May 3, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, TXLNGHRN10 said: Are we done ? Is that it? LOL, haven't seen something like this from NWS is awhile.. translation below each: Quote .UPDATE... The last few severe storms are just about out of our area for this morning. All models, including mesoscale runs continue to have difficulty with the variety of boundaries and forcing at all levels and scales. The best course of action in this case is to trend from the current situation and assume smaller scales of motion and boundaries will fade into the background synoptic flow/forcing, until perturbed again by a weak shortwave trough, upper level jet streak, and/or daytime/orographic heating. We have no fucking idea if it's going to rain in the next 12 hours or not. Quote The sensible weather will be mostly cloudy skies the rest of the day for our area. We kept 20 PoPs on the offhand the small scale features do not dissipate before daytime heating maximizes. A shortwave trough, upper level jet streak, and daytime/orographic heating over the Serranias del Burro mountains in northern Mexico are tracking for a familiar evolution of isolated supercells forming mid- afternoon, then moving east and their cold pools merging to form an MCS that will sweep across South Central or Deep South Texas tonight. Rain's picking up in Mexico again... but we don't know if it's gonna rain around here, so we'll be safe and say... well at least it'll be cloudy today... and could rain. Quote Coarser resolution synoptic models (GFS/Euro/NAM) indicate that likelihood, and if you put on a "fuzzy/neighborhood" filter, the HRRR and TTech WRF would indicate something similar - just don`t get focused on specific timing and location. Just sent an update to all grid, graphic, and text products to reflect this forecast thinking. A special note to anyone with outdoor plans this evening and overnight - do not be lulled by the lack of activity during the day and early evening. Monitor the weather and have a safety plan including shelter in a sturdy building if storms approach. Our models say... it might... and it might not. Then we ran some more localized models... and they said the same thing. So, nobody knows if it's gonna rain. But it could. So watch for rain tonight. Or not. -- (to defend them a little, this is a very tough forecast map... lotsa little disturbances tracking through Texas, no big low... lotsa frontal boundaries/troughs near us, atmosphere is very irregularly stabilized (due to "raining out" and evening the air mixture, but there are places where turbulence/storms could pop up. There'a a lotta shit floating around up there and the weather dynamics of this are very haphazard... really tough conditions as opposed to clear low, dry line, etc.)So my guess is that things will stay dry most of the day, and this next little twist in the atmosphere is gonna go by later today. Depending on how much sun or at least warm air gets mixed with cold updrafts along a frontal or trough boundary will tell where the rain happens. I think we'll get some lift today and somewhere in this area will be rainy (probably not severe) weather between say 4 and midnight - 1-2 inches in heavier spots, up to an inch in lighter. That's what I think, anyway.
May 3, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, TXLNGHRN10 said: Are we done ? Is that it? Things your wife said last night?
May 3, 20196 yr Yeah, there is a tornado warning just west if where I am and it appears it’s going to move just north of me. Hopefully.
May 3, 20196 yr If you are in Tomball/Spring, this thing looks bad. Headed straight for my in-laws place.
May 3, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said: If you are in Tomball/Spring, this thing looks bad. Headed straight for my in-laws place. Yep been watching the news. Headed right at Spring
May 3, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said: Yep been watching the news. Headed right at Spring My inlaws live in spitting distance of the TIAH radome, which it is headed straight for. (at Hooks).
