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#24051
8 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

I assumed it was a missile. Flying below radar in the dark is impressive.


im sure they had an assist with that one 

Edited by tx 3 putt

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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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#24052
2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Absolutely.  But we get into a "real" war with Russia, it won't stop (assuming no nukes) at Russia's border.  It won't be like the first gulf war where we "just stop".  They can marshal untold numbers in defense of their homeland.  We've seen them stumble before, only to coalesce and fuck people up.   

Let's not get out over our skis just yet.  This is only the first quarter....

Yeah, you get onto Russian soil and you get into "land war in Asia" trap territory. 

 

#24055

Gazprom is exiting operations in its German daughter firm Gazprom Germania Gmbh. Gazprom Germania also has subsidiaries in the Czech Republic and Switzerland.  This is coming in the middle of fights over pricing for gas deliveries (of course, Putin wants them to pay in rubles) and a recent article in a trade newspaper that said Germany was considering nationalization of Gazprom Germania and the German branch of Rosneft.

We may be fixing to see who can withstand pain longer . . .

#24057

It’s hard to sort everything out, but sounds like the Russians have pulled out of even more areas near Kyiv.  Some are even saying they are trying to avoid being encircled or cut off by Ukrainian forces. 

#24058
2 minutes ago, texastough said:

Back to Japan claiming sovereignty over the southern Kuril Islands. Man I wish other countries like Finland who have lost territory to Russia would follow suit. Seems it would be the best way to help Ukraine right now short of direct NATO involvement. Divert Russia's military resources and attention from Ukraine. And, playing the long game, could help take out Putin. I know support for the Ukraine war is strong now, but if Putin came out of this with nothing of value gained in Ukraine, and loss of territory to Japan, Finland, etc., I imagine his support would take a huge hit in the homeland. Combined with sanctions eventually taking a huge toll on Russians, I don't see how Putin could survive it.

Nobody propagandas like Ivan.  This "us vs the world" narrative would fill every house.  We also assume the next leader is better?  What if he's ten times worse?  Too many variables to even work through. 

They need an on-ramp to get back.  That should be the message.  You stop.  We stop.  Regime change is implied, but never directly a stated goal.   

#24059
2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are those mines defective? Or just not designed to detonate when kicked from the side?

if they are anti tank they probably have a weight limit trigger

#24060
2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are those mines defective? Or just not designed to detonate when kicked from the side?

No clue, but they damn sure are not "anti tank".  Tiny little things.  Take off your legs, etc.  

#24061
2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We may be fixing to see who can withstand pain longer . . .

Yep.  Been my point all along.  Who can stand the heat the longest.  Attrition tends to work that way.  

#24062
15 minutes ago, texastough said:

Back to Japan claiming sovereignty over the southern Kuril Islands. Man I wish other countries like Finland who have lost territory to Russia would follow suit. Seems it would be the best way to help Ukraine right now short of direct NATO involvement. Divert Russia's military resources and attention from Ukraine. And, playing the long game, could help take out Putin. I know support for the Ukraine war is strong now, but if Putin came out of this with nothing of value gained in Ukraine, and loss of territory to Japan, Finland, etc., I imagine his support would take a huge hit in the homeland. Combined with sanctions eventually taking a huge toll on Russians, I don't see how Putin could survive it.

The difference is that the Kurile Islands are a longstanding dispute dating back to the post-World War II years that neither side has ever backed down on.  Finland has no territorial disputes with Russia.  I also think that as we try to keep global opinion pushing against Russia, we need to be careful of appearing opportunistic or playing into Russia's narrative. 

#24063
12 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Absolutely.  But we get into a "real" war with Russia, it won't stop (assuming no nukes) at Russia's border.  It won't be like the first gulf war where we "just stop".  They can marshal untold numbers in defense of their homeland.  We've seen them stumble before, only to coalesce and fuck people up.   

Let's not get out over our skis just yet.  This is only the first quarter....

