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#75101

Looking like it

There are emerging reports that Belbek air base in Crimea was attacked, with reason, per the link:"At the Belbek airfield in Crimea, the occupiers have already placed MiG-31 aircraft, which, in the case of modification, can be carriers of "Daggers".1/https://t.co/CfIM8RSWsf

Lots of aviation could be lost, lots.  

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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

Posted Images

#75103
You think THAT'S bad?  Wait till you see the reviews these guys put up on "Rate My Courses" at the end of the semester.

Oh, RATE my professor. /Baylor
#75104
You think THAT'S bad?  Wait till you see the reviews these guys put up on "Rate My Courses" at the end of the semester.

Oh, RATE my professor. /Baylor
#75105
47 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Belbek is outside of Sevastopol - seems like the range is too far.

With that attitude...

#75106
48 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Belbek is outside of Sevastopol - seems like the range is too far.

For which variants of ATACMS?

#75107
⚡️One of the smugglers who tried to sell "Scythian gold" in Spain turned out to be a representative of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (MP), the SSU.Employees of the SSU, together with the Spanish police, neutralized a group that illegally exported 11 gold objects of cultural…

 

^MP = Moscow Patriarchate, which of course means the Russians stole a bunch of Ukraine's cultural items and tried to pawn it in Europe.

#75108
russian WWII rucksack

 

Footage of the Russian tank group attempting to cross the railway north of Krasnohorivka, in the Avdiivka frontline. Commentary:"A video of the 1st OTBr emerged where you can see the movement of the column through the railway. However, it was stopped.Despite the total…

 

  • Popular Post
#75109

Russians also get their history wrong, Halloween isn't pagan and doesn't seem to have anything to do with Samhain other than coincidentally falling on the same date.

"Putin's squad" rise up against Halloween.Caution: high level of cringe.Make sure you watch the ending, as well.

 

#75111

No!  Not Halloween!

I think that those broads are just mad about being called out as the witches they are.

ETA - How many Ugly Trees does Russia have?  Or did they all fall out of the same one?

Edited by Scheiss Meister

#75112
21 minutes ago, Viper said:

Russians also get their history wrong, Halloween isn't pagan and doesn't seem to have anything to do with Samhain other than coincidentally falling on the same date.

"Putin's squad" rise up against Halloween.Caution: high level of cringe.Make sure you watch the ending, as well.

 

Not surprised that coven wants to suppress Halloween.  They are also conveniently against wart cream and asking for a go fund me for brooms.  

#75113
8 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

No!  Not Halloween!

I think that those broads are just mad about being called out as the witches they are.

ETA - How many Ugly Trees does Russia have?  Or did they all fall out of the same one?

What was the casting call for that?  "Igor!  Go out and round up the ugliest hags on the face of the earth!"  Jesus.  That was the most horrifying Halloween video I've ever seen.

#75114
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

For which variants of ATACMS?

All of them unless the newer variants were fired right from the front lines. I guess they could have loaded them up on a boat.  

#75115
21 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

All of them unless the newer variants were fired right from the front lines. I guess they could have loaded them up on a boat.  

Kherson to Sevastopol is 149mi by air. Some ATACMS have a purported range of 190mi.

#75116
26 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

All of them unless the newer variants were fired right from the front lines. I guess they could have loaded them up on a boat.  

amphibious-himars-behind-saky-airbase-strike-v0-myiilfer6qg91.jpg.webp.e169d83cbdcf6a9c82b82836ab965872.webp

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Belbek is outside of Sevastopol - seems like the range is too far.

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

With that attitude...

But not with that altitude.

#75117
6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Kherson to Sevastopol is 149mi by air. Some ATACMS have a purported range of 190mi.

I don't think we've given them the good stuff yet, and they have been amazingly good about keeping them away from Russian drones and the like, which means a decent distance  behind their lines.

#75118
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't think we've given them the good stuff yet, and they have been amazingly good about keeping them away from Russian drones and the like, which means a decent distance  behind their lines.

image.gif.aa80e642c9f6a7dc4163cb5fc7606879.gif

#75119
4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't think we've given them the good stuff yet, and they have been amazingly good about keeping them away from Russian drones and the like, which means a decent distance  behind their lines.

Maybe the German Taurus missile, it's been teased as possibly being in play.  

#75120
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Kherson to Sevastopol is 149mi by air. Some ATACMS have a purported range of 190mi.

As I said, all of them unless the longest range variants were fired pretty close to the front lines. Possible, but a little risky.

#75121
5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

A rushed manufacturer with a scarcity of western electronics. This should go well.

I bet Russian air defense is just licking its chops over some fresh meat.

The Good The Bad And The Ugly Smile GIF by GritTV

#75122
21 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

As I said, all of them unless the longest range variants were fired pretty close to the front lines. Possible, but a little risky.

The longest range variants have one warhead as well I believe.

I'm sure the Russians will post photos of the missile casing soon enough, and we'll all see it was some missile we weren't expecting.

#75123
1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Maybe the German Taurus missile, it's been teased as possibly being in play.  