May 3, 20196 yr 4 hours ago, Longhorn Al said: Came across this today browsing the Texas Portal to History: May 4, 1922 At Longview Park in South Austin, there is a fenced off family plot with a mother Sarah and daughter Ava Bargsley, who both died died in that tornado. The mystery of the Bargsley family plot https://www.austin360.com/article/20150829/ENTERTAINMENT/308299766 This mystery begins in a graveyard. Amid a grove of junipers in a Southwest Austin park sits a family plot guarded by a high mesh fence. Four legible stones stand among the rubble. Three of the same family design — decorated with bas-relief garlands — face the trail. “Father: John Bargsley: March 13, 1828-Oct. 13 1904.” “Mother: Sarah Bargsley: Sept. 2, 1834-May 4, 1922.” “Ada Lena Bargsley: July 6, 1877-May 4, 1922.” Why did family members of different generations die on the exact same day? During one of their frequent trips to Longview Park, Kevin Davis, who lives nearby, noted the death dates to his wife, historian Chantal McKenzie. They drew no conclusions. Later, however, McKenzie was browsing through the Austin History Center website when she ran across an arresting picture: In harrowing grays, a funnel cloud swirls around the dome of the State Capitol. The date for the tornado: May 4, 1922. Did the Bargsleys die in the double tornado that killed 13 people on that day, McKenzie wondered. I must admit that, aside from the famous image of the Capitol, I knew almost nothing about the city’s deadliest tornado. Time for an always-welcome trip to the history center. Preserved there is Frederic William Simonds’ 24-page “The Austin, Texas, Tornadoes of May 4, 1922,” published in the University of Texas Bulletin for Feb. 15, 1923. Simonds was a professor of geology who witnessed the more westerly of the two twisters. “About four o’clock, the writer was suddenly summoned from home,” Simonds writes, “a block and a half north of the campus of the University of Texas ... by excited shouts directing his attention to an unusual cloud display in the north. Reaching the street, he saw in a direction west of north, a quickly advancing, dark and threatening mass of storm clouds which pended a rapidly whirling funnel so characteristic of tornadoes.” Simonds calmly, chillingly records their paths. The first touched down in four places, starting six miles north of Austin near Spicewood Springs, then a mile to the southwest. After that, it smacked the State Institute for Deaf, Dumb and Blind Colored Youths on Bull Creek Road between 38th and 45th streets. It finally belted the Deep Eddy recreational camp. Copious photographs published in the Bulletin — and others housed at the history center — show smashed buildings. One person died in the first tornado. The second tornado split off and raked the Texas State Cemetery in East Austin before bouncing in a “hit and miss” action over Travis Heights. It severely damaged three buildings on the St. Edward’s University campus, then destroyed businesses around Penn Field, including Woodward Manufacturing and a big water tower. It roared south to damage the school in the town of St. Elmo and the Hartkoff Dairy. “From appearances after the storm, a veritable rain of timbers, planks, splinters and roofing must have swept over the Post Road leading from Austin to San Antonio,” Simonds writes. “As automobile traffic on this highway is, as a rule, quite heavy, it is nothing short of miraculous that no lives were lost.” The tornado was not finished. “Two and a half miles southeast of Oak Hill, eight or more miles from its origins in Austin, the tornado completely destroyed the Bargsley home, causing the death of six persons,” he writes. “The violence of the storm at this point is shown by the fact that, of the house, scarcely a vestige remained, barring the stones used for the chimney. ... Visitors on the scene were amazed to find that even the fowls had been plucked of their feathers.” All told, the second twister killed 12 people, half of them at the Bargsley house. Today, one can explore Longview Park and the attached preserve to find stacked stone fences and other evidence of farming or ranching. A few small private ranches survive nearby, although the surrounding neighborhoods were developed as early as the 1970s. On May 5, 1922, headlines for the Austin Statesman read: “13 Dead, 44 Injured, Property Loss in Storm in Excess $700,000: Tornado Leaves a Trail of Ruin in its Path.” Remembering the paper’s response in a 1960 report, William J. Weeg said he was working at the Statesman offices at Eighth and Brazos streets. Managing editor E.J. Walthall, “was just fixing to leave when he saw the twister coming. He yelled, and we both got on the phones, calling the composing room crew and the stereotypers back to work and checking for information.” After reporting on Travis Heights damage, Weeg took other first-hand accounts by phone. On the front page back in 1922, the Statesman listed among the dead: “Miss Ada Bargsley, 46” and “Mrs. John Bargsley, Sr., 89.” The others who died at their home that day were “John Thompson, 26,” “Mrs. Alta Thompson, mother of John Thompson,” “Maria Kinchion, 70,” and, in a sad sign of the times, “Harper, girl, negress, 10.” Over the following decades, this newspaper published the living memories of survivors, including a story written by J. Frank Dobie and rendered in flinch-worthy dialect. Historian Mike Cox gave a clean account and interviewed experts for a 1970 newspaper article. “In 1922, Austin only had about 20,000 residents,” meteorologist David Barnes told Cox. “If you think what could have happened if that tornado had hit this year, the death rate might have easily been 10 times as great.” Now imagine that today. Here's a picture of the same tornado near the capitol:
May 3, 20196 yr Author 11 minutes ago, irishtexan said: “From appearances after the storm, a veritable rain of timbers, planks, splinters and roofing must have swept over the Post Road leading from Austin to San Antonio,” Simonds writes. “As automobile traffic on this highway is, as a rule, quite heavy, it is nothing short of miraculous that no lives were lost.” Accurate
May 3, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, irishtexan said: I don't live too far from there and went through the same discovery process a little over ten years ago after tromping through there and the nature preserve with my daughter, which was a regular weekend deal back then. Good times. Back then, the area was a Freeman's town (settled by freed black slaves) and was called Kincheonville. You'll note that one of the victims had the last name Kinchion (spelled differently in the article). The old street grid still forms part of the neighborhood west of Longview Park with the names of, I assume, the children of a Mr. Thomas Kinche(i)on. Street names: Thomas Kincheon Dalton Elija Blumie Minnie James Ander Dunn Whoever was the developer of the surrounding neighborhood must've been a real asshole (or possibly history buff), because many of those streets were named after Civil War events and plantations of the Old South. Harpers Ferry Clarksburg Galesburg Plantations Dunleigh (I'm assuming this was a mistake and was meant to be Dunleith Oak Alley Burnside
May 3, 20196 yr After that, it smacked the State Institute for Deaf, Dumb and Blind Colored Youths Geez Louise, reads like a Blazing Saddles skit. Edited May 3, 20196 yr by clapclapclap
May 3, 20196 yr 3 hours ago, Dewey said: Apparently La Grange got hit I drove through La Grange today and was at a full stop on 71 for about 45 minutes. Figured it was an accident. Tornado touched down no more that a few minutes before I would have driven straight through it. A couple buildings were completely destroyed. The crazy thing is that the damage was extremely localized - you can see in the picture that street signs a few hundred feet away from the building are undamaged. Hopefully no one was injured, but from the looks of things it would be hard to imagine that’s the case.
