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#64751
7 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Sanctions can take time, and negotiating and using diplomatic channels with other countries can be complex, frustrating, and generally a fucking mess.

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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

Posted Images

#64752
Missiles flying towards Kyiv. Meanwhile, Shahed-drones enter Kharkiv region.

 

#64753
If Dmitry Polyanskiy or Dmitry Medvedev pronouce nonsense while I am away, please tell share this meme with them.

 

  • Popular Post
#64756

beautiful happy endings GIF

A Canadian air tanker whose call sign is "HOSER"

Get used to it, Russia.NATO tanker/transports over 🇸🇪 Sweden and 🇫🇮 Finland.🇨🇦 HOSER 41 is CC-150T 15005 #C2B37D🇳🇱 MMF18 is A330 MRTT T-058 #480C44🇳🇱 MMF19 is A330 MRTT T-059 #480C45

For reference, this is truly a hoser.

1024px-CC-150_Polaris_tanker_refueling_t

Edited by atomheartbevo

#64757

A little young for me, but very pretty:

💙💛 Glory to Ukraine and its soldiers 🇺🇦 Death to enemies🔥 Good morning Ukraine! 💙💛 Everyone have a good and peaceful day! https://t.co/y09ZTcWmPt

 

  • Popular Post
#64759

Heartfelt message from a soldier in Bakhmut:

My 31th birthday spend on Bekhmut hell. Do you think this is the best way for celebration? #Counteroffensive #Bakhmut #Ukraine

 

"Birthday,

In the war, if you come out of the meat grinder, it's already your birthday. And this happens many many times. If, of course, you are lucky.

Only for yesterday's storm, there were several moments when I should not have lived to see my birthday.

It was bloody.... I watched so much...every time it's like a new one. I'm not used to it.

The worst thing is that when you are exhausted, it is difficult to to resist stress. The surrounding horror breaks through the defenses of the psyche, penetrates and fills you.

When you are extremely exhausted, and can't [sic] standing on your feet...but there are many wounded fellows around, and they need to be saved, and then taken out of here.

And at this time, shells are exploding next to you...nearby flashes of fire are blinding. The air is permeated with iron fragments and bullets...and you realize that you yourself will now be wounded or die.... The realization that the tattered and unrecognizable body is your brother with whom you have gone through so much....screams, shelling, explosions, and chaos....you are lost orientation in space....

Every time I am more and more surprised by the soldiers of Ukraine. These are incomprehensibly cool people who voluntarily go to hell.

Thank you to everyone who put me on my feet, pulled me out of battle, who supported me during the war. And especially those with whom I have the honor to fight side by side together."

 

This is a Ukrainian sniper. He has a number of videos and interviews with western reporters on his twitter page, along with images of when he was wounded in the fighting and then returned. 

 

  • Popular Post
#64761

People upset regarding media reports the collapse of the Kakhovka dam is being blamed by both sides on one another.

Which IS absurd, but that's how it's always been. Until there's some kind of official word that can be cited, some authoritative source for what happened, this is how it goes. It's obvious to any thinking person that Russia blew up this dam by mining it then purposefully detonating it, but we have to go through this charade. But I don't blame thinking people who feel like giving both sides of the issue equal credence is absurd. It is. But it's also just how things are. The truth will come out eventually. Until then you have to do what is necessary to come out victorious. 

This.

 

#64762
NEW: #Ukraine has conducted #counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.Latest assessment w/ @criticalthreats: https://t.co/A1Y19HR1xc

 

#64763

Here's one of the better assessments I've seen of what's going on. Obviously short on specifics, and the guy admits he's parsing through a lot of Russian disinformation. But while he's pro Ukraine he's not rah rah. I've had mixed feelings about some of The Drive's reporting. I just don't know what to think of them so far, other than they're trying the best they can at making a living doing what they're passionate about. 

In any case, here's the article. Tons of twitter links so you can go further down the rabbit hole if you so desire:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-brings-claims-of-limited-breathroughs

Spoiler
 

As a new day dawns in Ukraine, there are indications Kyiv is making progress in its counteroffensive attack after a bloody first day that saw limited gains.

