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#44201
2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

They list the helicopters separately on the graphic.

I don't trust the aircraft losses reported by Ukraine. Those numbers have always looked grossly inflated. There were some artillery attacks on airfields (Crimea and the one in Chornobaivka which liked to get pounded in the ass more than a NowThis wet dream) which can account for some of those losses but having +500 losses for all air assets seems extremely optimistic.

Not that RU airforce hasn't been MIA for quite some time and has been probably the biggest surprise in those whole war. I've just chalked it up to Russia finally realizing that the risk/reward was not worth it once Ukraine started beefing up anti-air capabilities.

 

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#44202
12 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html?smid=tw-share 

U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

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U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

American officials said they were not aware of the plan ahead of time for the attack that killed Daria Dugina and that they had admonished Ukraine over it.

Daria Dugina’s memorial service in Moscow in August. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the attack that killed her.Daria Dugina’s memorial service in Moscow in August. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the attack that killed her.Credit...Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

By Julian E. BarnesAdam GoldmanAdam Entous and Michael Schwirtz
Oct. 5, 2022Updated 1:29 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON — United States intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, an element of a covert campaign that U.S. officials fear could widen the conflict.

The United States took no part in the attack, either by providing intelligence or other assistance, officials said. American officials also said they were not aware of the operation ahead of time and would have opposed the killing had they been consulted. Afterward, American officials admonished Ukrainian officials over the assassination, they said.

The closely held assessment of Ukrainian complicity, which has not been previously reported, was shared within the U.S. government last week. Ukraine denied involvement in the killing immediately after the attack, and senior officials repeated those denials when asked about the American intelligence assessment.

While Russia has not retaliated in a specific way for the assassination, the United States is concerned that such attacks — while high in symbolic value — have little direct impact on the battlefield and could provoke Moscow to carry out its own strikes against senior Ukrainian officials. American officials have been frustrated with Ukraine’s lack of transparency about its military and covert plans, especially on Russian soil.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s security services have demonstrated their ability to reach into Russia to conduct sabotage operations. The killing of Ms. Dugina, however, would be one of the boldest operations to date — showing Ukraine can get very close to prominent Russians.

 

In a handout photo released by the Investigative Committee of Russia, investigators worked at the scene of the car blast that killed Ms. Dugina.In a handout photo released by the Investigative Committee of Russia, investigators worked at the scene of the car blast that killed Ms. Dugina.Credit...Investigative Committee Of Russia, via Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Some American officials suspect Ms. Dugina’s father, Aleksandr Dugin, a Russian ultranationalist, was the actual target of the operation, and that the operatives who carried it out believed he would be in the vehicle with his daughter.

Mr. Dugin, one of Russia’s most prominent voices urging Moscow to intensify its war on Ukraine, has been a leading proponent of an aggressive, imperialist Russia.

The American officials who spoke about the intelligence did not disclose which elements of the Ukrainian government were believed to have authorized the mission, who carried out the attack, or whether President Volodymyr Zelensky had signed off on the mission. United States officials briefed on the Ukrainian action and the American response spoke on the condition of anonymity, in order to discuss secret information and matters of sensitive diplomacy.

U.S. officials would not say who in the American government delivered the admonishments or whom in the Ukrainian government they were delivered to. It was not known what Ukraine’s response was.

While the Pentagon and spy agencies have shared sensitive battlefield intelligence with the Ukrainians, helping them zero in on Russian command posts, supply lines and other key targets, the Ukrainians have not always told American officials what they plan to do.

The United States has pressed Ukraine to share more about its war plans, with mixed success. Earlier in the war, U.S. officials acknowledged that they often knew more about Russian war plans — thanks to their intense collection efforts — than they did about Kyiv’s intentions.

Cooperation has since increased. During the summer, Ukraine shared its plans for its September military counteroffensive with the United States and Britain.

U.S. officials also lack a complete picture of the competing power centers within the Ukrainian government, including the military, the security services and Mr. Zelensky’s office, a fact that may explain why some parts of the Ukrainian government may not have been aware of the plot.

