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#73601
59 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

Better view of the Verbove section. I think AFU will continue to clear follow the trenches in to the east and south slowly expanding their salient.

 

 

I really appreciate that second map, as it puts into perspective how much of a slog this has been. Below, I zoomed in a little more to measure out a mile, and three wide open fields make up only a little more than a mile. This is some tough work.

 image.thumb.png.7c61955c537115c9281d92c34b7b284c.png

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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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#73602
26 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

well shit, sorry. Thread moves fast and I went back multiple times and didn't see it.

Is this a diplomatic bluff to resolve the grain issue more favorability for Poland?

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#73603
50 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine is upset about the blocking of Ukrainian grain through several European countries because it fucks Ukraine's ability to move grain out of the country. Poland is getting pissy because they feel like Ukraine isn't being appreciative enough of what Poland has done foe them. That's about it.

I'm starting a conspiracy theory that Poland wants Ukraine to fail, so then Russian annexes Belarus and attacks one of the Baltics or Poland, and then Poland can conquer Belarus, Ukraine, and part of Eastern Russia and create a new Polish Empire, one that will rival the Kiwi Polish Empire.

#73604
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm starting a conspiracy theory that Poland wants Ukraine to fail, so then Russian annexes Belarus and attacks one of the Baltics or Poland, and then Poland can conquer Belarus, Ukraine, and part of Eastern Russia and create a new Polish Empire, one that will rival the Kiwi Polish Empire.

Well, if you go way back on this thread to late January 2021, you'll see me express the concern that Putin might, if he were really smart, approach Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland and offer to partition Belarus and Ukraine with an aim of restoring the pre-1939 borders.

Knowing what we know know, I think we can say that Hungary would've jumped at that offer.  I don't know about Slovakia and Romania.  Poland likely would've rejected it.  But who knows?

But had the offer been made and accepted, it would've prevented any effective Western response.  Ukraine would've never been able to defend against a Russian invasion carried out in conjunction with an invasion from the west.  But even if it had, the United States and the UK would've have any way of getting weapons into Ukraine.

But in any event, Putin isn't very smart.  And that isn't a Putin idea.  It's more like a Stalin idea.

#73605
3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Germany has basically said they'll provide the Taurus missiles when we provide ATACMS.

Germany has not refused to provide long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, but it takes time to make a decision. This was stated by German Defense Minister Pistorius."We are not refusing the supply of cruise missiles. We are considering the request and its consequences.…

 

Could be total bullshit, but I remember reading somewhere that Germany may have a legal issue with providing Taurus due to the related software needed to operate it. Can’t recall the exact details, but I think it was something like “once a country is given Taurus capabilities, they have the ability to counteract anyone else using Taurus missiles.” Because of that, their third-party contracts have a lot of guarantees to ensure Germany doesn’t just hand them out willy nilly. So there’s an enormous risk with them falling into the wrong hands. Again, that could be total bullshit

#73606
58 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, if you go way back on this thread to late January 2021, you'll see me express the concern that Putin might, if he were really smart, approach Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland and offer to partition Belarus and Ukraine with an aim of restoring the pre-1939 borders.

Knowing what we know know, I think we can say that Hungary would've jumped at that offer.  I don't know about Slovakia and Romania.  Poland likely would've rejected it.  But who knows?

But had the offer been made and accepted, it would've prevented any effective Western response.  Ukraine would've never been able to defend against a Russian invasion carried out in conjunction with an invasion from the west.  But even if it had, the United States and the UK would've have any way of getting weapons into Ukraine.

But in any event, Putin isn't very smart.  And that isn't a Putin idea.  It's more like a Stalin idea.

Slovakia's government looks to be heading from pro-Western to pro-Russian.

#73607
3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine is upset about the blocking of Ukrainian grain through several European countries because it fucks Ukraine's ability to move grain out of the country. Poland is getting pissy because they feel like Ukraine isn't being appreciative enough of what Poland has done foe them. That's about it.

BREAKING:Zelensky, Duda & Nauseda have met in New York City to calm down emotions.The Lithuanian President is mediating between Poland & Ukraine.He said that unity is needed not just for the security of individual states, but for the entire region.#LublinTriangle🇵🇱🇱🇹🇺🇦

 

Somebody loaned Z a suit and a razor! 
That’s gonna ruin his image.

#73608
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm starting a conspiracy theory that Poland wants Ukraine to fail, so then Russian annexes Belarus and attacks one of the Baltics or Poland, and then Poland can conquer Belarus, Ukraine, and part of Eastern Russia and create a new Polish Empire, one that will rival the Kiwi Polish Empire.