China or India could marshall untold numbers. Russia's current population is 50 million less than it was during world war 2. At the time, they had 60 million more people than the United States. Today, they have less than half our population. While your point isn't entirely invalid, let's not exaggerate Russia's manpower. The situation just isn't the same. (Yes, I realize the larger number also includes some former Soviet territories)

Edited by Dahobbs

#24064
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

China or India could marshall untold numbers. Russia's current population is 50 million less than it was during world war 2. At the time, they had 60 million more people than the United States. Today, they have less than half our population. While your point isn't entirely invalid, let's not exaggerate Russia's manpower. The situation just isn't the same. 

Everyone is high fiving over a few thousand dead Russians.  They gave up a hundred thousand against the Fins.  The aggregate isn't the point.  The point is they are willing and have shown they will blanket a conflict with millions of people and sacrifice them if necessary.  We will not.  Europe will not.  

#24065
5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

we need to be careful of appearing opportunistic or playing into Russia's narrative. 

This

#24066
7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Everyone is high fiving over a few thousand dead Russians.  They gave up a hundred thousand against the Fins.  The aggregate isn't the point.  The point is they are willing and have shown they will blanket a conflict with millions of people and sacrifice them if necessary.  We will not.  Europe will not.  

If we are talking about nuclear war, manpower is irrelevant. I was speaking more to its ability marshal additional troops if smaller powers try and use this as an opportunity to take back some territory claimed by Russia. 

Edited by Dahobbs

#24067
11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s hard to sort everything out, but sounds like the Russians have pulled out of even more areas near Kyiv.  Some are even saying they are trying to avoid being encircled or cut off by Ukrainian forces. 

Example:

 

#24068

UK going into Russia , albeit awesome to see, is one of the things a recent Russian spokesman said would put Nukes on the table. He said a “threat to the state” or something to that effected is the only way they would use them. 

Edited by jdhorn92

#24070
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

If we are talking about nuclear war, manpower is irrelevant

I addressed this

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I was speaking more to it's ability Marshall additional troops if smaller powers try and use this as an opportunity to take back some territory claimed by Russia. 

They still have tens of millions of available people if necessary.  Quibbling over the aggregate is just tap dancing on a pin head.  Defending against an invasion is very, very different from going INTO Russian territory and trying to take it back. 

#24071
15 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are those mines defective? Or just not designed to detonate when kicked from the side?

It takes considerably more pressure to trigger an anti-tank mine than an anti-personnel mine.  You don't want to waste the additional explosive power required to take out a tank on an individual.  Those mines were hastily laid, with no booby traps for sappers clearing them, so without the pressure on the trigger and no secondary triggering devices, it makes sense that they can be cleared that way.  Still a ballsy way to do it.

#24072
4 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Still a ballsy way to do it.

Treat 'em like tannerite and take pop shots at them.....;)

All kidding aside, UA gear is Russian gear.  They must have a deep understanding of most of it from years of purchase and training.  

Edited by BabaYaga

#24074
8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

It can't be overstated how significant this his and how horrifying this has to have been to Russian military leadership. 

6 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

UK going into Russia , albeit awesome to see, is one of the things a recent Russian spokesman said would put Nukes on the table. He said a “threat to the state” or something to that effected is the only way they would use them. 

They aren't going to do shit about this. 

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Example:

 

Gawd the Russians are fucking stupid. This stuff should be used to cover their retreat/repositioning and attack the Ukrainian military. Those are the guys who are blowing up your shit and killing your troops! 

I mean, I'm happy to see that Russia continues to fuck the goat hard but this is incredible incompetence.

#24075
40 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

This.  100% this.

This got me thinking about all the cheers about the inept Russian advances.  I forgot the Russians lost almost 100K men to the Finnish.  Europe chided them for their inept showing, and according to some historians, helped change the mind (or advance his timetable) Of Hitler to break their alliance and invade.  We all know how that turned out.

