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Featured Replies

Ariz St at home +3 vs. Stanford

NC State +18.5@ Clemson

looking at these

 

Oklahoma -7.5  ?   @ TCU..   that number really seems low.   TCU has become a turnover machine, and ou is fucking pissed at getting pantsed by us. 

I want to think USF -31 vs  UConn because UConn sucks ass.... but Charlie sucks balls at covering.

Kansas +18 @ Tech.    Kansas is bad. but I dont know if they are 18 points bad, expecially since Tech is riding high on their win vs TCU. 

 

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yeah, TCU seems to be falling apart. I'm intrigued by the new OU Def braintrust, will it show immediately vs. TCU? Will TCU turn it over 3 times as usual lately? If Tech can beat them with a 3rd string QB, Kyler Murray will go wild. Good pick, OU IMO. 

NC State +18  Am flabbergasted by this line by gladly grabbed it and played it big.

34 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

NC State +18  Am flabbergasted by this line by gladly grabbed it and played it big.

Why flabbergasted? It's a tough game to handicap. I would probably stay away. I could see it being close, but honestly, Clemson should wax ncsu. 

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Clemson has won the last 3 games with NCSt by 7, 7, and 15.  

Counter to that is ncsu is 5-0 but with a very weak schedule. 

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LSU -6.5 at home vs. Miss St.

11 hours ago, NowThis said:

Clemson has won the last 3 games with NCSt by 7, 7, and 15.  

Counter to that is ncsu is 5-0 but with a very weak schedule. 

Yeah, a tough one to handicap, and 18 does seem a bit high. Best I could find, it opened at 18/18.5 and dropped to 17 almost immediately. 

It's definitely a tough, hate-filled series, and like you said, it's been close lately. Other things in favor of it being close are NCSU has a good OL, Finley is a good QB who executes the short passing game flawlessly, and Gallaspy is running strong. Depending on what site you are using, and what stats you are looking at, NCSU is 11th in total offense and 21st in total defense. 

On the other side, last year's game was in Raleigh, NCSU was loaded with upperclassmen, including 7 draft picks, with 4 DL taken before the 5th round. Clemson was so decimated by injuries that they had a WR playing DB, and Clemson still won. This year Clemson is as healthy as they have been in awhile, the game is in Death Valley, and Clemson is very balanced. #5 in total offense and #3 in total defense. Most interesting to me is finding out if Clemson's rushing offense is going to keep dominating opponents. 

The line does seem high, but I'm not sure it's as insane as it first seemed. Sagarin would have it at 15. Who knows.... 

12 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Why flabbergasted? It's a tough game to handicap. I would probably stay away. I could see it being close, but honestly, Clemson should wax ncsu. 

Yeah, flabbergasted is a bit much.  But I don't know if Clemson should wax NCSU by any stretch. Clemson's played one team this season that can pass and A&M went up and down the field against them. Long story short, I just love Ryan Finley in this matchup - experienced, takes care of the ball, makes great decisions and spreads the ball around,  and has had success against Clemson (350 passing yards last season). Of course that was in Raleigh so a different landscape this season, but Finley is a vet and isn't likely to be fazed too much in Death Valley. Clemson's obviously runs the ball well and NC State defends it (both top 10 nationally).  Just feels like another tight game in the series and, at a minimum, I get Finley throwing at the end for a backdoor, but I think it will be closer than that. 

Now, watch, Clemson will win 52-17.

 

OU -7.5 against TCU seems like a good play this week. I have to imagine they come out angry and inspired to beat the shit out of a struggling Frogs team.

put a unit on Utah State and the over.  they are 6-0 on the season for both.  this will be the week they lose both, but worth a shot.  16 and 51.5 respectively.

On 10/16/2018 at 10:21 AM, NOMAAA said:

put a unit on Utah State and the over.  they are 6-0 on the season for both.  this will be the week they lose both, but worth a shot.  16 and 51.5 respectively.

I think that's a decent play. Wyo is just not good this year. Day game in Laramie with perfect weather. Only concern would be a backdoor because USU has been getting way up on teams and then giving up garbage points in the 4th. Even then, state has still been covering.  OC is in his 2nd year and has them clicking. 

i got asu +2.5.  and ga state o57.5. 