Kiwi? 
WTF are the New Zealanders doing in Eastern Europ?

#73609
1/ A new analysis has found that mobilised Russians who have been sent to Ukraine have only survived, on average, for 4.5 months before being killed. One in five of the mobilised has not survived longer than eight weeks. ⬇️
3/ At least 130 died within the first month of mobilisation, with some being killed just days after arriving in Ukraine. 20% were killed within two months, with the average mobik dying within 4.5 months. 0.2% lasted 11 months before they were killed.

 

Yikes

#73612
2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, if you go way back on this thread to late January 2021, you'll see me express the concern that Putin might, if he were really smart, approach Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland and offer to partition Belarus and Ukraine with an aim of restoring the pre-1939 borders.

Knowing what we know know, I think we can say that Hungary would've jumped at that offer.  I don't know about Slovakia and Romania.  Poland likely would've rejected it.  But who knows?

But had the offer been made and accepted, it would've prevented any effective Western response.  Ukraine would've never been able to defend against a Russian invasion carried out in conjunction with an invasion from the west.  But even if it had, the United States and the UK would've have any way of getting weapons into Ukraine.

But in any event, Putin isn't very smart.  And that isn't a Putin idea.  It's more like a Stalin idea.

zero chance any of them would have gone along with getting rid of a sovereign nation by force.  That's a Russian thing.  

#73613
Biden announced the allocation of a new package of military aid to Ukraine while also confirming that the first Abrams tanks will arrive in Ukraine next week.

 

The US officially announced a new aid package to Ukraine of $325 million. "The arms and equipment include additional air defense munitions to help strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses against aerial assaults from Russia now and in the coming winter, when Russia is likely to renew…
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#73614
The headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol on fire following Ukrainian missile strikes. https://t.co/jLjn2P9Zrm— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able)

 

#73616
To illustrate the evolution in Ukrainian long-range strike capability:20/08/22 Ukrainian forces use a $10,000 Mugin-5 Pro drone to hit the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. They bought the drone from AliExpress.22/09/23 They hit the same building with a cruise missile.

 

#73617
Russia has been striking energy infrastructure and substations for two weeks already,- Ukrainian PM Shmyhal stated.“The winter will be challenging, but we are undoubtedly better prepared for it, as we understand what the enemy is preparing and the threats and challenges we all…

 

🇺🇸 The US announced a new aid package worth 325 million dollars.The capabilities in this package include:▪AIM-9M missiles for air defense;▪Additional ammunition for HIMARS;▪Avenger air defense systems;▪.50 caliber machine guns to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems;▪155mm…

 

 

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#73618

It's obvious that Ukraine took out the air defenses of Sevastopol and now they are running train on it. 

 

 

 

#73619
30 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It's obvious that Ukraine took out the air defenses of Sevastopol and now they are running train on it. 

And if Russia moves backups from elsewhere, that opens up gaps in those areas.  I doubt they'd pull air defense from Russia proper, so what part of the front do they want to open up to Ukrainian attack?

Meanwhile, thanks to Ukraine taking out air defenses and radars on those platforms and in Crimea, they appear to be opening up shipping from Odesa. It's like they are daring the Russians to get out into the Black Sea.

Ukraine strikes the HQ of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol as it unilaterally reopens commercial shipping to and from Odesa. https://t.co/LzB4BHfSgv

 

#73620
1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:
To illustrate the evolution in Ukrainian long-range strike capability:20/08/22 Ukrainian forces use a $10,000 Mugin-5 Pro drone to hit the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. They bought the drone from AliExpress.22/09/23 They hit the same building with a cruise missile.

 

Evolution is one way to frame it.  Devolution is another. Then: we could hit places with a toy. Now: it takes a $10MM import. 

#73621
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Evolution is one way to frame it.  Devolution is another. Then: we could hit places with a toy. Now: it takes a $10MM import. 

The drone hit it, but didn't really damage anything. The cruise missile is going to fuck it up.

#73622
27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Evolution is one way to frame it.  Devolution is another. Then: we could hit places with a toy. Now: it takes a $10MM import. 

What? How big of a warhead do you think the drone had? 

22 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The drone hit it, but didn't really damage anything. The cruise missile is going to fuck it up.

This. 

#73623
16 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, if you go way back on this thread to late January 2021, you'll see me express the concern that Putin might, if he were really smart, approach Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland and offer to partition Belarus and Ukraine with an aim of restoring the pre-1939 borders.

