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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

That would be huge, and something Iran would probably consider at this point.  I find it interesting that this all started happening after the Ukrainian delegation showed up.

Like I said, Trump despises weakness, and Russia has been showing it in spades.

I don’t think they sell many to a Russia at this point as Russia’s version is more advanced, but it would make a lot of sense if it was Hamas/houthi related. 

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    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS Burning for 36 hours or longer seems kind of bad. Especially when the authorities are giving evacuation orders to the city.

 

 

My screenshot; Red icons and the Red polygon in the middle are pre October strikes.  The Red icons within the Blue polygon were the Oct 6 strikes. The Blue polygon is from the FIRMS shot in the quoted post. It appears they hit everything on the easy side of the terminal, including the rail loading/unloading facilities.

I believe Ukraine has chosen not to target the 3 large tanks on the west side of the property, because they are large, and very close to civilian infrastructure adjacent to the terminal.

Should have called me. I put out a diesel fire, at fire school, in a 6'x6' pan ~ 6 " deep, with a dry powder extinguisher. 

The protocol w/ oil & gas fires, cut off the fuel source, control the fire, and then assess. your options. Burning gas (vapor, natural gas, not gasoline) in a controlled environment is preferable to a large gas plume continuing to vent and grow, looking for an ignition source, that vaporizes everything within the plume. Most big gas fires, like the one next to Walmart in Pasadena, you isolate the fire and let it burn itself out.

Most liquid fires, try to put out the fire, and clean up the mess.

From the FIRMS data, it appears that most of the facility is burning, which probably includes the fire water system, is compromised and/or to hot to get access to.  

image.png.2dfed3589974da0ddf0978821d98c3c0.png

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

Have they not turned off the pipelines feeding that thing?

My first guess is that the terminal if fed by rail rather than pipelines.  That would be a long, and expensive, underwater pipeline (don't think they would put it on the Kerch Bridge), and given the Russia love for trains, i expect that is that they use.

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

No one yet knows why, but for the first time in 7.5 years, Iranian flagged ships have just turned on their AIS beacons, all over the world.

The oil market is taking it as a sign that Trump is about to cut a no-sanctions deal with Iran.

Needless to say, oil price would be absolutely destroyed, sealing Putin's fate.
 

Similar Dynamic Ronald Reagan used to crush the Soviet Union. Make Russia spend their capital $$$ trying to make a competing (mythical) "Star Wars" defense system, and crush their revenue stream by enticing the Saudi's and friends to flood the oil market. 

It worked, but the collateral damage to the domestic Oil & Gas Industry was irreversible. Who is gone since then? Mobil, Amoco, Texaco, Arco, Cities Service, Kerr-Mcgee, Occidental, Tenneco. 

And when the oil price is destroyed, Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco go with it.  Conoco is already reducing staff by 25%.  (Not really, they will survive and scarf up all the smaller guys that are not integrated (do not make and sell refined products).

Today, oil dropped below $59/bbl. Wall Street will force the integrated oil companies (Big Oil) to divest of assets at fire sale prices, again.

There are 3 big oil producers; The Saudi's, the US, and Russia. Kicking 2 of the 3 in the nuts is a bold strategy. It will make Greta happy.

To be clear. This is the right move. Crush Russia's ability to make war, and they will have to stop.

But I put my Good Will Hunting hat on and look down the road a piece, and it looks kind of bumpy. 

Full disclosure, I went to an estate sell this weekend. Lot of Conoco paraphernalia; he was a gas processing engineer.  I saw some personal items, asked around, it turns out I knew the guy. I bought a copy Conoco's 125th Anniversary book, still wrapped in plastic. I've posted pictures of Candi Loving from Ponca City, OK. Conoco's first big well was a lease from the Ponca Native Americans and Chief White Eagle. We lived on White Eagle Lane in Katy. 

"I remember White Eagle standing near the derrick of the first well when it blew in with a terrific roar.  He told me in sign language that I was making "bad medicine, for him, his people, and myself."

Whatever the Oil & Gas industry may be, there is a legacy of ingenuity, an unending passion and pioneer spirit, and a romantic ideal of living life on the edge, oscillating between good and bad, and rich and poor. 

I find it interesting that for me, this board, your posts, and the insights and life experiences that you all share, is all because of Ukraine and their people; they have pulled all of us in, as they personify that romantic ideal and ingenuity and spirit that I thought was a long, tall tale from yesteryear.  

