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#71001
Lurker here because I’m out my depth but I’m high so ive got courage to ask, can Ukraine handle that on a humanitarian scale?

They don’t have to. The Russians in Crimea are active participants in an invasion. All of them. Retreat/flee, or die. No humanitarian aid needed for invaders. Just more bullets.
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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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#71002
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


They don’t have to. The Russians in Crimea are active participants in an invasion. All of them. Retreat/flee, or die. No humanitarian aid needed for invaders. Just more bullets.

Probably more of a siege but they’ll be happy to allow some narrow corridor for a ferry to move invaders out of crimea, under close watch.  If those people get conscripted upon landing in russia and sent to say donbas, then they will be shot. 

#71003
Probably more of a siege but they’ll be happy to allow some narrow corridor for a ferry to move invaders out of crimea, under close watch.  If those people get conscripted upon landing in russia and sent to say donbas, then they will be shot. 

Exactly….invaders: GTFO or die. And you give them a way to GTFO, because their ferry tickets are cheaper than your bullets.
  • Popular Post
#71004
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


Exactly….invaders: GTFO or die. And you give them a way to GTFO, because their ferry tickets are cheaper than your bullets.

There’s a ferryman either way, which one is the choice. 

#71006
3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

There’s a ferryman either way, which one is the choice. 

charon_by_irenhorrors_ddsdjrx-pre.jpg?to

How do you say "Charon" in Ukrainian?

#71008
34 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

There’s a ferryman either way, which one is the choice. 

 

#71009
Russian lieutenant Ivan Korolev fled from Russia to Lithuania, where he seeks political asylum, - Russian Air Force Service In his video message, he states that he does not want to take part "in the bloody war that the state unleashed."He crossed the border with Lithuania…

 

#71011
The Ukrainian MoD released two spectacular videos, showing surviving Russian troops fleeing from Urozhaine.It is absolute carnage because those Russians have no armored vehicles, no vehicles at all and flee in broad daylight on an open road and fields. The 2nd video is even…— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar)

 

The Ukrainian MoD released two spectacular videos, showing surviving Russian troops fleeing from Urozhaine.

It is absolute carnage because those Russians have no armored vehicles, no vehicles at all and flee in broad daylight on an open road and fields. The 2nd video is even worse for them because it shows the usage of cluster ammunition, blasting those troops into absolute bits.

This is just another video proving the low quality of Russian command structures. To give so panicking withdrawal orders and allowing the own troops being literally destroyed with no cover from the dark or some vehicles is a masterclass in failure in itself.

It is unlikely that there are any Russian troops alive in Urozhaine.

The decimation of the last surviving Russian troops happened at the following coordinates:47°43'46.56"N, 36°49'58.45"EIt was the only remaining and open road for them to flee from Urozhaine, but for many it was ultimately the final road to their own demise.#Ukraine… https://t.co/oqoYGu73t3— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar)

Location: just south of Urozhaine. See map.

 

Edited by KYHorn

#71012
The Russian commander of the #1822 battalion from Samara city, Major Tomov, who disappeared 5 days ago, resurfaced alive on the Ukrainian side. In this video he helps the #Ukrainian officers by disclosing and putting on the map the Russian positions and fortifications along the…

 The Russian commander of the #1822 battalion from Samara city, Major Tomov, who disappeared 5 days ago, resurfaced alive on the Ukrainian side. In this video he helps the #Ukrainian officers by disclosing and putting on the map the Russian positions and fortifications along the eastern bank of the Dnipro river. [Video by the Ukrainian military.]

For context: On August 9, "Z-war correspondents" claimed that the Ukrainian military had raided the left bank of the Dnipro River, probably advancing 800 meters deep. The Russians concealed this operation, denied it, and then issued that they had sunk all the boats. As a result, Major Tomov and at least 17 other men from his group disappeared near the village of Kozachi Laheri, as the Rashists wrote. Russian propaganda also tried to cover up the disappearance of the reconnaissance group, but something went wrong.

Edited by KYHorn

#71014
This is ground control to Major Tomov:You've really made the grade!And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear.
This is Major Tomov to ground control:I'm now a Kyiv moleAnd I'm speaking in a most peculiar way,And the maps look very different today.For here am I sitting with a ball penFar from russki world.SMO is screwed and there's nothing left to do.🎵https://t.co/57XTqVqVbP

 

#71016
1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Probably more of a siege but they’ll be happy to allow some narrow corridor for a ferry to move invaders out of crimea, under close watch.  If those people get conscripted upon landing in russia and sent to say donbas, then they will be shot. 