Knowing what we know know, I think we can say that Hungary would've jumped at that offer.  I don't know about Slovakia and Romania.  Poland likely would've rejected it.  But who knows?

But had the offer been made and accepted, it would've prevented any effective Western response.  Ukraine would've never been able to defend against a Russian invasion carried out in conjunction with an invasion from the west.  But even if it had, the United States and the UK would've have any way of getting weapons into Ukraine.

But in any event, Putin isn't very smart.  And that isn't a Putin idea.  It's more like a Stalin idea.

Reuters and the NYT are both sufficiently worried about the Slovaks and their election on Saturday. It appears that they have taken the Kremlin's bait hook, line, and sinker.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/not-single-round-slovak-election-could-see-kyiv-lose-staunch-ally-2023-09-21/

  • Popular Post
#73624

FUCKING FINALLY

⚡️ "Biden informed Zelensky that the US will send a small number of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine",

 

#73625

bada BOOM

 

I'll just leave this here: https://t.co/F9z17EoyKO

 

Edited by Neonmoon

#73627
2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:
The headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol on fire following Ukrainian missile strikes. https://t.co/jLjn2P9Zrm— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able)

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-black-sea-fleet-hq-up-in-flames-after-ukraine-missile-strike
 

“The headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol was in flames Friday after being hit by a Ukrainian missile. 

The latest Ukrainian success against Russian naval targets in the occupied peninsula was confirmed by the city's Russian-appointed governor, Mikhail Razvozhayev, who urged locals to avoid the city center in a post on the Telegram messaging app.”

More at the link but this is great 

#73628
19 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine is upset about the blocking of Ukrainian grain through several European countries because it fucks Ukraine's ability to move grain out of the country. Poland is getting pissy because they feel like Ukraine isn't being appreciative enough of what Poland has done foe them. That's about it.

BREAKING:Zelensky, Duda & Nauseda have met in New York City to calm down emotions.The Lithuanian President is mediating between Poland & Ukraine.He said that unity is needed not just for the security of individual states, but for the entire region.#LublinTriangle🇵🇱🇱🇹🇺🇦

 

It sounds like everybody else here but me has this all figured out, but in the event there are others playing checkers, this CNN video interviewee says this is domestic political pandering for their upcoming elections next month.

#73629
6 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-black-sea-fleet-hq-up-in-flames-after-ukraine-missile-strike
 

“The headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol was in flames Friday after being hit by a Ukrainian missile. 

The latest Ukrainian success against Russian naval targets in the occupied peninsula was confirmed by the city's Russian-appointed governor, Mikhail Razvozhayev, who urged locals to avoid the city center in a post on the Telegram messaging app.”

More at the link but this is great 

Quote

The hit on what should be the best-protected building in Crimea was further proof of Ukraine’s recent progress in degrading Russia’s air defense capability over the Black Sea—ending Russian air dominance not just over the sea itself but much of southern Ukraine. It came as a ship carrying more than 17,000 tonnes of grain left the Ukraine port of Chornomorsk as part of Kyiv’s campaign to reopen trade routes despite a Russian blockade.

george lucas foresaw so much

#73630
19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

FUCKING FINALLY

⚡️ "Biden informed Zelensky that the US will send a small number of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine",

 

Maybe a token amount sufficient enough to provide Germany "cover" to send the Taurus?

#73631
4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Maybe a token amount sufficient enough to provide Germany "cover" to send the Taurus?

Seems that way. It’s the same play as USA sending Tanks, once they said yes, the floodgates opened up for other NATO members to send them. This will have the same effect. 

#73632
5 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Maybe a token amount sufficient enough to provide Germany "cover" to send the Taurus?

seems to be a recurrent theme, just like the Abrams announcement

#73633
Just now, Gengs1 said:

Seems that way. It’s the same play as USA sending Tanks, once they said yes, the floodgates opened up for other NATO members to send them. This will have the same effect. 

I don't know what else is out there, outside of the Taurus (anyone else have the Ford product in their mind?) but I believe the UK and France have already sent their equivalents.

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#73634
2 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I don't know what else is out there, outside of the Taurus (anyone else have the Ford product in their mind?) but I believe the UK and France have already sent their equivalents.

A flying Ford Taurus would fuck some shit up.

#73635

The Taurus has some stealth features and a slightly larger warhead than the Storm Shadow.

Edited by kevwun

#73636
5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

A flying Ford Taurus would fuck some shit up.

Loaded with about 4k lbs of air burst explosives and dropped from a B-52.  Could really push things over the edge for Ukraine.  

