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#90151

Do we have an update on how many refineries Russia has vs. how many have been attacked?  

It seems like this is something a wonk would have done.  I just don't know where to look.

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#90152
The man who thought World War II ended in negotiations now nervously calls a deeply reported story on what is self-evident even to the Russians

 

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#90153
VERY BIG TOP NEWS TODAY 🔝 🇺🇸 The US has approved the sale of ERAM air-launched missiles and equipment to Ukraine for $825 million. 🇩🇪 8th IRIS-T SLM system delivered to Ukraine, - GAU 🦩 Flamingo missile with a range of 3,000 km is already in mass production in Ukraine, — The Economist 1/6
#90155
7 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Do we have an update on how many refineries Russia has vs. how many have been attacked?  

It seems like this is something a wonk would have done.  I just don't know where to look.

Four are currently damaged. The reporting was that was was currently out of commission was ~17% of Russia's refining capacity. They had also hit export pipelines like the Druzhba pipeline. 

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#90156
On 8/27/2025 at 9:43 PM, Schulz2.0 said:
🔥 Novokuibyshevsk, Samara Region, local oil refinery attacked again! 👀 The Afipsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region was also attacked.
On 8/28/2025 at 6:42 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

The Ukrainians continue hitting Russian refineries.

❗️At night, kamikaze drones attacked the 🇷🇺Kuybyshevskiy and 🇷🇺Afipsky oil refineries
7 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:
🛢 Oil processing at Russia's Kuibyshevsk refinery, owned by oil company Rosneft, has been halted since August 28 after attacks by Ukrainian drones, — Reuters.

image.png.4190cdb25d761ff822bc675b2eb61007.png 

It is really comforting to see Ukraine transition from targeting oil storage tanks and depots to targeting the processing parts of the refineries, the large tall towers, the crackers and distillation columns. 

The tanks make huge fireballs and burn for days, but they are just large gas cans. You know, "chicks dig the long ball."

The columns "crack" the oil, breaking down the long chain hydrocarbons into simpler fluids that are separated and further processed within the refinery.

There may be 50-100 separate processing units within a world class refinery, but only a hand full of them include the towers. Destroying a pressure vessel (large propane tank) 100+ feet tall, 10+ feet in diameter, with numerous pipes going in and out, and all the associated controls and instrumentation is a much, much bigger issue. 

Ukraine w/ US "support" 2022-2023:

image.png.55f0b27a17db860c2009b7224128e9b9.png 

Ukraine fighting a war 2024-2025:

image.png.7e649affec50e9fcaa167dbed79200fa.png 

 

7 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Do we have an update on how many refineries Russia has vs. how many have been attacked?  

It seems like this is something a wonk would have done.  I just don't know where to look.

I am not a Bot. I am also not a wonk. Maybe?

This is a screenshot from a file I started when Ukraine was invaded. It is from a combination of publicly available information from multiple sources, the accuracy of which is suspect, but directionally, it is pretty accurate. 

Ukraine has targeted every significant Russian refinery (21) except the 3 highlighted. Those 3 are way far east, 1200+ miles from Ukraine.

What exactly was hit and damaged is not known. Some of these refineries (similar to Deer Park and Lake Charles) have a footprint of 1-3 square miles, 1,000+ acres. Hitting half a dozen oil storage tanks in the tank farm is much different than taking out 1 of the main process units, a mile away. 

A lot of the reporting in the media, is like a lot of reporting in the media. Good for public consumption, but a lot of BS.

Refineries make both gasoline and diesel, AFTER the oil has been refined and separated into individual components. How much of each and the various grades is determined by further downstream processing and blending units.
 

image.png.f8f4de794bc69362050d6378c77c485f.png

Ukraine is 100% doing what they need to do, fighting to continue to exist.

But the ankle bone is connected to the leg bone which is connected to the knee bone...

Decreasing refined products from Russia, means that Russia and all their customers will need to find alternative supplies, which are limited. Supply & Demand always works. Crude demand, and prices, will go down, and gasoline and diesel demand, and prices, will go up.

Make no mistake, this is a concern that both Biden & Trump shared.

It is not "price gouging" by US refiners. It is a free market at work. 

Both Valero (in progress) and Phillips are shutting down refineries in California this year. California is scrambling looking for outside supplies. Maybe build a new refinery? What? No pipelines from Texas? 

You reap what you sow. 

Edited by PTINS
typo. text.

#90157
I am not a Bot. I am also not a wonk. Maybe?
This is a screenshot from a file I started when Ukraine was invaded. It is from a combination of publicly available information from multiple sources, the accuracy of which is suspect, but directionally, it is pretty accurate. 
Ukraine has targeted every significant Russian refinery (21) except the 3 highlighted. Those 3 are way far east, 1200+ miles from Ukraine.