Fuck the ferry, drive them into the sea.

#71018
2 hours ago, MisterP said:

um, can someone explain to me what the hell is going on in this video?

When a Russian and his Gimp go on vacation, they change out of their work clothes

#71019
Classic scheme: first they surrender Urozhaine, then they start blaming everyone for their faults. In reality, elite Russian troops were unable to withstand the onslaught and were pushed out. But we are not stopping here.

F3ZoOGKW4AAKGP9?format=png&name=large

#71020

If I had the misfortune of being Russian and sent to the Ukraine front, I would pack nothing but blue duct tape and several white T-shirts ... and then just pray I don't get droned to Bolivia.

#71021
that moment you send 40 year old rocket launchers to the front that have flat tires and were painted so quickly they painted the windows to get them out the door.. some were towed on the train.
Germany is going to deliver the highly advanced "Luna NG" drone system. According to Bild the drones will be purchased by Germany from Rheinmetall (@RheinmetallAG) and transferred to Ukraine by the end of this year.Source (German) of the news: https://t.co/gu76kfspemPictures…— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar)

 

#71022
“Assault groups enter enemy positions and successfully clear fortifications. In one of the dugouts there is a minus occupant.”Work in the Bakhmut direction, fighters of the 1st company of the 2nd assault battalion.
Occupiers of Buryat origin came to a Donetsk venue for a grub and were attacked by a local racist woman who accused them of only fighting for money. She says she never wants to see people like them in their city. United like never before.

 

#71023
2 hours ago, KYHorn said:
This is ground control to Major Tomov:You've really made the grade!And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear.
This is Major Tomov to ground control:I'm now a Kyiv moleAnd I'm speaking in a most peculiar way,And the maps look very different today.For here am I sitting with a ball penFar from russki world.SMO is screwed and there's nothing left to do.🎵https://t.co/57XTqVqVbP

 

Brothers morale low. Russian telegrams are not pleased with the interview of Major Tomov. https://t.co/FxDEmtVcKE

 

#71024

The russian superpowerPay this bread for 143.75 rubles now or take a credit and pay monthly 11.99 rubles during 12 months 🤡



^i wonder what the apr on bread loans is nowadays [emoji1787]

#71025

I was reading Band of Brothers (again) and ran across this. I didn't even know @Brisketexan was in Easy company:

PFC David Webster in a letter home:

"I cannot understand why you hope for a quick end of the war. Unless we take the horror of the battle to Germany itself, unless we fight in their villages, blowing up their houses, smashing open their wine cellars, killing some of their livestock for food, unless we litter the streets with horribly rotten German corpses as was done in France, the Germans will prepare for war, unmindful of its horrors. Defeat must be brought into Germany itself before this mess can come to a proper end; a quick victory now, a sudden collapse, will leave the countryside relatively intact and the people thirsty for revenge. I want the war to end as quickly as anybody wishes, but I don't want the nucleus of another war left whole"

(last paragraph on page 117 of my version)

#71026

𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐨𝐳𝐡𝐢𝐧, 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 🫨“𝑌𝑜𝑢 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔.”Evgeny Prigozhin’s entry into the presidential election race is a maneuver that warrants scrutiny. This figure, whose name has become synonymous…


^Priggy supposedly running for President against Putin

#71027
5 hours ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Fuck the ferry, drive them into the sea.

The Nazis made a mistake (thankfully) by not letting artillery and tanks loose in Dunkirk.

Hopefully the AFU doesn't make the same mistake and shell the hell out of everyone on the beach.

  • Popular Post
#71028
6 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:
Russian lieutenant Ivan Korolev fled from Russia to Lithuania, where he seeks political asylum, - Russian Air Force Service In his video message, he states that he does not want to take part "in the bloody war that the state unleashed."He crossed the border with Lithuania…

 

That neck tattoo says "nyet ragretski"

#71029

Fuck, Mig-23s made it all the way to a Michigan air show.

NOW - MiG-23 aircraft crashes during an air show in Michigan.pic.twitter.com/UVPGNh0viZ

 

#71030
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fuck, Mig-23s made it all the way to a Michigan air show.