Ukraine has launched an attack largely focused in Zaphorizhzhia Oblast. As we predicted in December, it is designed to disrupt and eventually cut off the so-called land bridge to Crimea. On Thursday, the first full day of intensified action, Ukraine hit at locations in and around the largely destroyed city of Orikhiv, suffering what some U.S. officials said were “significant losses.”

 
 

That should come as no great surprise for an attack in an expected area with no air support against an enemy that has had many months to prepare. Meanwhile, the Russians too are almost certainly taking significant losses in both personnel and equipment, but that's not being highlighted by the Russian military bloggers who are providing the bulk of information regarding the front lines at the moment. Biases everywhere you look mixed with the fog of war mean that getting a clear picture of what is going on is nearly impossible, but some trends are emerging.

 

And while images are emerging on social media of destroyed Ukrainian equipment, including donated Leopard 2 tanks and other armor in both Zaporizhzhia as well as southern Donetsk Oblast where fighting is also taking place, some Russian Telegram channels are reporting limited breakthroughs.

 
 

“The enemy is pushing through our defense line on the Zaporizhzhia front,” Operation Z, a collective of Russian military commissars, journalists and volunteers, reported on its Telegram channel Thursday. “Armored groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are hitting one point.”

 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine “threw into battle up to 30 units of armored vehicles in a new assault near the town of Orikhiv, trying to break through our defenses in the Rabotino-Verbove area.”

The positions of Russia’s 291st regiment “have been under attack for more than a day,” says Operation Z. “According to the latest data, the enemy again managed to push through the defense line, ours retreated to reserve positions, the enemy is trying to gain a foothold.”

Many more Ukrainian troops await, Operation Z reported.

“In the near rear, the movement of columns of enemy equipment continues,” according to Operation Z. “The enemy has not yet thrown tank wedges into battle: a serious threat of a powerful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains.”

Much of the fighting has been centered in and around the town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Google Earth image)
Much of the fighting has been centered in and around the town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Google Earth image)

“I do not share the joyful reports about the ‘defeat of the enemy,’” Dmitry Rogozin, “who is at the front with a group of military advisers,” Operation Z reported. “Yes, we repulsed the first attack. Yes, well done. But the enemy has not yet introduced the main forces of the breakthrough, primarily large tank wedges, has not driven them into our forward positions. And they are only in the vicinity of Orikhiv in the most tank-dangerous direction - about 600 tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not counting the infantry fighting vehicles. Therefore, it is too early to rejoice, gentlemen. First, let's win, and only then we will ‘throw caps into the air,’” Rogozin said, according to Operation Z.

Though it has no air cover, Ukrainian forces are using drones and artillery to cover approaches to the battlezone, Russian propagandist Semyon Pegov said on his influential WarGonzo Telegram channel Thursday. 

“Despite the failure of the first attempt at a quick offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nothing has been completed on this sector of the front,” WarGonzo reported. “The boys are in for a tough night. We wish them good luck.”

“Ukrainian formations have been trying to break through the defense line of the Russian Armed Forces in the Orhikhiv sector,” the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel reported. “Thanks to the competent actions of the defenders and the advantage in the air, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 40 armored vehicles, including at least four Leopard 2A4 tanks.”

However, “despite the failure of the Ukrainian offensive, it is too early to relax: the enemy is just beginning to seriously attack in the Zaporizhzhia direction. In addition, a blow should be expected in other sectors of the front.”

“The only area where the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to advance is Lobkove,” the Two Majors Telegram channel reported. ”The presence of the enemy remains there, from where the assault groups of the 128th Guards Brigade are trying to attack the positions of the [Russian] Armed Forces near the village of Zherebyanka.”

All this, of course, is the Russian viewpoint, so take that as you will, but it is hardly glowing for Russian forces and seems to set up an ominous situation in the hours and days to come.

During a briefing at the Pentagon Thursday, the Pentagon’s top spokesman declined to categorize Ukraine’s actions or the overall status of the battlefield.

“What I'm not going to do today is provide an operational update on ongoing developments on the battlefield,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. “Clearly Russia for some time has been building its defenses in Ukraine and in anticipation of a Ukrainian counter-offensive and so that's about as far as I'll go right now.”