7 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Hell, I remember classroom drills hiding from the nuclear attack - when we crawled under our desks in the early 1960s and we’re told not to look at the windows because of the blast damage to our retina and the shattered glass risk. 

That’s why I turned out normal

Yep, dad was a jet engine mechanic and we always lived close to the planes (B-52's) and the flight line. The 12,000 ft runways ware always a choice target. We always did the drills; the older we got, the more funny they seemed. 

You realized when it happens it happens and there is nothing you can do about it, so ... don't worry and enjoy life.

I may not be normal, but I don't care.  

Good interview with an expert (Anne Applebaum) on the narrative inside of Russia - she’s a Pulitzer Prize winner (for a history on the Gulag system), and had a book out last year,, Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World that got into how dictatorships are run these days, with the help of oligarchs, and how they prop each other up.  Interesting listen about how narratives are so important in Russia.

She gets into what change in Russia would look like and how it usually happens fast (if it fractured).  She’s written a lot on their drone industry.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo

11 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

You’re kind of a moron, aren’t you?

I could be……it may have been in 1955. 
Details get a little sketchy after 70 years.

16 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Hell, I remember classroom drills hiding from the nuclear attack - when we crawled under our desks in the early 1960s and we’re told not to look at the windows because of the blast damage to our retina and the shattered glass risk. 

That’s why I turned out normal

We didn’t do any drills at our military post schools, nor in the Catholic parochial school. 
We just knew enough to kiss our young asses goodbye.

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Good interview with an expert (Anne Applebaum) on the narrative inside of Russia - she’s a Pulitzer Prize winner (for a history on the Gulag system), and had a book out last year,, Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World that got into how dictatorships are run these days, with the help of oligarchs, and how they prop each other up.  Interesting listen about how narratives are so important in Russia.

She gets into what change in Russia would look like and how it usually happens fast (if it fractured).  She’s written a lot on their drone industry.

 

I really like her. As a layman from afar, it’s tough to judge the various pundits and analysts, but she breaks big, complex geopolitical stuff down and communicates it so clearly for people like me that I think she’s one of the best of the bunch. Quite an insightful person, too, who's called things pretty well so far. Thanks for sharing.

Russians using light aircraft to hunt drones. I'm sure this will work out and they won't hit their own drones dump a bunch of rounds into cities.

 

If they start dipping into their reserves, that means the pipeline of foreign fighters (and their prison system) has dried up. They were hoping to get their reserves up to 80,000 - 100,000 but no word if they ever pulled that off. The reservists were promised a lot - it's all volunteers, and in theory were supposed to stay within Russia and basically help supplement the military (probably logistics on the Russian side of the border).

BARS (Russia) - Wikipedia

 

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

1,400 km in.

 

 

As the crow flies, NATO HQ in Brussels is about 1,400 km from Lviv in western Ukraine.

23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Quote

The Kremlin will likely use the amendment to centralize control over the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS) units, which have been largely functioning as irregular formations and often under the supervision of Russian businessmen and officials.[19] Russian State Duma Defense Committee member Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev claimed that the proposed amendment is aimed at “streamlining” the Russian Armed Forces personnel system and structure.

The existence of private military companies under the control of potentially hostile-in-future oligarchs is surely a threat to Putin.  This looks like it will put control of those private military companies under the MOD.  Putin has to have total control of the military to survive, and the scare he got from Prigozhin is  probably still on his mind as things continue to unravel.

Also, Russia has been forcing men to sign up as reservists.   Russian law says these people cannot be called up and sent to the special military operation without a declaration of war.  Those men were willing to sign up because it meant they would not be sent to Ukraine under the current law.

So now they are changing the law that prevents the use of reservists on the front-lines in Ukraine as more meat assault fodder, which is one hell of a bait and switch.

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50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I guess the economy here in Texas is worse than we thought

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58 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I really like her. As a layman from afar, it’s tough to judge the various pundits and analysts, but she breaks big, complex geopolitical stuff down and communicates it so clearly for people like me that I think she’s one of the best of the bunch. Quite an insightful person, too, who's called things pretty well so far. Thanks for sharing.

Maybe, but Sweet God of the Israelites and all Monotheistic Religions, do I HATE the new way of "here's my half hour video on topic X."

I'm Gen X.  I am a lightning-fast reader.  Write an article.  I can read your 30 mins of rambling in 3 minutes.  I don't watch these videos, because

no-time-busy.gif

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russians using light aircraft to hunt drones. I'm sure this will work out and they won't hit their own drones dump a bunch of rounds into cities.