NOW - MiG-23 aircraft crashes during an air show in Michigan.pic.twitter.com/UVPGNh0viZ

 

 

Highway to the danger zone, indeed.

#71031
12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fuck, Mig-23s made it all the way to a Michigan air show.

NOW - MiG-23 aircraft crashes during an air show in Michigan.pic.twitter.com/UVPGNh0viZ

 

Does Maverick get credit for this kill too? That would make 6.

#71033
2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐨𝐳𝐡𝐢𝐧, 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 🫨“𝑌𝑜𝑢 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔.”Evgeny Prigozhin’s entry into the presidential election race is a maneuver that warrants scrutiny. This figure, whose name has become synonymous…


^Priggy supposedly running for President against Putin

This is probably stupid, but I've been thinking about that whole episode, and I think that it isn't really over yet.  Pringles was convinced to stop and pull back, much of his force was nationalized into the Russian Army, but he was not imprisoned, he still has a force and is building it back up, and seems to be still involved.  I think that Pringles pulled back before he was overextended and while he could still preserve some of his force and prestige.  On the other hand, Putler was badly weakened, but has still held onto the intelligence apparatus.  Since then they have been circling each other, looking for opportunities to get in a body blow.  Neither has won, yet.  We just have to wait for one to make a mistake and let the other put a knife in him.

#71034
7 hours ago, KYHorn said:
The Ukrainian MoD released two spectacular videos, showing surviving Russian troops fleeing from Urozhaine.It is absolute carnage because those Russians have no armored vehicles, no vehicles at all and flee in broad daylight on an open road and fields. The 2nd video is even…— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar)

 

OK, in the first video I see the troops in a line on the road and then going around the bend, while there is in impact, it seems perpendicular to the movement of the troops.   It looks to me like a missed opportunity to lead them and give them the business to the full extent they deserve.  They got kills, they chased them away, but it looks like way too many survived.  

What is the screen we are looking at from?  What is the yellow box target that appears?   

Am I wrong?

#71035
1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

This is probably stupid, but I've been thinking about that whole episode, and I think that it isn't really over yet.  Pringles was convinced to stop and pull back, much of his force was nationalized into the Russian Army, but he was not imprisoned, he still has a force and is building it back up, and seems to be still involved.  I think that Pringles pulled back before he was overextended and while he could still preserve some of his force and prestige.  On the other hand, Putler was badly weakened, but has still held onto the intelligence apparatus.  Since then they have been circling each other, looking for opportunities to get in a body blow.  Neither has won, yet.  We just have to wait for one to make a mistake and let the other put a knife in him.

I still wonder - in theory, if the Russians are as stretched thin as we think they are, and if Putin actually knows it, then he literally can't afford to pull thousands of Russian soldiers off the line to go deal with Wagner, because it would open up a hole for the Ukrainians.  And he can't rely on FSB or the Chechens to deal with Wagner, because even if he has the numbers, sending a bunch of dudes used to threatening civilians or making TikTok videos up against Wagner would not end well for them, and Wagner may end up even stronger.

We know that Putin doesn't trust a lot of people (why would he, he's ex-KGB) and keeps going back to his long-time inner-circle (who are fucking this war up). Based on his public comments, he knows that drones are hitting in or near Moscow, he knows that the Ukrainians are hitting the bridges around Crimea as well as Russian shipping/ships, and so on some level he's got some awareness - his TV people are not out there claiming they still own Kharkiv or Kherson or any other major city that they hit after Feb. 2022.

I think on some level Putin has got to be paralyzed, and not an analysis paralysis kind of thing - I don't think he knows what to do, and I don't think he knows of anybody he can trust enough to let them take the military and do something different from what's being done. Prigozhin may very well have been it, and if Priggy did in fact mutiny, now he's terrified that A) Moscow was wide open for Wagner and B) he doesn't know who to trust in general since his generals didn't come running to Moscow to head Wagner off.  Putin can't take a chance on somebody outside of his circle doing something different with the military because he has to know that he has their complete, 100% obedience, which he gets with Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Only leverage that Putin has is the families of his enemies, but if he uses that leverage, then his enemies will have nothing holding them back.

#71036

So, they weren't willing to tangle with ships from Israel, Turkey/Georgia, or Greece, even though they threatened those ships. 

But they would fire on a Palau-flagged ship, forcing it to allow them to inspect it.