Beyond seeing some Russian replacement forces, Ryder said that “I'm not aware of any significant large number of additional Russian forces coming in but of course, that's something we'll continue to keep an eye on.”

 

As we noted earlier in the day, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said without proof that the Russians had defeated the counteroffensive, with huge losses in personnel and equipment imposed on Ukrainians. Ukraine, meanwhile, has been mostly quiet on the subject.

There is a very long way to go in this effort and it is far too early to make any assessments of its success or failure.

We will keep a close eye on developments as the counteroffensive continues.

 

#64766

For some comparison, it took the Allies over a month of heavy fighting after D-Day before they finally had a huge breakthrough.  And it was jump started by one of the largest bombing operations in history.

#64767
13 minutes ago, kevwun said:

For some comparison, it took the Allies over a month of heavy fighting after D-Day before they finally had a huge breakthrough.  And it was jump started by one of the largest bombing operations in history.

No offense, but I don't see where D-Day is all that relevant of a comparison, other than the date, and one side was on offense while the other was on defense.

The fact is Ukraine only has 12 brigades they've formed made up of new western armor (and by new, I mean 40 years old). Many of the people in those brigades are newly mobilized. They have no industrial capacity to replace any losses. They have to go hat in hand for every single vehicle. There aren't any more Leopard 2A4s or better forthcoming. It's all Leopard 1s from what I can see, and the 31 M1 Abrams are older models that come with their own supply chain issues. 

They have no real close combat support. Both the planes and helicopters fly nape of the earth tactics and practically fling their air to ground missiles blind. The storm shadows are different because they can be fired at a safer range, but those aren't close combat support in any case. 

They certainly have no paratrooper capability, nor robust amphibious assault assets much beyond inflatable rafts. 

Unless the Russians show a discernible weakness in their lines at some point - and I'm personally convinced they will - it's going to be tough sledding. The assault teams will take a few meters. Support teams will then secure the area. Artillery will reposition. Rinse and repeat. Through minefields, entrenched positions, artillery fire, and against a more robust close combat air support. Oh, and across flat land with little topographical changes and limited cover of any sort. Which is both a strength and a weakness, but certainly leaves assault teams naked on approach.

From what I've read Ukraine is concentrating on taking strategic heights from which they can mount more attacks. In the Bakhmut region they're using veteran forces still utilizing their older equipment, and having success to the tune of 1.5 to 2 kilometers of advancement. 

Now, we also have huge fog of war issues, so who knows how up to date anything we're getting about the attack really is. But I do feel like it's safe to say we're not seeing any kind of Kharkiv style breakthroughs so far. Nor should we have expected any.

I feel extremely confident we haven't seen a wholesale "all in" type of attack, but we may not, either. This may be what the offensive looks like. I don't believe that, but I do understand a certain reluctance by Ukrainian command in committing assets that are very difficult to replace, in terms of both man and machine.

And remember, the Kherson offensive, while successful, apparently took a huge toll on both equipment and men. It could be we'll see a repeat of that offensive. I hope not. I hope they're able to achieve a breakthrough somewhere along the southern front that leads to a jail break. But anything which demonstrates this doesn't have to settle into an attritional war is a huge success in my opinion. So we'll see how it goes.  

#64768

Not D-Day itself, but the push inland.  The Allies bogged down after the landings and the German dug in in ideal defensive country.  It took some serious fighting to unseat them.  My point was that it could be a slog for quite awhile until they punch a hole somewhere.

#64769
The US will announce a new package of long term military support to Ukraine worth $2+ billion. The package will help Ukraine purchase Hawk missile launchers and PAC-3 and GEM=T Patriot air defense missiles and will include various types of ammunition.https://t.co/y4Bg1UW9M3
Repost: The situation on the western axis in the Zaporizhzia region. I slightly adjusted the directions of attack and the situation near Robotyne as the town is not (yet) contested. Skirmishes are mainly reported in the outlined areas. No visually confirmed changes were made.

 

#64771
Footage appeared from the ATB supermarket in Uman of which Russia claims ammunition was stored inside after a recent missile strike.Looks like Russia demilitarized a lot of vegetables.

