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#64651

Something else that I keep thinking about: Poland.

At some point I think their calculus changes and they decide it’s in their best interest to officially enter this war.

Their neighbor, who has stated their intentions to destroy Poland, is perpetuating genocide against their other neighbor. At what point do they decide enough is enough and enter the war?

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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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#64653
7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Something else that I keep thinking about: Poland.

At some point I think their calculus changes and they decide it’s in their best interest to officially enter this war.

Their neighbor, who has stated their intentions to destroy Poland, is perpetuating genocide against their other neighbor. At what point do they decide enough is enough and enter the war?

I think the only realistic possibility of Polish involvement would be in a humanitarian sense. The guise of it anyway.

Like, oh hey guys, 50k polish volunteers just showed up in Kyiv to uh pass out blankets and soup. Oh those aren't tanks, they're taco trucks.

Edited by MissingInAction

#64654
There has been information that Shoigu is set on arresting Prigozhin and several other top figures in Wagner PMC within the next several weeks.

If this is true, it might spark an (un)civil war.

#64655
Zaporizhzhia region , in some places we approached the second line of defense with "Dragon's Teeth". No details, sorry, but it can't be announced yet 🤐

 

#64656
35 minutes ago, The Dog said:
Контрнаступление Украины началось? Похоже теперь

The counteroffensive of Ukraine has begun? Looks like it is now

On the Zaporozhye Front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine switched from preparatory strikes and attacks by light forces to a full-fledged attempt to break through the front in the Orekhov region. All signs point to this. Namely:

- The use of great forces.
— Appearance of Leopard 2 tanks in battle.
“Attack in three directions at once and continuous pressure.
- The first results and positions recaptured from the Russian army.

There is no point in guessing whether the breakthrough will be successful, especially since we do not fully understand what results the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already achieved. Simply because the only source of information is the Russian side. But even from their messages, you can learn some information.

To begin with, they do not hesitate to report on the local successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the liberation of 1-3 small settlements or their outskirts. In addition, the rhetoric of the Z-channels is strongly reminiscent of the one that was at the very beginning of the Izyum operation. It takes 2-3 days for them to begin to recognize the obvious. I do not rule out that the same thing may happen on the Zaporozhye front.

However, the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be taken too optimistically now either. As I said, so far we see only an attempt to break through. This is a war between two sides. And it is not at all necessary that the Ukrainian army will win all the battles. Now we need to observe and analyze what is happening, keeping a sober head. It is important that the main direction for the first attempt was exactly Melitopol. About why, in my opinion, it is preferable, I wrote back in the spring: https://t.me/arrowsmap/65. In short, this is the closest road to the Crimea and to the “land corridor” of the Russian army.

I note that any offensive implies losses. You remember the classic formula of 3 to 1 and even 5 to 1 - the necessary advantage of the attacking side over the defending one. Including margin for losses. Therefore, there is no need to perceive the demonstrated photos and videos with burning Ukrainian equipment as some kind of critical factor. It is better to soberly evaluate what we see. In the meantime, there are a maximum of 4 Leopard 2 tanks (1 destroyed and 3 damaged) and about ten armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles. If this is all that the Russian side can show as "huge losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", then the offensive is super-successful. And most importantly, losses at the very first stage of a breakthrough are always the largest. But what will happen after this breakthrough and whose army will lose more - we'll see.

In the next 1-2 days I'm waiting for an update of the situation. Either the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to break through and the truth will no longer be hidden - there will be evidence of a successful attack. Or they will withdraw and inflict new blows somewhere in neighboring areas. In the worst case scenario, the APU has a couple of weeks for such attempts. And if they all turn out to be unsuccessful, then it will already be possible to talk about a certain failure of the offensive, and the troops will have to reorganize and change their plans. But something tells me we won't see it.

This map is from my post on April 21st. I highlighted on it the directions in which strikes are now taking place, and the thin arrows are what I assumed back then.

Subscribe to my channel, we will follow the events at the front together

The RU MOD released footage of the engagement outside of Mala Tokmachka, Zaporzhia Oblast, with artillery fire disabling/destroying one Ukrainian Leopard 2A4. https://t.co/hb1llDgtjC

 

#64657
6 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:
The RU MOD released footage of the engagement outside of Mala Tokmachka, Zaporzhia Oblast, with artillery fire disabling/destroying one Ukrainian Leopard 2A4. https://t.co/hb1llDgtjC

 

Those vehicles look awfully close together.  Hope they didn't jump the gun on letting the fields dry out.