But the interesting thing is that they allowed it to continue to Ukraine, even thought they've claimed the grain deal is off. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-warship-warning-shot-black-sea-cargo-grain-deal-rcna99637

Quote

A Russian warship fired warning shots with automatic weapons on Sunday on a Palau-flagged dry cargo ship in the southwestern Black Sea as it made its way towards Ukraine, the Russian defense ministry said.

Quote

Russia said in a statement that its Vasily Bykov patrol ship had fired automatic weapons on the Sukru Okan vessel after the latter’s captain failed to respond to a request to halt for an inspection.

The Sukru Okan was making its way towards the Ukrainian port of Izmail, the defense ministry said. Refinitiv shipping data showed the ship was heading north towards the coast of Bulgaria.

Quote

“To forcibly stop the vessel, warning fire was opened from automatic weapons,” the Russian defence ministry said.

The Russian military boarded the vessel with the help of a Ka-29 helicopter.

Quote

“After the inspection group completed its work on board, the Sukru Okan continued on its way to the port of Izmail,” the defense ministry said.

Reuters could not immediately reach the vessel or its owners for comment.

On some level, they know things get dicey if they start sinking or impounding third-party ships in large numbers.  But the Russian dumbshits could be setting themselves up for another sinking if they keep this up - Ukraine could follow these ships to see if they get boarded or run a decoy and then run a USV or whatever into the Bykov ship.

It's got a crew of 80, so it's not a small little patrol boat like we think:

Patrol_ship_Vasily_Bykov.jpg

 

#71037
James Nachtwey was in Ukraine at the start of the war, photographing the bodies of civilians that Russian troops had executed. Nachtwey said that of all the military brutality he captured in his career, the Russians “stood apart.” https://t.co/0Q8sRZLC53

 

#71038

Phillips P. O'Brien's weekend update. Talks about Crossing the Dnipro.

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Moving Around Russian Reserves--Cross-Dnipro Operations: Flexibility of Area of Offensive Operations--Ukrainians have to fight their war.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
     
 
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Weekend Update #41

Moving Around Russian Reserves--Cross-Dnipro Operations: Flexibility of Area of Offensive Operations--Ukrainians have to fight their war.

Aug 13
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Hi Everyone,

This is my last weekend before heading back to work after a summer holiday, so again the update will be on the shorter side. Hopefully you will find it interesting nonetheless. This was actually one of the more interesting weeks for a while in understanding how Ukraine has adapted in strategy for the counteroffensive. They continue to try and find an area of weakness, and that involves constantly pressing to find areas which the Russians have not defended as well.

Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

  Image  
General Staff Ukraine: The Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to conduct an offensive operation in the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdyan areas. They are fixed at the reached boundaries, inflict fire damage with artillery on detected enemy targets,

Moving Around Russian Reserves--Cross-Dnipro Operations

The most interesting development of the week was the story (which grew from an internet rumor) to something more concrete, about a Ukrainian operation across the Dnipro near the town of Kozachi Laheri (about halfway between Kherson and

  https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama  

Nova Kakhovka, on the east/left bank of the river. See Deep State Map below for location. Why I found this interesting from the start, and I gently started mentioning it in tweets early in the week, is that the news started coming out from Russian sources—who seemed concerned that something out of the ordinary was going on in this area.

I wrote my midweek update about the raid and what it could mean.

Now the Ukrainians have been doing raids up and down the Dnipro for months—and they were just that, raids. They’ve been the temporary insertion of small numbers of light forces to probe Russian positions, take prisoners, etc. The Kyiv Independent has even published a story about these raids.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-troops-regularly-cross-dnipro-river-probing-russian-defenses-in-kherson-oblast/#:~:text=On%20Aug.%209%2C%20the%20Kyiv,held%20territories%20across%20the%20river.

It includes an interesting youtube clip about these operations

JLOPG51y2Lo

Now, why this most recent operation started sending some different signals was that the Russian sources started making very worrying signs, but the Ukrainians remained completely silent. The Ukrainians sometimes talk openly about operations as a form of disinformation and confusion, but if something really matters, they clam up fully and say nothing at all (at least that is my impression). The Ukrainians certainly did not want to bring any attention to this operation at all, while Russians sources seem very concerned and vocal.