They did just give them a new round of aid 

#75124
16 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

They did just give them a new round of aid 

The thing about the Taurus is, it's more of a bunker buster type, although there are variants, but it wouldn't make a ton of sense for this sort of strike.  We've all seen published data on ranges for ATACMs, but real ranges could be/probably are a bit different than we know.  Straight up ballistic trajectory might be one thing, but a different configuration or trajectory could be possible, and we just don't know about it.  

Though @atomheartbevo is right, the Russians will be good enough to post of video of the casing here in a few hours.  I just hope they got all the SU-31s and 25s there.  

#75125

Something else I just thought about, that might make some sense, what if the crossing of the river in Kherson was actually a diversionary tactic?  Attract all the Russian attention in the area to that crossing, meanwhile, very quietly, over a week or so, sneak as far south as possible with a HIMARs to launch an ATACMs at the base?  This presumes that would be close enough, it may well be.  

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#75126
🇰🇿🇺🇸| In a very interesting development, US Ambassador to Kazakhstan Daniel Rosemblum inaugurated a NATO liaison office in the country's capital.The news has flown under the radar, but it's a very interesting development that's had a lot of resonance in Russia in particular.…

In a very interesting development, US Ambassador to Kazakhstan Daniel Rosemblum inaugurated a NATO liaison office in the country's capital.

The news has flown under the radar, but it's a very interesting development that's had a lot of resonance in Russia in particular.

After Russia, Kazakhstan is the biggest supplier of active troops to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

  • Popular Post
#75127

Hungarians still marching. 

Despite Orban's 100% media control, the anti-Russia protests in Hungary are growing.Yesterday, thousands marched to the Russian Embassy chanting "Russia fuck off".

 

#75128
8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hungarians still marching. 

 

The last 3 years have been nuts, with 2022-2023 reshaping the balance of power and Europe's stance towards Russia, and 2023-2024 maybe reshaping the Middle East, complete with the Saudis shooting down missiles headed towards Israel, Türkiye breaking with the West, etc.

#75129

If you study history you’ll see parallels with the immediate years after the Black Death of the 1300’s.  Much more severe that time of course.  Still.  Good news is that after 150 years of constant war, Europe pulled its head out of their butts and took over the world.

  • Popular Post
#75130
1/ Hundreds of Russian soldiers may have mutinied in recent weeks as the Russian army accumulates huge losses in offensives in several regions of Ukraine. At least 173 men are reported to have been detained for refusing orders, and this may be just the tip of the iceberg. ⬇️

 

#75131

@BamaATL didn't see it explicitly mentioned in that thread (although all of the talk of the military police and FSB facilities sure points in that direction), but wonder if this is related to the reports that the Russians were having to use barrier troops around Avdiivka because the Ukrainians were hammering them and Russian troops were retreating without permission.  We know the Russians are getting fucked up really badly in that area from all the videos coming out and the amount of bitching Russian milbloggers are doing.

Russian soldiers get a choice of dying in Ukraine or being tortured by the FSB.

FOd4sc_VgAEYPwC.jpg

#75132
44 minutes ago, BamaATL said:
1/ Hundreds of Russian soldiers may have mutinied in recent weeks as the Russian army accumulates huge losses in offensives in several regions of Ukraine. At least 173 men are reported to have been detained for refusing orders, and this may be just the tip of the iceberg. ⬇️

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1717140898411114938.html

  • Popular Post
#75133
1 hour ago, BamaATL said:
1/ Hundreds of Russian soldiers may have mutinied in recent weeks as the Russian army accumulates huge losses in offensives in several regions of Ukraine. At least 173 men are reported to have been detained for refusing orders, and this may be just the tip of the iceberg. ⬇️

 

You want to know how this war ends?  It's not how the Sergeant Major predicts in 1917: "last man standing."  It's how World War I actually ended: with one side suffering a mutiny that renders it incapable of further combat.

And actually, that's how World War I ended twice.  On the Eastern Front, the Bolshevik Revolution and ancillary mutinies in the Russian Army (particularly in the four armies of the Northern Front) rendered any further Russian/Soviet resistance ineffective.  And on the Western Front, the French had a large mutiny in 1917 that threatened to cause an Allied collapse before the mutinies in the German military in November 1918 ultimately ended the war.

We're going to have to have that again.  Both Russia and Ukraine have enough men and access to enough weaponry that neither one is going to be able to get to the "last man standing."  One of their militaries is going to collapse into mutiny.

I know whom I have my money on.

#75134

F9RRZgQXMAACXL9?format=jpg&name=medium

Russian serviceman with callsign "13th" is complaining about the creation by Kadyrov of a Chechen battalion named after Sheikh Mansur. He calls Chechnya a region of "tax subsidies", and criticises Kadyrov's son Adam. 13th, along with other Russian servicemen, love attacking…

F9RrhqAXgAA2nhB?format=png&name=medium

 

#75135

 

It is very frustrating watching videos of Russians advancing only because Ukraine lacks the ammo to stop the assault. If Ukraine had 15-20k shells per day instead of like 3k or whatever, these russian assaults would have a 0% chance to succeed. Literally 0% chance.