What exactly was hit and damaged is not known. Some of these refineries (similar to Deer Park and Lake Charles) have a footprint of 1-3 square miles, 1,000+ acres. Hitting half a dozen oil storage tanks in the tank farm is much different than taking out 1 of the main process units, a mile away. 

A lot of the reporting in the media, is like a lot of reporting in the media. Good for public consumption, but a lot of BS.

Refineries make both gasoline and diesel, AFTER the oil has been refined and separated into individual components. How much of each and the various grades is determined by further downstream processing and blending units.
 
image.png.f8f4de794bc69362050d6378c77c485f.png
Ukraine is 100% doing what they need to do, fighting to continue to exist.
But the ankle bone is connected to the leg bone which is connected to the knee bone...

Decreasing refined products from Russia, means that Russia and all their customers will need to find alternative supplies, which are limited. Supply & Demand always works. Crude demand, and prices, will go down, and gasoline and diesel demand, and prices, will go up.
Make no mistake, this is a concern that both Biden & Trump shared.
It is not "price gouging" by US refiners. It is a free market at work. 
Both Valero (in progress) and Phillips are shutting down refineries in California this year. California is scrambling looking for outside supplies. Maybe build a new refinery? What? No pipelines from Texas? 
You reap what you sow. 

A little wonky. But precisely what I was looking for and why I asked here. Most appreciated.
#90158

IMG_5134.thumb.png.6c38ea72b2a6bf2dee10135e563849ab.png

A couple hours ago this came in.

Edit: the refinery was hit one day ago about the same time, and the local officials announced that a fire started - but they put it out quickly. Sure.  

But there was another strike tonight and it sure as hell does not look like the fire has been put out.

 

Edited by Gatorubet

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#90159

Russia killed 23, including 4 children, in the massive attack on Kyiv two days ago. Angelina was 2.

Screenshot_20250830_041119_Reddit.thumb.jpg.69b3522e333b1b91f5e6af9875658d84.jpg

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#90160
Ukraine’s military intelligence struck an underground explosives depot at the Aleksin Chemical Plant in Russia’s Tula region overnight, RBC-Ukraine reports. The site stored pyroxylin powder used in ammunition and rocket engines. Explosions were heard, fireman and ambulances were dispatched.

 

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Russia will not get back its frozen assets in Europe unless it pays reparations to Ukraine. Politico earlier reported the EU is preparing to finalize plans to transfer about €200B into a fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

 

#90161
The assassination of Andriy Parubiy, the former speaker of Ukraine’s parliament and a fierce opponent of Russia, is the most significant killing in a string of high-profile murders since the war with Russia began. https://www.ft.com/content/d08aa511-882f-4b2a-bd56-aedac34dd652

 

#90162
1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Russia will not get back its frozen assets in Europe unless it pays reparations to Ukraine. Politico earlier reported the EU is preparing to finalize plans to transfer about €200B into a fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

 

It's long past time Russia's foreign assets be used to kill Russians.

#90164
5 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Russia killed 23, including 4 children, in the massive attack on Kyiv two days ago. Angelina was 2.

Screenshot_20250830_041119_Reddit.thumb.jpg.69b3522e333b1b91f5e6af9875658d84.jpg

Fuck Putin. 

#90167
Already in planning for a few companies I know. One has put a response team in to prepare life support and logistics. No one further east than Kyiv.

Any positions for a recent college grad looking for exposure to the field?
#90168
40 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Any positions for a recent college grad looking for exposure to the field?

Maybe. Told you to have him reach out to me. Check out this group. Lead is a good friend. 

https://www.moas.eu/ukraine/

I am sure he would love some support. Plus me and the kid did the research already. If he reaches out to them tell kiddo to use my name. I worked with the lead since 2004 in some fun places. 

 

 

#90170
⚡️Russian units surrounded near Dobropillia, Ukraine's military says. Russian forces have been surrounded by Ukraine's military near Dobropillia, located in the Pokrovsk district of Donetsk Oblast — currently the hottest sector of the front line. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-units-surrounded-near-dobropillia-ukraines-military-says/
🇺🇸 The US has warned Russia that it must move towards a peaceful settlement and meet with Ukraine or face sanctions, - The Guardian The warning was sent to Moscow during an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, which was called after the large-scale shelling of Kyiv.
President Zelensky announced that new strikes deep inside Russia are imminent, with both forces and capabilities already in place.

 

#90172
19 hours ago, elfenix said:

and of course it's just a way for erik prince to make more money.