When the story first started being discussed most people judged it was another pretty small raid. The Guardian published a story that implied it was around 50 soldiers in fewer than 10 boats.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/09/ukrainian-force-cross-dnipro-river-bid-breach-southern-frontline-kherson-city

However, this operation (Im not using the word raid) seemed different. It was not automatically a raid, something that would definitely result in a withdrawal back across the river to the Ukrainian controlled bank. Instead it seemed to be a far larger force that was sent in with the possibility of staying. And it has been interesting to see that the analysis is shifting on it. The ISW, which first judged the operation as a pretty limited raid, yesterday upgraded its assumptions, saying that it might be something more.

NEW: Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are maintaining a presence on the east (left) bank of the #Dnipro River in #Kherson Oblast in contrast to previous raids, but ISW does not yet assess that these positions constitute a bridgehead.🧵https://t.co/g0S9mO55Mj

The issue the ISW analysis is wrestling with is whether this is ‘bridgehead’ or not—in other words an attempt to establish a permanent crossing point of the Dnipro across which the Ukrainians could bring heavier loads of supplies and even armored vehicles. What I would say is that the Ukrainians are seeing if they can build a bridgehead here (or near here). To do that, they need to see what the Russians have in terms of fires and counterattacking possibilities. Indeed, the Ukrainians might want to see if they could fight off the expected Russian counterattack before attempting to construct better supply lines across the river.

So far there are some interesting signs that this operation is posing real problems for the Russians (or more likely that it has discovered a location that the Russians had only weaker, lighter forces in as they had had to send their reserves to other places across the vast front line). Here we are, about 6 days into the operation (already that would make it quite an advanced ‘raid’) and the Russians seem to have struggled in mounting a large counterattack. Right now, the Ukrainians if anything seem to have the advantage in fires, as their troops on the left bank are fighting close enough to Ukrainian artillery on the east bank to receive strong support. Indeed, the stories circulating are that it is the Russians who are now having to redirect reserves back to Kherson, having been caught out by this operation.

Ukrainian military analyst Mashovets reports that the russians are hecticly sending their strategic reserves(!) to #Kherson region in order to counter the ongoing Ukrainian build-up of a bridgehead on the Eastern bank of the Dnipro river.

Why this Ukrainian operation is important, therefore, is two fold. It shows the Ukrainians overall strategy in the counteroffensive and how it is not fixed to a certain area/place, and second how the Ukrainians have flexible operations. This is an operation that could become an attempt at a major bridgehead. Either way, it has posed a nasty dilemma for the Russians—do they bring reserves that they probably intended for the centre of the line (Zaporizhzhia) to the edge in Kherson? Or do they take a risk and try to make do with what they now have in Kherson, and gamble that they have enough to keep the Ukrainians from establishing a bridgehead?

I will end by saying that this tweet thread by Thomas Theiner, has held up very well indeed.

Kozachi Laheri thread:1) it wasn't a raid2) 🇬🇧 SAS/SBS trained special forces secured the landing grounds3) lots of light infantry has been ferried across the Dnipro4) Ukrainian forces are steadily expanding the beachhead5) russia has 0 armored and 0 mechanized forces1/2

Flexibility of Area of Offensive Operations--Ukrainians have to fight their war

The raid also brings back the idea that the Ukrainians could still eventually commit large armored reserves almost anywhere on the line. Yes, the Ukrainians still have large armored reserves—what have you not seen much of lately? That would be new pictures of destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles. They are still keeping many of their new armored forces back from the line, or rotating them in and out to maintain a powerful reserve. Believe me, if the Russians had new pictures of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles (like they did in mid June) they would be trumpeted to high heaven.

The Ukrainians meanwhile are trying their strategy of pressing in a number of places across the line, making small advances (though they are getting steady) and at the same time degrading Russian forces. In the Zaporizhzhia front they seem to be concentrating on expanding two bulges; one directed at Robotyne to the west and another heading now to the south of Staramaiorske in the east. Ive put exaggerrated markers around them.

  https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama  

These are slowly but surely approaching the main lines of Russian defenses. This again poses the questions for the Russians that the cross-Dnipro raid asked. Do they commit more and more of their reserves to hold them back (as they have done), or not? The Ukrainians have the initiative here and the Russians need to decide what to do to try and stop them.