#73637
25 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

george lucas foresaw so much

Apparently the Ukrainians have been hammering Russian comms/internet as well, so yeah.

7 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

A flying Ford Taurus would fuck some shit up.

5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The Taurus has some stealth features and a slightly larger warhead than the Storm Shadow.

A 17 year-old in a Ford Taurus is going to try and fuck something.

#73639
25 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

A flying Ford Taurus would fuck some shit up.

I had one at 17, you'd be surprised how aerodynamic it is, and it's off road capability.  

#73640

Reportedly the ATACMS for Ukraine will be armed with cluster bomblets as opposed to a single warhead.

Quote

But the cluster-armed version of ATACMS are more plentiful than those topped with a single — or “unitary” — warhead and are no longer considered a front-line U.S. weapon. From an estimated original production of 2,500, some from the early 1990s, an unknown number were later refitted with unitary warheads, according to a fiscal year 2018 Defense Department publication. But many of the cluster variant remain in stockpiles. Consideration of the cluster warhead ATACMS was first reported by Reuters.

Quote

 

According to a 2022 Army publication, different versions of the cluster-armed ATACMS contain between 300 to 950 individual bomblets. It was unclear whether the aging cluster weapons remaining in U.S. stockpiles have been subjected to the same updated dud rate testing as the 155 mm artillery shells.

Last spring, Britain and France provided Ukraine with cruise missiles with a range of about 140 miles — nearly three times as far as what was previously available to Ukraine, but about 50 miles short of the farthest ATACMS range.

 

image.thumb.png.a203d0c5a0adb49564f66cda6ee7b3e5.png

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/22/atacms-ukraine-cluster-munitions

  • Popular Post
#73641

So relieved that finally we came around to a sensible position. I’ve been in Riga and gathering my thoughts from a week of thinking about this war and how to respond and have been purposefully waiting to post on this thread as I try to synthesize it all. 
 

One thing that needs to happen: Western skeptics need to come to the Baltics and breath air that is free and hear from a people who can tell you with their whole being why this is not a distraction, but the single most important thing happening in the world right now. Slava Ukrajini.

image.thumb.jpeg.56d6d61ba2cc8da39049eb4f7b2d634f.jpegimage.thumb.jpeg.71fc21118f95524ccac91a0693cf1380.jpeg

#73643
6 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

So I guess that's not suitable for the Crimean bridge

I wonder what sort of kinetic damage you could do with it?

#73644

SIAP. New footage from a tank-on-tank encounter

This was last year. Russian tank goes boom.

#Ukraine: A Russian T-72B-series tank was destroyed in #Kherson Oblast after being hit by Ukrainian fire.

Wednesday's update.

image.thumb.png.acfaf2bad7f7921027e6e854f1954127.png

A tank duel.A Ukrainian T-64BV knocked down the occupiers' T-72B3 at close range.🎥 128th Mountain Assault Brigade

 

#73645
34 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Reportedly the ATACMS for Ukraine will be armed with cluster bomblets as opposed to a single warhead.

image.thumb.png.a203d0c5a0adb49564f66cda6ee7b3e5.png

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/22/atacms-ukraine-cluster-munitions

Worth noting that Storm Shadow likely has a significantly longer range than what is listed there. MDBA advertises range "exceeding 250km," so the Post just used 250km, but other sources indicate its range is up to 350 miles. It'll depend on the variant Ukraine has received, as some export variants are limited to 180 miles range. 

#73646
20 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine is upset about the blocking of Ukrainian grain through several European countries because it fucks Ukraine's ability to move grain out of the country. Poland is getting pissy because they feel like Ukraine isn't being appreciative enough of what Poland has done foe them. That's about it.

BREAKING:Zelensky, Duda & Nauseda have met in New York City to calm down emotions.The Lithuanian President is mediating between Poland & Ukraine.He said that unity is needed not just for the security of individual states, but for the entire region.#LublinTriangle🇵🇱🇱🇹🇺🇦

 

The unstated thing is that for Poland and Ukraine to act pissy towards each other, it means neither one is all that scared of Russians.

#73649

So if the move is to get the Germans to move forward with the Taurus, here is some background info.  The bunker buster capability could be huge for the Ukrainians.  If you go after the bridge with one of these, my guess is that you would penetrate the deck with the first charge and hit a column.  We've seen that the Russians can somewhat rapidly fix a deck, column would be more crippling.  All that having been said, getting key fortified bunkers may be more value.

 

  • Popular Post
#73650
Footage of a Ukrainian Storm Shadow/Scalp ALCM hitting the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters.

 

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