 

That's actually not a bad idea, Ukraine is doing something similar.  Use cheap, available tech to solve a problem.  Fly around in a light aircraft with a 10 gauge and have some fun drone hunting.

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

That's actually not a bad idea, Ukraine is doing something similar.  Use cheap, available tech to solve a problem.  Fly around in a light aircraft with a 10 gauge and have some fun drone hunting.

Just like Ukrainian snipers with 50 Cal single shot sniper rifles will have fun aiming for engine cowlings and pilot side windows.   Let the games begin.

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe, but Sweet God of the Israelites and all Monotheistic Religions, do I HATE the new way of "here's my half hour video on topic X."

I'm Gen X.  I am a lightning-fast reader.  Write an article.  I can read your 30 mins of rambling in 3 minutes.  I don't watch these videos, because

 

I usually skip most of these YT videos -- when I do watch them, it's at 1.25 or 1.50 speed -- but in this case, it's Anne fuckin' Applebaum. Of course, I'm going to watch it.

I’m still on the record that if Ukraine was selling “Sopwith Camel + Saiga” drone hunting tours that I would be first in line…

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Just like Ukrainian snipers with 50 Cal single shot sniper rifles will have fun aiming for engine cowlings and pilot side windows.   Let the games begin.

Seems like this flying is done way behind the lines.  

10 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Seems like this flying is done way behind the lines.  

Excellent point.   I guess I assumed that because Ukraine is using drones to defend territory in the front lines as a main defensive tactic to limit Ukrainian personnel losses, that this was near the front.   It makes a bunch of sense to conclude they will be using the private planes to track down drones heading for refineries and other places. 

Still, there are probably partisans and special ops people who could bring down some planes if this was happening in the middle of the boonies away from quick Russian military reaction assets and they had a good idea of target acquisition geography and timing.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Excellent point.   I guess I assumed that because Ukraine is using drones to defend territory in the front lines as a main defensive tactic to limit Ukrainian personnel losses, that this was near the front.   It makes a bunch of sense to conclude they will be using the private planes to track down drones heading for refineries and other places. 

Still, there are probably partisans and special ops people who could bring down some planes if this was happening in the middle of the boonies away from quick Russian military reaction assets and they had a good idea of target acquisition geography and timing.

 

 

The cost of a dude in a Cessna is pretty low.  Having spent a fair bit of time flying them, even though I consider myself a pretty good stick (insert FIGJAM jokes here), I would think the intercept rate would be pretty low even if you have good pilots.  Consequently, the commensurate cost of burning a partisan asset to attack one is pretty high.

Ukraine should keep its eyes on the prize:  Keep blowing up strategic assets.  

Edited by Chad Fuck

An additional thought - while a Cessna might be able to intercept the slower drones, there's no way it could take down a Flamingo.  I'm curious if/when we see video of Russian fighter's attempting to take them down with missiles.  That is, if they have the assets to cover that scenario.  

4 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Consequently, the commensurate cost of burning a partisan asset to attack one is pretty high.

Oh, I totally agree. Hence my caveat about only if there was a high chance of the shooter disappearing after the shoot-down.

I just like the psychological impact of every time Russia thinks it can limit the drone problem, whatever solution it comes up with results in failure and crashed planes and dead orcs. 

IMG_5344.jpeg.4da34c2c202e72e061d7fc0aa35d183d.jpeg

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe, but Sweet God of the Israelites and all Monotheistic Religions, do I HATE the new way of "here's my half hour video on topic X."

I'm Gen X.  I am a lightning-fast reader.  Write an article.  I can read your 30 mins of rambling in 3 minutes.  I don't watch these videos, because

 

Watch at 2x speed?

Just now, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

Watch at 2x speed?

Cool.  So what should take 3 mins takes 15 mins.

Just.  Fucking.  WRITE IT.  I don't need your goddamned vocal inflections and vocal fry and whatever other bullshit you bring to the table in your video.  Words.  On paper/screen.  That's it.

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Just.  Fucking.  WRITE IT.  I don't need your goddamned vocal inflections and vocal fry and whatever other bullshit you bring to the table in your video.  Words.  On paper/screen.  That's it.

I support your proposition, but predict that your plan to have YouTube posters voluntarily demonetized their platforms in that fashion will fail.   We don’t need to watch it, quite correctly, but they don’t need to write it down efficiently when they earn coin from the clicks.   