When asked about the U.S. intelligence assessment, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, reiterated the Ukrainian government’s denials of involvement in Ms. Dugina’s killing.

“Again, I’ll underline that any murder during wartime in some country or another must carry with it some kind of practical significance,” Mr. Podolyak told The New York Times in an interview on Tuesday. “It should fulfill some specific purpose, tactical or strategic. Someone like Dugina is not a tactical or a strategic target for Ukraine.

“We have other targets on the territory of Ukraine,” he said, “I mean collaborationists and representatives of the Russian command, who might have value for members of our special services working in this program, but certainly not Dugina.”

Though details surrounding acts of sabotage in Russian-controlled territory have been shrouded in mystery, the Ukrainian government has quietly acknowledged killing Russian officials in Ukraine and sabotaging Russian arms factories and weapons depots.

A senior Ukrainian military official who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the topic, said that Ukrainian forces, with the help of local fighters, had carried out assassinations and attacks on accused Ukrainian collaborators and Russian officials in occupied Ukrainian territories. These include the Kremlin-installed mayor of the Kherson region, who was poisoned in August and had to be evacuated to Moscow for emergency treatment.

Countries traditionally do not discuss other nations’ covert actions, for fear of having their own operations revealed, but some American officials believe it is crucial to curb what they see as dangerous adventurism, particularly political assassinations.

Still, American officials in recent days have taken pains to insist that relations between the two governments remain strong. U.S. concerns about Ukraine’s aggressive covert operations inside Russia have not prompted any known changes in the provision of intelligence, military and diplomatic support to Mr. Zelensky’s government or to Ukraine’s security services.

In a phone call on Saturday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, that the Biden administration “will continue to support Ukraine’s efforts to regain control of its territory by strengthening its hand militarily and diplomatically,” according to Ned Price, the State Department’s spokesman.

Officials from the State Department, National Security Council, Pentagon and C.I.A. declined to comment on the intelligence assessment.

The war in Ukraine is at an especially dangerous moment. The United States has tried carefully to avoid unnecessary escalation with Moscow throughout the conflict — in part by telling Kyiv not to use American equipment or intelligence to conduct attacks inside of Russia. But now, the recent battlefield successes by Ukraine have prompted Russia to respond with a series of escalatory steps, like conducting a partial mobilization and moving to annex swathes of eastern Ukraine.

Concern is growing in Washington that Russia may be considering further steps to intensify the war, including by renewing efforts to assassinate prominent Ukrainian leaders. Mr. Zelensky would be the top target of Russian assassination teams, as he was during the Russian assault on Kyiv earlier in the war.

But now, American officials said Russia could target a wide variety of Ukrainian leaders, many of whom have less protection than Mr. Zelensky.

The United States and Europe had imposed sanctions on Ms. Dugina. She shared her father’s worldview and was accused by the West of spreading Russian propaganda about Ukraine.

Russia opened a murder investigation after Ms. Dugina’s assassination, calling the explosion that killed her a terrorist act. Ms. Dugina was killed instantly in the explosion, which occurred in the Odintsovo district, an affluent area in Moscow’s suburbs.

After the bombing, speculation centered on whether Ukraine was responsible or if it was a false flag operation meant to pin blame on Ukrainians. The bombing took place after a series of Ukrainian strikes in Crimea, part of Ukraine that Russia seized in 2014. Those strikes had led ultranationalists in Mr. Dugin’s circle to urge Mr. Putin to intensify the war in Ukraine.

Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the F.S.B., blamed Ms. Dugina’s murder on Ukraine’s intelligence services. In an announcement made a day after the attack, the F.S.B. said that Ukrainian operatives had contracted a Ukrainian woman, who entered Russia in July and rented an apartment where Ms. Dugina lived. The woman then fled Russia after the bombing, according to the F.S.B.

Ilya Ponomarev, a former member of the Russian Duma who voted against the annexation of Crimea, has claimed that a group made up of pro-Ukrainian and anti-Putin fighters operating in Russia known as the National Republican Army was responsible for the killing.