 

gonna roll with these 2 plus some of the others suggested above.

duke -7

Bama -29

 

USF moved -33, which I just think is too much reliance on Charlie to cover.

USF -34

As noted, that team is so undisciplined.  But UConn is so very bad.   I mentioned in week 1 how thin they were and how that would continue to plague UConn as the season wore on.   Have no choice but to continue riding how crappy they are and their perfect (losing) record v. the spread.  I"m sure Charlah will figure out a way to fuck this up, but oh well. 

Teams I feel confident about this week:

OU -7.5 (will be angry after having the bye week to stew over loss to Texas)

Utah State -15 (perfect against spread so far, Wyoming is terrible)

UCF -20.5 (almost perfect against spread so far, ECU is terrible)

Teams that I'm reasonably confident about but not as much as the first 3:

App State -24.5 (perfect against spread so far, Ulala is terrible)

Army -7.5 (Army is decent, and Miami OH is not a good team)

UNT +0.5 (UNT has struggled the past 2 weeks, but they are still good.  They should beat UAB).

Honorable mentions:

Cincy +3 (almost perfect against spread so far, they should be favored vs Temple)

WSU -1.5 (perfect against the spread so far.  Coming off the bye week and hosting Oregon, who just had a big win over Washington)

NCState +17.5 (this team always seems to play Clemson close, and Clemson has struggle this season)

Edited by Xcalibur

Liking Michigan State tomorrow?  You've got reason.

Jesus.

The Michigan-Michigan State rivalry has had plenty of nerve-wracking endings of late, but against the spread, the matchup has been completely one-sided.

Michigan State is 10-0 ATS in the last 10 seasons against Michigan, covering by an average of 13 points per game. The trends favoring the Spartans +7.5 over Michigan doesn't end there. MSU coach Mark Dantonio is 20-8-1 ATS as Big Ten underdog and is 16-4-1 ATS with as a conference underdog against teams off back-to-back wins.

https://www.betchicago.com/week-8-big-ten-college-football-betting-lines-standings-predictions

played these

Oklahoma -8  2 units

purdue +13  1u

kansas +19.5   .5u

duke -7  .5u

bama -29    1u

NC State  ML  .5u   (fuck it, go hard)

parlay  Utah St -14.5 &  Over 51 in thee Utah st/wyoming game   .5u

Something from Steve Coughlin's (Stanford Steve from espn/SVP) and Chris Fallica's podcast stood out to me. Since 1994, teams that were undefeated with at least 5 wins who were more than 14 (I think, it might be 17) point dogs (on the road of course) failed to cover in the eight times this has happened. With that being said, I have:

Clemson -17.5

Oklahoma -7.5

Alabama -29

Miss. St +6.5

Purdue +12

 

The Bear likes to pull out arbitrary stats over 25 to 30 years years but they don't often pay many dividends.  We'll see about today.

ARMY -7.5 I love what Jeff Monken is doing w/ his team. 

LSU -6 .  Night game in Baton Rouge, bye week next week before Bama and a big revenge game for them.  I continue to believe that any DC who can't defend Miss. State right now should be fired. Fitzgerald is just flat out terrible in the air, completing, what, 45% of his passes?.  Miss. State's entire offense feels like a Fitzgerald run right, and then a Fitzgerald run left, and then another one to the right. And given how good LSU is in the secondary and poor MSU is in the air, Aranda can pretty much commit to letting his corners take care of MSU's WRs and letting everyone else play within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage to just shut down Fitzgerald running, and thus shut down MSU's offense. I can't see Miss State putting up many points in this game at all. 
 

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IU + 13.5 at home vs. PSU 

Iowa -8.5 at home vs Maryland 

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TxTech tt over 38.5 vs. Kansas.  Raiders will hit 50 

OU over 34.5 @ TCU 

SoFl over 50 vs. Uconn 

My bets this week:

ASU +3 lost…

Nebraska -4

Purdue ML (half my normal bet)

Purdue +12.5

USC +7

Fresno State -13

Wazzu -3

Colorado +15.5

Virginia +7

Temple -3

Think this will be my week.....

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nice backdoor cover for Temple -3 in OT 

3-4 in terms of bets made, but up 1.5 units in terms of sizing. 

First time this year that all my larger bets held up

8-2 this week which helped cover some of my earlier loses.  

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