Just now, Gatorubet said:

I support your proposition, but predict that your plan to have YouTube posters voluntarily demonetized their platforms in that fashion will fail.   We don’t need to watch it, quite correctly, but they don’t need to write it down efficiently when they earn coin from the clicks.   

Oh, I know.  Just put it all over in the enshittification pile over there.  It's the pile that has Mt. Everest looking at it and saying "DAAAAAAAAMN."

32 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, I know.  Just put it all over in the enshittification pile over there.  It's the pile that has Mt. Everest looking at it and saying "DAAAAAAAAMN."

Yup.   i’ve been looking at all kinds of YouTube videos from content preparers that seek to show how every modern woman is incapable of being a good wife, and the opposing content saying that all men are idiot, bro children who fail to attract women.    I was literally stunned by both the volume of gender war videos, and by the positions taken by both sides.    It was like watching two different MAGA factions ignoring each other’s valid points while insisting that only they possess the truth because they’ve done their own research.   Both sides insist that almost 100% of the opposite side are side are not worth living with.

We are soon going to take a demographic hit from people in their 20s and 30s refusing to get married because they can’t stand the other gender.    The sadder thing is I think that both sides are largely correct.  Society is now made up by selfish, stupid, arrogant, mouthy non-empathetic people with no level of self introspection.  Which sort of also explains our current political situation.

4 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

The cost of a dude in a Cessna is pretty low.  Having spent a fair bit of time flying them, even though I consider myself a pretty good stick (insert FIGJAM jokes here), I would think the intercept rate would be pretty low even if you have good pilots.  Consequently, the commensurate cost of burning a partisan asset to attack one is pretty high.

Ukraine should keep its eyes on the prize:  Keep blowing up strategic assets.  

I could see them flying a Cessna or two over every major refinery/installation.  Fairly low cost, and might get a few of the drones coming in.

It's still a good indication that things are pretty dire for them if they publicly admit they can't protect their infrastructure.  This is another one of those little points that Anne Applebaum and others have mentioned that chips away at Putin's narrative about "winning" - instead of fancy schmancy AD systems, the locals see some dude in a Cessna with a gun bolted to it.  Doesn't inspire confidence.

1 minute ago, MissingInAction said:

Those cessnas wont do shit against a bunch of drones buzzing around like wasps. More likely to shoot each other. Be like Galaga up in that bitch.

Here's hoping.

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Those cessnas wont do shit against a bunch of drones buzzing around like wasps. More likely to shoot each other. Be like Galaga up in that bitch.


I picture it like I’m duck hunting with my absent minded brother. He stands up to shoot and starts following the birds and I hide in the blind so he can’t shoot me. 

8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I picture it like I’m duck hunting with my absent minded brother. He stands up to shoot and starts following the birds and I hide in the blind so he can’t shoot me. 

Is your last name "Cheney"?

 

Hundreds of young people gathered in St Petersburg to sing an outlawed song calling for Vladimir Putin to be overthrown.

In a rare moment of public dissent, the crowd joined street musicians in a central square on Tuesday night to sing anti-war lyrics that have been called “extremist” under Russian censorship laws.

“Where have you been for eight years, you f---ing monsters? I want to watch ballet, let the swans dance,” they chanted in Russian in the busy thoroughfare. “Let your grandpa tremble with excitement for Swan Lake.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/15/crowds-sing-banned-song-overthrowing-putin-st-petersburg/

Modi assured me he won’t be buying more Russo oil.

A good move by Modi. Lie to Trump and their shadow fleet price goes down.  

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is your last name "Cheney"?

he didn't say "drunk brother".

 

BTW, I remember that whole thing quite well.  Anybody with any sense knew Cheney was drunk when it happened, but the GOPers stood on their heads that it was an innocent accident.   

8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool.  So what should take 3 mins takes 15 mins.

Just.  Fucking.  WRITE IT.  I don't need your goddamned vocal inflections and vocal fry and whatever other bullshit you bring to the table in your video.  Words.  On paper/screen.  That's it.

Cool your jets there, friendo. 
Tell me how these words read on paper vs video:

Have to catch an early train, got to be to work by nine.  And if I had an aeroplane I still couldn’t make it on time  

 

8 minutes ago, Kennythetiger said:

Cool your jets there, friendo. 
Tell me how these words read on paper vs video:

Have to catch an early train, got to be to work by nine.  And if I had an aeroplane I still couldn’t make it on time  

 

So pos rep if you pulled that out of your brain. Neg rep if you’ve been holding it looking for an opening.

I was never a fan of Prince but damn if he couldn’t write some seriously great music.