In an interview with The New York Times, Mr. Ponomarev claimed to be in contact with the National Republican Army and was aware of the operation against Ms. Dugina several hours before it occurred. Many officials in Washington have been skeptical of Mr. Ponomarev’s claims on behalf of the group.

 

So an un-named official believes Ukraine was behind the assassination.  Seems like the sole purpose of that story is to try and drive a wedge between the US and Ukraine.

#44203
2 minutes ago, dimyh said:

I don't trust the aircraft losses reported by Ukraine. Those numbers have always looked grossly inflated. There were some artillery attacks on airfields (Crimea and the one in Chornobaivka which liked to get pounded in the ass more than a NowThis wet dream) which can account for some of those losses but having +500 losses for all air assets seems extremely optimistic.

Not that RU airforce hasn't been MIA for quite some time and has been probably the biggest surprise in those whole war. I've just chalked it up to Russia finally realizing that the risk/reward was not worth it once Ukraine started beefing up anti-air capabilities.

 

And also that the majority of their airplanes are actually cardboard mockups sitting at airfields around the country, because the money to build the planes went to building General Ivanov's  numerous dachas in Crimea.

#44204
17 minutes ago, Kwix said:

So an un-named official believes Ukraine was behind the assassination.  Seems like the sole purpose of that story is to try and drive a wedge between the US and Ukraine.

Was that unnamed official Maggie Haberman?

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#44205
3 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

This has the whiff of setting up Kadyrov to fail and making him a(n e)scapegoat.

25 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I love the dude coming out of the woods. Forward scouts are the best. 

Dipshits.  Turn your fucking turret around and aim the cannon as high as it will go.  That's the signal for a surrendering tank/IFV.

#44206
8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This has the whiff of setting up Kadyrov to fail and making him a(n e)scapegoat.

Dipshits.  Turn your fucking turret around and aim the cannon as high as it will go.  That's the signal for a surrendering tank/IFV.

So you served with the French in 1941? I kid! 

Yeah, and also some comments are stating this was a training operation/PR. 

Concerning Kadyrov. If he fails fuck yeah! A victory for humanity. There are a few of us who think that fucker was instrumental in creating ISIS. 

#44209
28 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Dipshits.  Turn your fucking turret around and aim the cannon as high as it will go.  That's the signal for a surrendering tank/IFV.

Like the Russian army actually trains its troops in tasks as complex as "how to operate the turret of your vehicle."  All the guys who knew how to do that are long-dead.

#44210
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Like the Russian army actually trains its troops in tasks as complex as "how to operate the turret of your vehicle."  All the guys who knew how to do that are long-dead.

So - no Disney instructions on how to hang on to the turret for ‘Mr. Manpads Wild Ride’??

#44212
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Like the Russian army actually trains its troops in tasks as complex as "how to operate the turret of your vehicle."  All the guys who knew how to do that are long-dead.

buncha potato farmers wearing adidas on their legs, trying to find rotate on a soviet tank.  this is not a worthy adversary.

#44214
8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

So how long before Kadyrov falls from a tenth story window?

It kind of needs to be soon.  Because you can begin to see the outline of the warlord-ization of Russia.  Between Kadyrov and Prigozhin, you already have two sizable private armies in Russia that are probably as well-equipped and capable as the federal army.  For the moment, the Kadyrovites and Wagner remain loyal to Putin.  But that could change at any time (either because Putin is deposed or because Kadyrov/Prigozhin mutiny).  And if that happens, it's not at all clear to me how that would go.

It could very well be that you have something that looks like China from 1910 to 1949.  But with nuclear weapons.  And I don't think that's a particularly good thing.

#44217
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Dipshits.  Turn your fucking turret around and aim the cannon as high as it will go.  That's the signal for a surrendering tank/IFV.

Oh, now you want them to know war-type stuff.

#44218
9 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Nice boots.... Trench foot is soon be a problem! Add to that some frostbite and yay Russian army! 

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#44219
3 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

csb: back in the 80s/90s there was a Russian Army film they'd show US recruits in basic, they dwelt on these foot-rags as well as showed them going about training in a non-hazing way. They'd sing this cool little song while they marched, Sami verni, sami verni, sami verni chelovik soldat! (don't grade my Russian.)