#64658
9 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:
The RU MOD released footage of the engagement outside of Mala Tokmachka, Zaporzhia Oblast, with artillery fire disabling/destroying one Ukrainian Leopard 2A4. https://t.co/hb1llDgtjC

 

did someone say leopards and bradleys?

image.gif.f64ddd9ac72d1935847da037d2ea8f2d.gif

#64659
What if I told you, despite what many are saying, that Ukraine's counter-offensive has not started yet?And, what if I told you, when it starts, you will know?Patience, my friends. Judgement day is near.
Oh something has started, certainly. But, this is just foreplay.

 

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#64660
Those vehicles look awfully close together.  Hope they didn't jump the gun on letting the fields dry out.
Good point.  Another thing: the Ukrainians are attacking, not defending.  One of the greatest experts on world war two tank matters is Stephen Zaloga.   In his book Armored Thunderbolt -  about Sherman tanks in World War II, he presented very compelling evidence that the single biggest factor involved in tank losses in tank-on-Tank battles was NOT how thick the armor, how deadly the cannon, or other technical matters you would assume make the critical difference.    Instead, it turns out that being the invading aggressor always led to a large number of those invading tanks being destroyed when compared to tanks in a defensive position utilizing defensive cover.
Even the widely criticized, Sherman tanks (and tank destroyers with Sherman cannon and frames) were able to destroy several panzer battalions in the battle of Arracourt when the panzer’s were on the attack. The Germans lost a bunch of armor during the battle of the bulge as well when they were once again the invading aggressor.   
The US lost more Shermans when we advanced than when we defended. The problem being, we were always advancing.  The good news was the Sherman was extremely mechanically reliable, and even though they were minor improvements throughout the war, none of them were major design changes that required the assembly lines to stop.  Unlike the over engineered German tanks, the Shermans were reliable and easily fixed on the battlefield. My father drove his Sherman from France through Belgium, took the Remagen Bridge and advanced through Germany’s Rhineland until his division was stopped in Czechoslovakia. They were told the war was over, and per orders, he simply parked his tank and returned to Germany for occupation duty. 
 
tl;dr version
Ukraine gonna lose more tanks as they are on the offensive, facing well defended positions with mines and artillery already having sighted in the ranges.   It can’t be prevented in a war without air superiority. 
#64662
8 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:
What if I told you, despite what many are saying, that Ukraine's counter-offensive has not started yet?And, what if I told you, when it starts, you will know?Patience, my friends. Judgement day is near.
Oh something has started, certainly. But, this is just foreplay.

 

Giggity. 

#64663
1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Something else that I keep thinking about: Poland.

At some point I think their calculus changes and they decide it’s in their best interest to officially enter this war.

Their neighbor, who has stated their intentions to destroy Poland, is perpetuating genocide against their other neighbor. At what point do they decide enough is enough and enter the war?

When the US tells them they are free to use the weapons we sold them in direct conflict with Russia.  Like that very instant.  One presumes they have all their stuff at the border with the engines idling.

#64665
15 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:
What if I told you, despite what many are saying, that Ukraine's counter-offensive has not started yet?And, what if I told you, when it starts, you will know?Patience, my friends. Judgement day is near.
Oh something has started, certainly. But, this is just foreplay.

 

no-no-no-eb9b372797-500x214.jpg

#64666
17 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:
What if I told you, despite what many are saying, that Ukraine's counter-offensive has not started yet?And, what if I told you, when it starts, you will know?Patience, my friends. Judgement day is near.
Oh something has started, certainly. But, this is just foreplay.

 

 

8 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

Giggity. 

Yeah. I perused her Instagram. That lady can fucking get it. No one tell Brisket.

#64668
8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Yeah. I perused her Instagram. That lady can fucking get it. No one tell Brisket.

It's ok, he'll tell errbody.

#64669
13 minutes ago, Parliament said:

When the US tells them they are free to use the weapons we sold them in direct conflict with Russia.  Like that very instant.  One presumes they have all their stuff at the border with the engines idling.

I tend to think it would happen if there are indicators that this counteroffensive is stalling and/or the outcome of the war is in doubt/momentum somehow starts to swing back towards a stalemate.

#64670
38 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:
What if I told you, despite what many are saying, that Ukraine's counter-offensive has not started yet?And, what if I told you, when it starts, you will know?Patience, my friends. Judgement day is near.
Oh something has started, certainly. But, this is just foreplay.

 

Despite the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine’s security guarantees failed, leading to thousands of Ukrainian lives lost.It’s time for workable security guarantees for Ukraine!

i would like to participate in foreplay with her

#64672
26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I think now would be a great time to remind people that there are 12 brigades that have been trained and armed for this offensive, and right now we have only seen equipment from 1-2 of those brigades.

 

#64673
48 minutes ago, NoRagrets said:

How crazy is it that there’s a modern war going without meaningful air assets on either side?

We are getting into some creepy uncharted territory, where both sides have decent numbers of modern MANPADs and anti-air systems, something the US has not really faced.