Erik is about to get his ass handed to him in Haiti. The bigs are going to play in Ukraine. Amentum, KBR, Aegis, Triple Canopy, etc. 

#90173
2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Erik is about to get his ass handed to him in Haiti. The bigs are going to play in Ukraine. Amentum, KBR, Aegis, Triple Canopy, etc. 

image.gif.ad975d20a58d16ce2f56ea98d8c7ae9b.gif

#90175
22 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Any positions for a recent college grad looking for exposure to the field?

Is this young man interested in hot, young Ukranians as well?   

#90176

IMG_5137.thumb.jpeg.e939ee869174d76aea1f2e5cc8ee6427.jpeg

AI says this

Quote

AI Overview
Russia historically exported about half of its refined oil products, with the rest used domestically
However, recent Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly affected this ratio by damaging refinery capacity, causing supply issues within Russia while pushing more crude oil toward export. 
Russia's oil product balance in 2021
For a typical year before the most recent events, data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows the breakdown: 
  • Refining capacity: Approximately 6.9 million barrels per day (bpd).
  • Processed crude: 5.6 million bpd.
  • Exported products: 2.8 million bpd, or about 50% of the processed crude. 
This ratio varied by product: 
  • Gasoline: Domestic consumption was prioritized, so minimal volumes were exported.
  • Diesel: Russia's refining capacity produced about double the amount of diesel needed domestically, leading to the export of about half of its annual production.
  • Other products: Russia was also a major exporter of vacuum gasoil and heavy fuel oil. 
Shift in refining capacity in 2025
Recent Ukrainian drone attacks have created a supply-demand imbalance within Russia, temporarily disrupting this balance: 
  • Refinery outages: Attacks in August 2025 knocked out a significant portion of Russia's refining capacity, with Reuters estimating a loss of about 17%, or 1.1 million bpd, in refining capability.
  • Reduced processing, more exports: With less refining capacity, Russia is processing less crude oil into products and instead increasing its crude oil exports to make up the difference.
  • Domestic shortages: The damage has caused gasoline shortages in parts of Russia, requiring the government to intervene to stabilize supplies. This has forced Russia to prioritize the domestic market over foreign sales for certain fuels. 

Not being an oil baron, I did not know that Russia’s sale of refined fuel rather than crude oil brings in higher revenue, despite production costs.  

it is hard to imagine that the MOD‘s need for refined fuel hasn’t increased since the war.  And it seems true that the demand for fuel increases during harvest time in the fall in Russia.  Putin needs to bring in the crops - and supply his war - and bring in $ - so Ivan has to suck it up and not get gas for his Lada.  

I was hoping that Russia also relies on fuel oil for winter heat, but it looks like natural gas and coal supplies most of that.   Still, the start of gasoline shortages in Russia is a good thing. As is Ukraine’s ability to launch missiles with a greater range.

IMG_5138.thumb.jpeg.f8421e3052678becfa3bc60591c39742.jpeg

if the new flamingo can truly fly 3000 KM, then the only major refinery out of reach is the Omsk refinery. 

IMG_0743.jpeg.973d28918125d92755394f49191e3609.jpeg

#90177

This is a good summary of what happened last week. I recommend watching at 1.75 or 2x speed. Good discussion about Russia's oil industry being pretty far down the road to being completely fucked. Also the first use of the Flamingo.

Ukraine has announced their first operational use of their new Flamingo Cruise Missile against an FSB outpost in Crimea. Ukraine has aggressively been targeting Russia's air defense systems so their new cruise missile can effectively hit their targets. Russia's oil refineries continue to burn. https://youtu.be/szsXCgxfFgc

 

#90178

Zelensky: "two weeks" is almost up

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/08/31/7528685/

"Two weeks ago in Washington, it was said that this was the timeframe for Russia to be ready for real talks and a leaders’ meeting. Ukraine is undoubtedly ready for this. But the only thing Russia is doing is investing in further war. All its signals are pointing in that direction."

...

"Everyone in the world has said that a ceasefire is needed; everyone has insisted that the war must end. This was the position of China, of the prime minister of India, and of other leaders now at the summit – Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan; almost everyone else in the world also supports ending the war. Today, there is a principled statement by the Pope; we thank him for this. The only one who wants war is Russia. 

We expect that no one will tolerate the dragging out of the war; we count on a strong position from the US, Europe and the G20 countries." 

#90179

India getting active in the SCO is a signal  of real anger with the United States. But, fuck them as they’ve been a real booster of Russia and are not particularly useful for us with China.