Napoleon as well.  Bolstered by earlier victories, the Russians "ripe" to be taken over.  Again, sound familiar?  

I hope the UA can hold on, but Russia and throw a smothering blanket of men at them.  Overconfidence can lead to rash decisions - talks of a NFZ, direct NATO involvement, etc.  Here's to hoping we stay the course in supplying aid and material to the UA, but a direct conflict can see this spill over if we are not careful.

 

32 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

It ended there, but was precipitated by failed Russian advances.  We get into a shooting war with Russia, borders mean little.  The point was initial hubris can often lead to failed campaigns.  We need to slow our roll a little here.

This is definitely entering the "whoa there, young fella.....let's WALK down there and fuck all of 'em" stage.  Rushing ahead, overpressing any number of advantages, etc., is a good way to 1) get overextended and smoked by a counterattack, or 2) simply invite even more massive and indiscriminate attacks.  Waves of Russian bombers stacked full of 500 lb bombs, with the Russians not giving a fuck that you shoot down a few of them, can level a few cities.

Ukraine has to figure out how and where to press its advantage, and do so deliberately towards a specific end goal.  What is that end goal?  Not sure yet....

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Gazprom is exiting operations in its German daughter firm Gazprom Germania Gmbh. Gazprom Germania also has subsidiaries in the Czech Republic and Switzerland.  This is coming in the middle of fights over pricing for gas deliveries (of course, Putin wants them to pay in rubles) and a recent article in a trade newspaper that said Germany was considering nationalization of Gazprom Germania and the German branch of Rosneft.

We may be fixing to see who can withstand pain longer . . .

This is where it starts to get real for the rest of Europe.

Let's repeat this point: Germany abandoning its nuclear power was dumb as fuck.

21 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Nobody propagandas like Ivan.  This "us vs the world" narrative would fill every house.  We also assume the next leader is better?  What if he's ten times worse?  Too many variables to even work through. 

They need an on-ramp to get back.  That should be the message.  You stop.  We stop.  Regime change is implied, but never directly a stated goal.   

 

18 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The difference is that the Kurile Islands are a longstanding dispute dating back to the post-World War II years that neither side has ever backed down on.  Finland has no territorial disputes with Russia.  I also think that as we try to keep global opinion pushing against Russia, we need to be careful of appearing opportunistic or playing into Russia's narrative. 

Re: the off ramp from the war, on-ramp back into global commerce in some way......that still has to be one of the plays.  At this point, we're talking gambling and game theory.

Pushing Russian forces back to some acceptable line, and offering an off-ramp that allows the regime to stay in power while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty is like cashing out on a stock after you've made a bundle.  It's a good outcome.  Maybe the stock will go to the stratosphere later.  Or, maybe it will be Theranos.

Playing for the total win -- push Russia out of every corner of Ukraine, humiliate it, and hope for regime change?  Well, that's putting all the chips on the table, with a much lower chance of success.

Risks, rewards, tolerances for ongoing pain, all of those are in play.  That decision making and strategy is actually harder and more perilous than the act of warfighting itself.  Battles are where individual lives and pieces of territory are won or lost.  The decisions at the Zelensky level are where countries are won or lost.

#24078

And whoopsie I’m too slow.

 

 The invasion of Russia is about to begin?  Hope Ukraine stays in its lane here and doesn’t make the mistake of pursuing.  
 

Mcarthur at the Yalu comes to mind…

#24080
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

This feels way too optimistic, but the OSINT map nerds are definitely tracking a lot of Russian withdrawals/defeats all over the place.  
 

 

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:
This is starting to sound interesting…

 

 

Honestly to me this screams "retreat to Belarus- then redirect by going through Russia to redeply in the East"

 

and what we are seeing is some unlucky Russian saps (5-10% of the main force in the area) were ordered to be the sacrificial rear guard

 

its kinda looking like a Dunkirk situation. 

