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1 minute ago, Lobo said:

I hope some of y'all don't hurt yourselves jerking off to this shit all day today. 

Thanks. I followed a fairly strict hydrating regimen last night followed by a calorie-rich breakfast this morning. A quick round of Bikram yoga coming up at 9 CST and then it's off to the races.

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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Just now, mdmost said:

No, dickhead, it won't but it will hurt Russia financially. That's all the world has left to do. No one wants to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The only way to stop him is to destroy him economically. 

Dickhead?  We've met and had beers and you get all pissy like that?  Go fuck yourself, dude.

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

The UN will cease to exist after this.  NATO is going to look weak as fuck

Yeah, the rest of the world is not in a good position to react.  Every country is still dealing with a pandemic.  The western democracies are dealing with severe internal political turmoil and their people can't agree on the color of a cloudless sky.  Financial markets have been teetering for some time.  This is the worst possible time for anyone to make a stand against Russia.

I just wonder if Putin just sensed an opportunity to act unopposed.  Maybe it proves unwise for him to have done so in the long run, but certainly this act of war would have been far more dangerous for him a decade ago.

24 minutes ago, troph said:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Ukraine 

not a proper analogy. Why? US troops are stationed in Taiwan and not in Ukraine. US foreign policy may be inconsistent in many ways but not with respect to our troops where they may be.  
 

the proper China : Taiwan analogy is probably this:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Poland 

China : Hong Kong ?

Jesus fuck they're just attacking civilians now. Video of a fighter shooting rockets into a village in spoiler

Spoiler

 

 

 

Things are getting kinda spicy here, and that's understandable. But the acrimony gets in the way of free exchange.  Let's all take a breath and say the Serenity Prayer.  And maybe watch some of this video:

 

15 minutes ago, troph said:

Lotta dumb on this thread now, really wish folks would shut up and let the knowledgeable posters and those with credible twitter links have the floor. This was a fantastic thread to lurk on for months. I post a ton but this was not the thread to jump head first into now it’s filled with shit. 

That’s not how any of this works. 

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3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Dickhead?  We've met and had beers and you get all pissy like that?  Go fuck yourself, dude.

“Look, mdmost is sorry. It’s just this war and that lying sonofabitch Putin…”

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Things are getting kinda spicy here, and that's understandable. But the acrimony gets in the way of free exchange.  Let's all take a breath and say the Serenity Prayer.  And maybe watch some of this video:

 

What if we hate cats?

Just kidding.

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

No we can't.

Inflation has been the biggest story in the news for the last 6 months because it's been impacting everybody and is the quintessential kitchen table issue.  Almost every person I talk to (whether they be rich or poor) has at some point over the past few months mentioned how much their regular bills are skyrocketing.  

What do you think giving the peace sign to China would do to inflation and do you really think most Americans would stand for it?

This is exactly the reason the USA won't do anything meaningful to stop Putin's ambitions in eastern Europe or to stop China's ambitions in Taiwan/Hong Kong (if I mean when it happens) - we are not willing to make those sacrifices.

Well, inflation has been a bigger issue than it should be because of partisan political forces acting against Biden./no CR

This aint the 70s and early 80s.

3 minutes ago, sidis said:

“Look, mdmost is sorry. It’s just this war and that lying sonofabitch Putin…”

Oh, I'll buy that dickhead a beer the next time we see each other. 

6 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I just wonder if Putin just sensed an opportunity to act unopposed.  Maybe it proves unwise for him to have done so in the long run, but certainly this act of war would have been far more dangerous for him a decade ago.

I think this is partially true for sure, but Putin's been prepping for this really ever since he got electe... er, usurped the Russian presidency.  Part of his prep has been amassing a shitload of capital for himself, and very little of that in rubles.  Since 2014, he has dramatically upgraded the military and re-engineered it for exactly this moment.

I agree with you that this was the opportunity he was waiting for, but he knew for sure, especially since 2014, that he would work up to it and that it would happen.

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from our trip to Moscow in 2017. Such a surprisingly pretty place. So sad for this place to be the seat of such evil.

 

 

Edited by Celery Man

Russia's economy is basically a giant gas station. I haven't read up on it but will the US and EU sanctions impact Russian oil? Cause oil is over $100/barrel. 

I participated in it too, but perhaps someone should start a China-Taiwan thread for anyone that wants to discuss.

25 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Actually, that's a pretty big deal. UEFA Champions League Final is the biggest game in the world. Watched by billions. It's akin to taking the Olympics or World Cup away from a country. 

Bullshit.    Taking away a sporting event doesn't do fucking anything.

Well, my apologies for offending anyone. I can understand why that's a turnoff. But I am legitimately surprised by the reactions on this thread.

giphy.gif

Ooohhh….say it again
53 minutes ago, immamac said:

Not necessarily, they are many other fabs except TSMC, but if would be a big blow to semiconductors - possibly too big for China to actually deal with if the rest of the semiconductor players were forced to exit the Chinese market. 

