Wyoming. You have to be pretty efficient to do something like that. Watched this game. Wyoming has a RS freshman QB who looks like he has a chance to be a draft darling in a few years. Big, strong arm, good athlete. Only a 3 star, recruited by mid tier programs out west.
September 2, 20196 yr 16 hours ago, Magus Ossis said: 60% ATS is good. I wonder what his rate would be including the FCS v FBS games (I know— can’t calc because the data aren’t entered into his system from before). If he fixes much of what is wrong with his model, he might be able to start influencing lines. He may already anyway. It was 54% ATS week 1 of last season. I think Vegas caught up to him last year and likely will this season as well, but you may be able to make some money making a number of bets week 1 2020 using his predictions. Edited September 2, 20196 yr by Fozzz
September 2, 20196 yr 17 hours ago, Girdwood said: Also, fuck you Fozz. Take your shit to cloak room. get a brain, moran
September 2, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, Fozzz said: It was 54% ATS week 1 of last season. I think Vegas caught up to him last year and likely will this season as well, but you may be able to make some money making a number of bets week 1 2020 using his predictions. Thanks for letting us know Bill.
September 2, 20196 yr Hopefully this is the year that the media figures out that the SEC is Bama and the 13 dwarves. Per segment on SVP, 3 double digit SEC favorites lost this week, first time that has happened in over 20 years. The East is laughably bad and Georgia is going to sleep walk into their title game.
September 2, 20196 yr 16 minutes ago, Hozz said: Hopefully this is the year that the media figures out that the SEC is Bama and the 13 dwarves. Per segment on SVP, 3 double digit SEC favorites lost this week, first time that has happened in over 20 years. The East is laughably bad and Georgia is going to sleep walk into their title game. I think the SEC west has a chance to be very good this year - Bama, obviously, but LSU is obviously looking strong and Auburn did take down Oregon. Aggy and Mississippi State have some pieces but the jury is out on them. Piggy and klan aggy suck but the SEC West was probably the best division in college football last year, and is right up there in that discussion most years. Good lord the SEC East is trash though. That division is a G5 outside of Georgia.
September 2, 20196 yr 8 minutes ago, gmr548 said: I think the SEC west has a chance to be very good this year - Bama, obviously, but LSU is obviously looking strong and Auburn did take down Oregon. Aggy and Mississippi State have some pieces but the jury is out on them. Piggy and klan aggy suck but the SEC West was probably the best division in college football last year, and is right up there in that discussion most years. Good lord the SEC East is trash though. That division is a G5 outside of Georgia. I'm not sure that Oregon is worth a shit but we will see. LSU is good. Writing them off as a "dwarf" is silly. Oh and quit negging everyone in this thread Fozz you fucking cunt Edited September 2, 20196 yr by ztejas
September 2, 20196 yr On 9/1/2019 at 1:33 PM, Magus Ossis said: BC/SP+: Texas should beat LaTech by 12 Vegas: Texas should beat LaTech by 21 Texas: hold my beer. If they dont call roughing the passer we probably win 52-7.
September 2, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, gmr548 said: I think the SEC west has a chance to be very good this year - Bama, obviously, but LSU is obviously looking strong and Auburn did take down Oregon. Aggy and Mississippi State have some pieces but the jury is out on them. Piggy and klan aggy suck but the SEC West was probably the best division in college football last year, and is right up there in that discussion most years. Good lord the SEC East is trash though. That division is a G5 outside of Georgia. I think the SEC West being the best division in FBS and the SEC as a whole being overrated can both be true. I think divisions are an outdated construct at this point. SEC East is easy mode path to their title game. Flip UGA into the West for LSU and they likely aren't getting any SEC title game appearances, while LSU all of sudden is. Missouri has two title appearances by virtue of being placed in the East and not the West. Same with the weak division in the Big 10. Northwestern doesn't sniff the title game if they are in the tough division. This shit affects the NFL playoffs every year too and in the NBA the West has been the dominant conference (conferences sitting in for divisions here) for 20 years, resulting in a much easier path to the Finals for the East. 1 hour ago, ztejas said: I'm not sure that Oregon is worth a shit but we will see. LSU is good. Writing them off as a "dwarf" is silly. Oh and quit negging everyone in this thread Fozz you fucking cunt Hyperbole. My point is, Bama's last 10 years have been an incredible run in the most competitive era of the sport and the rest of the SEC is riding their achievement in the form of elevated rankings, perception, TV ratings, NFL draft picks and live rights contract money.