 

#64772

Interesting opsec

M142 HIMARS fires while cyclist is passing by. Another day in Ukraine.#Ukraine— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar)

 

  • Popular Post
#64773
People upset regarding media reports the collapse of the Kakhovka dam is being blamed by both sides on one another.
Which IS absurd, but that's how it's always been. Until there's some kind of official word that can be cited, some authoritative source for what happened, this is how it goes. It's obvious to any thinking person that Russia blew up this dam by mining it then purposefully detonating it, but we have to go through this charade. But I don't blame thinking people who feel like giving both sides of the issue equal credence is absurd. It is. But it's also just how things are. The truth will come out eventually. Until then you have to do what is necessary to come out victorious. 
 

I am for healthy set of skepticism but I also caution against both-sidesing the issue. That the Ukraine military is conducting rescue missions in response, seems in character. It also seems in character that harming Ukrainians civilians and destroying towns is in Russia’s character.

It also benefits Russia by diverting troops to rescue efforts.

It harms Ukraine.

So the answer is clear to me who did it. Giving it more thought than this is buying into the doubt which is what Russia wants. This old tactic of muddying waters is easy to defeat and to understand.
  • Popular Post
#64774
Russia: The entire banking system is at a standstill nationwide because the ISP used for banking communication with the Russian Central Bank is down. Infotel, the ISP, is suspected to have been hacked by a pro-Ukraine group. Sberbank's online services also down.
Cyber.Anarchy.Squad appears to have taken credit. The group posted Infotel's full internal client list - 100 out of 400 are banks, the rest are credit institutions, car dealers, and of course the Russian Central Bank. The group says the entire infrastructure has been destroyed.

 

  • Popular Post
#64776
33 minutes ago, Nivek said:

So the answer is clear to me who did it. Giving it more thought than this is buying into the doubt which is what Russia wants. This old tactic of muddying waters is easy to defeat and to understand.

Just Asking Questions is a favorite tactic of those seeking to muddy the waters and give cover to evil people. The trouble is convincing those who don't think critically about the questions being asked, that they're being useful idiots

#64777
From limited drone footage shown in open source, it appears Ukrainian combined arms teams - with attached Leo II tanks - are performing well, while experiencing the things any newly-formed force does. They’re getting their “offensive sea legs” & will keep learning & growing

 

#64778
The video shows additional damaged or destroyed vehicles, including wheeled vehicles. Many of them were not catastrophic kills, which means the crew/dismounts likely survived. 2/

 

#64779
25 minutes ago, Nivek said:


I am for healthy set of skepticism but I also caution against both-sidesing the issue. That the Ukraine military is conducting rescue missions in response, seems in character. It also seems in character that harming Ukrainians civilians and destroying towns is in Russia’s character.

It also benefits Russia by diverting troops to rescue efforts.

It harms Ukraine.

So the answer is clear to me who did it. Giving it more thought than this is buying into the doubt which is what Russia wants. This old tactic of muddying waters is easy to defeat and to understand.

That's not how an independent media operates, and you can't expect them to do differently. Now saying that, anyone that isn't a tool of the Russian propaganda machine either directly or indirectly that has a couple of synapses firing in their heads should be able to come to the conclusion Russia did it. I did that night. You could look at the devastation and know that came from a demolition from the structure itself. 

Since then there's been all kinds of confirmation. There's a seismic tracker that recorded an explosion in the area at 2am. There are eyewitnesses who saw no evidence of shelling or missile fire. There were Russian forces confiscating any type of flotation device on the left bank in the occupied areas in the weeks leading up to the demolition. There were Russian military stationed outside occupied villages who fired on the population when they tried to evacuate. There was Russian shelling of evacuation centers. There were numerous other smaller dams detonated across occupied areas. There's the fact that Russians are historical cock suckers who place no value on human life, either their own, and certainly not on anyone else's. 

But that doesn't change there's going to have to be a smoking gun for mainstream media sources to say Russia did it.

I went through a lot of this back in 2014. I knew it was Russian special forces that orchestrated the beginnings of the separatist movement. You could see them on video being recorded live by individuals peaking through their window with cell phones. I knew that the Russian army crossed the border, encircling and annihilating Ukrainian forces who were wiping the floor with the separatists. There were eyewitness reports from people in the Ukrainian paramilitary groups who saw it. But the media had to go along with the charade it was separatists in the Donbas region who spontaneously organized themselves as a protest against a Russian friendly president being kicked out with a Nazi friendly far right group taking power through a coup. All of it was absurd.