I guess you can say there are many other fabs. But there are only three players at the bleeding edge space, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. And those entities account for essentially all chip production.  I think the rest of the industry accounts for less than 10%. 

43 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Taiwan is something like 60% of worldwide chip fab capacity. Shit, when it floods in Taiwan, global supplies are impaired for years. I'm not sure that any rational actor is willing to mess with the golden goose.

 

But the world hasnt been real big on rationality lately

This. Small clarification though, TSMC has ~55% of the foundry market. That doesn't include Intel's in-house stuff. 

Edited by Dahobbs

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

In my mind, the russian military is like Hank the Tank. A big FAT lumbering bear that isn't broadly capable, but it's hard as fuck to deal with and is pretty goddamn strong when it wants to be.

Next week is gonna be uncharted territory as we watch a western backed and modern equipped insurgency against a modern equipped army

 

Can I get some kind of clarification of why you think so? 

It was for a long time. The inept invasion of Georgia and the terrible initial showing in Chechnya, plus the study of US use of special forces changed the overall investment, and the training objectives and makeup of the Russian Army. The strong emphasis on uptempo operations saw its greatest use in the swift and decisive takeover in Crimea.

I don't actually know how they'll fare against Ukrainian troops. When they faced one another in 2014 the Russian military wiped the floor with them. Part of the impetus for the invasion is the increasing effectiveness of the weapons the Ukraines have been purchasing, and a perceived uptick in the Ukrainian military competence.

Some reports have estimated Russia has over 60% of its combined arms forces stationed at the border prior to invasion, including a significant amount of manpower from Siberia.

They'll have pretty much complete air superiority.

I fully expect something akin to what we saw in Iraq when the US invaded. Both times. 

Right now we're already seeing reports that mobile Russian troops have secured various airports in Ukraine, including one 15 miles from Kiev. 

I don't think this is the lumbering bear you're thinking it to be. The best equipped parts of the Russian army are highly mechanized, trained, supplied, mobile forces meant to operate at a high tempo. Again, how they do in actual combat against an enemy remains to be seen, but a reporter thinking that what Russia has done so far seems underwhelming is not an accurate first impression, IMO. No telling what their objectives have been, or how well they've achieved them.

14 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I mean WTF. 

 

 

Sadly and expectedly it looks like Zelensky is panicking. I really hope we have a way out for these guys.

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Sadly and expectedly it looks like Zelensky is panicking. I really hope we have a way out for these guys.

Like a government in exile way out?

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Sadly and expectedly it looks like Zelensky is panicking. I really hope we have a way out for these guys.

Yeah, just a couple of days ago he was saying this was no big deal, Russia is always a threat. I get that he had to say something to prevent any panic. But it doesn't seem like he did himself or Ukraine any favors. 

33 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Dickhead?  We've met and had beers and you get all pissy like that?  Go fuck yourself, dude.

With this declaration of war, I’d sanction him at the next bar meetup.

8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

Can I get some kind of clarification of why you think so? 

It was for a long time. The inept invasion of Georgia and the terrible initial showing in Chechnya, plus the study of US use of special forces changed the overall investment, and the training objectives and makeup of the Russian Army. The strong emphasis on uptempo operations saw its greatest use in the swift and decisive takeover in Crimea.

I don't actually know how they'll fare against Ukrainian troops. When they faced one another in 2014 the Russian military wiped the floor with them. Part of the impetus for the invasion is the increasing effectiveness of the weapons the Ukraines have been purchasing, and a perceived uptick in the Ukrainian military competence.

Some reports have estimated Russia has over 60% of its combined arms forces stationed at the border prior to invasion, including a significant amount of manpower from Siberia.

They'll have pretty much complete air superiority.

I fully expect something akin to what we saw in Iraq when the US invaded. Both times. 

Right now we're already seeing reports that mobile Russian troops have secured various airports in Ukraine, including one 15 miles from Kiev. 

I don't think this is the lumbering bear you're thinking it to be. The best equipped parts of the Russian army are highly mechanized, trained, supplied, mobile forces meant to operate at a high tempo. Again, how they do in actual combat against an enemy remains to be seen, but a reporter thinking that what Russia has done so far seems underwhelming is not an accurate first impression, IMO. No telling what their objectives have been, or how well they've achieved them.

I don't think he is entirely off. It's a lot easier for Russia to flex military its might with a neighboring country and no supply line issues. I don't think it has a ton of capacity to project force very far from its borders (not including nukes).  But, where it can operate, it can operate very effectively. 

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

Like a government in exile way out?

They sure as shit wouldn't want to base their government-in-exile in the United States.  35% of our adults are hoping Russia crushes them.  