I saw in in the 80s as a PFC and again later as an Officer Candidate. The second time around our group included a former Russian translator who'd been in Berlin as liaison, so he translated the song for us, then taught us to sing it in Russian. Totally mystified the Tac Officers, but they'd shown us the fuckin film so whatchagonnadoo. Like 1991, Ft. Bragg, dudes marching along yelling and singing in Russian.

Ras

Dva

Tri

Chetyre

/csb

#44221
5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

revolution !

 

Clown show.

Would be funny if there weren't Ukranian lives at stake.

#44222
16 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Clown show.

Would be funny if there weren't Ukranian lives at stake.

Well, Omsk is about 2,000 miles from Ukraine. Better they dick around in Omsk, than shoot somebody's grammaw in Ukraine.

#44225
2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

So how long before Kadyrov falls from a tenth story window?

Like anyone could even know which story it will be.  The building might not even have 10 floors.

Edited by kevwun

#44226
1 minute ago, kevwun said:

Like anyone could even know which story it will be.  The building might not even have 10 floors.

How could anyone know in advance how an accident will happen?

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#44227
6 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

What % of the population are pro-Russian in these regions? What do they do with these people when this is over? Will there just continually be fighting with separatists or is the goal to kill them all during this war?

Let's be real clear about the "separatists'" notion.

What happened in 2014 wasn't some popular uprising with a grassroots element that felt like the rightful president had to flee in a coup. 

The popular uprising occurred in Kyiv. It was massive, ongoing, and lengthy, through Ukraine's bitterest cold. Eventually, after massacring his people didn't make it stop, Yanukovych was faced with prosecuting the kind of national annihilism Assad did in Syria to retain control of the country. He chose to flee instead. 

Afterwards was a time of tumult. It wasn't clear who was in charge. No one had any popular mandate to rule. 

The military had been purposefully gutted by Yanukovych in favor of his security forces. Corruption was rife (always has been, and frankly, almost certainly exists now even if muted). 

In this turmoil Putin's first concern was Sevastopol, the historical Russian naval base, home of the Black Sea Fleet, and inarguably the single biggest military asset in all of Ukraine. He wanted to make sure he secured that in the face of a Western dominated Ukraine. So the green men (unmarked Russian soldiers) took over Crimea without a shot being fired, including several Ukrainian warships. The commanders on those vessels complained of no chain of command, no instructions on how to handle the current situation. The sailors on those ships were offered Russian citizenship, or were sent back to Ukraine in humiliation. 

The referendum to annex Crimea wasn't as much of a joke as the recent one involving the four regions of Ukraine, but it was close. Same armed troops at the ballot box. They intimidated the local Tartars to stay away from the ballot box. This is in addition to Crimea being primarily Russian, mostly because Stalin round up the native Tartars and sent them to Siberia while migrating huge numbers of Russians to the area. 

After that was secured in good order, Putin expanded into the Donbas, a region that has been a historical manufacturing base for Russia, including military vehicles in modern times. The green men systematically took over law enforcement, judicial buildings, and political centers of control practically overnight throughout the area. They were repelled in some places, but in town after town most civilians woke up with someone else in charge and a feeling that there wasn't much that could be done about it. New Russian appointed leaders announced their control of the regions. 

The political leadership in Kyiv was a complete clusterfuck trying to respond to any of this. Eventually they did send the hollowed shell of a military they did possess down to recapture the regions, including thousands of volunteers, most notably what became known as the Azov battalion. Many of these volunteers were the foundational source of what Putin has described as the "Nazification" of Ukraine.

It's important to note, and I've done it on this thread before, but I wouldn't expect anyone to remember, and I sure wouldn't expect anyone to go back and read about it, but when Russians call elements of Ukraine Nazis, they don't mean it in the way westerners think about it. That's why it's idiotic to bring up Zelensky as a Jew as part of the response. Russians don't primarily associate the Nazis with the Holocaust the way westerners do. Heck, Russians have their own ambivalent historic relationship with Jews. Russians associate Nazis with Operation Barbarossa, and the whole sale massacre of Russians, the vast destruction wrought, the rapes, the terror campaigns, both incoming and in retreat. 