On 10/14/2025 at 8:00 AM, atomheartbevo said:


“It’s not the Hunt for Red October, it’s the Hunt for the Nearest Mechanic”

Ricky Gervais Lol GIF

So about that submarine 
 

 

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Go back and tell 1980s me that in 40 years, Ukrainians flying MiG-29s would be firing American-made HARM missiles at Russian air defenses.

Confused Confusion GIF

 

 

@PTINS curious what you think of this

IEA Sees Drone Strikes Weighing on Russia Oil-Processing Till Mid-2026 - Bloomberg

"The impact from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026, the International Energy Agency says in its latest monthly oil-market report... '

Previously, we had assumed a normalization of refining activity as we approached year-end but now embed a more cautious outlook,' the Paris-based agency said in a report on Tuesday. The IEA currently sees Russian processing rates at just under 5 million barrels a day through June 2026, and a recovery toward 5.4 million barrels a day later, with the outlook to be revised as more information becomes available. '

The increasingly widespread and significant Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and infrastructure' has so far cut the nation’s crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels a day, the agency said...

With the drone strikes weighing on refinery runs, Russia raised its crude exports in September to 5.1 million barrels a day, the highest since May 2023, according to the IEA. Still, the nation’s oil-export revenues declined to a three-month low of $13.4 billion, the agency estimated.

The decline came as Russia’s crude-supply revenues, which rose $200 million month-on-month, were more than offset by a $440 million drop for oil-product exports, the report said. According to the IEA calculations, Russian fuel supplies to other countries in September reached 2.4 million barrels a day, the lowest in a decade, excluding April 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic."

 

G3TkRZrXoAANoou?format=png&name=900x900

 

G3UcEEfbAAIGihE?format=jpg&name=medium

One other thing - if the remaining refineries/operations have to somehow boost their output/throughput, that seems like a recipe for long-term wear and tear.

You know what makes for bigger explosions? Increased output…

Even if they concentrate remaining air defenses around a diminishing number of facilities, I’m confident the Ukrainians will find a way.

They’re all going down, and soon.

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Go back and tell 1980s me that in 40 years, Ukrainians flying MiG-29s would be firing American-made HARM missiles at Russian air defenses.

Confused Confusion GIF

 

 

And American Javelines would blow up Russian tanks wholesale.

And the Bradley is a dang nice machine?  That HBO movie was wrong?!

16 minutes ago, Parliament said:

And American Javelines would blow up Russian tanks wholesale.

And the Bradley is a dang nice machine?  That HBO movie was wrong?!

I would be extremely disappointed at the lack of A-10s.

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS curious what you think of this

IEA Sees Drone Strikes Weighing on Russia Oil-Processing Till Mid-2026 - Bloomberg

"The impact from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026, the International Energy Agency says in its latest monthly oil-market report... '

Previously, we had assumed a normalization of refining activity as we approached year-end but now embed a more cautious outlook,' the Paris-based agency said in a report on Tuesday. The IEA currently sees Russian processing rates at just under 5 million barrels a day through June 2026, and a recovery toward 5.4 million barrels a day later, with the outlook to be revised as more information becomes available. '

The increasingly widespread and significant Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and infrastructure' has so far cut the nation’s crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels a day, the agency said...

With the drone strikes weighing on refinery runs, Russia raised its crude exports in September to 5.1 million barrels a day, the highest since May 2023, according to the IEA. Still, the nation’s oil-export revenues declined to a three-month low of $13.4 billion, the agency estimated.

The decline came as Russia’s crude-supply revenues, which rose $200 million month-on-month, were more than offset by a $440 million drop for oil-product exports, the report said. According to the IEA calculations, Russian fuel supplies to other countries in September reached 2.4 million barrels a day, the lowest in a decade, excluding April 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic."

 

G3TkRZrXoAANoou?format=png&name=900x900

 

G3UcEEfbAAIGihE?format=jpg&name=medium

"Until mid-2026..."  

Why?  Seems all trends suggest it'll continue to only get worse.  Worse until Russia loses the war.

On the night of October 16, 2025, Ukraine's Armed Forces carried out a strike on the Saratov Refinery in Russia's Saratov region, the General Staff of the AFU said. The Saratov Refinery is one of the oldest oil refining enterprises in Russia. As of 2023, its oil refining volume amounted to 4.8 million tons. The facility is involved in meeting the needs of the Russian armed forces.

G3X75hwWgAA5GS6?format=jpg&name=large

Edited by atomheartbevo

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