So sure, I hope no one tries to play that game on here. I haven't seen any sign of it. But to expect news organizations who ostensibly should be neutral parties rather than rooting sections flatly state it was Russia who did it without being able to cite a source beggars belief. 

#64780

Estimates of the Russian defensive positions in the south. Should give a good perspective on the number of defensive lines to cross just to get to Tokmak. We will see how committed the Ruskies are if the counter offensive starts making breakthroughs and gains some momentum.

While Ukraine's offensive in Zaporizhia is starting to ramp up, Russia has spent the last 2 months fortifying defensive lines across the entire oblast.Ive made an interactive map that shows the most recent satellite imagery and these lines.https://t.co/ElPKHH1kNmDownload below

 

#64781
26 minutes ago, KYHorn said:
The video shows additional damaged or destroyed vehicles, including wheeled vehicles. Many of them were not catastrophic kills, which means the crew/dismounts likely survived. 2/

 

This is a higher quality video. Looks like it hit a mine and the damage to the tracks is only minor.

 

#64782
15 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Estimates of the Russian defensive positions in the south. Should give a good perspective on the number of defensive lines to cross just to get to Tokmak. We will see how committed the Ruskies are if the counter offensive starts making breakthroughs and gains some momentum.

While Ukraine's offensive in Zaporizhia is starting to ramp up, Russia has spent the last 2 months fortifying defensive lines across the entire oblast.Ive made an interactive map that shows the most recent satellite imagery and these lines.https://t.co/ElPKHH1kNmDownload below

 

Allegedly there are 6 defensive lines. It’s categorized as the most heavily fortified area in the southern region. So much so there are a ton of cheerleader analysts for Ukraine who think an offensive in that direction is just flat out dumb. 

I don’t agree. I don’t see how someone can know unless they’ve walked those fortifications, they know the quality and number of the personnel deployed there, and what the artillery, ammo, air support, and heavy armor availability is. 

And you discover that by making probing attacks to see how the enemy responds. 

I sure would be excited by a pending encirclement of Tokmak, I know that. But we’ll see. Don’t want to get my hopes up just yet. I want to mentally let Ukraine do their thang, whatever that may be. 

But refresh gets a bit worn out at times. Not going to lie. 

#64783
Video from the Arabat Spit. ( Crimea ) According to Russian telegrams, a large attack was carried out with Storm Shadow missiles. A large number of Russian soldiers were said to be staying in regional tourist resorts.#Russia #RussiaIsLosing #Ukraine #Crimea #Ukrainian

 

#64784
3 minutes ago, KYHorn said:
Video from the Arabat Spit. ( Crimea ) According to Russian telegrams, a large attack was carried out with Storm Shadow missiles. A large number of Russian soldiers were said to be staying in regional tourist resorts.#Russia #RussiaIsLosing #Ukraine #Crimea #Ukrainian

 

What the hell is going on with the explosion in the water?  Missile missed its target?

#64785

Disgusting. 

The moment when Kherson was shelled by Ruzzian Nazis during the evacuation of civilians. (No gore- it hits water)

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667169809082007553?t=T44lyWxDuMiX3DhW5q9vFg&s=19 

“We are slowly dying without food and water”. Hundreds of people on the Dnipro’s occupied eastern bank are asking for help on Telegram after the flooding. Ukraine’s military is urging volunteers to stop going there because of the dangers.https://t.co/bOYBUIxHJv

 

Edited by KYHorn

#64786
7 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

 

This.

 

If that’s all you do then you will never realize that the two journalists are in different locations and you’re in a third

#64787
4 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

What the hell is going on with the explosion in the water?  Missile missed its target?

Pure speculation but the water spout sure looked dark for just water.  

#64788
2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

No offense, but I don't see where D-Day is all that relevant of a comparison, other than the date, and one side was on offense while the other was on defense.