 

#75138
Thanks to my friends at @MemorySteelUA for sending me this keyring and wallet made from pieces of destroyed Russian armour! They also very generously made a donation to friend's fundraising campaign for her dad's military unit. Great guys, great little momentos.

 

Abandoned by Russia and fearing an Azerbaijani invasion, Armenia tries to turn to the West. My piece from Yerevan, with an interview with Prime Minister Pashinyan

 

 

#75140
13 minutes ago, Von Clausewitz said:

Another option is a society and its army just collapse as it can no longer field a functioning army. Both countries have had poor demographics and birth rates, but Ukraine’s are still demonstrably worse. Basically they’d need to be killing/wounding 3 Russians per Ukrainian to match up, and that’s a conservative estimate. That isn't happening.
 

As has been stated, after the initial 3 day plan blew up, the Russian play has always been to grind it out until Ukraine army wears out or Western support dries up. Always been a good bet.
 

giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952495byh4clnendm5pyg

#75143
42 minutes ago, Von Clausewitz said:

About what? It being a good bet? Probably still is. 
 

The numbers are the numbers. 

When the Russians do insanely stupid shit like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, yes, Ukraine is above a 3:1 ratio. In terms of support, I was assured by the Russian apologists that there was no way Germany would fully back Ukraine and sanctions for Russia.

#75144
48 minutes ago, Von Clausewitz said:

About what? It being a good bet? Probably still is. 
 

The numbers are the numbers. 

Numbers you are pulling from your ass and russian propagandists. I'm thinking they're one in the ssame.

Go Away Reaction GIF by MOODMAN

Edited by MissingInAction

#75145
"The geopolitical importance of Russia will go down in times to come. It is in spite of being a nuclear power. The Wagner rebellion indicates the internal weakness and is indicative of what may lie in store for the future as far as Russia is concerned" - Chief of Defense Staff of…
war gonzo, and many others are now saying that the breach by ukr forces on the other side of the rail line south of bakhmut is real and larger than being reported by some. russians are being forced back out of the trench line.
As many stated at the time. But we were scolded by the Obama admin & supporters in the media as "warmongers" for believing the US should deter mass murder and invasion after promising to do so. They got war anyway, at a much higher price for Syrians, Ukrainians and the world. https://t.co/XzVSuKQXZC

 

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#75146

She’ll production in the US alone is producing 28,000 a month, with a plan to get 100,000 a month in 2 years.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/10/06/us-army-awards-15b-to-boost-global-production-of-artillery-rounds/

Meanwhile South Korea is filling in gaps by providing 500,000 rounds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

This also doesn’t include the rounds Ukraine have started to produce, the joint Rehmentel venture, or even the rest of Europe.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-shell-production-significantly-higher-152500962.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/23/world/europe/eu-ukraine-war-ammunition.html


All in all, Ukraine will be fine to outlast Russia when everything truly gets ramped up.

#75147

we already pulled the Russian demographic numbers multiple times on this thread, hell it was talked about even before Feb 22. 

Russia doesnt have enough "real" military age men to outlast Ukraine.  by real, I mean 17-35. after 35 the Russian males fitness ability falls off a cliff. which is why we keep seeing pics of pot-bellied 50 year olds who cant fucking stand without a cane holding a rusted rifle.

Russian Age Range by gender

that site shows that there are only 17M Russian males between the age of 15-34. 

and this study showed that only 12% of Russian Males beween 18-27 were eligible to serve. and 60% of them were not accepted due to health reasons in 2011.

Now, in a war situation, Russia will toss as many of them in as can possibly stand up, but still.  even if we assumed 15% of the 17M Russian males could technically serve.  Thats only 2.55M healthy enough Russian men who could serve country-wide if they fully mobilized and gave all available jobs to women.  With another  3M age 35-50 meatbag fodder available to die and not do much else.

 

In the meantime, the least optimistic estimates are saying that Russia has lost at least 150k killed, and another 80k or so permanently wounded.   

Yes, a large number of those deaths are the 35-50yo meatbag fodder deaths from the conscription draft.

But that still tells you that probably somewhere in the range of 5% of all Militarily healthy Russian males have already been removed from the board.   And MOSCOW AND ST. PETE REALLY HAVENT BEEN TOUCHED.

Russia is no-bullshit running out of meatbags a fuckload faster than Ukraine is running out of eligible future fighters, plus Ukraine is letting women serve in active combat roles- something Russia is not doing.

 

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#75148
#BREAKING Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that he sees no advantage in the continued presence of Russian military bases in the republic, the Wall Street Journal reports.Pashinyan said that Yerevan is looking for new partners, since Russia “failed to fulfill its…

 

#75149
2 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

And if I had a billion dollars I'd be banging 11s every day.

Every day? I mean, wouldn't you like to mix it up with a really enthusiastic 4-7 every now and then or just completely go for a 2-3 just for shits and giggles?  Hugh Grant seems to think so. 

#75150
A huge postage stamp with a map of #Russia divided into parts appeared near the Kyiv city councilIt also shows a kitty with matches, which set the map on fire.

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