If the Russians get to Belarus, they will be safe (Ukraine would really cause issues if they pressed the attack into Belarus), and whatever equipment the Russians  have left would then allow them to redploy  relatively safely through Russia to the other side.  albeit that might take 2 weeks.

#24081
4 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

And whoopsie I’m too slow.

 

 The invasion of Russia is about to begin?  Hope Ukraine stays in its lane here and doesn’t make the mistake of pursuing.  
 

Mcarthur at the Yalu comes to mind…

That would be not just taking bait, but taking decoy bait.

Ukraine needs to keep forces deployed around Kyiv to defend against a second Russian (or even Belarussian) attack.  And the forces it DOES re-deploy....need to head east, to push back Russian advances there.  Slow and steady attrition and punishment wins this race.

#24083
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That would be not just taking bait, but taking decoy bait.

Ukraine needs to keep forces deployed around Kyiv to defend against a second Russian (or even Belarussian) attack.  And the forces it DOES re-deploy....need to head east, to push back Russian advances there.  Slow and steady attrition and punishment wins this race.

I would argue Ukrainian forces should re-deploy south first, to relieve Mariupol, hopefully cut off supply lines coming through Crimea, and avoid being surrounded by russian forces in the east. But I don't know shit

#24084

From March 15.   Claims Russia would be in serious trouble by the 25th-26th.  Mark Hertling said something similar.  While slightly off by less than a week, it looks like they were right   

 

#24085
44 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


im sure they had an assist with that one 

I’m curious if the assist wasn’t a bit of radar evasive tech from route planning up to and including some toys we might have that aren’t well publicized.

#24086
4 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

 

 

Honestly to me this screams "retreat to Belarus- then redirect by going through Russia to redeply in the East"

 

and what we are seeing is some unlucky Russian saps (5-10% of the main force in the area) were ordered to be the sacrificial rear guard

 

its kinda looking like a Dunkirk situation. 

If the Russians get to Belarus, they will be safe (Ukraine would really cause issues if they pressed the attack into Belarus), and whatever equipment the Russians  have left would then allow them to redploy  relatively safely through Russia to the other side.  albeit that might take 2 weeks.

How much damage can Ukraine do to those retreating Russians?

As far as invading Belarus in the chase, Ukraine has been very disciplined in this war so far.  Losing their head and going into Belarus would be out of character.

#24088
Just now, Parliament said:

How much damage can Ukraine do to those retreating Russians?

As far as invading Belarus in the chase, Ukraine has been very disciplined in this war so far.  Losing their head and going into Belarus would be out of character.

They should do all that they reasonably can.  Every blowed up tank and blowed up soldier is one more that can't re-deploy and attack from the east.  The Ukrainian military goals need to remain 1) recapture territory where feasble, and 2) degrade Russian capabilities through attrition and supply destruction as much as possible.

#24089
20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ukraine has to figure out how and where to press its advantage, and do so deliberately towards a specific end goal.  What is that end goal?  Not sure yet....

49 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This is where I struggle.  I don't think they can push Russia out.  Russia can establish the land bridge to Crimea, and they just fortify and sit on it.  This might be the concession.

#24090
1 minute ago, Parliament said:

How much damage can Ukraine do to those retreating Russians?

As far as invading Belarus in the chase, Ukraine has been very disciplined in this war so far.  Losing their head and going into Belarus would be out of character.

Belarus is ripe for a revolution but if I were Ukraine I wouldn't focus on them. Belarus isn't much of a risk since their leadership is too afraid of their own population to ever mount an attack on Ukraine. 

#24091
5 minutes ago, texastough said:

I would argue Ukrainian forces should re-deploy south first, to relieve Mariupol, hopefully cut off supply lines coming through Crimea, and avoid being surrounded by russian forces in the east. But I don't know shit

Maybe.  I don't know the exact opposition on the ground in the competing potential points for counter-attack.  For now, Ukraine should deploy additional forces where it would do the most good.  That might be due east, it may be southeast -- I sure don't have that level of info.