September 2, 20196 yr 7 minutes ago, Hozz said: ... My point is, Bama's last 10 years have been an incredible run in the most competitive era of the sport and the rest of the SEC is riding their achievement in the form of elevated rankings, perception, TV ratings, NFL draft picks and live rights contract money. Left out recruiting. Also, part of the ratings boost is due to 4 OOC every year. Another part is scheduling the penultimate week patsies.
September 3, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, Tex Long said: Left out recruiting. Also, part of the ratings boost is due to 4 OOC every year. Another part is scheduling the penultimate week patsies. Absolutely agree. The scheduling loopholes they exploit need to be closed by the CFP. There needs to be scheduling requirements across the P5 in order to be eligible for a CFP selection. 8 conference games instead of 9 and multiple FCS teams on the schedule that are functionally simultaneously bye weeks and game reps for depth.
September 3, 20196 yr 9 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said: Thanks for letting us know Bill. I was just wondering why this person was spending so much time defending Connelly and negging everyone who bashed him... it all makes sense now.
September 3, 20196 yr On 9/1/2019 at 1:33 PM, Magus Ossis said: BC/SP+: Texas should beat LaTech by 12 Vegas: Texas should beat LaTech by 21 Texas: hold my beer. For week 2 SP+: LSU by 13.5 (based on preseason ratings and 3 pt home field advantage) Vegas: LSU by 5.5 Texas: hold my beer
September 3, 20196 yr 15 hours ago, Texas007 said: I was just wondering why this person was spending so much time defending Connelly and negging everyone who bashed him... it all makes sense now. It's definitely odd. He spends most his time here defending Connelly and S&P+. I was just joking but I'm somewhat convinced it might actually be Connelly.
September 3, 20196 yr Lol he dropped OK State of all teams? Texas is now 23, between #22 Mizzou (fucking lol) and #24 Oregon (sure, they actually looked decent in that loss) Edited September 3, 20196 yr by texifornia
September 3, 20196 yr 2 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said: It's definitely odd. He spends most his time here defending Connelly and S&P+. I was just joking but I'm somewhat convinced it might actually be Connelly. Public figures that post here Bill Connelly- Fozzz Greg Davis- CTJ Dan Quayle- Iconoclast John Sharp- banned Mike Leach- Danger Snacks? Huff- ? Matthew McConaughey- who else could act well enough to impersonate an orthopedic surgeon? Hal Mumme- HPSlugga Others?
September 3, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said: Public figures that post here Bill Connelly- Fozzz Greg Davis- CTJ Dan Quayle- Iconoclast John Sharp- banned Mike Leach- Danger Snacks? Huff- ? Matthew McConaughey- who else could act well enough to impersonate an orthopedic surgeon? Hal Mumme- HPSlugga Others? Machinator = Skynet
September 3, 20196 yr 11 minutes ago, texifornia said: Lol he dropped OK State of all teams? Texas is now 23, between #22 Mizzou (fucking lol) and #24 Oregon (sure, they actually looked decent in that loss) Without the five factor box scores it's not going to be pretty difficult to guess who is likely to move up and down each week. It's not like you can quickly glean success rate from a regular box score.
September 3, 20196 yr 9 minutes ago, Fozzz said: Without the five factor box scores it's not going to be pretty difficult to guess who is likely to move up and down each week. It's not like you can quickly glean success rate from a regular box score. Hi, Bill! Your Mizzou Tigers may have shit the bed in Laramie, but at least they still look good in SP+
September 3, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, texifornia said: Remember that conference is one of the inputs. So now he can make it both the dependent and independent variable on his graph.
September 3, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, texifornia said: Love how he points out SEC falling to try to preemptively counteract the SEC bias arguments, when all that does is show his preseason numbers systematically overrated the SEC by a drastic margin. impressively, most of the SEC teams are still overrated even after dropping a lot this week. Edited September 3, 20196 yr by Burt Macklin
September 3, 20196 yr @Fozzz, you've gotta relax buddy. We're just mildly ripping on a somewhat pompous guy and his statistical formula here. This would be some astonishingly thin-skinned shit even if you were Bill C himself.
September 3, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, texifornia said: @Fozzz, you've gotta relax buddy. We're just mildly ripping on a somewhat pompous guy and his statistical formula here. This would be some astonishingly thin-skinned shit even if you were Bill C himself. You're not familiar with Fozzz, I take it.
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