The fact is Ukraine only has 12 brigades they've formed made up of new western armor (and by new, I mean 40 years old). Many of the people in those brigades are newly mobilized. They have no industrial capacity to replace any losses. They have to go hat in hand for every single vehicle. There aren't any more Leopard 2A4s or better forthcoming. It's all Leopard 1s from what I can see, and the 31 M1 Abrams are older models that come with their own supply chain issues. 

They have no real close combat support. Both the planes and helicopters fly nape of the earth tactics and practically fling their air to ground missiles blind. The storm shadows are different because they can be fired at a safer range, but those aren't close combat support in any case. 

They certainly have no paratrooper capability, nor robust amphibious assault assets much beyond inflatable rafts. 

Unless the Russians show a discernible weakness in their lines at some point - and I'm personally convinced they will - it's going to be tough sledding. The assault teams will take a few meters. Support teams will then secure the area. Artillery will reposition. Rinse and repeat. Through minefields, entrenched positions, artillery fire, and against a more robust close combat air support. Oh, and across flat land with little topographical changes and limited cover of any sort. Which is both a strength and a weakness, but certainly leaves assault teams naked on approach.

From what I've read Ukraine is concentrating on taking strategic heights from which they can mount more attacks. In the Bakhmut region they're using veteran forces still utilizing their older equipment, and having success to the tune of 1.5 to 2 kilometers of advancement. 

Now, we also have huge fog of war issues, so who knows how up to date anything we're getting about the attack really is. But I do feel like it's safe to say we're not seeing any kind of Kharkiv style breakthroughs so far. Nor should we have expected any.

I feel extremely confident we haven't seen a wholesale "all in" type of attack, but we may not, either. This may be what the offensive looks like. I don't believe that, but I do understand a certain reluctance by Ukrainian command in committing assets that are very difficult to replace, in terms of both man and machine.

And remember, the Kherson offensive, while successful, apparently took a huge toll on both equipment and men. It could be we'll see a repeat of that offensive. I hope not. I hope they're able to achieve a breakthrough somewhere along the southern front that leads to a jail break. But anything which demonstrates this doesn't have to settle into an attritional war is a huge success in my opinion. So we'll see how it goes.  

Agree. I think the Croatian Operation Storm in 1995 is more of a similar operation. Took time to prepare and to get going. Once the break throughs happened the Serbs were finally ready to go to Dayton and talk peace. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Storm

 

#64789
4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Disgusting. 

The moment when Kherson was shelled by Ruzzian Nazis during the evacuation of civilians. (No gore- it hits water)

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667169809082007553?t=T44lyWxDuMiX3DhW5q9vFg&s=19 

“We are slowly dying without food and water”. Hundreds of people on the Dnipro’s occupied eastern bank are asking for help on Telegram after the flooding. Ukraine’s military is urging volunteers to stop going there because of the dangers.https://t.co/bOYBUIxHJv

 

Zelensky has been railing against the Red Cross and UN, but they’re in the same predicament. If Russians insist on artillery attacks against civilian staging areas you can’t expect aid agencies to go in there. 

If this was anyone but Russia (or China) NATO/US would likely be sending troops to temporarily secure the area so aid organizations can operate. 

They’re just a bunch of fuckheads. Always have been. Always will be. 

#64790
2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

No offense, but I don't see where D-Day is all that relevant of a comparison, other than the date, and one side was on offense while the other was on defense.

The fact is Ukraine only has 12 brigades they've formed made up of new western armor (and by new, I mean 40 years old). Many of the people in those brigades are newly mobilized. They have no industrial capacity to replace any losses. They have to go hat in hand for every single vehicle. There aren't any more Leopard 2A4s or better forthcoming. It's all Leopard 1s from what I can see, and the 31 M1 Abrams are older models that come with their own supply chain issues. 

They have no real close combat support. Both the planes and helicopters fly nape of the earth tactics and practically fling their air to ground missiles blind. The storm shadows are different because they can be fired at a safer range, but those aren't close combat support in any case. 

They certainly have no paratrooper capability, nor robust amphibious assault assets much beyond inflatable rafts. 