Regarding Ukraine itself, Stephen Bandera is the central polarizing figure. For Ukrainians who associate with the west, he's a national hero, a wanna be liberator. For Russians he was a Nazi collaborator, who was responsible for atrocities against the Russian people. 

It was under Bandera's banner that many of the volunteers headed east with the Ukrainian army to recapture the Donbas region, many of them part of the so called Azov Battalion. And, frankly, they were wiping the floor with the rag tag groups Russia had pulled together to take over the Donbas regions. Until the Russian army crossed the border and virtually wiped them out. Russia wasn't willing to openly invade Ukraine at that point (they probably should have given what has happened to them in the last 8 months). They took out the Ukrainian forces, and after that the front line stabilized, and would remain that way for the most part for 8 years. 

But while there was always a more pro Russian sentiment in eastern Russia (Zelensky himself is a native Russian speaker, and favored a softer approach to Kremlin than his predecessor, Poroshenko), it was Russian machinations which created the breakaway Donbas region in the first place. Not some separatist movement. That part was fictional. 

#44232
2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

It kind of needs to be soon.  Because you can begin to see the outline of the warlord-ization of Russia.  Between Kadyrov and Prigozhin, you already have two sizable private armies in Russia that are probably as well-equipped and capable as the federal army.  For the moment, the Kadyrovites and Wagner remain loyal to Putin.  But that could change at any time (either because Putin is deposed or because Kadyrov/Prigozhin mutiny).  And if that happens, it's not at all clear to me how that would go.

It could very well be that you have something that looks like China from 1910 to 1949.  But with nuclear weapons.  And I don't think that's a particularly good thing.

Kadyrov will go down with the Putin ship. His clan pushed all its cards in on “siding with the tsar.” Putin and the Russian military are the source of his authority and position and he cannot change now. The North Caucasus do not forget or forgive, once the winds shift if Russia Kadyrov either gets to some hot emirate or his fate is worth than Gaddafi. 

#44240
2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

revolution !

3 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

So how long before Kadyrov falls from a tenth story window?

30 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Kadyrov will go down with the Putin ship. His clan pushed all its cards in on “siding with the tsar.” Putin and the Russian military are the source of his authority and position and he cannot change now. The North Caucasus do not forget or forgive, once the winds shift if Russia Kadyrov either gets to some hot emirate or his fate is worth than Gaddafi. 

Something is brewing.  I’ve seen this posted around, bitching about Russian elites not sending their sons off to fight.   No idea who he is, but some are claiming that it’s Dagestan, but maybe somebody who is being used by Kadyrov.

Everything seems to point to Kadyrov, and if so, he’s getting out over his skis.

Edited by atomheartbevo

#44242
1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

It's important to note, and I've done it on this thread before, but I wouldn't expect anyone to remember, and I sure wouldn't expect anyone to go back and read about it, but when Russians call elements of Ukraine Nazis, they don't mean it in the way westerners think about it. That's why it's idiotic to bring up Zelensky as a Jew as part of the response. Russians don't primarily associate the Nazis with the Holocaust the way westerners do.

I’ve heard/read a lot that says basically that if you believe in Ukraine as a nation, that you are a Ukrainian “nationalist” as it were, that it falls under the banner of Russia calling you a “Nazi” (nationalist) and has nothing to do with Germany.

#44248
44 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

So a somewhat off-topic question, . . . if the United States and the EU (and I presume some other allies, including Japan, Australia, and South Korea) can agree to a price cap on Russian oil, why can't we agree on a price cap on all oil.  Kind of an oil buyers' cartel to counter OPEC?

#44250
6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So a somewhat off-topic question, . . . if the United States and the EU (and I presume some other allies, including Japan, Australia, and South Korea) can agree to a price cap on Russian oil, why can't we agree on a price cap on all oil.  Kind of an oil buyers' cartel to counter OPEC?

Because China and India would sign an agreement to buy it for $2/bbl more than "The West"? I honestly don't know...just guessing. 

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