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#64675
Russian imports of electronics are back to pre-war level - Jim O’Brien, sanctions coordinator at the U.S. State Department.This means Russia gets the chips, processors and integrated circuits it needs to make weapons.The US have identified five countries who do the most…

 

#64676
1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Oh those aren't tanks, they're taco trucks.

With food launcher capabilities.  That's how you feed the folks who are stuck in the flood.

#64679
According to Russian sources, air defense worked perfectly fine

 

#64680
9 minutes ago, MillerEP said:
Russian imports of electronics are back to pre-war level - Jim O’Brien, sanctions coordinator at the U.S. State Department.This means Russia gets the chips, processors and integrated circuits it needs to make weapons.The US have identified five countries who do the most…

 

I guess he couldn't Sharm El-Sheikh it off.  

#64682

That tweet re: sanctions avoidance is maddening.

Bring the fucking hammer on all 5 of those countries.

Also, we were assured by many here that Russia wouldn’t be able to produce these weapons on an ongoing basis. That turned out to be completely wrong.

Edited by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

#64683
1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That tweet re: sanctions avoidance is maddening.

Bring the fucking hammer on all 5 of those countries.

Also, we were was assured by many here that Russia wouldn’t be able to produce these weapons on an ongoing basis. That turned out to be completely wrong.

I think the question is if this is nation state supported or just happening because of morally bankrupt companies.  Now the nations have a responsibility to crack down on it obviously.

#64685
1 minute ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I think the question is if this is nation state supported or just happening because of morally bankrupt companies.  Now the nations have a responsibility to crack down on it obviously.

Cool. Hammer the shit out of them and let know they can come back into the fold once they’re in compliance.

#64686
7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That tweet re: sanctions avoidance is maddening.

Bring the fucking hammer on all 5 of those countries.

Also, we were assured by many here that Russia wouldn’t be able to produce these weapons on an ongoing basis. That turned out to be completely wrong.

Well, it's taken them quite a while to be able to find the shit.   Now we get to find it too.  And there's going to be a lot shit handed out over it.  

#64688
3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Well, it's taken them quite a while to be able to find the shit.   Now we get to find it too.  And there's going to be a lot shit handed out over it.  

It's also evident that Russia is not able to produce the weapons in the same volumes as before.  The noose tightened, a handful of folks slipped through it, but they're being identified and presumably dealt with.  I hope those dealings are swift and harsh.

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#64689

Sanctions can take time, and negotiating and using diplomatic channels with other countries can be complex, frustrating, and generally a fucking mess.

 

You know what is NOT a mess? Calling all of those chip companies and telling them in no uncertain terms that if they make ANY sales to ANY of those countries starting tomorrow, and the US finds out about it, they're fucking toast. We can do that today. 

#64690
1 hour ago, Foggy Notion said:
What if I told you, despite what many are saying, that Ukraine's counter-offensive has not started yet?And, what if I told you, when it starts, you will know?Patience, my friends. Judgement day is near.
Oh something has started, certainly. But, this is just foreplay.

 

Wouldn't foreplay be bad in this case because it would cause the field to become too sloppy?

#64691
8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Wouldn't foreplay be bad in this case because it would cause the field to become too sloppy?

Little too fucking soon there, buddy.

Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing up Kakhovka dam

Latest in Ukraine: Drinking Water Rushed to Those Stranded or Fleeing  Flooding After Rupture of Dam

Edited by SydneyCarton

#64692

No confirmation, first notice I have seen. But I can see this happening. Fuck Russia. 

Odesa, the corpses of Kherson citizens are washed up by waves to the beaches... According to a local resident, the beaches are closed for quarantine

 

#64693
Sladkov says that Ukraine is firing 155mm artillery rounds with Remote Anti-Armor Munitions (RAAM) behind Russian lines to mine resupply routes.https://t.co/msRMFMBnYX
Izvestia's Trushnin blames weak counterbattery capabilities for Russia's inability to advance further in Marinka and elsewhere. He notes that Ukrainian artillery, like M777, has longer range, and that they need longer-range artillery and CB radar.https://t.co/Tjou4zmQyT

 

#64696
1 hour ago, MillerEP said:
Russian imports of electronics are back to pre-war level - Jim O’Brien, sanctions coordinator at the U.S. State Department.This means Russia gets the chips, processors and integrated circuits it needs to make weapons.The US have identified five countries who do the most…

 

OH NO!.....I hope the shark is okay.

#64697
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

OH NO!.....I hope the shark is okay.

He'll have a hangover from the excess vodka but he'll sleep it off.

#64698
7 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Mental note: No more swimming in Egypt

Tiger shark, per reports. The 2010 attacks off Sharm El-Shiek were an Oceanic Whitetip abd a Mako.

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#64699
12 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Mental note: No more swimming in Egypt

I wonder if that Russian’s family are still in de Nile 

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