Unless the Russians show a discernible weakness in their lines at some point - and I'm personally convinced they will - it's going to be tough sledding. The assault teams will take a few meters. Support teams will then secure the area. Artillery will reposition. Rinse and repeat. Through minefields, entrenched positions, artillery fire, and against a more robust close combat air support. Oh, and across flat land with little topographical changes and limited cover of any sort. Which is both a strength and a weakness, but certainly leaves assault teams naked on approach.

From what I've read Ukraine is concentrating on taking strategic heights from which they can mount more attacks. In the Bakhmut region they're using veteran forces still utilizing their older equipment, and having success to the tune of 1.5 to 2 kilometers of advancement. 

Now, we also have huge fog of war issues, so who knows how up to date anything we're getting about the attack really is. But I do feel like it's safe to say we're not seeing any kind of Kharkiv style breakthroughs so far. Nor should we have expected any.

I feel extremely confident we haven't seen a wholesale "all in" type of attack, but we may not, either. This may be what the offensive looks like. I don't believe that, but I do understand a certain reluctance by Ukrainian command in committing assets that are very difficult to replace, in terms of both man and machine.

And remember, the Kherson offensive, while successful, apparently took a huge toll on both equipment and men. It could be we'll see a repeat of that offensive. I hope not. I hope they're able to achieve a breakthrough somewhere along the southern front that leads to a jail break. But anything which demonstrates this doesn't have to settle into an attritional war is a huge success in my opinion. So we'll see how it goes.  

At this stage of the war, I think it's more analogous to the Hundred Days Offensive in 1918.  You've got the side on the offensive that is newly bolstered with American equipment, but has a lot of inexperienced troops.  And they're against a side that is well dug-in, but is lacking critical materiel and has pretty lousy morale.

But any analogy to a conflict from the last century is going to be very imprecise.  So it's probably best just to stay away from them.

#64791

The 37th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine filmed the mass escape of the Ruzzian invaders from the battlefield.

 https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667138580156674052?t=LVerW-Zrn-G7Eh5yTrOUmg&s=19

The StratCom of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in one of the directions the Ruzzian invaders are fleeing, leaving their positions.
The first video is Zaporizhzhia.
This video is presumably also Zaporizhzhia

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667164482349531136?t=_6EMmIZNqI5hFipOknCKCQ&s=19 

#64792

Maria has been saying that the "big" attack has yet to arrive and these are just probing attacks:

Is it me or is it getting a little hot for the russian terrorists all along the front lines?Oh, and out of 10, the AFU’s intensity is at about a 3 currently. Maybe a 3.5.Judgement day is near.

 

#64793
3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Maria has been saying that the "big" attack has yet to arrive and these are just probing attacks:

Is it me or is it getting a little hot for the russian terrorists all along the front lines?Oh, and out of 10, the AFU’s intensity is at about a 3 currently. Maybe a 3.5.Judgement day is near.

 

Whisper those sweet nothings in my ear, baby.

#64795
32 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Zelensky has been railing against the Red Cross and UN, but they’re in the same predicament. If Russians insist on artillery attacks against civilian staging areas you can’t expect aid agencies to go in there. 

If this was anyone but Russia (or China) NATO/US would likely be sending troops to temporarily secure the area so aid organizations can operate. 

They’re just a bunch of fuckheads. Always have been. Always will be. 

This is what I keep thinking about. At some point isn’t there an obligation to stop the wholesale slaughter of innocent people?

Is our stance that anything short of a nuclear attack won’t result in those capable of stopping these atrocities from taking action?

#64797
8 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

This is what I keep thinking about. At some point isn’t there an obligation to stop the wholesale slaughter of innocent people?

Is our stance that anything short of a nuclear attack won’t result in those capable of stopping these atrocities from taking action?

Well it took over 4 years to get serious in Bosnia. And the Serbs did not have nukes. 

#64798
Overlaying #Russian fortification data from @bradyafr of @AEI with ISW control-of-terrain data of the war in #Ukraine, @WSJ depicts recent #Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions in occupied #Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine.Full story: https://t.co/J8BqEIG4mY

article is paywalled but the map is informative. Didn't know Tokmak is a logistics hub. 

also this doesn't include some of the localized breakthroughs the probing attacks have achieved.

#64799
This is a higher quality video. Looks like it hit a mine and the damage to the tracks is only minor.

 

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