But you raise an interesting point, it may get to a point (sooner than I thought) where their top level government officials remove themselves back to Central Europe to direct the military and logistics.  Kiev appears untenable far sooner than I thought.  Doesn't help Russia's opening move was "torch the nuclear waste storage...let the water be poisoned."  I would have thought Putin of all people would understand how the flow of water works.  

26 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, inflation has been a bigger issue than it should be because of partisan political forces acting against Biden./no CR

This aint the 70s and early 80s.

You’re right, it isn’t the 70s and early 80s. Our debt/gdp is 4x what it was then. There’s no room to really raise rates to squash inflation a la Volcker. It’s the same story throughout the world.
 

So we have to be more careful how we approach sanctions that can further fuel inflation for us and our allies. 

On 2/22/2022 at 2:13 PM, 52-80 said:

dutch nat gas futures perked up a cute 9% today.  is it gonna touch 100 this week?

 

18 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Russia's economy is basically a giant gas station. I haven't read up on it but will the US and EU sanctions impact Russian oil? Cause oil is over $100/barrel. 

yes.

and gas is up a cute 50% today (+20% yesterday), now to 135

32 minutes ago, mdmost said:

No one wants to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The only way to stop him is to destroy him economically. 

Question from someone who has only followed this topic casually:

How vulnerable are Putin's allies, i.e., his fellow Russian oligarchs?

I'm sure Putin has shielded his wealth in such a way that sanctions couldn't hurt him, but if his cronies haven't, then maybe they could be convinced to seek new management if they saw their revenue streams suddenly at risk.

(I imagine the US and EU have already tried this, but hope springs eternal.)

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

They sure as shit wouldn't want to base their government-in-exile in the United States.  35% of our adults are hoping Russia crushes them.  

But you raise an interesting point, it may get to a point (sooner than I thought) where their top level government officials remove themselves back to Central Europe to direct the military and logistics.  Kiev appears untenable far sooner than I thought.  Doesn't help Russia's opening move was "torch the nuclear waste storage...let the water be poisoned."  I would have thought Putin of all people would understand how the flow of water works.  

And again— Putin has said he wants to “de-nazify.” They understand the implicit threat. We all know the fate of Nazi leadership.

19 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I mean WTF. 

 

 

I'm assuming this was a Belarus condition for using their country as stagin area - get to NPP site as quick as possible and secure it so it can't be used as threat/risk against us.

Russia would in no way want to further radiative spread from this site either.

The more this goes on the more I think Clancy had it right. The only deterrent is probably killing/assassination of the head of state who kicks something like this off. 

1 minute ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Question from someone who has only followed this topic casually:

How vulnerable are Putin's allies, i.e., his fellow Russian oligarchs?

I'm sure Putin has shielded his wealth in such a way that sanctions couldn't hurt him, but if his cronies haven't, then maybe they could be convinced to seek new management if they saw their revenue streams suddenly at risk.

(I imagine the US and EU have already tried this, but hope springs eternal.)

Didn't this exact playbook happen the last time he invaded Ukraine and took Crimea? All of our sanctions and pressure on his oligarch buddies sure did teach Putin a lesson. That lesson apparently is the do it again and take more Ukraine land.

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

And again— Putin has said he wants to “de-nazify.” They understand the implicit threat. We all know the fate of Nazi leadership.

Which is fucking WILD because Zelensky is Jewish and has direct ancestors that were killed in the holocaust.

Just an absolutely amazingly big lie from Putin.

Dear Gerhard, we already knew what you thought and today was not the day to tell us. Kindly attach a plastic bag to your head and and stick in a hose leading directly to NS1. 
 

 

Edited by 956 Worldwide

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

35% of our adults are hoping Russia crushes them.  

Fucking absurd statement.

21 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

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from our trip to Moscow in 2017. Such a surprisingly pretty place. So sad for this place to be the seat of such evil.

 

 

Those are fun pics. I'm glad you got a chance to visit. St. Petersburg is one of the most amazing places I've ever been. I'd highly recommend it to anyone...well, I guess not really. Some day in the far future, maybe.

There are so many things to love about Russia. It's culture. It's history. Some of the greatest composers. Some of the greatest writers. The greatest movie directors. Ballet. Chess. First object to orbit the earth. First man in space. Just a huge mark on human history in so many ways, both good and bad.

I find the place fascinating. And the Russian people are so iconic. 

But there are a lot of black marks. A lot. This is only the latest. Not that every country doesn't have its share. Certainly the US does. I really wish this hadn't happened, though.

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Not sure why but this tweet and image made me tear up more than anything from last night.

Damn you and your onion cutting.   

12 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Sadly and expectedly it looks like Zelensky is panicking. I really hope we have a way out for these guys.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The more this goes on the more I think Clancy had it right. The only deterrent is probably killing/assassination of the head of state who kicks something like this off. 

just need to send in a prozzie to cough in his face and give him the covid.

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