#24092
6 minutes ago, texastough said:

I would argue Ukrainian forces should re-deploy south first, to relieve Mariupol, hopefully cut off supply lines coming through Crimea, and avoid being surrounded by russian forces in the east. But I don't know shit

This is what the push around Kherson is about.  Cut off the Crimean line to Mariupol at the narrowest point.  

#24093
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

The difference with the Falaise pocket was mechanized units that were fast moving.  I do not know if the UA has this capability?  This was facilitated by a massive breakout from the Normandy invasion and OVERWHELMING air power. 

#24094
1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

This is where I struggle.  I don't think they can push Russia out.  Russia can establish the land bridge to Crimea, and they just fortify and sit on it.  This might be the concession.

Ultimately, I think that's what it will be.  A bridge between Donbass and Crimea.

But in exchange, Russia will have caused itself unspeakable damage, re-invigorated NATO (and maybe expanded it -- welcome, Sweden and Finland), re-invigorated the EU, crippled its ability to influence the West (RT isn't going to be allowed back in -- ever), lost some long-term markets for its gas, and solidified a sovereign Ukraine for generations to come.  That juice ain't worth the squeeze.  But it's still juice, at Ukraine's expense, and Putin can call that a "win."

#24095
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ultimately, I think that's what it will be.  A bridge between Donbass and Crimea.

But in exchange, Russia will have caused itself unspeakable damage, re-invigorated NATO (and maybe expanded it -- welcome, Sweden and Finland), re-invigorated the EU, crippled its ability to influence the West (RT isn't going to be allowed back in -- ever), lost some long-term markets for its gas, and solidified a sovereign Ukraine for generations to come.  That juice ain't worth the squeeze.  But it's still juice, at Ukraine's expense, and Putin can call that a "win."

They also still have roughly 40% of the EU's energy needs at their fingertips.  It could take a substantial amount of time to find alternatives to this.  Any incursion west was going to reinvigorate NATO.  I think Putin knew this.  He just didn't understand the nature of the Ukes and their desire to stay independent.  

#24096

So Russia is engaged in a strategic retreat?

I assume this is well planned and organized reorganizing of Russian forces in the Ukrainian theater.

 

#24097
7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

This is where I struggle.  I don't think they can push Russia out.  Russia can establish the land bridge to Crimea, and they just fortify and sit on it.  This might be the concession.

 

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ultimately, I think that's what it will be.  A bridge between Donbass and Crimea.

 

This is the most optimistic outcome for Russia at this point. Not the most likely.

For example, Russia's losses in the battle for Mariupol have been so great that these troops won't be available to do anything other than to occupy the city, and even then it may not be enough. 

Russia is having more success in the south than elsewhere, but the cost has been extremely high. Russian leadership's attitude towards human losses isn't what is relevant here - it's the fact that they just don't have enough capable bodies and hardware to keep fighting this way. 

What are the indications that Russia will do anything different that could lead to success? Everyone is talking about Russia entering a "second phase" - do the Russians even know what that is?

#24099
1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

It ended there, but was precipitated by failed Russian advances.  We get into a shooting war with Russia, borders mean little.  The point was initial hubris can often lead to failed campaigns.  We need to slow our roll a little here.

Wait wait shouldn't it be all gas and no brakes? Oh SHIT you're right! Slow down boys!

#24100

Yeah I don’t think Russia gets to keep the lane bridge unless it wins some convincing battles in the south.  Momentum is a hell of a thing, and the amount of weaponry that Ukraine has received means they can throw a lot at retreating Russians.  
 

Russia made a huge miscalculation in not hitting enough infrastructure but I fully expect them to start really working on making it hard for Ukraine to retake anything past the Dnipr in the south.

 

 Crimea stays Russian but Mariupol won’t.  And that means the whole thing was an utter failure for Putin.

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