Overall, Ukrainian advances in two months in these area are actually relatively extensive for this war over the last year. Remember it took the Russians about a year (May 2022 to May 2023) to advance from Popasna to seize all of Bakhmut (approx 30 kilometers or 20 miles). The Ukrainians have taken more than half this amount in two separate drives (10-12 miles) in about 2 months—or one sixth the amount of time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html#:~:text=The%20Institute%20for%20the%20Study,breakthrough%20to%20be%20potentially%20decisive.%E2%80%9D

At the same time they have done it by having to attack into prepared, well defended positions. Moreover, at the same time they have retaken much of the ground seized by the Russians to the north and south of Bakhmut. Its not pretty, but its showing progress, trying to limit Ukrainian losses—and posing very real problems for the Russian defenses.

Ukraine has no other option, btw. The Ukrainians were armed this way (very problematically as Im sure you have heard me say time and time again), and its all they can do. In the short term its unlikely that they will receive anything new that will drastically upgrade their capabilities (though ATACMS and German Taurus missiles would be nice). As such, they know what they have, and they are doing what they can—and they are showing much greater relative success than the Russians did last year.

And they are asking difficult questions of the Russian forces—where do they prioritize? For all we know the Ukrainians might open up another line of operations, if they discover that the Russians have weakened other parts of the line in their attempts to stop the Ukrainian attacks ongoing in Zaporizhzhia and across the Dnipro.

A quick aside on this. I was really pleased yesterday to see more people starting to answer the self-serving criticism that has been made of the Ukrainians that they stopped trying to follow their NATO trained combined arms tactics and reverted to their old way of doing business.

Isobel Koshiw (a great journalist who has been writing for the Guardian) put out a piece on Ukrainian frustration about this question.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-russia-training-nato-west-military/

The Ukrainians didnt ‘chose’ to abandon their NATO trained tactics—the NATO trained tactics didnt hold out the prospect of success. The Ukrainians have done better since not trying to break Russian lines directly but instead to try and corrode Russian resources.

And they will continue.

 

 

 

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#71039
18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I still wonder - in theory, if the Russians are as stretched thin as we think they are, and if Putin actually knows it, then he literally can't afford to pull thousands of Russian soldiers off the line to go deal with Wagner, because it would open up a hole for the Ukrainians.  And he can't rely on FSB or the Chechens to deal with Wagner, because even if he has the numbers, sending a bunch of dudes used to threatening civilians or making TikTok videos up against Wagner would not end well for them, and Wagner may end up even stronger.

We know that Putin doesn't trust a lot of people (why would he, he's ex-KGB) and keeps going back to his long-time inner-circle (who are fucking this war up). Based on his public comments, he knows that drones are hitting in or near Moscow, he knows that the Ukrainians are hitting the bridges around Crimea as well as Russian shipping/ships, and so on some level he's got some awareness - his TV people are not out there claiming they still own Kharkiv or Kherson or any other major city that they hit after Feb. 2022.

I think on some level Putin has got to be paralyzed, and not an analysis paralysis kind of thing - I don't think he knows what to do, and I don't think he knows of anybody he can trust enough to let them take the military and do something different from what's being done. Prigozhin may very well have been it, and if Priggy did in fact mutiny, now he's terrified that A) Moscow was wide open for Wagner and B) he doesn't know who to trust in general since his generals didn't come running to Moscow to head Wagner off.  Putin can't take a chance on somebody outside of his circle doing something different with the military because he has to know that he has their complete, 100% obedience, which he gets with Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Only leverage that Putin has is the families of his enemies, but if he uses that leverage, then his enemies will have nothing holding them back.

I've been wondering if the Ukrainians have pulled another rope a dope on the Russians, by attacking on the southern front into the teeth of their defense, towards Tokmak and the like, all the while planning to really planning to get the Russians to divert troops and resources from the Kherson front to the south.  We know the Ukrainians have been rotating their forces at the southern front, does it set up like last fall when everyone thought the attack would be Kherson and then boom, Kharkiv?  In this instance, much of the attention has been on the southern axis, but now with the Ukrainians seemingly setting a bridgehead in Kherson has the stage been set for a major push there?  

#71040
2 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

This is probably stupid, but I've been thinking about that whole episode, and I think that it isn't really over yet.  Pringles was convinced to stop and pull back, much of his force was nationalized into the Russian Army, but he was not imprisoned, he still has a force and is building it back up, and seems to be still involved.  I think that Pringles pulled back before he was overextended and while he could still preserve some of his force and prestige.  On the other hand, Putler was badly weakened, but has still held onto the intelligence apparatus.  Since then they have been circling each other, looking for opportunities to get in a body blow.  Neither has won, yet.  We just have to wait for one to make a mistake and let the other put a knife in him.