Провёл отличную встречу с Президентом Путиным на полях саммита ШОС в Тяньцзине. Обсудили пути углубления двустороннего сотрудничества во всех сферах, включая торговлю, удобрения, космос, безопасность и культуру. Обменялись мнениями о региональных и глобальных процессах, включая…

 

#90180
The 65th Mechanized Brigade crushed a Russian armored group of MT-LBs, APCs, and a tank. Before they could even reach Ukrainian positions, 7 vehicles were destroyed and over 30 Russian troops eliminated.
#90181
On 9/1/2025 at 10:26 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

India getting active in the SCO is a signal  of real anger with the United States. But, fuck them as they’ve been a real booster of Russia and are not particularly useful for us with China.

Провёл отличную встречу с Президентом Путиным на полях саммита ШОС в Тяньцзине. Обсудили пути углубления двустороннего сотрудничества во всех сферах, включая торговлю, удобрения, космос, безопасность и культуру. Обменялись мнениями о региональных и глобальных процессах, включая…

 

I mean, we COULD have pursued a path with India that could have gotten some incremental movement TOWARDS our position and goals, instead of a path that's nakedly adversarial and confrontational thus pushing them hard further into the arms of our adversaries. I dunno, seems like that's something of an issue.

#90183
On 8/30/2025 at 2:45 PM, elfenix said:

and of course it's just a way for erik prince to make more money.

And, we have the sunk cost of the military but for Trump's political capital, we're gonna dump a couple billiion into mercs.

#90184
13 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

And, we have the sunk cost of the military but for Trump's political capital, we're gonna dump a couple billiion into mercs.

Harder for him to get kickbacks from the military.  Erik will be all over that.

 

#90185

Chat are we in a war if our regulars aren't involved but we're paying mercenaries to fight at our direction?

#90186
2 hours ago, elfenix said:

Chat are we in a war if our regulars aren't involved but we're paying mercenaries to fight at our direction?

Is there gold fringe on the flags in federal courtrooms and have Letters of Marque been drawn up?

#90187
35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is there gold fringe on the flags in federal courtrooms and have Letters of Marque been drawn up?

Many years ago, I read some mediocre political/military thriller that rested on the premise that Letters of Marque were still legal, and were actually useful in the context of the book's plot (which I really don't recall in any detail).  It was actually an interesting angle, made the book enjoyable enough.

#90188
On 8/31/2025 at 10:02 PM, Chopper said:

This is a good summary of what happened last week. I recommend watching at 1.75 or 2x speed. Good discussion about Russia's oil industry being pretty far down the road to being completely fucked. Also the first use of the Flamingo.

Ukraine has announced their first operational use of their new Flamingo Cruise Missile against an FSB outpost in Crimea. Ukraine has aggressively been targeting Russia's air defense systems so their new cruise missile can effectively hit their targets. Russia's oil refineries continue to burn. https://youtu.be/szsXCgxfFgc

 

Perun put up a good video the other day about this kind of thing...

 

#90189
12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Many years ago, I read some mediocre political/military thriller that rested on the premise that Letters of Marque were still legal, and were actually useful in the context of the book's plot (which I really don't recall in any detail).  It was actually an interesting angle, made the book enjoyable enough.

You’re in a safe place and among friends, you can go ahead and say it was a Tom Clancy novel.

#90190
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

You’re in a safe place and among friends, you can go ahead and say it was a Tom Clancy novel.

Pretty sure the author of the book I read was about 30% of a Tom Clancy.  It was not well-written.  But again, interesting enough to keep me engaged, just based on the concept.

#90191
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Pretty sure the author of the book I read was about 30% of a Tom Clancy.  It was not well-written.  But again, interesting enough to keep me engaged, just based on the concept.

The last 20-30 Tom Clancy novels are about 30% of a Tom Clancy.

The concept is interesting.  

#90193
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Pretty sure the author of the book I read was about 30% of a Tom Clancy.  It was not well-written.  But again, interesting enough to keep me engaged, just based on the concept.

so, the occasional "hot lesbian action" passage?

#90194
Just now, Gil Bang said:

so, the occasional "hot lesbian action" passage?

One can always imply such a passage, reading between the lines and whatnot.

#90195
53 minutes ago, Ghost of NMAS said:

Balance of Power by Huston?

That actually might have been it.  It was cheesy, a bit overwrought, and not particularly well-written.  But the premise was enough for me to see it through to the end.

#90197
19 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

That actually might have been it.  It was cheesy, a bit overwrought, and not particularly well-written.  But the premise was enough for me to see it through to the end.

funny, but that was the exact response to my last appeal brief and oral argument.

#90200
On 9/3/2025 at 6:55 PM, Brisketexan said:

That actually might have been it.  It was cheesy, a bit overwrought, and not particularly well-written.  But the premise was enough for me to see it through to the end.

Was it well written or was the concept at least interesting enough to enjoy the book? 

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