May 3, 20196 yr There was less cloud cover over that area the past 2 days, so it makes sense there was more heat to generate that tornado. About the only good news is that it was a small one. Oh well, spring in Texas is gonna do that. Next disturbance moving at us now, the line forming. Could get bumpy between now and midnight, small but strong localized storms. Hail not out of the question, tornado unlikely but not unpossible (as we saw today). Better than very good chance we all get wet in ATX by the end of the day. Next round coming in Mon or Tues. I love it more or less.
May 3, 20196 yr 2 hours ago, irishtexan said: The second tornado split off and raked the Texas State Cemetery in East Austin. “A company of cadets from Texas Agricultural and Mechanical College drove over to Austin to assist in rescue efforts, and recovered hundreds of bodies. Officials became alarmed when the enthusiastic cadets began bringing them skeletons.”
May 3, 20196 yr What is the best site to see those pixelated maps that show the wind speed/direction similar to the ones below? Or like the ones KXAN will show on tv, but I can't find on their site. 8 hours ago, UnivTex34 said: Edited May 3, 20196 yr by Longhorn Al
May 4, 20196 yr The southern boundary of the rain is just a bit south of us and doesn’t appear to be moving north but the orange and red blob appears plenty big to the west (and moving this is at). My spouse is freaking that our sons are planning on driving to a late night Endgame showing around 10.I’ve decided to drink.
May 4, 20196 yr https://texasstormchasers.com/2019/05/significant-flooding-ongoing-in-travis-hays-counties-including-austin/
May 4, 20196 yr Has to be water rescues going on, somewhere. Too much rain, too quickly.And too many dumb people.
May 4, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, Hate said: And too many dumb people. Unfortunately they breed faster than they drive into fast moving waters.
May 4, 20196 yr I am beyond feeling sorry for people trying to go through low water crossings during these events.
May 4, 20196 yr 5 hours ago, UnivTex34 said: Died out, became a blob. That’s how William The Conqueror went out. Edited May 4, 20196 yr by HornsOverIthaca
May 4, 20196 yr 37 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said: Has to be water rescues going on, somewhere. Too much rain, too quickly. From da link: Numerous water rescues are already underway due to folks driving into high water. We’ve heard of at least one vehicle swept away. A Folkswagen? The LCRA has begun flood operations at the Tom Miller Dam due to rapidly rising water levels on Lake Austin. Edited May 4, 20196 yr by clapclapclap
May 4, 20196 yr Somehow we managed to go through a severe storm today without losing power, but no with no wind or rain we have lost power. Fuck you Centerpojnt!!!
May 4, 20196 yr Checking in from Driftwood and well, wood is drifting all over the yard. Only lost power once so far, PEC has made progress . I think.
May 4, 20196 yr 2 hours ago, Longhorn Al said: What is the best site to see those pixelated maps that show the wind speed/direction similar to the ones below? Or like the ones KXAN will show on tv, but I can't find on their site. This is an app called RadarScope, works on phones, tablets, and computer
May 4, 20196 yr Any updates on Elgin/McDade situation are greatly appreciated. My mom is currently sheltering in the closet. Fuck tornados.
May 4, 20196 yr I’m in 78748, my rain gauge says 5.83 right now and still going up. Was raining at 6 inches per hour for a bit.
May 4, 20196 yr Any updates on Elgin/McDade situation are greatly appreciated. My mom is currently sheltering in the closet. Fuck tornados. Elgin should be fine. Just renewed the tornado warning just east of it.
May 4, 20196 yr My folks are tucked right in the middle of McDade and Paige. Shit is freaking me out.
May 4, 20196 yr My folks are tucked right in the middle of McDade and Paige. Shit is freaking me out. It looks like the worst part of it is just east of Paige.
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