The ‘official’ Russian narrative now is that they let Pringles go through with it so that Putin could weed out the military leadership who supported the coup thing.   Sort of makes sense but too much sense, so that couldn’t have been it.  

#71041
5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fuck, Mig-23s made it all the way to a Michigan air show.

NOW - MiG-23 aircraft crashes during an air show in Michigan.pic.twitter.com/UVPGNh0viZ

 

So are we just flexing by shooting down locally owned russian shit boxes flying over Michigan?

Edited by MissingInAction
Inverted

#71043
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So, they weren't willing to tangle with ships from Israel, Turkey/Georgia, or Greece, even though they threatened those ships. 

But they would fire on a Palau-flagged ship, forcing it to allow them to inspect it.

But the interesting thing is that they allowed it to continue to Ukraine, even thought they've claimed the grain deal is off. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-warship-warning-shot-black-sea-cargo-grain-deal-rcna99637

On some level, they know things get dicey if they start sinking or impounding third-party ships in large numbers.  But the Russian dumbshits could be setting themselves up for another sinking if they keep this up - Ukraine could follow these ships to see if they get boarded or run a decoy and then run a USV or whatever into the Bykov ship.

It's got a crew of 80, so it's not a small little patrol boat like we think:

Patrol_ship_Vasily_Bykov.jpg

 

I'll point out here that Palau is under a Compact of Free Association with the United States, under which the US is responsible for all Palauan international defense issues (although we are not allowed to declare war on their behalf). That could be a interesting twist.

(For those of you who are history buffs - okay, all of you - one of the Palauan islands is Peleliu, which any Marine will know.)

#71045
7 hours ago, flatdawgs said:

I'll point out here that Palau is under a Compact of Free Association with the United States, under which the US is responsible for all Palauan international defense issues (although we are not allowed to declare war on their behalf). That could be a interesting twist.

(For those of you who are history buffs - okay, all of you - one of the Palauan islands is Peleliu, which any Marine will know.)

And it turns out the ship is Turkish-owned and apparently now headed to Romania.  

  • Popular Post
#71046
BREAKING:Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW) has arrested 2 Russians who were were putting up Wagner Group recruitment stickers in Krakow and Warsaw.Both men also disseminated other forms of Russian propaganda and will face charges for espionage.Via @DominikSerwacki

 

Russians who have arrived to work in the occupied territories in Zaporizhzhia & Kherson say they were shocked when they realized just how hated Russia is by locals.They say that after what has happened, Ukrainians will hate Russia even 100 year from now

 

 

#71047

With big gains eluding Ukraine's military this year, planners are considering how training and new equipment might tip the battlefield balance in spring
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-slog-prompts-focus-on-next-years-fight-d638cdf7?st=k28djalty4khiyl&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
 

My opinion- handwringing over how much (and what type) aid the US will provide is frustrating. I’m just going to assume that the US will give enough for Ukraine to not lose. In order for Ukraine to win, Europe is going to have to step up and go on a wartime production footing. If Europe declines to do so, out of a feeling that this is the US’ job, this conflict can stay in an ugly grinding mode for a while. 
 
Despite current bipartisan support for Ukraine, I don’t see anything political happening this next year to increase US support. 

#71049
The #German automaker Mercedes-Benz has completely disconnected #Russian dealers from its software.Access to online systems for maintenance and troubleshooting is also limited.The lack of official software can increase the time it takes to repair and maintain cars, as well as…

 

The #German automaker Mercedes-Benz has completely disconnected #Russian dealers from its software.

Access to online systems for maintenance and troubleshooting is also limited.

The lack of official software can increase the time it takes to repair and maintain cars, as well as create problems with updates for new cars.

#71050
30 minutes ago, statsman said:

My opinion- handwringing over how much (and what type) aid the US will provide is frustrating. I’m just going to assume that the US will give enough for Ukraine to not lose. In order for Ukraine to win, Europe is going to have to step up and go on a wartime production footing. If Europe declines to do so, out of a feeling that this is the US’ job, this conflict can stay in an ugly grinding mode for a while. 

You might appreciate this - he talks about some of those aspects in his latest video

 

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